Monica's baby, the ruin of Clinton - a TL

A new social promise and opportunity A special offshoot of chapter 31 100 days series - I don't understand the Democrats' approach to Social Security in this country, and I'm not alone - William Weld (Senator Weld ITTL)

The Spring Summer and early Fall of 1997, Washington DC

The SPOA would become the signature legislative action of Phil Gramm's 1997-2001 period; although it was a bitter and hard fought battle; it's first introduction to the media was in an interview that Phil Gramm gave to 60 minutes on CBS where he named it as the next great change to come to America... and following this announcement, members of his administration and republicans on the hill began making the rounds with the newspapers and Sunday talk shows to tout Dunn's SPOA.

Out front for the administration where Dunn and Michael Dell. Dell was quickly won over to the plan when he saw the potential of the huge influx of new monies into the stock market which would spur massive growth and investment capabilities for the blue chips and even smaller players in the S&P 500 and Russel 2000 index which would be offered to the taxpayers. Dunn was calm and collected in her evaluation of the program which she labeled as necessary to grow the economy for the 21st century with Tim Russert on Meet the Press

The congressional speerpoint was held by William Weld in the senate. Weld had a strong business background and had worked financial miracles in Mass during his time as governor; bringing the states budget into order for the first time in many years; the man was able to get reelected in 1994 with a stunning 74 percent of the vote in a highly democratic state, so it was no surprise that he was Gramm's chosen leader on this project. Weld cogently explained over and over again that social security would finally begin to distance itself from inflation, and divorce itself from the governments general operations and borrowing schemes.

Blandishments aside the status quo, inertia and the democrats where difficult obstacles to be tackled. Bob Graham from Florida naturally lead the effort to roadblock SPOA. He labeled it as the end to social security and the installation of Las Vegas as the retirement savings account in a Miami Herald Op-Ed. Tom Daschle, Richard Gephardt and the new chairman of the democratic national committee Leon Panetta put together a concerted effort to label the plan as a tool of big business to play roulette with the country's retirement savings; the effect began to tell; Connie Mack was safe having just been comfortably reelected beside Phil Gramm; but the house members looking at the always looming midterms where not. Whilst the debate raged... assemblyman Jeff Miller (staying as a democrat) successfully won a special election taking Florida's first district which had been vacated by Joe Scarborough becoming white house chief of staff... Tillie Fowler's former seat also in northern Florida (4th) was only narrowly taken by Michael Bennett who had left his position in the state senate to run to keep the seat for the Republicans.

It was much the same across the sun belt as the democrats pounded message after message across the full spectrum of media decrying any change to social security as it's destruction with potential elimination of benefits that people had worked for.

Gramm held firm, responding to attacks over the summer, drawing comparison to the SPOA and the CALPERS state pension plan which continued to be heavily successful in the red hot stock market...the stock market as well accepted the plan positively; CNBC's Larry Kudlow and Mark Haines came out emphatically in favor of the plan and continued to make Michael Dell a repeat guest on their shows; and progress in various congressional proceedings saw the DOW Jones continue to jump as the plan looked like it would come to be

The Democrats where not the only ones to charge a price for having to take such a difficult vote; the previous fucking with Missouri on defense appropriations early in the year saw Bond and Ashcroft "listen" to their senior citizens and demand and gain additional unpopular concessions from Gramm which saw additional new modified KC-135's having to be built in Missouri along with a new national guard depot.... the biggest sop was that the SOPA server farm and administrative functions would have to be based in St. Louis instead of the more logical and preferred areas in Northern Virginia under consideration. Ashcroft proved to be one of the bigger thorns in Gramm's side about the SPOA even more so than some democrats as Gramm had been able to gain some lukewarm support from California's Diane Feinstein who saw the useful comparisons between CALPERS and the SPOA plan

On September 16th 1997 the SPOA passed the house 267-165 with 19 democrats supporting and 2 republicans joining the dissenters; and it passed the senate 3 days later 61-37 with Phil Gram signing it later in the day. 6 months would be set aside to get the program in place and at the end of the 1st quarter in 1998; the American taxpayer would get to make their first allocation decision

Some of the talking heads in financial circles predicted that on passage of the SPOA that the stock market would take another massive leg forward. This didn't materialize as the Dow Jones industrial average had gained more than 2000 points during the year already (historical) and the passage of the SPOA was already priced in to the market as it sat at the highs of the year at 9000 points. It was one of the more bittersweet ironies that on the day Gramm signed the SPOA into law, the Dow lost 165 points as the wall street movers decided to lock in some of their large profits the year had already brought them

to be continued...


thoughts?
 
