Ole Miss riot of 1962 - Wikipedia
This all sounds absolutely bonkers. Well, what if the Mississippi state troopers really had launched an assault and massacred the federal marshals?
Ole Miss Riot of 1962 turns into full-scale insurrection
- Thread starter Strategos' Risk
- Start date
This all sounds absolutely bonkers. Well, what if the Mississippi state troopers really had launched an assault and massacred the federal marshals?
Would it have been ordered by Governor Barnett?Ole Miss riot of 1962 - Wikipedia
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This all sounds absolutely bonkers. Well, what if the Mississippi state troopers really had launched an assault and massacred the federal marshals?
Sounds like those troopers were going to just do it themselves until talked down by the Lt. Governor.
Given that this thread posits "what if things got so bad that the federal government treats Mississippi in a state of rebellion," yeah Barnett would either have to be actually acting seditiously or giving the appearance of doing so to cause a massive reaction
ValaisBlacknose
Banned
Thread title implies the governor joining in which doesn't seem the case. Worst case scenario here would be a Waco type situation. Except since this is the 1960s and the people in charge on one side are college educated high class students and on the other are actual soldiers who have been trained well and likely by WW2 vets up to some having served in Korea there is a much better chance for de-escalation and negotiation instead of burning kids because the feds are butthurt.
Also reconstructionist fetishism is really creepy.
Also reconstructionist fetishism is really creepy.
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Actual state troopers and outside agitators (General Edwin Walker and Klansmen of Imperial Wizard Robert Shelton) were also involved.
boo hoo to the Lyceum would-be lynch mobs
ValaisBlacknose
Banned
Without specific details on how and where the extra parties were we can't know how it could have gone. Were they close enough to join imediatly? Or were they just nearby and far enough that the feds already would have closed lines and setup a perimeter?
Your second point is whataboutism. Reconstruction fetishists are creepily obcessed with destroying the US South as a people.
Agreed, the governor isn't likely to join in and call for armed rebellion against the federal government. However, things could have gotten out of control way worse than Waco.
If Wikipedia is correct, then a group of Mississippi state troopers were ready to join the ongoing assault on the Lyceum, where the remaining federal agents (US marshals, patrolmen and federal prison guards), Deputy Attorney General Nicholas Katzenbach, James Meredith and reporters were holed up, and had to be talked out of it by Lieutenant Governor Paul B. Johnson Jr.
Johnson later stated that most likely the remaining federal agents would have been overwhelmed had he not intervened and Captain Murry Falkner, among the first troops to arrive at the scene, stated that even in OTL the defenders of the Lyceum were in dire straits when reinforcements arrived and wouldn't have hold out for much longer.
If they are right, the worst case IMO would have looked something like this:
- Paul B. Johnson Jr. fails to intervene for some reason and Mississippi state troopers join the assault on the Lyceum and overwhelm the defenders
- numerous federal agents as well as state troopers die as both sides use live ammunition (shots had already been fired at this point in OTL, weapons were hidden on campus and if the state troopers and other armed rioters are attacking them the besieged federal agents will use deadly force), at the very least James Meredith is lynched, possibly several reporters are killed and if things go really bad James Katzenbach is killed as well
- now the situation were much looks like an insurrection as armed Mississippi state officials have attacked federal agents in support of armed rioters, killed federal agents and possibly killed as well as the Deputy Attorney General - all of this happening on live coverage; to make things worse this happens after Mississippi state officials judicially and otherwise had obstructed the federal governments for months in regards to the admission of Meredith, had withdrawn the state troopers earlier when the riot was getting worse, Governor Barnett had agreed to a request by Kennedy that state troopers would return to campus to quell the riot but they never did, and Governor Barnett was making broadcoasts stating that "We will never surrender!" (All of this OTL)
Even if the assault fails and the federal agents in the Lyceum hold out, the optics wouldn't be much better.
ValaisBlacknose
Banned
I would take anything Wikipedia says with a grain of salt
Almost all the sources for the page are from 30+ years after the fact and the contemporary ones both from around the place don't make it seem like it was as dangerous as it sounds.
However you make a good point about possible issues rising for a prolonged firefight. The issue would have been bad but the main reason I say it wouldn't have been worse than Waco is because of the context. Both sides are of similar force, fighting over a clear issue and they are both fighting age men.
I would think it would end up being a big shitshow yes, but eventually it would lead to a cease fire and no further battles would happen. Civil Rights would be delayed by as much as a decade but I don't see it surviving. No one wants a "American Troubles" over it. It might be possible that this leads to a 3rd side preaching "equal but unintegrated" as a compromise. It's possible the biggest consequences of such a firefight would be not on anything at the moment but years later when other political movements such as Weather Underground and Aryan Nation thinking that "if they could do it we can do it too".
