Nazi Victory Scenario: What happens to Russia?

Enigmajones

So lets say, and Im being rather lazy as I don't care about the POD but merely the scenario, that after Dunkirk Germany and Britain agree to a peace. Germany concentrates its full force on the Soviets and manage to reach the A-A Line. Now what? They have the Ostland and the Ukraine to think about, but Nazi resettlement programs are unrealistic at their best. For instance relocating all of the Dutch population to be resettled along the Bug River, and for that population to be replaced by Germans. Then there is Reichskomissariat Moskowien. Will they even attempt to settle Moskowien? Or leave it as a gigantic occupation zone? And what of the rest of Russia? Territory for the Russian Collaborators who assisted them possibly? A Kingdom of Russia slaughtering the ethnic peoples? Or everyones favorite Soviet Rump, occupying the rest of Russia and Central Asia.

In reality, which none of Nazi planning is based, how could any of these plans worked? The 500,000 seat Marble Olympic Stadium? The New Berlin, capital of the world? (If it doesn't sink) The plan to make Warsaw into nothing but a small German village and keep the Poles as nothing but a slave race? How could any of this possibly work?
 

Constantinople

Banned
Depends on how long it goes on. Give it 40 years and everyone is pretty much dead, and the region is a ridiculously underdeveloped wasteland.
 

Robert9640

Enigmajones said:
So lets say, and Im being rather lazy as I don't care about the POD but merely the scenario, that after Dunkirk Germany and Britain agree to a peace. Germany concentrates its full force on the Soviets and manage to reach the A-A Line. Now what? They have the Ostland and the Ukraine to think about, but Nazi resettlement programs are unrealistic at their best. For instance relocating all of the Dutch population to be resettled along the Bug River, and for that population to be replaced by Germans. Then there is Reichskomissariat Moskowien. Will they even attempt to settle Moskowien? Or leave it as a gigantic occupation zone? And what of the rest of Russia? Territory for the Russian Collaborators who assisted them possibly? A Kingdom of Russia slaughtering the ethnic peoples? Or everyones favorite Soviet Rump, occupying the rest of Russia and Central Asia.

In reality, which none of Nazi planning is based, how could any of these plans worked? The 500,000 seat Marble Olympic Stadium? The New Berlin, capital of the world? (If it doesn't sink) The plan to make Warsaw into nothing but a small German village and keep the Poles as nothing but a slave race? How could any of this possibly work?
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It would be hard for a country the size of Germany to conquer Russia, because Russia is so vast. Although I do think it would have been better off if Hitler had let the generals do as they wished instead of refusing to allow them to retreat in a timely manner and giving impossible orders. This would have definitely saved plenty of manpower that the German armies could have used if they had not been so carelessly wasted because of Hitler's decisions. As was often the case, Hitler would throw away entire divisions because of his decisions, and then become obsessed with rescuing other encircled divisions or battalions elsewhere. It was because of this, that the Germans were not able to prolong the war through 1945 into 1946. If the Germans had access to more men (those who were carelessly wasted by Hitler's decision-making could have helped prolong the war for the Germans.) the war may have gone on longer than it did. But that's just my opinion.
 

Enigmajones

Robert9640 said:
It would be hard for a country the size of Germany to conquer Russia, because Russia is so vast. Although I do think it would have been better off if Hitler had let the generals do as they wished instead of refusing to allow them to retreat in a timely manner and giving impossible orders. This would have definitely saved plenty of manpower that the German armies could have used if they had not been so carelessly wasted because of Hitler's decisions. As was often the case, Hitler would throw away entire divisions because of his decisions, and then become obsessed with rescuing other encircled divisions or battalions elsewhere. It was because of this, that the Germans were not able to prolong the war through 1945 into 1946. If the Germans had access to more men (those who were carelessly wasted by Hitler's decision-making could have helped prolong the war for the Germans.) the war may have gone on longer than it did. But that's just my opinion.
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I get that, as I said Im not interested in the military side of it or its realism of the scenario. The scenario would be that by 1943, the Germans have reached the A-A Line, how realistic is the implementation of their ridiculous goals? And what happens to the rest of the Soviet Union?
 

