TTL's Continuation War will cause domestic butterflies at Finland, since the beginning of hostilities will most likely be different. I highly doubt that Stalin would allow the Finns to retake land all the way down to the outskirts of Leningrad at the same time when the Germans are using Finnish territory as a base of operations in the North.
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https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/keynes-cruisers.388788/page-19#post-13257340
Hanko naval base, 5 mile lake shore buffer on Lake Lagoda, everything 10 miles to the east of Viipuri, changes to the border/garrison near Petsamo.
Kormoran seems to have fired under a false flag - which is illegal. You can sail under any colours, but you have to strike them and show your true colours before engaging.
False Colors and Dummy Ships: The Use of Ruse ... - Naval War Colleg
(pdf file)
And it is only relevant if A) Columbo reported it
Or B) kormoran is captured
Or C) Germany loses
The usual technique for raiders was to run up the true national flag about a half a second before firing. Most commonly raiders would tend to masquerade as neutrals. Again, the timing is key - if the national flag/naval ensign is visible when the first shot is fired then it is "legal" if a half second later, not. In reality raiders/crews only got in to trouble if they committed more "conventional" crimes such as mistreating prisoners, sinking lifeboats full of survivors and so forth.
Fascists. Even the Soviets did not pretend that Germany was a plutocracy,
As for Finland - Finland had been coordinating with Germany for several weeks before BARBAROSSA. German troops were deployed in Finnish territory, including the Gebirgskorps in arctic Finland. Soviet aircraft attacked Finnish air bases on 25 June. Gebirgskorps crossed the border on 29 June.
So by 1 July, Finland is at war with the USSR and it's too late to make a deal. Besides which a separate deal would be seen as a betrayal by Germany.
That is OTl not TTL. The Soviets got a bloodier nose in this TTL and knew Finnish air defenses were better so June 25 raids never launched
Or even before. But it is going to be a long time before the Allies even have Crete secure.
If they ever do; IMO they can't hold Crete.
The Axis will establish air supremacy over Crete; they can't afford not to. That makes any Allied supply runs extremely risky. And in month or two, when the Axis have gathered sufficient small craft, an amphibious attack. The Allies simply don't have enough troops to defend the entire northern coast of Crete: 250 km. They have essentially no vehicles or fuel to move troops around to respond to an attack. Once the Axis have a solid beachhead, they can reinforce at will, and the Allied garrison loses.
But perhaps the author has a different view, and it's his timeline.
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
The Axis problem is that it is now embroiled in the Soviet Union, which is going to be a resource sink like you wouldn't believe. If they divert resources to dealing with Crete, that's going to hamper what's going on in the East. The resources required for Crete may be small beer compared to what's happening in Russia, but it would be more than was required OTL.
All true. But the cost of leaving Crete alone, of allowing the Allies to build up airpower there, will be even greater. Allied Crete poses a deadly threat to the Italian Dodecanese; Mussoiini cares a lot more about that than the Eastern Front, or even Africa. Furthermore, Crete is a potential base for Allied attacks on other Aegean islands, such as the Cyclades. If the Axis don't deal with the Allies in Crete, they have to garrison and fortify all the places the Allies can attack from Crete.
So the resource suck happens regardless. It's a fixed consequence of the Axis not being able to take Crete on the bounce.
The point here is that Mussolini cares about Crete - Hitler doesn't, he's focussed on Russia. In OTL the Germans rather reluctantly sent the Afrika Corps over with a very limited mission in mind - ITTL they may well tell Mussolini to get knotted, and that sorting Crete out is an Italian problem.
The Italians care a lot more about Libya , which they are on the verge of losing ITTL. The Germans are a bit busy in Russia , the Axis just don't have anything to hit Crete with. Indeed with Allied strength increasing relative to OTL ( no Rommel means instead of being counter attacked and taking heavy losses they are happily building up for the next bite and hold ), its getting grimmer by the day.
Given what the allies have on Crete, the force needed to invade would be a massive stretch even if the RN and RAF decide to go on holiday. Plus that minor thing of not having any proper landing craft means without paratroopers grabbing a port, even getting to land would be fun, heck I reckon any attempt would make Sealion seem sane.
