(Possible) Timeline Idea: French East Indies (i.e. Philippine Islands)

[Tredecimus]

There is a thread about this last year, and I don't want to necro so...

Rereading some bits of French history, this idea suddenly become interesting to me. So I wanted to gather ideas from you guys on any possible PODs for this scenario. It's a stretch, probably, but I don't think this idea is outright ASB.

So, what are the possible PODs for France to get (and hold) the entire Spanish East Indies (or at least, most of the Philippine Archipelago) until at least the 20th century?

 

[The Tai-Pan]

ASB means magic, not unlikely.

 

[Tredecimus]

^ I think so too.

My first idea is for France to buy the colony from Spain around the 1700s. Another one is that Spain and France did unite under a single crown, at least for a short time, then afterwards some treaty will transfer the Philippines from Spain to France.

Anymore ideas?

 

[Tanc49]

After Dupleix and the 7YW, the French drew several plans to get back colonies in the area, as it was considered strategic. However, due to the richness of the islands, I don't think the Spanish would sell, not willingly.

So, around the end of the XVIIIth century, is there a moment where France could have forced Spain to cede the Philippines to them? Well, yes, they did get invaded.

Say Napoleon goes for a peace settlement with Spain after the invasion, taking the Philippines, or at least rights to it. It could be in character as he always wanted to strike at India.

You want to go for a wank? The French crown backs the expedition to liberate Vietnam from the Tay Son rebellion, French get ports, French invade the Philippines to make the South China Sea a French sea.

 

[Tredecimus]

After Dupleix and the 7YW, the French drew several plans to get back colonies in the area, as it was considered strategic. However, due to the richness of the islands, I don't think the Spanish would sell, not willingly.

But considering it's a backwater compared to the Americas, maybe Spain never considered the Philippines that special. Well they just conquered it primarily to be a conduit to China, anyways, aside from their so-called evangelical duty.

How about some other powers conquering it and then transfer it to France?

 

[Tanc49]

But considering it's a backwater compared to the Americas, maybe Spain never considered the Philippines that special. Well they just conquered it primarily to be a conduit to China, anyways, aside from their so-called evangelical duty.

How about some other powers conquering it and then transfer it to France?

TBH I don't know enough about Spanish colonial history. I do know the French and Spanish were allies in the XIXth century in the region (the first Indochina invasion was a joint-op) but more than that...
Funny thing, the evangelical duty mantle was taken up by France in the XIXth century as well.

Other power conquering it in that time period? The only power with the might and possible will is the Brits and they sure won't give anything to the French.

 

[Tredecimus]

Other power conquering it in that time period? The only power with the might and possible will is the Brits and they sure won't give anything to the French.

Unless they get the rest of Canada. Probably.

 

[Tocomocho]

I could swear one of the partition treaties preceding the Spanish War of Succession had the Philippines being separated from the rest of the colonies and ceded to France. But I'm googling and finding nothing. Other than that, I can't think of a likely scenario without a drastically altered history.

EDIT: Oh. Here it is:

[Under the First Treaty of Partition (1698)] the kingdoms of Spain (with the exceptions detailed next), the Indies and the duchy of Milan, Sardinia, the Canaries and the Balearics would be left under the rule of the [Holy Roman] emperor, while the Spanish Low Countries, the Franche-Comté, the Philippines, the kingdom of Navarre, Roses [in Girona], the colonial presidiums in North Africa and the kingdoms of Naples and Sicily would pass to France.

From Albareda Salvadó, Joaquim (2010). La Guerra de Sucesión de España (1700-1714).

This deal was rejected by the Spanish Crown because, let's face it, it fucking sucks and cuts up the Spanish Empire with no logic but the particular imperial ambitions of France and Austria. But maybe a more subdued version could be worked from that.

 

[Tanc49]

I could swear one of the partition treaties preceding the Spanish War of Succession had the Philippines being separated from the rest of the colonies and ceded to France. But I'm googling and finding nothing. Other than that, I can't think of a likely scenario without a drastically altered history.

This deal was rejected by the Spanish Crown because, let's face it, it fucking sucks and cuts up the Spanish Empire with no logic but the particular imperial ambitions of France and Austria. But maybe a more subdued version could be worked from that.

That would be a potential PoD if they cared about actually occupying it. Problem with France is that they have to defend the home front with a land army and can't really divert that many resources to colonial endeavours. That's why Dupleix started his program of allying with local princes. That's also why Nouvelle-France didn't have enough people. La ligne bleue des Vosges is the important thing.

