In the "No Spanish American War" thread, there was talk of the Japanese invading the Philippines if they were still held by Spain in 1905. It got me thinking--rather than an attack on Russia, what if Japan went to war with the United States over the Philippines in 1905? The USA had a precarious hold on the islands(constant guerrilla warfare) and didn't have a large fleet to defend the islands with. Then again, I don't know how much Japan had. So would it be possible, rather than a Russo-Japanese War, to get a Japanese-American War in 1905? What about a few years after 1905--if Japan decides they want both gains in Russia and the Pacific!(I don't know that much about Japanese militarism, so if this is ASB, yell at me angrily).
Plausibility Check: Invasion of the Philippines in 1905?
- Thread starter Leistungsfähiger Amerikan
- Start date
I Blame Communism
Banned
To attack Russia and America together would be ludicrously overconfident (remember that Japan won against Russia against all expectations by a lot of skill and a lot of luck as it was), and Britain would almost certainly disown them ("don't piss of America" had been one of our guiding lights since the ACW). Or rather, we would almost certainly warm them off.
Japan has no particular interest in the Phillipines, compared to Korea and Manchuria, anyway.
Japan has no particular interest in the Phillipines, compared to Korea and Manchuria, anyway.
I didn't so much mean at the same time, but say in 1908, after they had taken Korea and Manchuria.
Bill Cameron
Banned
LA,
I should think that the many issues in northeast Asia facing Japan are far more pressing and dangerous. There's Japan's "loss" of her "rightful" gains in the Sino-Japanese War, there's an expansionist Tsarist Russia, and there's Japan's long term interests in Korea.
Japan needs to settle her immediate neighborhood before looking further afield.
Bill
I should think that the many issues in northeast Asia facing Japan are far more pressing and dangerous. There's Japan's "loss" of her "rightful" gains in the Sino-Japanese War, there's an expansionist Tsarist Russia, and there's Japan's long term interests in Korea.
Japan needs to settle her immediate neighborhood before looking further afield.
Bill
going both directions at one isn't happening. One at a time is possible, but not particularly likely either. but a war with both russia and America is asking for trouble.
Around this time, the US has eleven pre-dreadnought battleships, plus texas, although some of those are outdated or not designed for ocean-going voyages. There are also ten Virginia and Connecticut class battleships (and two second-class Mississippi's) which would be launched by the end of 1905 (most of these took a while to enter commission IOTL, but wartime could accelerated this). However, these are divided between the atlantic and pacific fleets, and it will take time to combine them (the Panama canal being incomplete). finally, the South Carolina and Michigan were laid down in 1906, so a prolonged war may let them see service.
The Japanese, IIRC, have six battleships in service at the time, on a standard probably better than that of the American ships in commission. The first Japanese dreadnoughts, Satsuma and Aki, are under construction, but probably don't see service until around when the Americans do.
Grey Wolf
Donor
Japan can only take on the USA if the following conditions are met :-
-1- An agreement is reached to keep Russia happy, and this needs to be an agreement which Russia won't break at the earliest opportunity, but how you get one which doesn't involve Japanese loss of face over Korea I don't know
-2- That the war with the USA is the ONLY war - similar to the above, but -1- cannot be met by having Japan defeat Russia THEN turn on the USA as her economy simply cannot handle two wars of this magnitude in close succession
If the above conditions are met, then its POSSIBLE for Japan to take on the USA over the Philippines. The US may have a larger fleet in total, but its certainly not all sitting in the Pacific.
What the Japanese need to do is land forces in N Luzon at the same time as attacking the US squadron at Manila - basically the same as what they did against the Russians in 1904.
They then need to win the war before the US sends its reinforcements - remember that against the Russians this is more or less what they did, so that by the time the second Russian battlefleet arrived in the Straits of TsuShima, there was no longer a Russian army at Port Arthur to relieve
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
-1- An agreement is reached to keep Russia happy, and this needs to be an agreement which Russia won't break at the earliest opportunity, but how you get one which doesn't involve Japanese loss of face over Korea I don't know
-2- That the war with the USA is the ONLY war - similar to the above, but -1- cannot be met by having Japan defeat Russia THEN turn on the USA as her economy simply cannot handle two wars of this magnitude in close succession
If the above conditions are met, then its POSSIBLE for Japan to take on the USA over the Philippines. The US may have a larger fleet in total, but its certainly not all sitting in the Pacific.
What the Japanese need to do is land forces in N Luzon at the same time as attacking the US squadron at Manila - basically the same as what they did against the Russians in 1904.
