Israel defeated

arctic warrior

I don't see a Palestinian state being erected by the victorious Arab nations.
Jordan would probably like to have Cis-Jordan (Palestine) as part of their territory as they had already gotten Aqaba originally part of the Madate of Palestine (at least according to my 1939 atlas)
But more probably the Egyptians, Syrians and Jordanians would squabble over it perhaps leading to another war.

Question really is would the UN accept an Arab victory oblitering the state of Israel?
Would any of the former allies go ahead making it a safe place for jews - i.e. kick out the Arabs?
 

MarkWhittington

A couple of things happen. A massacre of the six hundred thousand plus Jews who resided in Palestine at the time. A war between various Arab states over the spoils, with Jordan likely winning.
 

htgriffin

I suspect there would be a lot more democratic revolts in the Arab World. Not because of the IDF undercutting everything as many claim but because there simply would not be a boegyman for the various dictators to blame everything on. A lot more suppourt for the U.S. in the long term too, and perhaps the unification ideas could fly (one Syrian-American I know says the post Sykes-Picot borders are about as valid to most Arabs as the Intra-German one).

One big toss-up is the Sephardim and Mizraim of MENA. Do they intergrate further in the Arab world and back the secularist movements (i.e. Ba'ath) in the way the Christian Arabs do? Or do they filter out to the West?

HTG
 

Masri

Rather than falling back on saber rattling to boost their popularity (i'm looking at you Nasser) rulers might actually have to work to improve their peoples lives. The old joke is "How many Arabs does it take to screw in a lightbulb? None they would rather sit in the dark and blame it on the jews." My guess is that at least some Arab states may have better GDP and per capita incomes.
 

Corbell Mark IV

Masri said:
Rather than falling back on saber rattling to boost their popularity (i'm looking at you Nasser) rulers might actually have to work to improve their peoples lives. The old joke is "How many Arabs does it take to screw in a lightbulb? None they would rather sit in the dark and blame it on the jews." My guess is that at least some Arab states may have better GDP and per capita incomes.
Click to expand...

A somewhat optimistic way of looking at it.

Two points.

ONe, could just blame someone else. Britian, the US, the West.

Two, improve how? Central planning/industrialization, similar to OTL only more so? The spent on here would likely be somewhat more productive than the OTL spending on the military, but we're not talking New Tigers.

Still, some limited successes could occurr and survive/spread.

Lebanon comes to mind.
 

August Akuma

Hashasheen said:
Yes, because we're that evil. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

600,000? I...need....sources!:D

Masri said:
Rather than falling back on saber rattling to boost their popularity (i'm looking at you Nasser) rulers might actually have to work to improve their peoples lives. The old joke is "How many Arabs does it take to screw in a lightbulb? None they would rather sit in the dark and blame it on the jews." My guess is that at least some Arab states may have better GDP and per capita incomes.
Click to expand...

I'm sitting in the dark laughing my ass off right now.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
I am SO disappointed.

I open this thread expecting to find people frothing at the mouth and I find...

Reasonable discussion taking place!:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

You people are RUINING this board!:mad:

:p:D:p:D:p
 

Hashasheen

Banned
CalBear said:
Yes I have, and I've been meaning to talk to you about that!

How DARE you be a reasonable Arab (and I suppose Muslim too) with national pride and reasoned discussions!

@#@%^


:D:D:D
Click to expand...
I think we can all agree to blame thande for this. Clearly his chemical weapons of mass politiness have infected the Middle East's internet to a degree where We are now polite, logic thinking, chocolate lovers.

*bites down on mars bar*

MUST HAVE MOAR CHOCOALTE!
 

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan

I am not sure the victorious Arab armies would massacre the Jewish population. Besides the massive moral problems with commiting such an act, there was not so much hatred of Jews that would cause a slaughter, and no real reason to. Plus, a second genocide could get both sides of the Cold War against the Arab nations. The Cold War dynamic would be different because without the USA suporting Isreal, the USA won't be hated as much. It could still result in both the USA and USSR proping up their own strongmen in the nations that they can, with more attempted liberal revolutions. I am not sure about the, I am forgetting the name, Union of Arab Republics? I always thought that it was driven by an anti-Isreali feeling, so without this feeling, there may be no union.
 

Tyr

Zimmerwald1915 said:
Israel enslaving the world? I'm hearing the echoes of a "Jews are secretly in control of every powerful institution" conspiracy in your posts, buddy. I'm not exactly pleased.

Just doin' my part
Click to expand...