For example, the French were supposedly owning Madagascar from really early but never did much there. However, the Philippines are another story given it's already a colony, I'll give you that. But basically what I'm saying is that France is a European power. It's only much later that they tried actively to be a colonial one, incidentally when they thought they'd be out of troubles in Europe for a bit. But even then, it was done sneakily, mostly by Ferry

 

[Tredecimus]

The Philippines is a self-sustaining colony, so no need to send so many troops there. Spain managed to control it with just a handful of regiments for 3 centuries. You just need loyal natives to do most of the job.

Even the British, despite occupying Manila at one point, find it difficult to advance inland because of this.

@Tocomocho: Nice find!

 

[funnyhat]

EDIT: Oh. Here it is:

[Under the First Treaty of Partition (1698)] the kingdoms of Spain (with the exceptions detailed next), the Indies and the duchy of Milan, Sardinia, the Canaries and the Balearics would be left under the rule of the [Holy Roman] emperor, while the Spanish Low Countries, the Franche-Comté, the Philippines, the kingdom of Navarre, Roses [in Girona], the colonial presidiums in North Africa and the kingdoms of Naples and Sicily would pass to France.

This is from 1698? I ask because Spain had already ceded the Franche-Comté to France 20 years earlier, at the end of the Dutch War.

 

[kasumigenx]

I could swear one of the partition treaties preceding the Spanish War of Succession had the Philippines being separated from the rest of the colonies and ceded to France. But I'm googling and finding nothing. Other than that, I can't think of a likely scenario without a drastically altered history.

EDIT: Oh. Here it is:



From Albareda Salvadó, Joaquim (2010). La Guerra de Sucesión de España (1700-1714).

This deal was rejected by the Spanish Crown because, let's face it, it fucking sucks and cuts up the Spanish Empire with no logic but the particular imperial ambitions of France and Austria. But maybe a more subdued version could be worked from that.

I think the Spanish might accept ceding it if it loses both Luzon, Mindanao and Celebes to a revolt and mismanagement in the Late Mid 17th Century...that is very close to the POD

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

The Philippines is a self-sustaining colony, so no need to send so many troops there. Spain managed to control it with just a handful of regiments for 3 centuries. You just need loyal natives to do most of the job.

For every 1 Spaniard, there were about 10 natives protecting Philippine archipelago, and that was the reason Spanish colonial rule lasted until 1898 because of general loyalties among Indios to Spanish rulers. By around mid-18th century, Spanish colonial rule was already sealed off and most of the archipelago except parts of Mindanao and Cordilleras had already been pacified by Spaniards and Christianized natives.

Even the British, despite occupying Manila at one point, find it difficult to advance inland because of this.

The British haven't seen Manila's potential as a spring board for Chinese markets yet. They were just about to set foot in India that time, let alone East Asia.

 

[Tocomocho]

This is from 1698? I ask because Spain had already ceded the Franche-Comté to France 20 years earlier, at the end of the Dutch War.

Either the Spanish were still using the title despite having no actual control or the author fucked up.

 

[Tredecimus]

Anymore ideas?

 

[Tredecimus]

Nobody's interested, I guess.

 

[galanx]

Or there's just not that many possibilities, so you're going to have to pick one and get it going.

I have one possibility in mind, but it involves a POD back in the 1740s that won't come to fruition until the 1840s and involves so many changes before hand that I'd have to explain it at great length to get to where you want to be.

 

[Westphalian]

The biggest importance of the Philippines were their relative position to China. The flow of Peruvian Silver via Acapulco and Manila to Canton and the flow of Chinese goods via Manila. Acapulco and Veracruz towards Spain was huge, a real globalized trade. France can conquer the Philippines, but unless they gain Spanish america as well, they cannot take over the silver trade.

 

[Tredecimus]

The biggest importance of the Philippines were their relative position to China. The flow of Peruvian Silver via Acapulco and Manila to Canton and the flow of Chinese goods via Manila. Acapulco and Veracruz towards Spain was huge, a real globalized trade. France can conquer the Philippines, but unless they gain Spanish america as well, they cannot take over the silver trade.

Does the French have any interest in taking over the silver trade?

What if they decide to use the Indian Ocean route? This means they need a secure sea lane. Maybe an alliance with the Dutch?

 

[Westphalian]

Does the French have any interest in taking over the silver trade?

What if they decide to use the Indian Ocean route? This means they need a secure sea lane. Maybe an alliance with the Dutch?

I don't know of any French proposals to take over the silver trade. Establishing trade with China, well, that was very interesting, but the French would have not the most attractive stuff the Chinese will want. Control over trade routes is not as cool if you do not have what the guys on the other end of the route desire.

While the Spaniards, OTOH, will have it much harder to bring their silver to China.

So I can see any other power taking the Philippines from Spain in the three centuries before ~1820 as a hard blow to global trade. With no control over Manila and no comparable port in East Asia, Spain might even stop sending the galleons.