Robert9640

Enigmajones said:
I get that, as I said Im not interested in the military side of it or its realism of the scenario. The scenario would be that by 1943, the Germans have reached the A-A Line, how realistic is the implementation of their ridiculous goals? And what happens to the rest of the Soviet Union?
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I know, but in your scenario, the German army would play a key role in occupation duties as well as quell any partisan activity and other duties. The Luftwaffe would most likely be supporting the German armies in their advances as well as bombing key Soviet installations and garrisoned cities that may continue to hold out against the German armies. The German navy would probably patrol such waters as the Black Sea and the Baltic in order to keep the Soviet navy in check and unable to react. Outside of the military, the Germans may try to recruit locals in assisting them with their activities as well as provide a source of manpower for the Germans (for example, the 14th SS Volunteer Divsion "Galician"). Other than that, I can't really say what would happen in this scenario.
 

Enigmajones

Robert9640 said:
I know, but in your scenario, the German army would play a key role in occupation duties as well as quell any partisan activity and other duties. The Luftwaffe would most likely be supporting the German armies in their advances as well as bombing key Soviet installations and garrisoned cities that may continue to hold out against the German armies. The German navy would probably patrol such waters as the Black Sea and the Baltic in order to keep the Soviet navy in check and unable to react. Outside of the military, the Germans may try to recruit locals in assisting them with their activities as well as provide a source of manpower for the Germans (for example, the 14th SS Volunteer Divsion "Galician"). Other than that, I can't really say what would happen in this scenario.
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Fair point sir. oh damn almost forgot about Kaukasien. That would be under their watch too.
 

Hamelus

Enigmajones said:
I get that, as I said Im not interested in the military side of it or its realism of the scenario. The scenario would be that by 1943, the Germans have reached the A-A Line, how realistic is the implementation of their ridiculous goals? And what happens to the rest of the Soviet Union?
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Given the amount of civilian deaths the Germans caused WHILE facing organised military resistance from the USSR, I'd have to say that they would have very little problem implementing their goals should the USSR have been defeated.

OTL Holocaust would pale in comparison with what Germany would have done in the USSR should they have won.
 
neopeius

neopeius

Enigmajones said:
I get that, as I said Im not interested in the military side of it or its realism of the scenario. The scenario would be that by 1943, the Germans have reached the A-A Line, how realistic is the implementation of their ridiculous goals? And what happens to the rest of the Soviet Union?
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Calbear's timeline was written specifically to address that question. You don't have to read the whole thing. The first few entries cover what you want to know.
 

Enigmajones

neopeius said:
Calbear's timeline was written specifically to address that question. You don't have to read the whole thing. The first few entries cover what you want to know.
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I actually managed to read the preface, quite long, excellent stuff. I just don't have the time for sad it right now.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Nietzsche said:
Whenever you get the time, it answers your question in the best detail I've seen anywhere. Calbear's world is like God decided to take one giant shit on the human spirit while stabbing puppies.
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Why, thank you!

:D


BTW: The TL does give a very detailed answer to the OP, but to give the thumbnail view -

European Russia is effectively obliterated as a political reality.

Significant, virtually constant, low intensity warfare along the demarcation line.

A brutal "peace" that would include on-going transport of "guest worker" (slaves) to the Greater Reich to be worked to death with the added benefit of keeping the remaining Soviet Union weak and unable to re-arm. A reasonable guess would be 250,000 - 500,000 guest workers per year for a term of five years. That gives between 1.25 and 2.5 million slaves to work on the fortifications of the Greater Reich. Assume around 85% death rate for these poor souls. This would allow the Reich to more or less eliminate the Slavic population of the USSR in around 40 years.

Massive tribute of raw materials and foodstuffs from the Soviets to the Reich.