Meh. The Jews have been running Britain for 200 years and I must congratulate them on doing a damn good job. :D
 

Peter

The Jewish Arabs for one thing have remained Arabs, just as Christian Arabs had. They would probable have been productive citizens in a more productive and less militarized region. The region would see more overseas investment and better use of oil money. Palestine and Lebanon would likely be economic hubs. Less refugees, less Palestinian children burned to death or shot point-blank, less antisemitism, more prosperity. No war in Iraq.
 

83gemini

In OTL there were various massacres on both sides (the nature of which are debated). If Israel doesn't pull through in '48 I sincerely doubt there'd be an organized genocide as such (a lot of dead sure; I suspect eliminationalist anti-Semitism filtered through into elements of Arab nationalism). But more likely there'd just be more DPs in Cyprus or something. I suspect the UN wrings its hands some and most (including DPs in Europe) end up in North America, though it might take some journalism to push (AFAIK post-war enthusiasm for actually taking in DPs ranged from limited to nil). IOW there would be essentially the same number of refugees as post-1948 iOTL, except their descendants don't languish in refugee camps, but instead emigrate from camps to NYC etc by the early 50s.

Given the relatively deep-rooted problems in the post-colonial Arab world, the inherent bad incentives surrounding oil wealth, the fact Cold War tensions were there already, I'd say the Middle East isn't much better off. Arab nationalism and other assorted tensions make Lebanon unstable anyways, and more importantly however Palestine is dealt with, someone will be unhappy about it.

Whether Jews in the Arab world would be as unhappy as Copts is perhaps interesting; Baghdad has a pogrom in the early 40s for instance, and Jews elsewhere were hardly well off, but anti-Semitism there was qualitatively different. In any case Arab nationalism wasn't going to go away, which puts corporatist identities in an unpleasant place.

Finally this does rather interesting things to Judaism and Jewish identity (perhaps even more interesting then its impact on political Islam?), but what exactly I'm not sure. Saying the destruction of Israel in '48 harms long-term Jewish viability seems difficult to support given that Judaism (of one sort or another) had survived comparable catastrophe, but suffice it to say the theological implications (not to mention demographic implications) are not all that pretty.
 

Grimm Reaper

The Arabs didn't agree to the first cease fire because they felt it would be sporting to allow the Jews time to get more and better arms, an event which inevitably favored the Jews as they were virtually without armor, aircraft, etc. while the Arabs had at least some.

Lack of success and severe division among themselves were the major factors in agreeing to the cease fire.

As an example, Egypt deliberately held supplies of ammunition and equipment to Jordan from the UK, which explains why Jordan henceforth never felt any desperate need to help Egypt later in the war.


It is difficult to imagine the Arab Legion doing more. As it is, this army which was smaller than Syria's, Egypt's, Iraq's or the Palestinians(!) scored the only major victories over the Jews and held the only major territory assigned to the Arabs under the UN plan. What more do you expect a limited force to do, especially when the government is frantic to avoid heavy casualties in that force?


Absolute certainty: There is no Palestinian state. A Palestinian state under the leadership of the Mufti of Jerusalem was not compatable with Jordan's survival of Jordan so one would not survive and all standards of competence lean towards Jordan. Not to mention Jews surviving get to offer their loyalty to either the relatively friendly King Abdullah or a Nazi war criminal.

If this leads to a united Palestine(now called Jordan) including OTL Jordan and Israel plus the West Bank and Gaza the results could be... interesting, especially if the Jews are seen as more loyal than the Palestinians.

The question is whether nations like Egypt or Syria respond well to a more prominent Jordan or whether the pro-Western monarchy with a possibly prominent Jewish minority replaces Israel as the bugbear of the region to some degree.


Second absolute certainty: The slaughter of Palestinians, even on a much larger scale, no longer attracts the attention of the world. Massacres in the Third World of one Third World group by another never do.:(
 

Orville_third

Banned
I recently heard that the USSR backed Israel in the 1948 war- at least it spoke in the UN against the attempts to crush the "National Liberation Movement" of Israel.
And, also ironically, the US may have had an embargo of sorts on Israel.
 

CalBear

Moderator
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Orville_third said:
I recently heard that the USSR backed Israel in the 1948 war- at least it spoke in the UN against the attempts to crush the "National Liberation Movement" of Israel.
And, also ironically, the US may have had an embargo of sorts on Israel.
Click to expand...


The U.S. was embargoing weapons to all sides. That was back when the U.S. was actually hoping that the UN would work.
 
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