On one hand I like reform to SocSecurity

On the other, tieing it to the stock market is... questionable.

In any event, keep up the good work!
 
That SS reform has much more interesting potential long-term effects than the immediate gyrations of the stock market. It suggests some interesting changes in both the future obligations of the federal government and participation in financial markets. We are talking about a fair amount of money here, after all.

All in all, good news for the relatively solid, boring listed companies that are probably following or participating in the federal government's large investment into IT. Provided that sort of securities investment takes preeminence over Pets.com and rapid IPOs, the bubble might be milder than it was OTL.

After SS reform combined with the trimming of the military budget, I bet the long-term federal budget projections look rather interesting. Presumably some kind of tax cuts or tax reform is inevitable, but that might not be so bad budget-wise, depending on the specifics.

Now, Medicare... Let's see if Gramm has any bright ideas and enough political capital to handle that.
 
That SS reform has much more interesting potential long-term effects than the immediate gyrations of the stock market. It suggests some interesting changes in both the future obligations of the federal government and participation in financial markets. We are talking about a fair amount of money here, after all.

All in all, good news for the relatively solid, boring listed companies that are probably following or participating in the federal government's large investment into IT. Provided that sort of securities investment takes preeminence over Pets.com and rapid IPOs, the bubble might be milder than it was OTL.

After SS reform combined with the trimming of the military budget, I bet the long-term federal budget projections look rather interesting. Presumably some kind of tax cuts or tax reform is inevitable, but that might not be so bad budget-wise, depending on the specifics.

Now, Medicare... Let's see if Gramm has any bright ideas and enough political capital to handle that.


social security was the benchmark; and as well be developed later, it will cost gramm dearly, despite being ultimately a good thing for the country
 
I wonder: short of constitutional amendments, what is it about his reforms that cannot be reversed?:confused:

Depends on what in question is being reversed. Social Security will likely be defended by the Republican Senators, and thus the Democrats would need a Super-Majority to successfully overturn it even with a Democratic President in the White House.​
 
Depends on what in question is being reversed. Social Security will likely be defended by the Republican Senators, and thus the Democrats would need a Super-Majority to successfully overturn it even with a Democratic President in the White House.​

Considering the slavishness in both voting and on Social Security issue alone (for those who depend on it, which is most of them) for senior citizens, I wonder what's to stop constituents from putting the fear of Almighty God into their representatives? Even in ruby red states like Idaho, there are such things as primary challenges. Its not like this Congress in 1997 is being run by the Tea Party.
 
I wonder: short of constitutional amendments, what is it about his reforms that cannot be reversed?:confused:

once people have an individual account with their name on it, particularly one growing well ahead of bonds or TIPS in the heat of the boom in the 90's they will be loath to go back to just buying treasuries and surrendering that individual account

sort of like the concept behind obamacare, once people get tax credits that make it easier for them to get health insurance, and once small business rates go down with the exchanges, people won't accept it going back to the way it was before
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxpayer_Relief_Act_of_1997

Will something similar to the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 be passed? The primary effects of the law were lowering the capital gains tax rate to 20%/10%, which would certainly contribute to the stock market boom seen in OTL. The bill also eliminated capital gains on primary residences. On the other hand, it introduced a child tax credit, one of many steps that moved away from the Reagan goal of a tax code with fewer deductions to go with lower rates.

The bill passed with unanimous Republican support and support from a supermajority of Democrats.
 
once people have an individual account with their name on it, particularly one growing well ahead of bonds or TIPS in the heat of the boom in the 90's they will be loath to go back to just buying treasuries and surrendering that individual account

sort of like the concept behind obamacare, once people get tax credits that make it easier for them to get health insurance, and once small business rates go down with the exchanges, people won't accept it going back to the way it was before

Are the individual accounts assets that can be passed on to one's heirs? One of the benefits of any defined benefit pension plan is that because people who die before receiving benefits receive nothing*, the survivors get more. The tontine-like nature sucks if you're the movie cop who dies two days before retirement.

*I'm referring to the pension benefit of Social Security here. I know there are other benefits that make up a small part of the program.
 
Are the individual accounts assets that can be passed on to one's heirs? One of the benefits of any defined benefit pension plan is that because people who die before receiving benefits receive nothing*, the survivors get more. The tontine-like nature sucks if you're the movie cop who dies two days before retirement.

