Louis the Great of Poland and Hungary and Elizabeth of Bosnia had a male heir

[Salma Amer]

What if Catherine (1370-1378) had born a s son and lived until 1443?

What is the suitable wife for Louis II, King of Hungary and Poland (1370-1443)?

What are the appropriate marriages for his sisters?

What is the probability of Louis seeking a third throne (Naples).

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

What if Catherine (1370-1378) had born a s son and lived until 1443?

What is the suitable wife for Louis II, King of Hungary and Poland (1370-1443)?

What are the appropriate marriages for his sisters?

What is the probability of Louis seeking a third throne (Naples).

If he is born around 1370, maybe Joan II, OTL Queen of Naples would be suitable wife, Louis essentially gave up on his Neapolitan ambitions at the end of his life, accepting Charles of Durazzo as ruler and giving him troops to defeat Joan I, so the issue would be probably resolved by double marriage - Louis II + Joan and Vladislaus, son of Charles of Durazzo + Mary of Anjou while Hedwig probably would go on to marry Sigismund of Luxembourg, if his father would reconcile with Luxembourgs that is, because Charles IV won't be happy about Hungarian giant encircling his possesions so he would support Polish oppositon + his son is possible claimant as great grandson of Casimir III and son of sister of Casimir of Słupsk + in medieval Poland Bohemians were not considered fully foreign so some Poles might prefer Bohemian ruler over Hungarian, totally foreign ruler (@Jan Olbracht ), so I suppose there would be Bohemian-Hungarian War somewhere in early Louis II's reign.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I tought about slightly different scenario: Louis has a son, who outlives him... just barely. So Louis is not trying to secure female succession in Hungary and Poland. Result is Sigismund of Luxembourg claiming Polish throne (as great-grandson of Casimir the Great) while Charles of Durazzo claims Hungary (if Sigismund and Durazzo's son are married to Louis' daughters they may both claim whole inheritance, but split is likely).

 

[duncansa]

With Louis II's wife giving birth to a son instead of a daughter there would have been no need for Louis to agree to the Privilege of Kraschau (or Kosyzce) . Without giving up so much power to the szlachta, Poland could have had a more powerful monarchy and a more centralized state. This may have resulted in a less anarchic Polish state which would have been much more powerful . May have resulted in a much different Eastern Europe.
Of course if the boy died at the same time as OTL Catherine did then Louis may have had to surrender privileges to the szlachta then to ensure the second daughter Mary would get the Polish crown.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

With Louis II's wife giving birth to a son instead of a daughter there would have been no need for Louis to agree to the Privilege of Kraschau (or Kosyzce) . Without giving up so much power to the szlachta, Poland could have had a more powerful monarchy and a more centralized state. This may have resulted in a less anarchic Polish state which would have been much more powerful . May have resulted in a much different Eastern Europe.
Of course if the boy died at the same time as OTL Catherine did then Louis may have had to surrender privileges to the szlachta then to ensure the second daughter Mary would get the Polish crown.

Eh, a lot to unpack here:
1) despite looking at XXIth century map, medieval Hungary was a lot larger than Late Medieval Poland who was left as husk of it's former self by disastrous reign of Vladislaus I the Elbow-High
2) center of Louis's monarchy was Hungary, not Poland, so Polish privileges were kind of irrelevant for him, he got the money he needed from mines in Upper Hungary (modern-day Slovakia) anyways, as these were biggest gold deposits in medieval Europe
3) Poland under continuing Louis's regime would most likely resemble Croatia, another Catholic Slavic kingdom which went in PU with Hungary and became it's part (@Jan Olbracht thinks that this analogy is not grounded, because Poland had more population than Croatia and as such would be able to matter more than Croatia did).
Basically, Poland becoming a major regional power wasn't fated, especially after fragmentation period and it's outcome, that's the tragedy of Poland, when it got the opportunity to expand due to Jogaila's benevolence, it began descent towards anarchy and the possible late medieval PODs stopping said descent usually tie Poland to Hungary more, brining back the opportunity to end up like Croatia.
And btw szlachta as fully formed group didn't exist yet, the medieval knightly estate wasn't nearly as much defined as later szlachta.
So Louis I having a son creates mega-powerful Hungary, if anything.

