Leningrad Falls in German hands on Sept 15, 1941

[DrakonFin]

If the Germans really follow the Hitler plan and hold the ring and shoot anybody who tries to surrender, I suspect the civilian polulation would go north to Finnish lines and surrender there. This will lead to some immediate squabbling since the Finns will need help to feed these people and might just send them all to some point on their front and return them to the Soviets. In the winter without food it will be the death march for sure, and everybody in the world will soon know.

Finland has no way of feeding or housing a major number of Soviet civilians, even if the government wanted to. IOTL, Finns did not have the resources to adequately feed or house even the Soviet POWs that were captured during the attack and the death rates in POW camps '41-'42 were horrible. It was partly racism and poor organisation, too, but also for some parts of the Finnish civilian population the conditions during that winter were close to famine.

So, yes. A huge part of the Soviet civilians who seek refuge in Finland would die in Finland, because of a combination of malnutrition, cold and disease in makeshift camps. Even if the Finns would genuinely try to help them.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Just like how the Rostov Campaign impeded Babi Yar, right?



Warsaw wasn't to be razed, it was to be demoted to a provincial town while the Poles were to be slaughtered regardless of creed or religion. The Nazis wanted this as one of their major objectives. If Hitler says yes and the generals say no, the generals get sacked and Hitler gets what he wants.



On the contrary, they get more Lend-Lease than IOTL and the democracies lose any illusions tat the Nazis are the kind of people any kind of negotiated peace is conceivable or useful to, while Cold War-style rhetoric in WWII becomes politically impossible until Germany is clearly in its death throes. The Allies' Lend Lease IOTL was motivated by the desperate fear of a Soviet collapse, this only strengthens that fear over OTL.

the Babi-Yar 2 day massacre was 1 once percent of Leningrad, and they didn't even knock down buildings. And even that one percent without knocking down buildings/destroying infrastructure created a serious ammo shortage; and created an out of control disease problem because they didn't know what to do with all the bodies

Himmler wrote to paper the warsaw was to be razed and then rebuilt as a small town for ethnic germans from holland

Hopkins was at first luke warm on the lend lease because it seemed russia would be defeated, losing their second city would be a serious reinforcement to that notion

And the massacres will only change minds if people know about them... if the germans cut the city off and kill everyone, it may not known for some time what they have done

 

[BlairWitch749]

So how connected to the Wehrmacht and SS do you believe people should have been in order to be mass executed by the Red Army and NKVD for besides being members?

For the Red Army and NKVD it's different than say a post war war crimes tribunal.

If I was Ivan Frontovik, and my house had been smashed/family killed/taken to horrible prison conditions along with most of the men in my platoon having experienced the same horrors, I can't say I would take any German prisoners and would be very resistant to discipline against such action

For real war crimes trials it would be overwhelming to go below staff officers and 3 star general (all of whom I would hang)

 

[kclcmdr]

I repeat this from Post 20 so that folks can see what the OOB of AGN is and
how the depleted forces ; once refitted ; can be used elsewhere after Sept. 41.

Army Group North OOB is below

AGN had Two Infantry Armies and One Armoured Army

18th Army had 7 German Infantry Divisions
16th Army had 7 German Infantry Divisions
4th Armoured had 3 Tank Divisions, 3 Motorized Divisions and 2 Infantry Divisions
In reserve would be 1 Security Division, 5 Infantry Divisions and assorted Brigades and Regiments

What percentage of these two German Armies' exhausted Infantry Divisions be still at good combat strength after a possibly rather lengthly attrition struggle to break and hold Leningrad and be refitted and used again in combat after Sept 41 is up to speculation...

 

[Snake Featherston]

the Babi-Yar 2 day massacre was 1 once percent of Leningrad, and they didn't even knock down buildings. And even that one percent without knocking down buildings/destroying infrastructure created a serious ammo shortage; and created an out of control disease problem because they didn't know what to do with all the bodies

Himmler wrote to paper the warsaw was to be razed and then rebuilt as a small town for ethnic germans from holland

Hopkins was at first luke warm on the lend lease because it seemed russia would be defeated, losing their second city would be a serious reinforcement to that notion

And the massacres will only change minds if people know about them... if the germans cut the city off and kill everyone, it may not known for some time what they have done

As if the Nazi ideologues give a damn about a sane war effort in the first place. I'm not disputing the idea is a strategic loser, what I'm disputing is that given a chance to accomplish one of the key aspects of their major goal, destroying Eastern Slavic civilization and turning the pittance of survivors into perpetual slaves the Nazi ideologues wouldn't take their concept of the Vernichtung and put it over the Krieg.