They then need to win the war before the US sends its reinforcements - remember that against the Russians this is more or less what they did, so that by the time the second Russian battlefleet arrived in the Straits of TsuShima, there was no longer a Russian army at Port Arthur to relieve
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
I Blame Communism
Banned
I'd have to check a book, but I believe that the Russians and Japanese were inching towards accomodation until Nicholas II came under the influence of colonialist hardliners who scoffed at Japan and wanted to take Korea as well as Manchuria. More sensible people at St.Petersburg appreciated Japan's security concern over the peninsula and were willing to draw a line at the Yalu.
Actually this is a very interesting idea, well the general idea of a Pacific War pre-WWI... in general is.
Despite superior American industries the lack of both decent long-range submarines and airpower in 1905 gives Japan far better odds than in 1941. Plus the recent appearance of Dreadnought and lack of a Panama Canal levels the playing field for the first year or so. Add to that no general war across the region and Japan's limited military-industrial might can be focused much more sharply.
Not too sure how such a limited (in global terms) war would play out, say the IJA seizes the Philippines within a month or two, smashing the Manila squadron (I'm assuming the USN's best ships wont be stationed in the colonies), then they'd focus on capturing Guam and any other American islands in the region. Here again if they're quick about it, the Japanese can really turn any proposed island hopping campaign into a dozen mini-Gallipolis due to the relatively primitive nature of amphibious warfare, though thats discounting their own troubles in seizing them.
After that, I haven't the foggiest clue how the American public and government would react to the swift loss of their Pacific holdings. I'd imagine war fever in such a scenario might die down if say the Marines are slaughtered attempting to liberate Guam or the Atlantic Fleet is smashed after crossing the globe. After all here controlling the seas will be down to battleships and commerce raiders, things the Japanese wont be terribly handicapped in, while also lacking million square miles of islands and jungle campaigns in need of resupply.
All this said were the Philippines a juicy enough target?
Despite superior American industries the lack of both decent long-range submarines and airpower in 1905 gives Japan far better odds than in 1941. Plus the recent appearance of Dreadnought and lack of a Panama Canal levels the playing field for the first year or so. Add to that no general war across the region and Japan's limited military-industrial might can be focused much more sharply.
Not too sure how such a limited (in global terms) war would play out, say the IJA seizes the Philippines within a month or two, smashing the Manila squadron (I'm assuming the USN's best ships wont be stationed in the colonies), then they'd focus on capturing Guam and any other American islands in the region. Here again if they're quick about it, the Japanese can really turn any proposed island hopping campaign into a dozen mini-Gallipolis due to the relatively primitive nature of amphibious warfare, though thats discounting their own troubles in seizing them.
After that, I haven't the foggiest clue how the American public and government would react to the swift loss of their Pacific holdings. I'd imagine war fever in such a scenario might die down if say the Marines are slaughtered attempting to liberate Guam or the Atlantic Fleet is smashed after crossing the globe. After all here controlling the seas will be down to battleships and commerce raiders, things the Japanese wont be terribly handicapped in, while also lacking million square miles of islands and jungle campaigns in need of resupply.
All this said were the Philippines a juicy enough target?
nbcman
Donor
Japan would have been bankrupted if they were to declare war. During the Russo-Japanese War, the Japanese received extensive loans from British and American sources. The Japanese would definitely not get loans from the US in a US-Japanese War. It would be very unlikely that the British would make loans to Japan either. So where is Japan going to get the money to pursue a war against a wealthy soon-to-be superpower? Plus, TR is President-so no quick surrender.
In the long run there are a few factors in nation morale that would allow the US to stay in the war much longer than Russia did OTL. So the US, if nothing else, can just lose the Philippines then storm the fleet over to Japan a la Plan Orange and take out the Japanese fleet by sheer numbers. Superior US industry would eventually win the war unless the Japanese are extremely successful.
In the short run the Japanese are going to have issues taking the Philippines. The US had the battleships Ohio (Maine-class), Wisconsin (Illinois-class) and Oregon (Indiana-class) stationed in Manila in 1905 with at least two armored cruisers, Cincinnati and Raleigh. The US battle-line could pull the same 15-knot speed the Japanese used at Tsushima and while generally slightly older, the US battleships had slightly heavier guns and could inflict a fair amount of damage on the Japanese fleet which collectively only has six battleships.
Admittedly the Philippines are going to fall, but the Japanese are going to be in for one hell of a fight, especially since any loss for Japan will proportionally be much worse than for the US.
In the short run the Japanese are going to have issues taking the Philippines. The US had the battleships Ohio (Maine-class), Wisconsin (Illinois-class) and Oregon (Indiana-class) stationed in Manila in 1905 with at least two armored cruisers, Cincinnati and Raleigh. The US battle-line could pull the same 15-knot speed the Japanese used at Tsushima and while generally slightly older, the US battleships had slightly heavier guns and could inflict a fair amount of damage on the Japanese fleet which collectively only has six battleships.