 

[UnaiB]

@Fehérvári

 

[Jan Olbracht]

.
So Louis I having a son creates mega-powerful Hungary, if anything.

There is OTOH no guarantee that Louis' son won't be someone like Rex Bene.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

There is OTOH no guarantee that Louis' son won't be someone like Rex Bene.

There is no guarantee Louis's son will be anything, because he did not exist IOTL so we know nothing about him.

 

[duncansa]

Eh, a lot to unpack here:
1) despite looking at XXIth century map, medieval Hungary was a lot larger than Late Medieval Poland who was left as husk of it's former self by disastrous reign of Vladislaus I the Elbow-High
2) center of Louis's monarchy was Hungary, not Poland, so Polish privileges were kind of irrelevant for him, he got the money he needed from mines in Upper Hungary (modern-day Slovakia) anyways, as these were biggest gold deposits in medieval Europe
3) Poland under continuing Louis's regime would most likely resemble Croatia, another Catholic Slavic kingdom which went in PU with Hungary and became it's part (@Jan Olbracht thinks that this analogy is not grounded, because Poland had more population than Croatia and as such would be able to matter more than Croatia did).
Basically, Poland becoming a major regional power wasn't fated, especially after fragmentation period and it's outcome, that's the tragedy of Poland, when it got the opportunity to expand due to Jogaila's benevolence, it began descent towards anarchy and the possible late medieval PODs stopping said descent usually tie Poland to Hungary more, brining back the opportunity to end up like Croatia.
And btw szlachta as fully formed group didn't exist yet, the medieval knightly estate wasn't nearly as much defined as later szlachta.
So Louis I having a son creates mega-powerful Hungary, if anything.

I don't see the Croatia analog, Poland is too big IMO to be dominated long term by Hungary.
Maybe see a Hungary-Poland Empire (as an analogy with the Austro-Hungary of OTL) if there was a ruler strong enough to keep the variuos factions subjugated.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

I don't see the Croatia analog, Poland is too big IMO to be dominated long term by Hungary.
Maybe see a Hungary-Poland Empire (as an analogy with the Austro-Hungary of OTL) if there was a ruler strong enough to keep the variuos factions subjugated.

PLC was too big, but look at Poland during Vladislaus I the Elbow-High reign, it was small, although quite densely populate for it's size.

 

[Fehérvári]

Putting aside the matter of Poland, the single fact that the Anjou dynasty would continue on in Hungary ITTL has major implications for royal power within Hungary. A change in dynasty always requires the reconstruction of a powerbase strong and loyal to the crown. Repeating this process too many times can completely erode royal authority. A continuing Anjou dynasty prevents this kind of erosion. This scenario would most probably include a few years of regency for the young Louis II (12 yo in 1382), but that's still managable.

I wonder if there would be effects on the Battle of Kosovo (if it still occurs). Maybe a stable and strong Hungary would send enough reinforcements to Prince Lazar (perhaps in exchange for a vow of vassalage to Louis II or in exchange for the Macho region) to tip the scales in Serbian favour. Then if the Ottoman position would remain unstable on the Balkans in the following decade, then Timur's invasion might actually spell the premature end of the Ottoman state ITTL.

 

[lokaloki]

As Poles demanded to have a king who will be live in Poland (and to be in good relations with Charles), I believe, the same marriage for Maria: Sigizmund of Luxemburg, who became the King of Poland.
And Vladislav of Durazzo can marry Hedwig (it seems, it is better for his age and Maria is better for Sigizmund age) in the double marriage that was proposed by @Zygmunt Stary. But, sorry I cannot understand conditions - what does Durazzo get? The crown of Croatia?
And it seems, Lithuania with all its civial wars will be divided between Hungary, Teutonic Order, Poland, a bit of Mazovia, maybe a bit of Novgorod and Moscow, maybe Golden Horde - and maybe some of Lithuanian princes, who choosed the "good side" in time.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

