Plausibility Check- Polynesian colonization of the Galapagos?

[SinghKing]

As in the title- looking to start an ATL where Polynesian settler canoes arrive in the Galapagos Archipelago, and begin colonizing the region- ideally, at around the same time as the Polynesian settlement of New Zealand (also around the time that we have genetic evidence of interbreeding between the Rapa Nui peoples of Easter Island and those of South America- 1300's). Here's a relatively useful map, displaying the currents in the Pacific Ocean...

So, does the Polynesian (and/or native American hybrid culture- Chono, Mapache or Cunco?)- discovery, settlement and colonization of the Galapagos Archipelago seem plausible enough? After all, according to one of the foremost experts on this topic- Dr Anna-Sapfo Malaspinas of the Natural History Museum of Denmark in Copenhagen, the lead author of the recent genetic study- "It seems more likely that the Rapanui successfully made the trip back and forth, given simulations presented in previous studies showing that all sailing voyages heading intentionally east from the island would always reach South America, with a trip lasting from two weeks to approximately two months,” Dr Malaspinas said. “On the other hand, the trip from the continent to Easter Island is much more challenging, which would have made it likely to fail or miss the island completely.”

Which would have been true- if they went back the way that they came, setting a return course directly to Easter Island (as they presumedly did IOTL, making these trade expeditions too hit-and-miss to become/remain profitable enough to continue over a long term period). However, looking at the Pacific currents, it appears that colonial settlement in the Galapagos would actually be perfectly placed to circumvent this issue and establish a proper trade route which follows the trade winds and currents in the Pacific all the way- from Rapa Nui to Araucania, then up along the coastlines of OTL's Chile and Peru (following the Humboldt current) to the Galapagos; then back across the Pacific (following the South Equatorial Current) to Nuku Hiva (the Marquesas Islands, in PD French Polynesia- the point of origin for the earlier Polynesian migrations to both Hawaii and Rapa Nui), and from there back home to Rapa Nui- or Hawaii, for that matter. Or, indeed, onwards to pretty much any other place in Polynesia.

IMHO, the Galapagos looks like the single strategically located archipelago which could have facilitated wholesale Polynesian colonialism into the Americas (and led to a proper 'Polynesian Exchange', between the American and Austronesian Hemispheres, analogous to OTL's Columbian Exchange, but commencing around 100yrs earlier); and given the ocean currents and trade winds, it isn't too hard to envision the Galapagos Archipelago being discovered by chance and subsequently being settled in an ATL. What do you think?

 

[Zuvarq]

It definitely sounds plausible. One aspect of the trade winds that would help continued contact (but hurt the growth of a permanent Galapagos settlement) is that it would be easier to return west than it was to sail the initial voyage east.

Here's a map of the trade winds (the other map is of water temperature currents):

If the Polynesians discover South America and visit frequently, it's likely the Galapagos would remain an outpost, somewhat overlooked. As the western Pacific islands become more isolated but the eastern Pacific islands retain the tradition of sailing far from shore, Polynesian/Andean settlers would concentrate in the Galapagos islands.

 

[SinghKing]

It definitely sounds plausible. One aspect of the trade winds that would help continued contact (but hurt the growth of a permanent Galapagos settlement) is that it would be easier to return west than it was to sail the initial voyage east.

Here's a map of the trade winds (the other map is of water temperature currents):

If the Polynesians discover South America and visit frequently, it's likely the Galapagos would remain an outpost, somewhat overlooked. As the western Pacific islands become more isolated but the eastern Pacific islands retain the tradition of sailing far from shore, Polynesian/Andean settlers would concentrate in the Galapagos islands.

Thanks for the map- but I'm not sure about the conclusion. After all, you could say much the same about the growth of European settlements in the Americas, due to the difficulty of sailing the initial voyage west (against the Gulf Stream). Easter Island/ Rapa Nui isn't actually marked on it; if it were, it would be situated roughly due south from the tip of Baja California, and due west from the southern borders of Paraguay. That's just South-East enough in the Pacific for the eastward trade winds to dominate there; effectively, in this regard, Rapa Nui can be viewed as the Polynesian equivalent of the Canary Islands or Cape Verde.

Also worth mentioning- if the Galapagos is settled by the Polynesians, enabling the formation and establishment of these trade routes, you'd probably have far more interconnection between Polynesia as a whole. Perhaps even enough to form their own Thalassocratic Empires, akin to those of the Melanesian in the Spice Islands. And Rapa Nui isn't the only place from which they could have colonized the Americas. A direct connection from New Zealand is possible, sailing with the "roaring forties". In 1834, some escapees from Tasmania, via New Zealand, made it to Chiloe Island on a small brig (manned only by the ten of them) after sailing for only 43 days. Based on contemporary accounts of Polynesian canoes' sailing speed relative to European ships of that time, we can infer that the Maori (or Moriori) could have theoretically made that journey from New Zealand in only a month. So, if the word filters through to them about the vast, bountiful land of plenty across the Pacific, then you could also envision them getting in on the action pretty easily.

 

[Prism]

It would definitely improve the Polynesians lot and probably help the Native Americans out in the long run. Especially for the Maori if they could the Andean crops. Who knows? Maybe even improve the Australian Aborigines lot a little.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Unfortunately, this would totally devastate the Galapagos ecology. Introduced animals and eating the local tortoises, for instance, would render the Galapagos something very different from the evolutionary showcase it was in Darwin's time, or even today to a slightly lesser extent.

 

[Imperator Maximilianius]

It would definitely improve the Polynesians lot and probably help the Native Americans out in the long run. Especially for the Maori if they could the Andean crops. Who knows? Maybe even improve the Australian Aborigines lot a little.

I'd say all that would create Mothra-sized butterflies.

 

[SinghKing]

Unfortunately, this would totally devastate the Galapagos ecology. Introduced animals and eating the local tortoises, for instance, would render the Galapagos something very different from the evolutionary showcase it was in Darwin's time, or even today to a slightly lesser extent.

Well, of course. It would be unavoidable. But the same things happened to the Hawaiian ecology and the New Zealandian ecology IOTL, along with several others across Polynesia and Melanesia. ITTL, the better crops which could be introduced from the Americas and the Andes could well enable these regions populations to better support their populations, and allow many of the other Polynesian islands to endure as greater evolutionary showcases ITTL than they are IOTL. So it wouldn't all be negative from an ecological POV.

 

[SinghKing]

I'd say all that would create Mothra-sized butterflies.

Indeed. With the newly established Polynesian trade routes booming, bringing back wealth and commodities from the Americas which would eventually start to filter back to the rest of the world via Melanesia and the Malay archipelago, might Zheng He be inclined to embark on a trade expedition to the East ITTL, thereby kicking off China's entry into the American colonial game ITTL? And even without the Chinese, or any other metalworkers, how much more advanced and organised could the native Americans be ITTL by the time that the Europeans arrive?

 

[Simreeve]

According to recent research (mentioned in New Scientist at some point in 2014, if I remember rightly), the pattern of ocean currents in the Pacific may have been a bit different for a while back then... thus explaining, for example, why the settlements of both Easter Island and New Zealand occurred when they did, rather than either earlier on or only later instead. However I'm not sure how this would have affected the likelihood of Polynesians reaching the Galapagos.