Admittedly the Philippines are going to fall, but the Japanese are going to be in for one hell of a fight, especially since any loss for Japan will proportionally be much worse than for the US.
Hmm, so I'm thinking of a POD to get rid of the Russo-Japanese war. Perhaps no Anglo-Japanese alliance leads the Japanese to be more unsure about their ability to take on Russia without France or Germany intervening. After the Triple Intervention, the Japanese felt isolated, and without British aid, did not want to turn against Europe. Instead they make a diplomatic push and agree to a Russian sphere of influence in Manchuria while keeping their sphere in Korea. The diplomatic push is also aimed at getting better relations with France and Germany, who agree to give Japan loans. 1905 comes along, Japan has the money and the secure borders to start a war with the USA. Possible?
?How about this?
1896
Triple Intervention contains provision giving Japan a Protectorete ove Korea and Russian a Protectorete over Manchuria
1897
A suprise attack by the Cubans devestates the Spanish forces, and almost all the island is in Rebel hands.
Early 1898
Spanish give up and recognize Cuban Independence.
Late 1898
Political problems in Spain, are expatiated by the Defeat in Spain.
Agguillio in the Philippines expands his Independence movement due to seeing Cuba win.
1901
Spanish Civil War.
1902
Agguillio declares Independence with himself as first President
1904
Spanish Civil War Ends
Facing a devastated Economy and continuing War in the Pacific, Spain accepts Japan's offer, and sells Spanish Pacific.
1905
Japan Sends Major Forces to invade The Philippines and put down Agguillio's Independence Movement.
No Russian War
I Think it more likely that this is a German Invade Philippine Time Line, But after I went back and added the 1896 entry, it worked for the Japanese.
1896
Triple Intervention contains provision giving Japan a Protectorete ove Korea and Russian a Protectorete over Manchuria
1897
A suprise attack by the Cubans devestates the Spanish forces, and almost all the island is in Rebel hands.
Early 1898
Spanish give up and recognize Cuban Independence.
Late 1898
Political problems in Spain, are expatiated by the Defeat in Spain.
Agguillio in the Philippines expands his Independence movement due to seeing Cuba win.
1901
Spanish Civil War.
1902
Agguillio declares Independence with himself as first President
1904
Spanish Civil War Ends
Facing a devastated Economy and continuing War in the Pacific, Spain accepts Japan's offer, and sells Spanish Pacific.
1905
Japan Sends Major Forces to invade The Philippines and put down Agguillio's Independence Movement.
No Russian War
I Think it more likely that this is a German Invade Philippine Time Line, But after I went back and added the 1896 entry, it worked for the Japanese.
Bill Cameron
Banned
LA,
I believe DuQuense's suggestion is a good place to start. Simply butterflying away the Russo-Japanese War isn't enough. The strategic situation in northeast Asia needs to be settled enough for Japan to start looking further afield and that means Russia needs to be dealt with.
Japan cannot trust Russia to heed a treaty or agreement that nation makes with Japan alone. Like every other European power of the period, Russia will abrogate, break, forcibly renegotiate, or flat out ignore any agreement or treaty it makes with a non-European nation almost before the ink is dry. Any settlement of the geopolitical situation in northeast Asia that constrains Russia must either be the result of a Russian defeat or part of a larger agreement involving other European powers.
If a settlement includes the other powers in some fashion, Russia will be far more hesitant to break and/or renegotiate it.
I also think that DuQuesne's idea about Japan invading an independent or semi-independent Philippines is worth further examination.
The decision by the US to hold onto the Philippines as a colony was a near run thing. Many prominent people both inside and outside of government spoke against it. Imagine that the Teller Amendment either included the Philippines or was they were later added to it. A Philippine national government under Aguinaldo comes into existence with both US assistance and the usual strings, i.e. the Platt Amendment. The usual separatist movements kick off, i.e. Moros etc., the Aguinaldo government handles them with marginal competence, i.e. like many post-colonial nations, and Japan sees an opportunity to "go fishing".
The war would initially involve Japan and the Philippines, with the US entering to help their clients.
Bill
I believe DuQuense's suggestion is a good place to start. Simply butterflying away the Russo-Japanese War isn't enough. The strategic situation in northeast Asia needs to be settled enough for Japan to start looking further afield and that means Russia needs to be dealt with.
Japan cannot trust Russia to heed a treaty or agreement that nation makes with Japan alone. Like every other European power of the period, Russia will abrogate, break, forcibly renegotiate, or flat out ignore any agreement or treaty it makes with a non-European nation almost before the ink is dry. Any settlement of the geopolitical situation in northeast Asia that constrains Russia must either be the result of a Russian defeat or part of a larger agreement involving other European powers.