As Poles demanded to have a king who will be live in Poland (and to be in good relations with Charles), I believe, the same marriage for Maria: Sigizmund of Luxemburg, who became the King of Poland.
And Vladislav of Durazzo can marry Hedwig (it seems, it is better for his age and Maria is better for Sigizmund age) in the double marriage that was proposed by @Zygmunt Stary. But, sorry I cannot understand conditions - what does Durazzo get? The crown of Croatia?
And it seems, Lithuania with all its civial wars will be divided between Hungary, Teutonic Order, Poland, a bit of Mazovia, maybe a bit of Novgorod and Moscow, maybe Golden Horde - and maybe some of Lithuanian princes, who choosed the "good side" in time.

Well, Sigismund marrying Mary seems rather counterproductive if his father would want Polish crown for him, because only way Sigismund would get it is him being supported by anti-Angevin, anti-Hungarian party in Poland and Bohemia waging succesful war on Hungary. The wishes of Poles will be ignored by Elizabeth of Bosnia if Louis would have a son, which I imagine would make Poles more receptive to Luxembourg claim.
Durazzo ain't getting anything, the marriage would just cement his father's claim to Naples, the idea that the strongest state of central Europe would give up Croatia, which they held since approximately 300 years.
As far as Lithuania is involved, I doubt Poles and Hungarians will have opportunity to take anything, since they would be busy fighting each other.

 

[lokaloki]

Well, Sigismund marrying Mary seems rather counterproductive if his father would want Polish crown for him, because only way Sigismund would get it is him being supported by anti-Angevin, anti-Hungarian party in Poland and Bohemia waging succesful war on Hungary. The wishes of Poles will be ignored by Elizabeth of Bosnia if Louis would have a son, which I imagine would make Poles more receptive to Luxembourg claim.
Durazzo ain't getting anything, the marriage would just cement his father's claim to Naples, the idea that the strongest state of central Europe would give up Croatia, which they held since approximately 300 years.
As far as Lithuania is involved, I doubt Poles and Hungarians will have opportunity to take anything, since they would be busy fighting each other.

I thought about otl - Sigismund was betrothed to Maria in about 1371, when neither Vladislav nor Hedwig were born, and sorry I do not understand what is changed if Louis II was born in 1370 and what is the difference with Catherine.
I thought, Louis II gets Naples after marriage and did not understand why Durazzo and his father agreed on this - now I see, that I was wrong.
Elizabeth of Bosnia, as far as I remember, called Maria and Sigismund to rule both Hungary and Poland, what is impossible, if Louis II exists - so she can ignore poles, but Sigismund is the future king of Poland since 1379 (if it is as in otl - and why not in ttl?), what can she do?
Perhaps, you have discussed it many times and everything is clear for you Sorry, if I ask the same questions in the tenth time.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

I thought about otl - Sigismund was betrothed to Maria in about 1371, when neither Vladislav nor Hedwig were born, and sorry I do not understand what is changed if Louis II was born in 1370 and what is the difference with Catherine.
I thought, Louis II gets Naples after marriage and did not understand why Durazzo and his father agreed on this - now I see, that I was wrong.
Elizabeth of Bosnia, as far as I remember, called Maria and Sigismund to rule both Hungary and Poland, what is impossible, if Louis II exists - so she can ignore poles, but Sigismund is the future king of Poland since 1379 (if it is as in otl - and why not in ttl?), what can she do?
Perhaps, you have discussed it many times and everything is clear for you Sorry, if I ask the same questions in the tenth time.

Well, the big change is that Louis II is Angevin heir to Poland and heir to Hungary thus Mary marriage is useless to Charles because he cannot hope to gain Angevin inheritance by marrying Mary.
Split was acceptable for Louis when he had only daughters (and even then, he tried to stick Poland and Hungary together), but if he has a son he'd try to preserve unity between two countries to pass them to his son.
If Poles don't want to be reduced to something like Croatia, Bohemia is their only possible ally and Sigismund is already great-grandson of Casimir. If he can't win greater price by becoming king of Hungary, he must denounce whole Angevin rule as illegitimate and for Bohemia it's only chance to avoid Hungarian encirclement.