 

[BlairWitch749]

As if the Nazi ideologues give a damn about a sane war effort in the first place. I'm not disputing the idea is a strategic loser, what I'm disputing is that given a chance to accomplish one of the key aspects of their major goal, destroying Eastern Slavic civilization and turning the pittance of survivors into perpetual slaves the Nazi ideologues wouldn't take their concept of the Vernichtung and put it over the Krieg.

I'm not even arguing that they wouldn't want to do that

I'm just saying they couldn't; the einsatzgruppen took 18 months to kill 1.5 million people (and that's all 4 einsatzgruppen) einsatzgruppen A doesn't have the resources to raze or kill everyone in Leningrad, they where overwhelmed with their kill lists in the baltic states, and AGN's troops will still be needed at the front. It's more likely that such an idea is postponed by the nazis and the war situation never lets them get to it

killing people with kar 98s up close and personal and shoving them in vans with modified exhaust is too slow and small scale to work on a city as big as leningrad and it's surrounding areas

 

[Catspoke]

I thought the Nazi plan for Leningrad was to just ring the city and let everyone starve to death, no bullets required, vs. something like the 1944 Wola Massacre where you try and shoot everyone.

So if you actually cut of the city from Lake Ladoga supply, it would be some time before Stalin let the city surrender if ever, or the city commander surrendered anyway or individuals just started deserting en masse, since the OTL winter was bad enough in reducing the city population, any extra famine might well reduce the city population enough to meet Nazi goals without actually having to shoot anybody themselves.

 

[Snake Featherston]

I'm not even arguing that they wouldn't want to do that

I'm just saying they couldn't; the einsatzgruppen took 18 months to kill 1.5 million people (and that's all 4 einsatzgruppen) einsatzgruppen A doesn't have the resources to raze or kill everyone in Leningrad, they where overwhelmed with their kill lists in the baltic states, and AGN's troops will still be needed at the front. It's more likely that such an idea is postponed by the nazis and the war situation never lets them get to it

killing people with kar 98s up close and personal and shoving them in vans with modified exhaust is too slow and small scale to work on a city as big as leningrad and it's surrounding areas

I'm saying that you may be right, but Hitler and company aren't really going to care either way. And if Hitler, Himmler, and Heydrich order this, they damn well will enforce it, rational war-waging bbe damned.

I thought the Nazi plan for Leningrad was to just ring the city and let everyone starve to death, no bullets required, vs. something like the 1944 Wola Massacre where you try and shoot everyone.

So if you actually cut of the city from Lake Ladoga supply, it would be some time before Stalin let the city surrender if ever, or the city commander surrendered anyway or individuals just started deserting en masse, since the OTL winter was bad enough in reducing the city population, any extra famine might well reduce the city population enough to meet Nazi goals without actually having to shoot anybody themselves.

Actually it was to raze it brick by brick in the process of conquering it. If it was simple starvation razing it brick by brick would have been irrelevant.

 

[King Gorilla]

As if the Nazi ideologues give a damn about a sane war effort in the first place. I'm not disputing the idea is a strategic loser, what I'm disputing is that given a chance to accomplish one of the key aspects of their major goal, destroying Eastern Slavic civilization and turning the pittance of survivors into perpetual slaves the Nazi ideologues wouldn't take their concept of the Vernichtung and put it over the Krieg.

True, but provided the war on the eastern front is still occuring, the immediate strategic reality will likely prevent such fever dreams from immediately occurring. Lenningrad's port facilities are likely to be put towards immediate use, and it will likely serve as a significant supply depot and transportation hub.

Likewise, despite the evident "inferiority" of Slavic civilization, the occupying Germans will be spending months if not years trying to loot every last piece of art from the city before its "destruction"

 

[BlondieBC]

Entirely wrong. The Germans aren't waiting for a "postwar" here, to them the slaughter of Leningrad and the war against the Western Front is all the same to them. What this does is get it through even the thick skulls of the Hitler fanboys of the 1940s that the only peace Nazis want is the peace of the graveyard, ensuring that Germany better enjoy its war as its peace will be a nightmare.

Besides your opinion, do you have any sources? Such as which SS units would be tasked with it? Had it even made it past "Hitler would like this done" to "Here is plan X waiting Hitler's approval"? The extermination groups were having logistical issues, which is part of the reason for the death camps.

Sure, If Hitler had the Red Button labeled, "Kill Jews Twice as Fast", he would have used it. Same for the Blue Button labeled, "Raze Leningrad immediately". But Hitler has to pull the resources from somewhere, and even with a Leningrad win, Hitler likely does not find the resources to complete the job, and he may not find the resources to begin the job in any material manner.