If a settlement includes the other powers in some fashion, Russia will be far more hesitant to break and/or renegotiate it.
I also think that DuQuesne's idea about Japan invading an independent or semi-independent Philippines is worth further examination.
The decision by the US to hold onto the Philippines as a colony was a near run thing. Many prominent people both inside and outside of government spoke against it. Imagine that the Teller Amendment either included the Philippines or was they were later added to it. A Philippine national government under Aguinaldo comes into existence with both US assistance and the usual strings, i.e. the Platt Amendment. The usual separatist movements kick off, i.e. Moros etc., the Aguinaldo government handles them with marginal competence, i.e. like many post-colonial nations, and Japan sees an opportunity to "go fishing".
The war would initially involve Japan and the Philippines, with the US entering to help their clients.
Bill
DuQuense's TL doesn't have the USA involved, but otherwise your right on all accounts. If the Philippines are a client state of the USA rather than a full-fledged colony, I don't think there will be as large an army in the area, since they are not trying to stop a rebellion like OTL. I could see it as the station of the American Asiatic squadron though, since it would be a convenient spot to place it. So the Japanese strike at the American fleet at invade the islands, which would still probably anger the American public. Was the American dislike of Japanese prevalent at this time? I know before WWII, there was something along the lines of 'yellow peril'. Otherwise, I wonder how much support in the USA a war would have?
Keenir
Banned
so what if there is no loss? (either through Japan being victorious in that field, or simply no Sino-Japanese War?)
Bill Cameron
Banned
Keenir,
There are still all the other geo-political concerns I listed like an expanding Russia, Korea, and the rest.
Japan simply must settled her closer strategic concerns before she begins a colonial adventure nearly 2,000 miles away.
Bill
It's Aguinaldo.
And I dunno about Japan buying the Philippines, won't the US try to buy it? And if Spain ultimately decides to sell it to the Japanese, I won't be surprised if the US attempts to use force to gain the Philippines.
well, Japan could, during the Philippine Insurrection, perhaps try to secrelty arm & support Aguinaldo's nationalist forces fightin the Americans, as part of their overall strategy. Hmmm, WI Jap agents also tried to subvert Buffalo Soldiers stationed in the Philippines by playin the race card to try to get more renegade black soldiers like David Fagan ? The US armed forces would also defntly need to be fully shaken out of their small war mentality, since a war against Japan over the Phillipines & Guam would be requiring the US to engage in a truly total war-oriented regional conflict pre-WWI.
Well, the conduct of the war itself would be markedly different from WWII, in the sense that there'd be no IJA atrocities such as the Bataan Death March, as evidenced by how OTL Russian POWs taken during the RJW were well-treated- though, under TR, & with the Yellow Press in full swing, war fervour against Japan would still very much be fever-pitch.
Well, the conduct of the war itself would be markedly different from WWII, in the sense that there'd be no IJA atrocities such as the Bataan Death March, as evidenced by how OTL Russian POWs taken during the RJW were well-treated- though, under TR, & with the Yellow Press in full swing, war fervour against Japan would still very much be fever-pitch.
Keenir
Banned
uh-huh....then how did Germany and France manage to take a good chunk of the Pacific while at one another's throats and while threatened by neighbors all around ??
I Blame Communism
Banned
But they weren't. This is a myth, part of the back-projection of emnity which is perhaps the most basic nationalist distortion. Germany and France got on reasonably between 1871 and some point in the 20th C (there was a British caricature map dates 1898-1900 or thereabouts which has them teaming up), with the only really dark cloud being the Boulangist crisis, which was blown out of proportion by Bismarck anyway since he needed to pretend that his hands were tied and he couldn't check Russia in the Bulgarian crisis, thus making Britain do it and allowing him to look the "honest broker" to both Austria and Russia.
Bismarck's European policy was deliberately designed to keep on failry good terms with everyone by playing them all off, and his acquisition of colonies was, insofar as it was foreign and not domestic policy, part and parcel of these calculations. It certainly wasn't like France and Germany were in a mexican stand-off: I believe, in fact, that there was a point in 1890s when the standing of France and Russia was better, compartively, than in 1914, and yet there was no war because there was no reason for a war.
Whereas Japan is an emerging power, and even her ally Britain underestimates her. She has a huge interest in Korea going back to the start of the Meiji Restoration, and feels hugely threatened by Russian influence there. Korea is definately a much bigger concern than the Phillipines.
The Japanese did war, but they weren't going to win against a (Germano-)Franco-Russian alliance, and the Russians weren't going to accept Japanese influence in Manchuria (they had tremendously ambitious plans for China). No Sino-Japanese war butterflies everything.