Pupatello Has Her Government Deal - But Stormclouds Loom
With the announcement yesterday of that the Liberals will form a third consecutive government - the first party to do so since the Tory heyday of the Big Blue Machine - one would think that Grits in Queen's Park are excited, but they are quite clearly anything but. This sitting of the Ontario Legislative Assembly will see not just a minority government but the weakest possibly in Ontario history, as Liberals enter with 60 seats and are dependent on a coalition with Mike Schreiner's Greens and confidence from Wayne Gates' Cooperative Commonwealth Federation to reach a majority. It isn't much better for the opposition, of course; Christine Elliot's Tories fell well below expectations even on 55 seats and now face an emboldened, and increasingly right-wing, Canadian Action Party nipping at their heels.
The issue that Pupatello will face, however, is not one purely of numbers - Gates may be an aggressive, strident populist compared to his co-partisan in Prime Minister Peter Julian but he's not going to do anything to cause the Tories to take the reigns at Queen's Park - but also of experience and what it says of the current moment in Ontarian and generally Canadian politics. Pupatello has been Liberal leader since 2012, the second-longest serving person in that position with the exception of her immediate predecessor Gerard Kennedy, who held the title for 16 years himself. In nearly thirty years, the party has had only two leaders, stifling innovation within the party ranks and it looks to be an issue that could only get worse, what with many experienced Liberal Cabinet members having left office via retirement or defeat, including Finance Minister Kevin Flynn, Energy Minister Chris Bentley, Housing Minister Chris Edwards and Natural Resources Minister Bill Mauro. Who, exactly, is "Lady Sandy" grooming to be her successor, if anyone? Having just watched the Liberals shed thirty seats to have a minority government dependent on Greens and Coffers, is she even Premier by the time of the next election? History would suggest "no," but Pupatello ran in 2012 as a repudiation of the Kennedy years despite their good relations during his two majorities and it is well known that she sees the modern Liberal Party as having successfully become the party of choice for centrists, whom she believes to be the dominant force in Ontario politics.
If that is the case, then 2023 marks the great rejection of Pupatello's views on politics. Capable but cold managerial technocracy with a blend of countercyclical spending and tax remediation does not seem to have inspired the Ontarian voters who just gave the Greens 8 seats in Queen's Park and the Cappers 13. The former can be chalked up in part to Gates being a remarkably poor fit for inner-city, wealthy progressive voters who were looking for an alternative to Pupatello and found in Schreiner a Green who doesn't terrify them; indeed, Schreiner's straightforward campaign on exiting the federal cap-and-trade program to impose a simple carbon tax in Ontario and pour subsidies into solar and wind installation sounds less like the utopian West Coast environmentalism to which Canadians are used to and rather seems like lifting a technocratic and soft-liberal page straight from the Brian Sandoval administration south of the border, hardly anybody's idea of a traditional "green" government.
But the latter suggests something darker at play. Under leader Derek Sloan and federal leader Randy Hillier, CAP has shifted from its grab-bag of anti-Americanism and opposition to trade deals to simply being a repository for everybody's angriest, rejectionist policy views. CAP augurs an Ontario where anger over declining industries in eastern, northern and southwestern Ontario are augmented by rage over immigrants from both North America and overseas snapping up property and university slots, and also where Pupatello's well-meaning gay-rights initiative OHRO are soundly rejected by a large swath of the population and engenders backlash nearly four years later. The success of CAP in traditional rural Tory ridings (and more than a few old CCF strongholds) portends a shift to the right by the Tories much like in the 1990s to meet the challenges posed by Reform and the public anger over Quebecois independence, and whether the dull, moderate "Blue Sandy" in Christine Elliott can meet that moment remains to be seen; 2023 suggests that it won't.
And so Pupatello has some strange years ahead. Out of a caucus of 60, only 41 MLAs have experience in the previous Legislature, less than half of her previous majority thus returned, and only 12 of them have served since before 2011, including Pupatello herself. Two Cabinet ministries, including Energy beyond the obvious Environmental portfolio, will go to Greens, in government for the first time in any Canadian province. In the policy document released yesterday on the 28th to announce the coalition government, the first item on Pupatello's list was agreeing to the imposition of a carbon tax to replace carbon trading, a platform that will surely meet with some backlash amongst Ontarian drivers despite record electric vehicle sales this year. As this strange Red-Green coalition advances, however, they will be looking over their shoulders at an emboldened far-right, a frustrated center-right, and a center-left that as it is forced to move on from Gates' failure to advance the CCF to government for the first time in Ontario starts to wonder what this may portend for the federal government's prospects next year...