Given what the allies have on Crete, the force needed to invade would be a massive stretch even if the RN and RAF decide to go on holiday. Plus that minor thing of not having any proper landing craft means without paratroopers grabbing a port, even getting to land would be fun, heck I reckon any attempt would make Sealion seem sane.
Given my understanding of Cretan geography, the north coast towns can almost be treated as if they are islands. The Commonwealth just has to hold the ports and airfields and they will eventually win.
The Italians landing a division even unimpeded 15km from a town does almost nothing for the mission as long as each Commonwealth brigade can withstand a siege and force the Italians to supply themselves over the beach or through miniscule fishing ports
Story 0666
July 3, 1941 2200 Helsinki, Finland
Another round of water and light snacks were brought into the room. Four men had been at the table for three hours since their last break. The two Soviet diplomats had arrived at noontime with Moscow’s response to the ultimatum.
No, but…..
That was the essence of the seventeen minute opening statement. The Red Army was being pushed back and encircled in multiple places from the Baltic to the Black Sea. They needed troops. An army was anchored to Murmansk and two armies were tied to the Finnish border. Another 25,000 men were in Hanko. An agreement could be reached.
So the men sat and continued to talk. And they talked throughout the day. The sticking point was the security of Leningrad and the Germans in Northern Finland. Hanko was readily abandoned. Those men with their equipment could start to return to Leningrad within days.
Outside of the negotiating room, the trucks of the Finnish Army continued to move forward. A tired driver pulling a captured Soviet 152 mm gun yawned at the wrong time. His truck skidded to the side and knocked over a street lamp. The loud sound made all four diplomats look out the window. They saw the steady stream of troops moving to Viipuri..
They broke for fifteen minutes before the haggling resumed. By midnight a deal had been arranged. Nothing was to be resolved in the North. If the Germans could take Murmansk, that was the Soviet problem. If the Soviets occupied Petsamo, that was a Finnish problem. The boundaries on the Karelian Isthmus would be readjusted. The border would be no closer than 45 kilometers from the edge of Leningrad’s city borders. Most of the new border would follow the Mannerheim line. It would give the Finns more defensive depth without threatening Leningrad. No more than 5,000 armed Finns would be allowed in the region between the current border outside of Viipuri and the new line. Inspections would be allowed on 12 hours notice to inspect bases on both sides of the new border. The western shore of Lake Lagoda would be jointly administered for five years.
Within hours, a new treaty had been drafted and sent to the political leadership of both countries. Even sooner, the 23rd Army was notified to make plans to shift forces south to Leningrad’s inner defenses against the Germans.
Another round of water and light snacks were brought into the room. Four men had been at the table for three hours since their last break. The two Soviet diplomats had arrived at noontime with Moscow’s response to the ultimatum.
No, but…..
That was the essence of the seventeen minute opening statement. The Red Army was being pushed back and encircled in multiple places from the Baltic to the Black Sea. They needed troops. An army was anchored to Murmansk and two armies were tied to the Finnish border. Another 25,000 men were in Hanko. An agreement could be reached.
So the men sat and continued to talk. And they talked throughout the day. The sticking point was the security of Leningrad and the Germans in Northern Finland. Hanko was readily abandoned. Those men with their equipment could start to return to Leningrad within days.
Outside of the negotiating room, the trucks of the Finnish Army continued to move forward. A tired driver pulling a captured Soviet 152 mm gun yawned at the wrong time. His truck skidded to the side and knocked over a street lamp. The loud sound made all four diplomats look out the window. They saw the steady stream of troops moving to Viipuri..
They broke for fifteen minutes before the haggling resumed. By midnight a deal had been arranged. Nothing was to be resolved in the North. If the Germans could take Murmansk, that was the Soviet problem. If the Soviets occupied Petsamo, that was a Finnish problem. The boundaries on the Karelian Isthmus would be readjusted. The border would be no closer than 45 kilometers from the edge of Leningrad’s city borders. Most of the new border would follow the Mannerheim line. It would give the Finns more defensive depth without threatening Leningrad. No more than 5,000 armed Finns would be allowed in the region between the current border outside of Viipuri and the new line. Inspections would be allowed on 12 hours notice to inspect bases on both sides of the new border. The western shore of Lake Lagoda would be jointly administered for five years.
Within hours, a new treaty had been drafted and sent to the political leadership of both countries. Even sooner, the 23rd Army was notified to make plans to shift forces south to Leningrad’s inner defenses against the Germans.
