No Backing Down! The WH makes good on its Red Line

August 27th 2013: President Obama tells the country that with or without Congress he will act in the interests of the U.S. and in the interests of humanity itself in Syria after the Ghouta nerve gas attack.

August 28th 2013: The WH allays fears in Baghdad that the U.S. intervention in Syria would further destabilize Western Iraq by approving Baghdad's standing request for air support against ISIL intrusion along with an agreement to up the number of American support and training personal in Baghdad from 100 to 1500. Its agreed they won't have a combat role, but will help fix Iraq's broken logistics systems.

Iraq announces its support for American action in Syria and agrees to let the U.S. Air Force stop Iranian overflights supporting Assad and under the table allows CIA agents in Iraq arm the FSA against ISIL in Eastern Syria.

August 29th 2013: President Obama- I have directed the United States Air Force to take targeted attacks against the air force of Basher Assad. Let this be a message to all dictators who slaughter innocents and stand up to the will of the international community that such acts will not stand.

I have also directed that the U.S. Air Force begin bombing the terrorist militia known as ISIL. Their brutality has shocked the world. This is an organization that you may have known better by their previous name al-Qaeda in Iraq. They are a threat to our allies in the region along with our European allies and in time if left unchecked they will be a threat to U.S. security as well.

If the U.S. doesn't support moderates like the Free Syrian Army against these evils they will be crushed between them and Syria will be left with a never ending civil war that will destabilize the region and sow chaos.

August 29th: American and French jets and cruise missiles strike ISIL positions and Syrian Air Force positions.

August 29th: Cameron and his allies decide to delay the vote in the British parliament for a few days for consultations and to see how events go in Syria.

August 30th: Putin declares the attack on Syria was an unprovoked criminal aggression. Iran's Supreme Leader declares the attack a Zionist Crusader assault on Islam. Small and medium scale protests break out in Europe against the war.

August 31st: A video is released by ISIL of U.S. journalist Steven Sotloff declaring that America and its allies are at war with Islam before being beheaded on camera.

September 1st: Polls in the U.S. showing a majority opposing the intervention shifts massively in overnight polling. Protesters in Europe quickly disappear.

September 2nd: The Syrian Air Force is degraded to a shell of what it was and the FSA is on the offensive against ISIL and Assad's forces in parts of Syria. America loses its first pilot over Syria.

September 3rd: Polls come out in the U.S. showing support in the mid 60% range for intervention in Syria. In the halls of Tehran and Damascus panic begins to set in.

September 4th: ISIL releases a second video of former U.S. soldier turned aid worker Peter Kassig being beheaded. Congress announces its willing to vote for an AUF for the war along with funding the mission. Cameron announces he is ready to hold a vote on intervention in Syria.

September 5th: The British parliament votes by a clear majority to vote in favor of intervention in Syria. In the meantime France loses its first pilot over Syria.

September 6th: ISIL beheads British hostage Alan Henning declaring Britain a crusader country.

September 8th: ISIL's territory they hold is shrinking as air strikes and quality weapons to the FSA start to take a toll. The territory the Syrian armed forces holds is shrinking as well.

September 8th: Assad under siege and without resupply from Iran from the air knows he is in deep trouble, but announces before the Syrian people that he will not step down as President and he will fight to the last man and the last bullet. As FSA troops make another assault on Damascus its met by another large scale chemical weapons attack that kills two hundred FSA fighters and over a thousand civilians.

The WH announces a prime time speech to both houses of Congress for the next day before the vote on authorizing military force.

September 10th: ISIL releases a video of American journalist James Foley being beheaded before President Obama's speech.

Obama declares before Congress that evil exists in this world be it in the form of dictators like al-Assad gassing women and children or ISIL killing civilians and cutting off the heads of Westerners and that if America and the Western world doesn't stand with moderates against these evils no one will and these evils will be triumphant.

His speech is declared by pundits to be the best foreign policy speech he has given as President.

September 11th: Congress votes to support the AUF Obama puts before them by large majorities. Hezbollah announces it is pulling out of Syria and back into Lebanon.

September 12th: Putin meets with Iranian officials and they both agree that the Western world means business and they need to salvage their interests in Syria. They start back channel talks with the U.S. administration about a potential compromise solution in Syria.

September 14th: An agreement is worked out between Russia and the U.S. for a power sharing government in Damascus much like exists in Lebanon in exchange Russia is allowed to keep its interests in Syria and base in the Mediterranean. As part of the deal Russia will support a Chapter 7 UN resolution for a post war peacekeeping force as long as they get to be part of it.