 

[Snake Featherston]

True, but provided the war on the eastern front is still occuring, the immediate strategic reality will likely prevent such fever dreams from immediately occurring. Lenningrad's port facilities are likely to be put towards immediate use, and it will likely serve as a significant supply depot and transportation hub.

Likewise, despite the evident "inferiority" of Slavic civilization, the occupying Germans will be spending months if not years trying to loot every last piece of art from the city before its "destruction"

Just like with Hungary in 1944, when the crying necessity was to use trains to send more effort to the war with the real enemy, the Soviets, but the choice was to send the Jewish population of Hungary to the ravenous maw of the gas chambers? People, be realistic: if the Nazis can murder civilians instead of fighting real soldiers, they'll always do the former.

Besides your opinion, do you have any sources? Such as which SS units would be tasked with it? Had it even made it past "Hitler would like this done" to "Here is plan X waiting Hitler's approval"? The extermination groups were having logistical issues, which is part of the reason for the death camps.

Sure, If Hitler had the Red Button labeled, "Kill Jews Twice as Fast", he would have used it. Same for the Blue Button labeled, "Raze Leningrad immediately". But Hitler has to pull the resources from somewhere, and even with a Leningrad win, Hitler likely does not find the resources to complete the job, and he may not find the resources to begin the job in any material manner.

Just like the Nazis showed perfect rationality in 1944 with regard to the same kind of mentality people are saying they show here?

 

[King Gorilla]

Just like with Hungary in 1944, when the crying necessity was to use trains to send more effort to the war with the real enemy, the Soviets, but the choice was to send the Jewish population of Hungary to the ravenous maw of the gas chambers? People, be realistic: if the Nazis can murder civilians instead of fighting real soldiers, they'll always do the former.

Yes, the civilian population will almost immediately begin to be liquidated. But allocating the engineers, explosives and the time for the annihilation of Leningrad is considerably more materially expensive than holocaust rail prioritizations. The fate of Leningrad is likely to be similar to the fate of Kiev.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Yes, the civilian population will almost immediately begin to be liquidated. But allocating the engineers, explosives and the time for the annihilation of Leningrad is considerably more materially expensive than holocaust rail prioritizations. The fate of Leningrad is likely to be similar to the fate of Kiev.

Ah, no. In 1941 the Nazis are much stronger than they were in 1944, and arrogance + logistical hubris = clusterfuck where that's concerned.

 

[King Gorilla]

Ah, no. In 1941 the Nazis are much stronger than they were in 1944, and arrogance + logistical hubris = clusterfuck where that's concerned.

But even with a successful encirclement and surrender, Leningrad is still at the logistical edge of the German lines. For the short term, a major working port is a significant boon. Also, German officers have their own selfish reasons for delaying the destruction of the metropolis. Leningrad will almost certainly be systematically looted of everything of value before its destroyed. For a city of millions, this will take time. I fully expect Goering to have squads devoted towards the private procurement of half of the Hermitage.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Ah, no. In 1941 the Nazis are much stronger than they were in 1944, and arrogance + logistical hubris = clusterfuck where that's concerned.

the nazi's were logistically better at mass murder in 44 than they were in 41

in 44 they had fully functioning death camps capable for killing off over 400k people per month at full speed ahead (with minimal german personel requirements) and those camps were situated on rail lines to easily assemble those to be liquidated; and the use of poison gas on the victims was not taxing on valuable war commodities like bullets or fuel (to create carbon monoxide)

in 41 their main weapon of death is men armed with kar98 rifles who have to shoot men women and children up close and personal in the head or neck (with a small amount done with the vans with modified exhaust) that's why the einsatzgruppen for all their brutality only killed about 10 percent of all nazi victims despite having a 3 year free hand to shoot almost anyone they wanted... rooting out and shooting people is too ineffecient and drains too many resources... that's why things like babi yar didn't happen again; it was too overwhelming to try and do 10k kills in a day with rifles;

even just rounding up all the people in leningrad would be a titanic undertaking that the nazi's probably wouldn't be able to find the manpower to handle

 

[Snake Featherston]

But even with a successful encirclement and surrender, Leningrad is still at the logistical edge of the German lines. For the short term, a major working port is a significant boon. Also, German officers have their own selfish reasons for delaying the destruction of the metropolis. Leningrad will almost certainly be systematically looted of everything of value before its destroyed. For a city of millions, this will take time. I fully expect Goering to have squads devoted towards the private procurement of half of the Hermitage.