Story 0667
July 4, 1941 Cavite Naval Base
“As a token of our eternal friendship and our shared desire for peace and prosperity, I am proud to transfer this fine ship to you, Sir” Lt. David Jackson then stepped forward and snapped a salute to his counterpart, Philippine Army Offshore Patrol Lt. Henry Jurado. They would be working together to bring the new PNS Davao to full efficiency. She was a new ship, a 310 ton steel hulled submarine chaser. She was armed with single 3 inch gun forward, and three sets of twin .50 caliber machine guns. On her stern were a pair of depth charge racks that could be rapidly replaced with mine racks. She was not fast but she was nimble and shallow drafted enough to work in congested littoral waters.
Over the next six months, Lt. Jackson and fifteen enlisted Americans would train the Filipino crew on how to sail, fight and most importantly maintain a small modern warship. At the end of the six month adjustment period, the sixteen Americans should be superfluous to the ship’s fighting ability.
Similar ceremonies were occurring all along the waterfront. Twelve patrol craft and sixteen torpedo boats were being transferred to the Philippines’ Army Offshore Patrol as President Roosevelt determined that these transfers increased the security of the United States.
“As a token of our eternal friendship and our shared desire for peace and prosperity, I am proud to transfer this fine ship to you, Sir” Lt. David Jackson then stepped forward and snapped a salute to his counterpart, Philippine Army Offshore Patrol Lt. Henry Jurado. They would be working together to bring the new PNS Davao to full efficiency. She was a new ship, a 310 ton steel hulled submarine chaser. She was armed with single 3 inch gun forward, and three sets of twin .50 caliber machine guns. On her stern were a pair of depth charge racks that could be rapidly replaced with mine racks. She was not fast but she was nimble and shallow drafted enough to work in congested littoral waters.
Over the next six months, Lt. Jackson and fifteen enlisted Americans would train the Filipino crew on how to sail, fight and most importantly maintain a small modern warship. At the end of the six month adjustment period, the sixteen Americans should be superfluous to the ship’s fighting ability.
Similar ceremonies were occurring all along the waterfront. Twelve patrol craft and sixteen torpedo boats were being transferred to the Philippines’ Army Offshore Patrol as President Roosevelt determined that these transfers increased the security of the United States.
Story 0668
July 5, 1941 0545 Estonia
Seventy one trucks suddenly started. The Soviet artillery was reaching out to the spear point, searching but not finding. The trucks were from five different countries and eight different manufacturers. The quartermasters were already finding it a challenge to keep all of them running but they had succeeded with only two trucks stripped to the frame; one had been destroyed by a Tupelov bomber and the other threw a piston and was sacrificed so that the others could run. These trucks unloaded shells, they unloaded fuel, they unloaded hot food, they unloaded new batteries and they unloaded the thousand other things that a Panzer battalion needed before they engaged in a deliberate attack against prepared positions with dug in infantry.
Even more importantly than the supplies that the trucks dropped off were the two infantry companies who had ridden along instead of marched throughout the night. Well rested men who had some time to familiarize themselves with both the Panzers and the ground over which they were to fight ate their breakfast. By the time that the last man had belched, the hurricane bombardment had started. They were attacking again.
Huh, so the Soviets will have more freedom to free up the forces to the north for redeployment
Yep; The Soviets knew that they got a pretty good bloody nose from the Finns. They are doing slightly worse TTL than OTL from the first three weeks of Barbarossa. They know that the Finns are ready for Round 2. Getting a couple of extra divisions for land that they would have lost anyways in a general Finnish offensive and still having a relatively secure northern flank to Leningrad is quite valuable. They would prefer to not have to fight around Murmansk but... their strategic situation sucks and the objective correlation of forces are against them being able to get their way. They actually have to win up north.
And from the Finnish perspective, they got back the vast majority of the valuable land that they lost in March 1940 without having to fight for it.
As a long time logistic person, I feel for the German quartermasters. As I understand the original timeline, the German's captured Lend-Lease trucks made in America which added more complexity to their job. As I understand it, European trucks were made with the metric measuring system and American trucks were made with the English measuring system. This variety of trucks will take its toll.
I am enjoying this timeline.
I am enjoying this timeline.
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