September 16th: Russia tells Assad and his brother behind the scenes its time to leave the country and go into exile and they tell the Russian envoy to piss off.

September 18th: Russia feeds the U.S. coordinates for Assad's bunker and within hours a B-1 Lancer takes off and drops a bunker buster bomb on the compound.

September 19th: The UNSC meets and declares a chapter 7 resolution to resolve the war in Syria. Russia, Turkey, Iraq, and a half dozen other countries commit several thousand peacekeepers to the mission.

Syria continues to be an anarchic country with terrorist Sunni and Shia militias, ISIL, and others

October 1st: In Tehran there is great worry having lost significant influence in Iraq with the return of a small number of American advisers and jets and having lost their client in Syria. Iran seeks to shore up what influence it has left in Lebanon and the Alawite areas of Syria.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhan announces a temporary freeze to its nuclear enrichment and opens up talks with the U.S. about a lasting nuclear deal.

February 1st 2014: Iran and the U.S. announce a lasting nuclear deal that allows Iran limited enrichment capabilities to be monitored by the UN.

February 20th 2014: Putin is seething at events in Ukraine and is looking over plans to occupy Crimea and destabilize the Eastern part of the country. But, Putin is ever mindful of events last year when his Syrian ally stepped over America's red line decides to shelf them and continue the long game of using gas and other levers to influence governmental policy in Ukraine.

Its only a matter of time he thinks before they will be back in the fold anyway.

June 1st 2014: Syria remains a mess, but the FSA and the Syrian army have merged and with the help of international peace keeping forces are slowly bringing order to the country and driving ISIL and its allies out of the towns and cities. Alawite and Shia militias have begun to demobilize other then in Alawite dominated regions.

November 4th 2014: On the back of a strengthening economy and foreign policy success abroad Americans are feeling good about themselves. Voters go to the polls and Republicans narrowly hold onto the House, but the Senate stays in democratic hands.
 
Is that it?

I would like to fill in the details of the internal politics and the rest when I have time which I don't have a significant deal of right now, but that is an overview of events.

The mechanization's of U.S. and Middle Eastern politics are the most interesting part. But, the central point is the WH did hold a very strong hand still in the summer of 2013. It just didn't know it and was too focused on the polls at the moment which can change overnight.

Acting and then letting Assad and ISIL make asses of themselves in response was the way to go.

Assad understood Western politics, but in a panic when doing badly he has shown the great capacity to overstep what the West will support. ISIL well they were just waiting for the U.S. to bomb them and keeping the hostages for just such an occasion.

Many in the GOP other then McCain and a few others who will have opposed acting early on before the bombs drop will have major egg on their face. When the WH wants to bomb as shown in Libya in 2011 or Iraq last summer it doesn't give a fig what Congress things. One walk Obama had with one of his political advisers in the rose garden got him to back down on Syria.

In August 2013 we still had a viable opposition in Syria that could fight a two front war if supported. Once we declared we wouldn't bomb Syria that became open season for ISIL to openly turn its guns on the FSA. I said at the time it was very much a Chamberlain moment where we had a choice between war and dishonor and if we chose dishonor we would still get war and a far worse one then we otherwise would have had.

Limited air strikes followed with cutting off Assad's resupply from Iran over Iraqi air space would doom him and it wouldn't take long for Russia and Iran to see the writing on the wall and try to salvage what they can.

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The containment strategy we put in place in the summer of 2013 simply wasn't nearly enough for how events evolved.

Unlike Saddam you likely won't see Assad fire his Scuds, chemical weapons tipped or otherwise at Israel or his neighbors. Though his own people is a different story.
 
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This is a much brighter future for the West than what we got!

I wonder what implications it will have for Ukraine further down the line in 2014? On the one hand, it seems like no matter what, Putin was going to hit back hard at Ukraine for toppling his puppet in Kiev. On the other hand, the West just showed a willingness and resolve to give an utter curb stomping to any who violate international norms of behaviour. Perhaps Russia supports rebels while issuing official denials, but doesn't risk annexing Crimea?
 
This is a much brighter future for the West than what we got!

I wonder what implications it will have for Ukraine further down the line in 2014? On the one hand, it seems like no matter what, Putin was going to hit back hard at Ukraine for toppling his puppet in Kiev. On the other hand, the West just showed a willingness and resolve to give an utter curb stomping to any who violate international norms of behaviour. Perhaps Russia supports rebels while issuing official denials, but doesn't risk annexing Crimea?

