In terms of pre-1750 cultivation of cannabis, which is the comparable period here, I'm not at all sure that market size had much to do with it. From what I can see, it was mostly small-scale experimentation for local producers without much of an export market, leading to a great many varieties due to different microclimates, genetics, etc.
Market size would be important if you want a market with diverse tastes in terms of what strains they would demand. These diverse demands would take time to develop, and the preliminary stages of experimentation with cannabis would likely follow the outlines you mentioned. But for an expansive cannabis market with room for several different types of cannabis varieties market size is key.
The small-scale experimentation you mention usually led to just one strain that was suited to the local environment, and that would apparently fulfill all the local demand for cannabis. But someone taking into account the international market would notice the possibilities of developing many different varieties they can grow and export.
The indica variety was native to the northern half of the subcontinent, and notably grown in Bengal, which is where the Nuttana visit. But that's also where Europeans visit, and where any other Aururians (if they make it to India at all, of course), will likely visit. The indica strain was not inaccessible.
Was the indica variety grown in Bengal? The region has a tropical to sub-tropical climate not quite suited to the cultivation of indica cannabis which grew readily in dry and cool climates (like the Himalayan foothills). Indica and sativa weren't hybridized by that point, so they couldn't have grown tropical-adapted hybrids either.
I have no sources on 18th century cannabis cultivation in Bengal but my guess would be that it would've been based on sativa varieties. No information as to whether they had any specific landraces.
Even today, the indica varieties are only naturally found in the mountaineous north of the Indian Subcontinent.
The Atherton tablelands have an excellent climate and good soil, but in the context of the early Nuttana, are not really suitable for wide-scale agriculture. This is because it would require extensive labour to clear the rainforest, and because the transport links to the coast make agriculture too expensive. For good reason, most Nuttana agriculture is concentrated in coastal regions because the land transport in their area is abysmal, to put it mildly. Some commodities can withstand the travel costs from being collected inland (*cough* gold *cough*), but not mainstream agriculture. Whatever crops the Nuttana are growing would be concentrated in more coastal localities. This may well include cannabis.
Cannabis could become a valuable enough cash-crop in time for the Atherton tablelands to become home to its cultivation. Though it would be by the point that the Nuttana already have a growing market and are exporting several cannabis varieties and products, making it economically viable to create transport links through the rainforest (using the labour of elephants I imagine).
Clearing forest cover is not necessary in an agroforestry system, so you wouldn't quite need to clear the rainforest to grow cannabis, just maintain a few arable areas for cannabis within a larger agroforestry system. So this should cut down on the labour required to expand into the tablelands.
Though the Nuttana would have to experiment with cannabis within the coastal regions you mentioned before expanding cultivation westwards, so they should have readymade cannabis varieties to expand the production of.
Cannabis isn't hard to transport either, the main worry would be about mold and things of that nature, if we're assuming the cannabis is cured at the place of cultivation and transported to where they can be packaged and exported. It's a light in weight and high in value product (unlike gold, which is more valuable but not as easily transported).
In contrast, the Five Rivers or Durigal are about cool enough for where the indica species/subspecies originated (foothills of the Himalayas, and generally dry climate too), and would have a decent chance of producing quality crops with low transport costs.
True, and it's not impossible for them to get their hands on the indica variety, but I would expect the Nuttana to get their hands on it first since it's in an out of the way place and the Nuttana are natural explorers.
For the Five Rivers or Durigal to get it I would pin the Nuttana as the more likely ones they can get it from than the Europeans, whether it's by bribing someone to part with a few seeds (or, luckily, finding some Nuttana cannabis with seeds in already).
So at some point I would imagine indica cannabis or more likely some indica dominant hybrid to end up there.
This era does have the risk of counterfeiting considerably, of course, but yes, this is one advantage the Nuttana will have in the Old World. I'm not sure whether they will have the same advantage within Aururia, because that kind of marketing already exists for premium aromatics (from the Five Rivers), which could be transferred to new products.
Counterfeiting a cannabis product containing cannabis only grown by the Nuttana wouldn't be so easy. Sure, one could mime the packaging and branding and fill it with an inferior product - but if that is happening at all it would mean that the Nuttana have a massive enough market share in cannabis already for nefarious parties to take advantage.
The effectiveness of marketing here would be to make Nuttana cannabis the first in premium cannabis before anyone else in Aururia gets in on it. Moving fast and cornering a market would make it hard for competitors even if they can match the Nuttana in product quality and marketing aptitude.
And the nature of cannabis itself allows for multiple varieties that can be individually marketed, so it's not like the Nuttana would be only exporting one kind of cannabis. I would imagine multiple products, and likely a lot of internal competition between Nuttana cannabis producers making sure that Nuttana cannabis doesn't stay stagnant.