Almost all the sources for the page are from 30+ years after the fact and the contemporary ones both from around the place don't make it seem like it was as dangerous as it sounds.
However you make a good point about possible issues rising for a prolonged firefight. The issue would have been bad but the main reason I say it wouldn't have been worse than Waco is because of the context. Both sides are of similar force, fighting over a clear issue and they are both fighting age men.
I would think it would end up being a big shitshow yes, but eventually it would lead to a cease fire and no further battles would happen. Civil Rights would be delayed by as much as a decade but I don't see it surviving. No one wants a "American Troubles" over it. It might be possible that this leads to a 3rd side preaching "equal but unintegrated" as a compromise. It's possible the biggest consequences of such a firefight would be not on anything at the moment but years later when other political movements such as Weather Underground and Aryan Nation thinking that "if they could do it we can do it too".
Kennedy has no other choice but to respond by fully deploying the US military to restore order and arrest the armed rioters. Now orders will still be to avoid civilian casualties and avoid further escalation as much as possible, but after armed rioters, joined by state troopers have killed federal agents and possibly the Deputy Attorney General, the US army will arrive armed, with ammunition and ready to defend itself against a possible ambush.
Behind the scenes Robert F. Kennedy will be issuing threats and screaming over the phone at every Mississippi state official involved in this mess and especially Governor Barnett. Since Barnett had no intention to escalate things to this degree and evidently thought that the White House was bluffing and that a show of force would make it fold, he will move as fast as humanly possible to cover his ass and try to de-escalate as much as possible, however by this point things are out of his hands.
If the riots hasn't petered out when the army arrives and the rioters are stupid enough to open fire - unlikely but possibly as they have already crossed the rubicon by killing federal officials - the we might be looking at the army either storming the campus to rescue any remaining but wounded federal agents and reporters or set up a siege of the campus.
How things play out politically would depend on a number of factors:
- Who will investigate the riot?
IOTL Senator James Eastland of Mississippi managed to squash an investigation by a Senate subcommittee and the Mississippi Legislature and a Lafayette County grand jury could conduct bullshit investigations blaming the federal government for the violence. Here, it is likely that both the FBI and the Senate will take point on the investigations and the whole story of Mississippi contributing to the violence by withholding the state troopers and making incendiary statement will come out
- How do the 1962 midterms look like?
IOTL the Kennedy resolving the Cuban Missile Crisis was much more important than the Ole Miss riot by election day, but here things might be different. There is little reason to think that the CMC would play out different but even so with a much bloodier riot and the US military forcefully invading the campus the riot would IMO loom much larger in the minds of Southern Whites come election day. If the southern whites and swing voters in general lose faith in Kennedy then more Southern house seats than IOTL and more Senate seats in general are in danger: in the South Alabama (Deepest South electing a Republican) was pretty close, in the rest of the country the OTL democratic wins in Connecticut, Indiana (Birch Bayh not elected), South Dakota (George McGovern not elected) and conceivable Pennsylvania are in danger, and if things go really badly then the seats of Oklahoma, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin might also be in danger - unlikely, but if Kennedy bungles the response somehow IMO possible. However, the images of rioters killing federal officials, the army restoring order, Kennedy presenting a calm and steady image throughout the crisis and then manages the CMC as in OTL then the Democrats might even pick up seats in the House but likely no additional Senate seats as Kentucky and Utah were the closest Republican wins, but were not that close.
- What will this do the civil rights enforcement in general?
Best case: Kennedy and the democrats weather the storm and comes out out it pretty well, the blame for the riot goes to Mississippi and Governor Barnett has to resign in disgrace. State officials in the South might move much more cautiously than IOTL, for example George Wallace might not even try to "Stand in the Schoolhouse Door". Civil rights enforcement goes ahead pretty much as IOTL, possibly even a bit faster than IOTL. However, in the South the white backlash happens earlier, race relations are a bit more strained and while state actors might refrain from violence, private citizens will likely be galvanized instead.
Worst case: Kennedy and the democrats lose badly in the midterms and this strengthens the convictions of the Kennedy administration that force has to be avoided as much as possible in regards to civil rights enforcement in the future in order to avoid a Second Ole Miss. Paradoxically, despite the army storming the campus and the rioters losing, the strategy of massive resistance seems to have worked. Civil rights and its enforcement are delayed by a couple of years and black militancy is strengthened if civil rights are delayed long enough.