Supporting 'rebels' in Crimea is the most I could see Putin doing, but more likely I suspect he goes back to using the gas levers and other economic methods to try to crash the new government. The EU and U.S. without Russia invading is going to be very loathed to help Ukraine's economy and if it flat lines so too will the next government.

Chamberlain in 1938 had a somewhat similar situation to the one Obama had in 2013 with a war weary public and a fair number of decent reasons to make a deal to avoid military conflict. But, when war came a year later his opponents were stronger, much more unified and the situation was all around much worse.

Hitler actually had relatively weak hand in 38, but played it well. Assad and his allies and ISIL were in a similar boat of still having a relatively weak hand in August of 2013.

More then a few democratic politicos still have trouble figuring out why they were creamed last November even though the economy was getting better. It was because Americans felt like the world was coming unglued with Putin, Assad, ISIL, etc. walking all over them and the foreign policy and national security news managed to mask for Americans the fact the economy was in fact improving quite a bit. In the same way the GOP didn't get a boost from the good economic times of 2006 because the public was focused on the deteriorating situation in Iraq.
 
Supporting 'rebels' in Crimea is the most I could see Putin doing, but more likely I suspect he goes back to using the gas levers and other economic methods to try to crash the new government. The EU and U.S. without Russia invading is going to be very loathed to help Ukraine's economy and if it flat lines so too will the next government.

Chamberlain in 1938 had a somewhat similar situation to the one Obama had in 2013 with a war weary public and a fair number of decent reasons to make a deal to avoid military conflict. But, when war came a year later his opponents were stronger, much more unified and the situation was all around much worse.

Hitler actually had relatively weak hand in 38, but played it well. Assad and his allies and ISIL were in a similar boat of still having a relatively weak hand in August of 2013.

More then a few democratic politicos still have trouble figuring out why they were creamed last November even though the economy was getting better. It was because Americans felt like the world was coming unglued with Putin, Assad, ISIL, etc. walking all over them and the foreign policy and national security news managed to mask for Americans the fact the economy was in fact improving quite a bit. In the same way the GOP didn't get a boost from the good economic times of 2006 because the public was focused on the deteriorating situation in Iraq.

The Syria standoff in 2013 played out really weirdly. First Obama basically tells Assad to dismantle his WMDs or reap the whirlwind. Then, Putin steps in to broker a decommissioning of Syria's chemical weapons, outflanking Obama and denying him a reason to go to war. As you said, the Democrats might've gotten credit for achieving exactly what they wanted and rid the world of a dangerous WMD state. Instead, Obama looks wrong-footed and weak for dallying after his 'Red Line' comment made strikes seem imminent.

ITTL Obama's last 2 years aren't going to be shaped by ISIS and Ukraine, but by whatever legacy policy he guns for with his enhanced prestige at home for the economic recovery and strong exercise of power abroad. So perhaps we see a more domestically focussed Obama? Or maybe detente with Iran becomes the real prize out of all of this?
 
The Syria standoff in 2013 played out really weirdly. First Obama basically tells Assad to dismantle his WMDs or reap the whirlwind. Then, Putin steps in to broker a decommissioning of Syria's chemical weapons, outflanking Obama and denying him a reason to go to war. As you said, the Democrats might've gotten credit for achieving exactly what they wanted and rid the world of a dangerous WMD state. Instead, Obama looks wrong-footed and weak for dallying after his 'Red Line' comment made strikes seem imminent.

ITTL Obama's last 2 years aren't going to be shaped by ISIS and Ukraine, but by whatever legacy policy he guns for with his enhanced prestige at home for the economic recovery and strong exercise of power abroad. So perhaps we see a more domestically focussed Obama? Or maybe detente with Iran becomes the real prize out of all of this?

Détente with Iran and domestic policy wins are the big prizes he is going for now, but IS and its allies in the region are going to make sure the Western world will suffer attack after attack the next two years which will make Obama's focus very difficult.

You have a terror state in the heart of the Middle East with the resources of a state to train terrorists and export its ideology. Add to that other terror groups like al-Qaeda have to conduct as many attacks as possible in the West or lose all funding and recruits to IS and you have the perfect storm that isn't going to end anytime soon. Trying to focus on the economy when the masses are focused on international terrorism just means your message gets drowned out. I suspect it will be the story of his last two years in office on the current trajectory. It was the story of 2014 as well.
 
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Big problem- by this time there were already credible reports from those such as Carla del Ponte over Syrian rebel use of chemical weapons. OTL, Obama's response was met rather poorly in Congress- even among Democrats!
As for Iran, despite the claims of those in the Obama administration and Congress, the 2007 NIE still stands.
 
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