On-going occupation of USSR by "stability" troops whose main job would be to ensure that the draconian terms of the peace deal would continue to be followed to the letter.

Moscow and St. Petersburg would have been eradicated, undoubtedly using Soviet slave labor as well as most Slavs within easy reach of the cities. The Nazi term of art for this was "extermination through labor".

In short a slow, remarkably and intentionally brutal, stangulation of the USSR.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Many of Hitler plans were not practical, they were more a religious belief. Hitler had his race ideas and vision of the "German Utopia". The time line mention is excellent, and i will discuss some other issues.

Germany has a demographic problem. They have millions of soldiers at the front, not producing babies. They are losing 10,000 or so soldiers per day at times. There are quick German victory ATL, but there are also slower ones. The German population is going down, not up. A rational leader would be looking at how are we going to keep our German land and factories working, not how are we going to settle a land many times larger than German. Russia has the same demographic issues as Germany. In addition, Hitler is killing millions of civilians through the death camps and roving death squads. Also in war, the death rate for disease in the general population jumps. We are looking at a region from the Volga to Rhine that is losing population.

A lot of the land will revert to wild land, much like the Chernobyl exclusion zone is today. Assuming they continue the extermination campaign, most of European Russia will be like Siberia is today. A vast, largely empty forest or steppe. I doubt if Hitler wins in 1944 and there are generous subsidies to German women to have large families that Germany will produce enough Germans to settle Poland within a generation. And I will guarantee there will not be enough to settle Poland and Belarus. After Hitler's death, will there even be much German interest in occupying the less valuable parts of European Russia?

I do believe if Hitler had won, the Germania (New Berlin) would have been finished with slave labor.

In the long run, the Nazi plans would not have worked.
 

MRig

BlondieBC said:
Many of Hitler plans were not practical, they were more a religious belief. Hitler had his race ideas and vision of the "German Utopia". The time line mention is excellent, and i will discuss some other issues.

Germany has a demographic problem. They have millions of soldiers at the front, not producing babies. They are losing 10,000 or so soldiers per day at times. There are quick German victory ATL, but there are also slower ones. The German population is going down, not up. A rational leader would be looking at how are we going to keep our German land and factories working, not how are we going to settle a land many times larger than German. Russia has the same demographic issues as Germany. In addition, Hitler is killing millions of civilians through the death camps and roving death squads. Also in war, the death rate for disease in the general population jumps. We are looking at a region from the Volga to Rhine that is losing population.

A lot of the land will revert to wild land, much like the Chernobyl exclusion zone is today. Assuming they continue the extermination campaign, most of European Russia will be like Siberia is today. A vast, largely empty forest or steppe. I doubt if Hitler wins in 1944 and there are generous subsidies to German women to have large families that Germany will produce enough Germans to settle Poland within a generation. And I will guarantee there will not be enough to settle Poland and Belarus. After Hitler's death, will there even be much German interest in occupying the less valuable parts of European Russia?

I do believe if Hitler had won, the Germania (New Berlin) would have been finished with slave labor.

In the long run, the Nazi plans would not have worked.
Click to expand...

This fits into my long-term vision of a successful Nazi Germany. Such vast land, not enough population to people it, and such a fractious political system--and imagine how it will be after Hitler dies! We'd see it revert to something like a larger Holy Roman Empire: a series of overlapping fiefdoms dominated by various Gauteliers, Wehrmacht and SS officers, and in the frontier regions, straight-up warlords. Over time they would form an aristocracy, in some cases hereditary. The Party would function rather like the Church, and the Fuehrer would be something of an elected monarch, exercising real control in Germany proper but rarely able to keep the frontier Gaue in line. Perhaps this is too fanciful, but I even thought that perhaps some Germans would live as latter-day nomadic steppe people on the depopulated North European Plain, using trucks, motorcycles and tanks in place of horses, and raiding sedentary populations, whether fellow Germans, Slavs across the demarcation line, or both.
 
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