 

[lokaloki]

Well, the big change is that Louis II is Angevin heir to Poland and heir to Hungary thus Mary marriage is useless to Charles because he cannot hope to gain Angevin inheritance by marrying Mary.
Split was acceptable for Louis when he had only daughters (and even then, he tried to stick Poland and Hungary together), but if he has a son he'd try to preserve unity between two countries to pass them to his son.
If Poles don't want to be reduced to something like Croatia, Bohemia is their only possible ally and Sigismund is already great-grandson of Casimir. If he can't win greater price by becoming king of Hungary, he must denounce whole Angevin rule as illegitimate and for Bohemia it's only chance to avoid Hungarian encirclement.

Oh. I always thought that Hungary-Poland was kind of personal union, that ends with death of Louis - probably, because Catherine and Louis of Orlean expected to rule either Hungary or Poland.
But even if Louis II is heir for the united country, it seems that in 1372 Maria is still a valuable bride, as if Louis II dies childless, she can be the queen of Hungary-Poland, and the peace is needed for Charles IV and Louis of Hungary - so, from this point of view the marriage Sigismund-Maria seems possible in 1372.
Or I am wrong again

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

Oh. I always thought that Hungary-Poland was kind of personal union, that ends with death of Louis - probably, because Catherine and Louis of Orlean expected to rule either Hungary or Poland.
But even if Louis II is heir for the united country, it seems that in 1372 Maria is still a valuable bride, as if Louis II dies childless, she can be the queen of Hungary-Poland, and the peace is needed for Charles IV and Louis of Hungary - so, from this point of view the marriage Sigismund-Maria seems possible in 1372.
Or I am wrong again

It was personal union, but it ending with death of Louis wasn't intended, it was just a side effect of circumstances of Louis's death. Louis II might die or might not die, and IMHO from Charles IV's POV ITTL, splitting up the Hungarian giant encircling his lands is the better option than waiting for child's death.

 

[lokaloki]

It was personal union, but it ending with death of Louis wasn't intended, it was just a side effect of circumstances of Louis's death. Louis II might die or might not die, and IMHO from Charles IV's POV ITTL, splitting up the Hungarian giant encircling his lands is the better option than waiting for child's death.

Maybe, it is more logical to start the war after death of Casimir? Louis II was born in July, Casimir died in October, Sigismund was born in 1368 - so Charles can claims the thron for Sigismund or for Wenceslaus in 1370 already. And Poles can support Charles in 1370 - or after several years of regency of Queen-mother, but before Louis I dies.
And one more question - from my understanding, Casimir wanted Hungary for himself and his son. Will be happy to know that Louis I already has the son? Can (and will) he break the agreement, as he still has three months and no chances to inherit Hungary? Can I ask @Jan Olbracht ?

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

Maybe, it is more logical to start the war after death of Casimir? Louis II was born in July, Casimir died in October, Sigismund was born in 1368 - so Charles can claims the thron for Sigismund or for Wenceslaus in 1370 already. And Poles can support Charles in 1370 - or after several years of regency of Queen-mother, but before Louis I dies.
And one more question - from my understanding, Casimir wanted Hungary for himself and his son. Will be happy to know that Louis I already has the son? Can (and will) he break the agreement, as he still has three months and no chances to inherit Hungary? Can I ask @Jan Olbracht ?

Casimir didn't want Hungary for his son, he knew it's not tenable, Casimir's pact was one sided. I think it would take time for Poles to be fed up with Angevin rule.

 

[material_boy]

Hedwig probably would go on to marry Sigismund of Luxembourg, if his father would reconcile with Luxembourgs that is, because Charles IV won't be happy about Hungarian giant encircling his possesions

I wonder if this means no division of Charles IV's lands, wanting to keep them together so Wenceslaus can better stand up to the Angevin giant on his doorstep. (Not that it would help all that much -- Wenceslaus is still a terrible drunk. Seems like a high chance that a landless Sigismund deposes him in ATL.)