*I'm referring to the pension benefit of Social Security here. I know there are other benefits that make up a small part of the program.

Yes, minus a small transfer tax; these individual accounts will be able to be passed on to heirs; a la the Chile model which both there and in studies from the Heritage foundation has been shown to drastically increase the savings rate and reduce wealth inequality
 

FDW

Banned
Yes, minus a small transfer tax; these individual accounts will be able to be passed on to heirs; a la the Chile model which both there and in studies from the Heritage foundation has been shown to drastically increase the savings rate and reduce wealth inequality

Has that study been confirmed by groups other than the Heritage foundation?
 
Has that study been confirmed by groups other than the Heritage foundation?

it's been physically confirmed on the ground by Chile who saw their savings rate increase dramatically over a 30 year period

the wall street journal estimated in 2006 that a similar program would add 6 or 7 trillion dollars to social security's total assets within 20 years
 
it's been physically confirmed on the ground by Chile who saw their savings rate increase dramatically over a 30 year period

the wall street journal estimated in 2006 that a similar program would add 6 or 7 trillion dollars to social security's total assets within 20 years

I'd still like to see those studies confirmed by organizations other than the Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal. You know, some outfits who are NOT currently pushing Pope Benedict XVI to declare Ronald Reagan the patron saint of the United States.:p Despite the fact that Reagan was not a Roman Catholic.:rolleyes:
 

Hendryk

Banned
it's been physically confirmed on the ground by Chile who saw their savings rate increase dramatically over a 30 year period
Savings rate is not a relevant factor. The Chinese have one of the world's highest savings rates, but that's precisely because they know they'll have nothing but their own savings to fall back on in case of health problem.

This TL, which was a political author tract from the start, now reads like a barely-redacted version of the posts you used to make in the health care debates a couple of years ago. If you want to claim that a system that will pour plenty of money in your pockets is the best thing ever, do it in Chat. This forum is for alternate history, not political wish fulfilment.
 
I'd still like to see those studies confirmed by organizations other than the Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal. You know, some outfits who are NOT currently pushing Pope Benedict XVI to declare Ronald Reagan the patron saint of the United States.:p Despite the fact that Reagan was not a Roman Catholic.:rolleyes:

It's fairly logical UT... SS as currently allocated buys bonds which have been in a low interest rate cycle for 30 years; whereas the DOW (provided you reinvest dividends) has far and away outpaced those bounds... even last year where there were swings up and down; and the DOW finished relatively unchanged (up 1 and change percenter) had you reinvested your quarterly dividends which happened to coincide nicely with several dips in the market; you would have been up 8 percent per Jim Cramer (an ardent Obama supporter no less) on Street Signs last week

making 8 percent is superior to making 4 percent:)
 
Savings rate is not a relevant factor. The Chinese have one of the world's highest savings rates, but that's precisely because they know they'll have nothing but their own savings to fall back on in case of health problem.

This TL, which was a political author tract from the start, now reads like a barely-redacted version of the posts you used to make in the health care debates a couple of years ago. If you want to claim that a system that will pour plenty of money in your pockets is the best thing ever, do it in Chat. This forum is for alternate history, not political wish fulfilment.

Hendryk,

I am going to stick my New Year's resolution and be polite

The US for decades had a nearly negative savings rate; I'm no expert on China to comment on the dynamics that shape their rates; but in the US people building up a small reserve of money would be a welcome change versus the over aggressive spending of OTL

If you where to run a search, you would see I posed the concept of Monica getting pregnant as a board question back in 2009 and then spent a lot of time after that taking some of the suggestions and crafting it into a TL

I haven't played loose with the facts... Monica and Bill had a sexual relationship, Monica and Bill were sexually active on the dates I chose in this TL, Monica's friend Linda Tripp was secretly compiling proof of the affair for a future books release and media expose, the affair was exposed by Clinton's enemies and used in an effort to destroy him, it is rumored privately that Hillary was furious over the Lewinsky affair, the republicans have wanted to partially privatize social security since the 1980's and tried unsuccessfully to do so in 2006; and it is still part of the republican party platform and was included in the Ryan budget plan

So in regards to social security being privatized... I took something that was republican party platform; endorsed by Phil Gramm in real life, physically attempted by the Republicans in 2006, and is still part of their platform today and inserted it into a timeline where the Republicans had taken the white house and had big majorities in congress..... do you see a plausibility issue with that?
 
Would the privatized Social Security System provide the same survivors and disability payments provided for under the current system?
 
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