Latest Possible US Multiparty System?

I've been looking into the history of several elections in the 1960's and 70's. While doing this I ran across the faithless elector, Roger MacBride, cast a single electorial vote for the Libertarian party.

Anyways, my question was, what is the latest possible data for the US to develop a multipaty system?
 
Well, first-past-the-post often tends to favour a strong two-party system (as in the United States) or a "two-and-a-half party system" as in Canada or the UK, there two parties heavily dominates the political scene. I believe that the reason why we do not have a notable third party in the US is because of the separation of powers. You aren't voting for which president you want when you vote for your congressman and vice versa, unlike in the UK and Canada where a vote for your MP is a de facto vote for who you want for Prime Minister. This allows the representatives to be somewhat more maverick-y, if that is even a word, and not allow themselves to be dominated by the top of the party. Add to it that the US has a far stronger history of primaries than both of Canada and the UK and there is far less demand for "we want an alternative to the two parties" since it is much easier to change the parties from within in the US and to make sure that the nominee in your district differs from the "official party line." Furthermore, since the vote for the representative is distinct from the vote for the President, in congressional (and senatorial) elections, the idea of voting for an independent is not a large problem, because it won't lead to any situation of a "minority government that may be destroyed in a vote of no-confidence."

Thus, if you really want to have a strong multi-party system in the US, I'd say that you need to change the electoral system, and you need to do this in a time when third parties would still ocassionally rise up and perform more than just respectably (the Progressive parties of Roosevelt and La Follette, the Socialist party under Eugene V. Debs, etc.) so that more people would be open to the idea. I'd suggest the 1920s-1930s. In the 1930s, the Nebraska state legislature enjoyed a radical reform as the upper and lower chambers were merged into a unicameral body, which has remained the only one of its kind in the United States. This demonstrates that it is indeed possible for changes to the structure of state level government, or that it at least was.

So what would I propose you do...? You should make sure that the US introduces an electoral system nicer to third parties. While I fear that the Scandinavian model of party-list proportional representation is unlikely to be adopted in the US, the Single Transferable Vote may actually go through.

So take a big state, influential, with a streak of political maverickism to it, namely California, sometime in the Depression and have them introduce a bill which makes the California State Assembly elected by the Single Transferable Vote. The effect will be that the Progressive Party will enjoy greater influence in the state government, and perhaps the Socialists will also pick up a seat or two at times. Over time, you could have this spread over the United States, with more and more states adopting it, before finally some Amendment to the Constitution makes the electoral system to the House of Representatives STV.

In the Presidential election, you could then have two candidates nominated by the two "coalitions": the centre-left coalition of the Greens, the Progressives and the Democrats, and the centre-right coalition of the Libertarians and the Republicans.

I freely admit that it would be a stretch of the mind, but it is the best I can offer, I am afraid...
 
Maybe in the future -- who knows.

It could have happened pretty easily in the first years of the republic, before party lines hardened.

There were three distinct visions for the country in 1860. [Four presidential candidates who received electoral votes in fact, but I'm not sure how distinct the southern candidates were from each other]. If the South hadn't seceded, then for a time at least there could have been Republican, Democrat and hard-line southern parties.

During the late 30s. Hoover had failed; Roosevelt was struggling. Opening for a left-wing party?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
With our current voting system, you would need a regional party allied with another national party for President. I guess one could argue that the Republicans with the evangelical wing and the business wing are two parties running under one name plate.


Ideas

1) Maybe a small Utah Mormon Congressmen. They would endorse the Republicans for President. A Charismatic leader could do this at any time.

2) If Puerto Rico becomes a state, i could see the "Rico Party".

3) For a large regional party, maybe if the civil rights movement had failed in the 1960's, and the southern leaders had been more talented, maybe we could have the "Confederate Party"


To get a true national party, we need to get rid of first past the post voting. A parliament system works well, even though I am unaware of any serious consideration of it in modern times.


The last reasonable POD is when we change the way we elect Senators. Perhaps each state elects two senator every six years, and the top two vote winners are elected. This would open up room for third party Senators.
 
Would there be a way to do that without changing the US constitution? I was thinking of starting a timeline with the Libertarians gaining "major" party status, i.e, they have a few senators and representatives, and win three or four states every election.
 
I was actually hoping that the last election (2008) would wind up splitting both parties.

IMO that is the only way you're going to get more than two parties in the US at present because if one party splits and the other doesn't, it is committing suicide. However, if a pair of hyper-ambitious senators running for POTUS are close to tied in the polls and each have their own hard-core base of support AND they see the other party is ripe for fragmentation... they might both refuse to withdraw from the race.

If the Democrats had split at the right moment, I suspect the Republicans would have too. The Republicans have so many internal sub-groups I'm amazed they hold together as it is; show the major factions a chance to bolt while still having a shot at the White House and I think they would.

The odds, naturally, are low, but I think 2008 is as close as we've ever come in my lifetime, anyway.
 
Would there be a way to do that without changing the US constitution? I was thinking of starting a timeline with the Libertarians gaining "major" party status, i.e, they have a few senators and representatives, and win three or four states every election.

Parties exist nowhere in the Constitution. In the original version the VP was supposed to be the Presidential candidate who got the 2nd most votes - picture Bush as POTUS with Gore as his veep!

The electoral college, by its nature, strongly favors having only two serious candidates for POTUS, which in turn of course encourages a bipartisan system. The country, however, has become far too big for those parties to be anything but 'big tent' collectives if they want to be serious contenders for POTUS. Every party wants to be a contender for POTUS - I bet half the US citizens on this message board can name POTUS and tell a dozen things about them, but can't name their own US Senators or their Congress(wo)man.

I think removing the electoral college would cause both parties to fragment, but I can't see either one supporting the change.
 
I was thinking of starting a timeline with the Libertarians gaining "major" party status, i.e, they have a few senators and representatives, and win three or four states every election.

Do the libertarians really have any senators or represenatives who ran as Libertarians? I think their successes have been limited libertarian leaning Democrats or Republicans who may promote some libertarian concepts. Likewise, I do not think any Libertarian has been elected as a governor.

Another third party possible would be a religous based plit from secular conservatives in the Republican Party. These people then form their own party. As a side note, there are two fundamentalist religous parties existing today, but they are very small.
 
The only way you can get a sustained multiparty system in the U.S. is by drastically changing the electoral system. Both FPTP and presidentialism tend towards a two-party system, and when you combine them you get an especially large bias for it.

The problem with regional or third parties in the U.S. context is that unless they can credibly compete for the presidency, parties get marginalized. The only exception tends to be small state-based parties, which occasionally can emerge. (The MN Farmer-Labor Party, for example.)

One slightly smaller change would be to continue "electoral fusion." Historically, one candidate could appear on the ballot as the nominee of more than one party. That's still true in a few states like New York and Connecticut, but historically it was true throughout the country. If it applied nationwide, then while you'd still get a largely two-party system, you might get a two-bloc system, where presidential nominations are made by broader left and right blocs.

Electoral Fusion was banned in most states in the early 20th Century. It was however, part of a lawsuit that reached the Supreme Court in the '90s - it went down to I think a 7-2 defeat, but had the outcome been the reverse it might be legal nationwide.
 
Alright then. So basically the only way for a multiparty system in the US is for both major parties to fragment.
 
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