No Pearl Harbor, Japanese Blitz through Southeast Asia

[Adam]

Let's say that the Japanese don't attack Pearl Harbor. Let's say that they instead focus on blitzing the 'defunct' colonies of Britain and Holland instead, that is Malaya, Dutch East Indies, Burma, India and the South Pacific islands. Let's say that this would take place a month before December 7.

Would they be successful? How would the United States react, short of declaring war?

 

[Flocculencio]

Let's say that the Japanese don't attack Pearl Harbor. Let's say that they instead focus on blitzing the 'defunct' colonies of Britain and Holland instead, that is Malaya, Dutch East Indies, Burma, India and the South Pacific islands. Let's say that this would take place a month before December 7.

Would they be successful? How would the United States react, short of declaring war?

Uh. How, precisely, would they "blitz" India? They'd have hideously extended supply lines across the horrible terrain of the Burmese jungles and India was by no means "defunct". What you'd have in this situation is the Japanese going up against an empire that hideously outnumbers them at the end of a long supply line.

They couldn't get past Burma in OTL and I doubt they would get much further in TTL.

Also, I don't think the Japanese can afford to avoid America. The trouble with the Phillippines is that the Americans could potentially use it as a base to cut the supply lines to and from SE Asia. That's why the Japanese felt they had to attack- they couldn't take the risk that the Americans might decide to take action and cut them off in the middle of their SE Asian blitz.

 

[merlin]

Pearl Harbor happened because japan couldn't take the risk of what the US would do. Couldn't take the risk (as has been mentioned) to her supply lines of what US forces from the Phillipines would do!

Yet, surely the American public needed a 'cause' to fight for, and their Congressmen knew that. Would an invasion of British Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies give the American public something to 'shout about' or perhaps their would've shrugged their shoulders and said 'what's it got to do with us?'
Hence I think it's just as plausible to think that Japan has a free hand for about six-months before the President can get the Congress to co-operate!! By then its the Phillipines who are threatened with being cut off.

 

[The Sandman]

Would the Japanese go for Ceylon in this scenario? If they somehow manage to ensure that the US doesn't come in, then Ceylon could be cut off and seized by naval power, and would give the Japanese an excellent base for further operations in the Indian Ocean.

 

[bill_bruno]

War with Germany first?

The US had committed itself to "all aid short of war", was escorting transatlantic convoys part of the way and had already had some skirmishes with German U-Boats. Possibly, in that period, an incident takes place (a la Lusitania) that leads to a US declaration of war on Germany that leads to one on Japan (or vice versa). Also, it's hard to imaging there not being US intervention against Japan given that the embargo of oil, etc., was US policy.

Figure the US gets into the war in the late-Spring of 1942, but with a stronger isolationist element given the lack of a Pearl Harbor.

 

[merlin]

With control of much of the Dutch East Indies - they might opt for the Darwin option!

 

[Chris]

It's an interesting question...

Let us presuppose that the Americans do not get involved in the fighting if they are not attacked directly. This means no Pearl Harbour, no attack on the Philpipines, etc. The Japanese forces that carried out that attack are sent to attack Singapore and the Dutch East Indies instead, and perhaps Austrilia as well, just to be complete.

The british may well evacuate Singapore ahead of time (without the US, its much more ovious that the fortress is going to fall sometime), which spares them the loss of so many fighting men. Regardless, the shipping constriants will make it harder to reinforce Burma, while the DEI are hopeless. India poses a harder problem, particularly if the Germans launch 'Operation Orient' and try to break through into the Middle East, or the Indian nationalists will see the position as hopeless and seek an accomdation with the Japanese.

The Japanese can probably thrash the RN out of the Indian Ocean and sink the RAN. Invading Aust. would become tricky - logistics again, alas - but they might attempt to take Darwin and sue for peace on those terms. Depending, they might also raid India, but an occupation would be tricky and the japanese much less capable of cooperating with the natives. A year or so down the line, so much depends on random factors that its harder to give anything like accurate statements...

Chris

 

[Wozza]

What's in this for the Japanese?

They have their oil, and much more besides, but they face the same diplomatic deadlock with the US over China, only with a fleet scattered all over East Asia, and with the opportunity for strategic surprise lost.

It's quite a big gamble for them to take to assume that the US will stay neutral, possibly a correct one in the short-term, but then they have lost all chances of suprise against their major opponent.

 

[Tyr]

Would the Japanese go for Ceylon in this scenario? If they somehow manage to ensure that the US doesn't come in, then Ceylon could be cut off and seized by naval power, and would give the Japanese an excellent base for further operations in the Indian Ocean.

At the time Britain did have a few ships which were collectivly called 'The Royal Navy' you know


People who think India will go up in revolt the minute the Japanese cross the border really underestimate the Indian's intelligance. Yes there were a few idiots but the majority recognised that their best hope for independance lay with supporting the British. The move towards independance was already well under way there and there was no reason for them to think Britain wouldn't keep its word.

In all seriousness though America would join the war. They couldn't afford to have Japan secure all the resources it needs and then attack American interests at a time of their choosing.

 

[Adam]

In all seriousness though America would join the war. They couldn't afford to have Japan secure all the resources it needs and then attack American interests at a time of their choosing.

But without a massive provacation like Pearl Harbor, would the American populace support the war heartfully? Or would it be like 'nam?

 

[Tyr]

But without a massive provacation like Pearl Harbor, would the American populace support the war heartfully? Or would it be like 'nam?

There was already heavy support building for the war vs. Germany. Without Japan trying anything it would probally just be a year or two before America went to war with Germany anyway.

 

[Markus]

Yet, surely the American public needed a 'cause' to fight for, and their Congressmen knew that. Would an invasion of British Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies give the American public something to 'shout about' or perhaps their would've shrugged their shoulders and said 'what's it got to do with us?'
Hence I think it's just as plausible to think that Japan has a free hand for about six-months before the President can get the Congress to co-operate!! By then its the Phillipines who are threatened with being cut off.

1.Give the USA six month more time and the Philippines will be a fortress: Fighters, radar, AA-guns, dive-bombers, B-17 all the stuff that as in short supply will be in abundance. And the ten divisions of the Philippine Army will be in a much better shape. In OTL their shortages of equipment were gigantic and even surpassed by the lack of training. Six month later they would have been fully armed and at least well trained enough to fight on the defensive. Defeating them would have required significantly more troops than the IJA was willing to deploy. 2.The administration was working its ass of to go to war against Germany. Well, actually the USA was already in a shooting war, Roosevelt continuously escalated it, but did not declare it. IIRC the Japanese had a much worse press in the USA than Germany at that time. Had something to do with the influential China lobby I think. So take that and the fact that no one in the US took the Japanese serious and a declaration of war is just around the corner.