Post-WW2 Germany without Soviet occupation

Midgard

So, let's posit a hypothetical scenario. For whatever reason, come 1945 the Western Allies beat the USSR to Berlin, while the Soviet troops do not manage more than relatively minor gains in Germany proper. The actual mechanics of how exactly that happened are not important, but let's presume the USSR is still around, still manages to take over its fair share of Eastern and Central Europe, but Germany is completely under Western Allied occupation.

The question is, what would be the fate of Germany in such a scenario? Would it still be divided, or would it be kept as one? What kind of territorial concessions might it have to give up? What is the future of this ALT-Germany down the line?
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
Wouldn't this violate Yalta? Even in OTL the Western Allies occupied some parts of what became East Germany and then evacuated according to the earlier agreement.
 

Midgard

Thande said:
Wouldn't this violate Yalta? Even in OTL the Western Allies occupied some parts of what became East Germany and then evacuated according to the earlier agreement.
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Hmm... perhaps the POD is at Yalta then, maybe Stalin's negotiating position is not as strong as OTL, and there is no provision on the status of Germany? I am just curious to see if Eastern Germany of OTL was pretty much inevitable, or what the alternatives to it could have been, presuming Allied victory in 1945.
 

Xen

Banned
Thande said:
Wouldn't this violate Yalta? Even in OTL the Western Allies occupied some parts of what became East Germany and then evacuated according to the earlier agreement.
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Maybe we can butterfly Yalta away and have more mistrust between the two sides (east and west)? Perhaps Stalin does something to piss the allies off really, really bad. There is no Yalta, and when it seems that Germany is going to lose, the German Army acts, arresting the leaders of the Nazi Party and making a seperate peace with the western allies.

Germany holds the Soviets to a stand still in the East, while American and British troops enter the capital. Stalin now fears he has to fight the United States, Germany and Great Britain so he makes his own peace with Germany. The borders Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact remains in tact with some changes in favor of the Soviet Union.

Eastern Europe is spared half a century of Soviet occupation and domination, and becomes capitalist Republics and Kingdoms instead. On the surface this seems good, but now we have a more paranoid Soviet Union with no buffer to avoid invasion from the west, armed with nuclear weapons and a "history" of betrayal by the west. The USSR might also fear the US and UK is incringing in the Soviet sphere. Can you say a more militaristic *cough* North Korea style *cough* Soviet Union, with a paranoid finger over the red button to launch its nukes.
 

Borys

Banned
The West didn't want to know. Neither the Commie loving Roosevelt, nor Churchil, the eternal opportunist.
Neither about the Genocide in Russia after 1918, nor the Holocaust in German occupied lands after 1940.

Borys
 

Xen

Banned
Borys said:
The West didn't want to know. Neither the Commie loving Roosevelt, nor Churchil, the eternal opportunist.
Neither about the Genocide in Russia after 1918, nor the Holocaust in German occupied lands after 1940.

Borys
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So! Perhaps a respectable US media outlet gets ahold of this tid bit of information and makes it public. The people become outraged and want to know if we are fighting the wrong dictator, however images of the holocaust are revealed by the US government to show the public Hitler is worse than Stalin (not by much) and the official position of the government is to keep the Soviets at a distance.
 

Borys

Banned
Meh! In the 30s the US allowed the formation of two battalions of aparatchics in training, potential NKVD torturers, and other criminal minds to Spain - the so-called Abrahm Lincoln Brigade. There they were combined with other such degenerates sent by their respective Party organisations.
They trained for their future roles in the US after a Communist takeover by torturing and murdering priests in Spain.
Did any major paper clamour for cutting of the flow of these scum to Spain?
Borys
 

Max Sinister

Banned
Hey Borys, watch your tone. "Criminals" and "scum"... even if you want to criticize that there could've been Communists among American volunteers, don't use insults like that.
 

Borys

Banned
Ahoj!
Oh, it was not my intention to single out American commie trash in this respect.
I consider these terms appropriate to ALL foreign volunteers to the Red side in the Spanish Civil War.
OK now?

Borys
 

Ian the Admin

Administrator
Donor
Borys said:
Ahoj!
Oh, it was not my intention to single out American commie trash in this respect.
I consider these terms appropriate to ALL foreign volunteers to the Red side in the Spanish Civil War.
OK now?

Borys
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I'm not going to even bother to count the different ways you've been trolling in this thread. Since you responded to a polite request not to be insulting by posting even broader flamebait, it's obvious your behavior isn't up to the standards expected of members of this board.

You're kicked for a week, during which you will be unable to post. Please make your contributions more constructive in the future.
 

Grimm Reaper

A modest territorial adjustment would be reasonable, bearing in mind that the borders were generally agreed to at Yalta, but how are you going to keep Stalin out of all Eastern Europe?:confused:
 

HurganPL

Banned
Since 1939 it was rather obvious to Britain and France that East Prussia would go, as well as most Upper Silesia to Poland in event of victory, the border on Odra was also largely accepted for defence reasons, the point was will the border be on Nysa Klodzka or Nysa Luzycka-or Lower Silesia.
Germany could count on keeping Lower Silesia and Szczecin but not much on anything more.
 

Tizoc

The question is, will USSR remove itself from Poland? Personally, I doubt they will during Stalin's life. Although it is possible that Poland would not be so throughly sovietised as in OTL - it will stay more like Chechoslovakia before Communist coup. And it is quite possible that after Stalins' death, in years 1953-6, USSR would decide that Poland is too much of a bother to keep it in its sphere of influence and may decide to finlandize it. But considering the 'love' of Polish population towards ruling communists (PZPR), said communists may end hangin'. What would USSR do? What would the West do?
 

DominusNovus

No, the question is what Midgard asked. Poor guy asks a question, and people start debating the parameters of the question, not the actual subject. We tend to do this a lot. I understand that the specifics do play some role, but could we maybe, just maybe, come up with a situation for postwar Germany, and then figure out what works and doesn't?

Not may area of expertise, but...

No Berlin wall, no Berlin airlift. Berlin instead of Hamburg possibly the capital. Depending on how far the Russians get, I imagine the German-Polish border to be roughly the same. Germany would be in a far better economic position, of course. Perhaps because of this, the wester allies split the state up themselves, into two or three republics. I think thats been suggested before.
 

Susano

Banned
HurganPL said:
Since 1939 it was rather obvious to Britain and France that East Prussia would go, as well as most Upper Silesia to Poland in event of victory, the border on Odra was also largely accepted for defence reasons, the point was will the border be on Nysa Klodzka or Nysa Luzycka-or Lower Silesia.
Germany could count on keeping Lower Silesia and Szczecin but not much on anything more.
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Yeah, most plans for post-war Germany during the war had Germany losing Eats Prussia, Upper Silesia and the remniants of Posen and West Prussia. So, such a Germany would keep Pommern, the Neumark (the part of Brandenburg west of the Neiße) and Lower Silesia.


DominusNovus said:
I meant Bonn, my mistake. I always mix that up.
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Err... Mixing up Bonn and Hamburg?:confused:
 
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