The Five Rivers have had export markets for aromatic compounds (incenses, perfumes etc) for centuries and needed to package them in suitable forms so that volatile compounds are not lost. Those export markets have included both by land (along the Spice Roads) and sea (via the Nangu). These techniques are easily adaptable to kunduri (once smoked) and cannabis (if adopted). If anything, the Nuttana can learn suitable packaging techniques from the Five Rivers.
The packaging required for those items would likely be too expensive for a product like cannabis, when all it needs is airtight packaging that would protect it from damp and heat. Instead of preserving volatile compounds (which would require some complicated containets) you're just keeping plant material dry and cool and free of mold. Which is basically what the Chinese were trying to accomplish with how they packed tea for export to Europe, which is why it might be better to copy that packaging for cannabis.
Five Rivers are a significant market because they are a high-wage, low transport cost internal market with a long history of experimentation and appreciation of aromatics. They also have an export market for aromatics (Durigal, the spice countries, the Mutjing, some to the Ajuntja) which encourages them to explore options which might be profitable elsewhere. This is not a market on the same scale as the Nuttana may have access to, of course, but is sufficient to encourage experimentation.
The drawbacks of a smaller overall market size is that you can't as easily develop and economy of scale. With the Nuttana able to develop an economy of scale with cannabis, they'll still be able to compete with Five Rivers cannabis products within their own markets. So even in their own markets, they probably share it with Nuttana products.
The question is why the Nuttana are growing cannabis in the first place before the selective breeding has time to work, and who they're selling it to in the meantime. They won't be growing it on any scale unless they're exporting it to someone, and once they're exporting it, then others will notice that it is being sold and wonder if they can do the same.
Basically I see two possible paths for cannabis to arrive in Aururia, and both of them end up with it spreading:
(1) The Nuttana get it first, and naturally begin selling it. If they have it first, then even low-grade cannabis will still be exportable across Aururia, since there is no competition from locally-grown production. Other Aururians then become familiar with the product and grow it locally from what's supplied and/or ask Europeans to obtain samples for them.
(2) Europeans bring cannabis to other areas of Aururia as possible trade goods. (Most likely into the Five Rivers to trade for silver, dyes or kunduri, or possibly Durigal or the spice regions). Local cultivation soon follows and spreads as it is traded. The Nuttana notice quickly (as they would) and obtain samples for themselves to experiment with.
I would back scenario 1) since the Europeans didn't see cannabis as important a trade good as things like textiles, if indeed they saw any trade value in it at all. I would imagine them realizing the value but only after the Nuttana have kickstarted a cannabis market within Aururia of their own accord.
Assuming in 1) that the Nuttana selling around cannabis in Aururia causes it to be cultivated in places, the clear path to market supremacy would be hybridization with indica, and the practice of feminizing seeds so that the cannabis you export won't have pesky seeds that your competitors can use to grow your product).
With this, I was referring more for (some) Aururians being astute enough to know the difference, and seeking to import breeding stock. If, say, the Yadji Regent offers some gold or a Tjibarri faction leader offer some silver, Europeans will happily find some breeding stock.
That's fair, but in time the best breeding stock would be in the hands of the Nuttana through selective breeding and hybridization. The bribes might have to be heavier but it's entirely possible for this sort of economic subterfuge to happen once Nuttana cannabis becomes truly established.
The Nuttana aren't the only ones skilled in marketing aromatic products. What I think is the most likely outcome is that within southern Aururia production is dominated by the Five Rivers (or less likely the Yadji) while the Nuttana use their widespread trading contacts to sell premium products across much of Asia and possibly further afield.
While the production within southern Aururia might be centred on the Five Rivers, I think their products will end up sharing the market with Nuttana products in some capacity. A situation that would clearly involve some vigorous competition since the Nuttana would hate to lose a major Aururian market and the Five Rivers would hate to see their local market flooded with Nuttana goods.
Plirism is more into meditation and contemplation in order to gain clear insight into this world, rather than using psychoactives to give access to "another realm". Perhaps one or two of the more esoteric Plirite schools take it up in a small way, but it would be more of a Durigal and/or Tiayal thing, really.
Speaking of meditation, is there any concept of enlightenment within Plirism, and within Aururia in general? Have there been any historical figures considered enlightened beings.
In basically all cultures where meditation is prevalent (India & East Asia) there's the idea of enlightenment, with meditation being the primary path to it.
The reason for the connection between meditation and enlightenment is that meditation does seemingly lead to profound psychological changes in long-term practitioners, thus the idea of the enlightened mind in ancient meditating spiritualities.
Is the Good Man considered to have reached his understanding through meditation? If so, a Plirite idea of enlightenment might be to meditate until one reaches an equivalent level of understanding of the cosmos as the Good Man.
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I also wanted to mention an idea I had. Could the Kogung incite a "Trans-Pacific" slave trade with the Nuttana by demanding slave labour to build their new homeland? Perhaps the Nuttana can supply Papuan slaves in some numbers, and the Kogung could use these first generation slaves as stock (basically condemning these people to generational slavery) to ensure further generations of slaves in order to fulfill labour needs in the Kogung homeland.
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