Valdemar II
Banned
Well, to some extent the improvements may happen independently of direct government action. The IR in OTL was hardly government-sponsored, of course (at least in its British beginnings). So if you have a broadly forward-thinking Spanish government which is doing its best to get their country generally back on track, then that may allow some of the private investments in Aururian crops and related things which will make their country more profitable and, eventually stable.
That's a long way from developing a native IR, or even adopting much in the way of industrialisation, but it would still be a distinctly different place from OTL.
Yes the IR and the North European agricultural revolution was mostly independently of direct government action, but it happened in structures the government sat up. In the 18th century much of the internal tariffs and cutoms in many countries was removed and replaced with government income through direct taxation, this was a major part of making economy of scale viable. There was also investments into things like education.
If we don't see a central state move the taxes from tariffs and customs to direct taxation we risk end up with states dominated by low noble ruling their own fiefs as petty princes.
It would be significant different from OTL. In fact it will likely result in economies of scale being rare and limited to specialised products and to larger domains.
That, or Sicily may eventually spread to direct political control of parts of southern Italy. That won't happen soon; the whole reason that Sicily reforms internally is that geopolitics means that it is not in a position to expand and waste its revenues on foreign ventures. But in time, that may change, and if Sicily is strong enough, it may be making some expansion of its own.
Seems likely
And it's something which Aururian states have had for millennia. (It's essentially why I figured that they could develop at the pace they did even with a much smaller population than the Old World).
As for the scale of the cultural shift it could produce, the example I'm thinking of is that when ancient Greece developed a similar level of urbanisation and non-agricultural specialist classes (thanks to imported food, in that case), it produced the Golden Age of Philosophy, among much else.
It's well thought out, specialised urban population was a major source of innovation. Of course to the increased urbanisation of the rest of the world I can't help together with the Aururians plagues, we will likely see earlier investments into things like sewers and readoption of aquaducts. Infrastructural the effect are likely going to be primitive but impressive.
Those would certainly be areas which the new areas could invest in profitably. Cheese might not keep as well in the Mediterranean climate as it did in northern Europe, but it should still be viable over short distances. Lots of wine etc being distilled into brandy and other stronger alcoholic beverages would be particularly viable, I'd think. Transport costs would be lower than for wine itself, and preservation easier.
Yes, of course cheese can be kept better if they, as the Greeks and Turks do, brine them. So the result could be a earlier spread of feta.
Hmm. That could mean even more in the way of local workshops replace individual craft weavers within a couple of villages - hardly the same stuff as mass production of textiles which happened in OTL, but a distinct technological and cultural shift in its own right.
Maybe it could also mean that every family have a manual loom in their house. I think this are especially likely in North Europe, because the crops you have described as viable there, would be mostly used in areas with sandy soil, there sheeps also happens to be very common.
It wouldn't be the OTL route to the Industrial Revolution, but this would still see the development of a rising middle class (mostly urban, in this case), with growing disposable incomes and an inclination to invest in something. The development of such a growing market would encourage the rise of long-distance transportation, particularly falling transport costs, so that the middle class can import items that they want.
Yes of course a lot depend on the changes in taxation as mentioned earlier. In areas where we doesn't see such reforms we could still see it, but in would be primary in areas with few tradebarriers like coastal towns and settlements, which again make the Aegean one of the prime area for developments, even if the Ottomans doesn't reforms.
Such transportation need not be the same as it was in OTL during the leadup to the IR, but it would still be an incentive. I'm particularly thinking of greater production of canals and horse-drawn railways, rather than steam railways as in OTL. These would be viable enough if the market was there (ie enough of a middle class with investment income).
Yes and the freed up labour would make such investments more viable, through I think it will win out in areas with corvee are common.
And, ironically enough, they would stifle any later growth of railways in areas with an extensive canal net. Canals in OTL were more capital-intensive to build than railways (but TTL would have more labour available), but had much lower operating costs per unit of distance. That would make for a different path to industrialisation.
Yes of course with the very developed canal network in Germany and UK we did see elements of it in OTL. But a even more and earlier canal network would in many way handicap the development of trains. Through horse-drawn railways translate very well into a stream driven one, it's just need to replace the source of power.
It's certainly one model, but what interests me most of all is what the middle class invest their money in. If it's anything which encourages better transportation methods (steam railways were hardly the only option), then things could get quite interesting.
I don't think they will invest into that, it will be mostly nobles and the state investing in such things. The urban middle class often invested in just as a important infrastructure; education. Beside that they will likely invest in colonial trading companies and workshops/manufactories.
A wealthier Ottoman Empire has always sounded like one of the things which TTL is likely to produce, particularly the naval presence. I will also need to look into how readily the Ottomans can access timber. If deforestation is severe, then they may be hindered. Unless they, too, import suitable new fast-growing trees. (I wonder what the Ottoman word will be for blue gums).
You have a few things going both way, the sudden loss of population will leave a lot of second rate soil freed up from agriculture, which may push deforestation back and even allow forests to spread. This effect will only receive a borst from the fact that Aurorian crops give a greater yield keeping the a two generation or three away from needing to take up agriculture in those areas to survive. So we may very well see large areas untouched for almost a century, this may be enough for the forests to reestablish themselves. If in that centuries the Ottoman Empire need timber to the navy, we may also see the state protect these forested areas with greater or lesser succes.
Some European powers were prepared to make that accommodation at times anyway (France, especially), but I'm not sure how much that would be realpolitik more than anything else.
It was fundamental realpoliutik, France saw no problem with ally with Lutheran Sweden and Calvinist-Lutheran Brandenburg while killing and deporting Protestants at home.
The position of Aururian religions will be interesting, but I expect that the main religions where Aururian religions prosper will be distant enough that Europe will still think of Islam as the Other for at least a couple of centuries.
A very good point.
True. Will naval demands be enough to stimulate timber plantations in Ottoman territory? Perhaps, but probably not. IIRC correctly, Venice did realise the consequences of deforestation eventually and made some late attempts to establish forestry and plantations, but it was too little too late.
I think the Ottoman are more likely to push it than the Venetians, the Ottoman have a stronger centralised state than Venice and they have much more potential territories to set aside to such purposes.
There are one aspect I have though about. Urban minorities, in OTL it was common that a urban minority belonged to another linguistic, religious or cultural culture than the rural upland. This more or less ended with the exploding urbanisation of the 19th century.
Here we have two different factor working two different ways, the plagues are going decimate the urban minorities making room for the uplanders or foreigners to move in. On the other hand the earlier increase in natural urbanisation rate, will allow a slower urbanisation making the urban minorities able to fill the cities with natural increasing population and slow assimilation. So we may see much bigger and viable urban minorities when the second wave of urbanisation hit.