Again, this is all perfectly logical and rational.....but we're discussing Hitler and his sorry assclowns. These aren't the kind of people who'd think on these lines.

the nazi's were logistically better at mass murder in 44 than they were in 41

in 44 they had fully functioning death camps capable for killing off over 400k people per month at full speed ahead (with minimal german personel requirements) and those camps were situated on rail lines to easily assemble those to be liquidated; and the use of poison gas on the victims was not taxing on valuable war commodities like bullets or fuel (to create carbon monoxide)

in 41 their main weapon of death is men armed with kar98 rifles who have to shoot men women and children up close and personal in the head or neck (with a small amount done with the vans with modified exhaust) that's why the einsatzgruppen for all their brutality only killed about 10 percent of all nazi victims despite having a 3 year free hand to shoot almost anyone they wanted... rooting out and shooting people is too ineffecient and drains too many resources... that's why things like babi yar didn't happen again; it was too overwhelming to try and do 10k kills in a day with rifles;

even just rounding up all the people in leningrad would be a titanic undertaking that the nazi's probably wouldn't be able to find the manpower to handle

Sure, all that you say has a certain logic to it, but we're discussing a movement which has a chance to accomplish one of its stated objectives, that stated objective like so many others being entirely outside its means to feasibly accomplish.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Again, this is all perfectly logical and rational.....but we're discussing Hitler and his sorry assclowns. These aren't the kind of people who'd think on these lines.



Sure, all that you say has a certain logic to it, but we're discussing a movement which has a chance to accomplish one of its stated objectives, that stated objective like so many others being entirely outside its means to feasibly accomplish.

the outside the means part precludes the most diabolic of scenarios for the city in all likelyhood

heer manpower would not be detached for that kind of operation both because the front would continue to be too busy for them to be released, but also because Hitler and the Von's preferred that work to be done by the SS scumbag brigades; and simply put the SS scumbag brigades had open ended orders to kill the whole of white russia (more or less) and they simply couldn't do it because their tools where ineffecient and the task was far too big for their manpower

as others said, the city has a value to the war effort, and the first murder spree that creates an out of control standing corpse problem creating a wave of disease is going to disaude them from doing that again and from then on (depending on the military situation) the city becomes just another harshly treated in Germany custody like Orel, Kharkov, Odessa or Kiev

remember in 41 hitler is still fairly lucid, when AGN COS reports back that the spree is rendering the port inoperable due to mass contamination in the area, Hitler will see the value in not having piles of dead bodies laying around and will order the city to either be disposed of later (more likely) or for some other method to be found (which could see the citizens transported back to the death camps; although due to the distances involved, this would likely only be done on smallish scale)

 

[Snake Featherston]

the outside the means part precludes the most diabolic of scenarios for the city in all likelyhood

heer manpower would not be detached for that kind of operation both because the front would continue to be too busy for them to be released, but also because Hitler and the Von's preferred that work to be done by the SS scumbag brigades; and simply put the SS scumbag brigades had open ended orders to kill the whole of white russia (more or less) and they simply couldn't do it because their tools where ineffecient and the task was far too big for their manpower

as others said, the city has a value to the war effort, and the first murder spree that creates an out of control standing corpse problem creating a wave of disease is going to disaude them from doing that again and from then on (depending on the military situation) the city becomes just another harshly treated in Germany custody like Orel, Kharkov, Odessa or Kiev

remember in 41 hitler is still fairly lucid, when AGN COS reports back that the spree is rendering the port inoperable due to mass contamination in the area, Hitler will see the value in not having piles of dead bodies laying around and will order the city to either be disposed of later (more likely) or for some other method to be found (which could see the citizens transported back to the death camps; although due to the distances involved, this would likely only be done on smallish scale)

In 1941 Hitler being lucid didn't impair him from ordering the equally stupid and outside Germany's means Operation Typhoon. Hitler would no doubt rationalize this as permanently freeing AGN for operations further south by reducing any necessity for it to maintain troops on the Baltic or some similar razor-thin smokescreen to deceive those wanting to be deceived. None of those cities included their wholesale destruction in the Nazi objectives of 1941: Leningrad did. It's the major distinction between it and the others.

 

[John Farson]

So a Rape of Leningrad would result in the entire German officer corps and surviving Nazi party leadership (from top to bottom) being liquidated by the Soviets (those captured by the Soviets, that is) in the equivalent of 100 Katyn Massacres at war's end?

 

[Snake Featherston]

So a Rape of Leningrad would result in the entire German officer corps and surviving Nazi party leadership (from top to bottom) being liquidated by the Soviets (those captured by the Soviets, that is) in the equivalent of 100 Katyn Massacres at war's end?

No, primarily the ones in the Soviet sphere, and the majority of people targeted in such atrocities would in all probability be as innocent as anyone, however the democracies are going to care rather less when it's clear that Nazis don't have any civilized concepts of war.