The political repercussions of 1st) Mississippi state troopers killing federal agents, killing reporters, lynching Meredith and possibly killing the Deputy Attorney General and 2) the US army violently restoring order on campus, with possible use of deadly force being necessary, would make Waco look like a tempest in a teapot:
- Armed agents of a Southern state government have killed federal officials - in effect rebelling against the federal government, even if they are acting without orders
- Mississippi state officials before the riot obstructed federal law and federal efforts to enforce those laws effect by withholding the state troopers earlier and left federal agents without support (the IOTL situation)
- After this, how much can the federal trust Southern state agents? How much did Mississippi state officials, like Governor Barbett, Lieutenant Governor Paul B. Johnson Jr. and George Yarbrough - the guy who arranged to withdraw the state troopers at the beginning of the riot and who was connected to the Citizens Council movement - looked the other way during the riot or even knew beforehand? How much have the Citizens Council movement and other proponents of massive resistance infiltrated Southern state police agencies? How many other Southern police troopers would be willing to fire on federal agents or leave them to their fate if things get dicey in a future civil rights confrontation? When the next civil rights confrontation happens, will a federalized national guard have to be sent in from the beginning as the loyalty of state police is suspect?
Relations between the Kennedy White House and Southern state governments will be tense at the very least and longer lasting fissures between the Federal Governments and Southern state government officials and agencies are entirely possible.
Agreed, after order is restored at Ole Miss even in the worst case scenario of Kennedy bungling the aftermath there will be no further widespread fighting, however riots against "the feds invading Mississippi" in Mississippi and other Southern states are entirely possible.
Agreed, even in the worst case scenario civil rights will come sooner or later. However, if it looks like Massive Resistance ultimately carried the day (the feds restore order, but civil rights progress is halted for years), then the worst elements of Southern society will be emboldened, for example Wallace threatening a second Ole Miss during his "Stand in the Schoolhouse Door" instead of his IOTL tactic of putting on a public show while de-escalating with the White House behind the scenes, or Bull Connor escalating the violence during the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children's_Crusade_(1963). If things got bad enough, black militancy will be significantly strengthened.
While "American Troubles"are still unlikely, we could be looking at a much more violent 60s and early 70s, from the mid-60s onward, and significantly worse race relations.
If anything, both sides being of similar force, fighting over a clear issue and being composed of fighting age men makes things MORE likely to be deadlier than Waco.
I can easily see this leading to a second Civil War.
The one part that sounds fishy to me is "large weapons cache". Probably stuff like a lot of the members owning hunting rifles.
The riot was very serious - it caused two fatalies.
Paul Johnson was publicly a rabid segregationist but was more of a mixed bag on the down low. Certainly not as enlightened as John McKeithen or Earl Long. Mississippi State integrated without incident when he was governor (the first black student eventually returning as the director of the student health center).
I can't see it being as bad as a second civil war. Our collaborative timeline the Selma Massacre looks very plausible, however. Civil rights was going to happen, it appeared, television was making it inevitable that a Civil Rights bill would be passed. However I can see a lot of rumblings, just as in that timeline.
Guess the Southern apologist sockpuppet went bye-bye. "Reconstructionist fetishism" may be a dumb meme, but given recent events, perhaps Ole Miss should've been reconstructed in the '60s. And that's all I have to say on that subject.
I mean the massive problem is that even if you want another reconstruction you have to ask who is going to pay for it? There is a reason why the US did not just keep occupying the south OTL after the civil war and considering how much more developed the south is during the 60s you are looking at major economic and political disruptions even if its only on a single state.
Edit: Although I agree with everyone else that actually having another civil war is unlikely if not impossible and its far more likely that things deescalate, although there would still be repercussions for the situation.
Plus lets face it even if the US federal government goes hard on them, I doubt the majority of African Americans would want to stay even is say there were actively protected by the military. The whole great migration was already a thing and having increasing violence in the south is just going to make even more African Americans leave north. While civil rights would still happen the major increase in African Americans in northern cities is most likely going to massively increase white flight, along with an increase in anti-African American feelings in the area. With the rust belt and general decline in the area I can actually see some sort of solidarity between the south and rust belt states to an even greater degree that OTL.
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In the context of the OP premise maybe the state would receive some sort of indefinite martial law that lasts a couple of years, rather than actual neo-reconstruction. That said my statement snidely referring to recent happenings at Ole Miss the university itself, not the state. Which I will not discuss further, as it is not the province of this thread.
Though- maybe there is something to be said that the school's culture might not have improved as much as it could have since desegregation times. Maybe the institution should have received some sort of punishment for its violence. People actually died in OTL. If the attack had gone further as per OP, you have to imagine the university gets worse blame and punishment even if they weren't behind it. Actually, could the federal government also reconstruct the Mississippi State Troopers as well? Or the Mississippi Department of Public Safety, which oversees it? Which I see is located on E Woodrow Wilson Ave, amazing. The man was a Virginian who governed New Jersey, he has no ties to Mississippi lmao