Into the Cincoverse - The Cinco de Mayo EU Thread and Wikibox Repository

This got me to thinking - what was the impetus for development of nuclear power on Earth-Cinco? While an existential WWII-level war hasn't been conclusively ruled out, there have been enough hints to suggest that the GAW and CEW are as bad as it gets, so it doesn't feel like there's a geopolitical crisis bad enough to prompt the development of nuclear weapons (and by extension nuclear energy). Are there even nuclear weapons in the Cincoverse?

(And now I'm thinking about just how blursed a nuclear-armed irredentist Confederacy would be...)
civilian nuclear energy is considerably simpler than building even a Hiroshima bomb, so I don't think it's unreasonable that one could develop without the other. (That's not a comment in either direction about whether or not any kind of atomic weaponry is or is not developed)
 
2012 Canadian federal election
The 2012 Canadian federal election was held on November 21, 2012 to elect the Parliament of Canada. The incumbent Co-operative Commonwealth Federation government, led by Paul Dewar as a majority, was defeated and a minority government under the center-right Conservative Party led by John Baird was formed on December 9th with confidence and supply from the right-wing populist Reform Party.

The CCF had, in 2008, won a majority government led by Jack Layton, Prime Minister since 2004 and having added seats in every election since becoming leader two years previously. Despite not being one of the traditional parties of government in Canada, the CCF formed the first single-party majority government in Canada since 1964 thanks to the strongest economy in decades and booming growth in North America, along with Layton's deep personal popularity, and set about - without needing confidence from the centrist Liberals - to fully implement an ambitious social democratic agenda. The CCF was, by summer of 2011, beset by a slowing economy as the global economy (in particular in North America) slumped into recession and then shocked by the sudden death of Layton from inoperable cancer. The outpouring of grief across Canada bolstered the CCF's political standing temporarily, until the election of Foreign Minister Paul Dewar as Layton's permanent replacement in an extraordinary leadership review in December 2011, narrowly defeating Layton acolyte Brian Topp by a narrow margin and presiding over a mourning party as the recession worsened into the first half of 2012. With elections due no later than December 1, Dewar elected to drag out the election as close as possible to the final eligible date, in order to give the economy as much time to recover as possible and to have "closer to a year" as Prime Minister to enjoy some incumbency advantages.

The Tories, meanwhile, had tapped "the reluctant man" John Baird, a chief ally and protege of former Prime Minister Mike Harris as their leader in early 2010 after Harris himself interceded to persuade Baird to run for the job, and at the time of Layton's death the Tories enjoyed their first consistent polling leads in over five years, which they would regain by the spring of 2012 after Dewar's brief bump faded. The centrist Liberals, for their part - having been reduced to a historically poor 8 seats in 2008 - went with Ken Dryden, a former hockey goalie and star candidate from a traditionally Liberal Toronto-area seat, setting up the first election with three Ontarians at the head of the ticket since 1993. Reform, meanwhile, nominated Saskatchewan's David Anderson, a social conservative but economic moderate, as their standard-bearer who focused on rebuilding the caucus in targeted areas.

While the economy improved slowly in the second half of 2012, unemployment remained stubbornly high and wage growth persistently low, blamed by Baird and the Tories on the ambitious "Common Program for Canada" passed by the Layton government after 2008 that had raised taxes and created new, consolidated benefit programs (while also gradually reducing Canada's chronically high deficit and public debt levels). Dewar, while well liked by Canadians, struggled to match Layton's famous energy, while Dryden produced little meaningful opposition. The CCF fell narrowly behind the Tories in polls shortly before the writ was dropped in early October and never regained it, though it would outperform expectations and held on to 84 seats when it had been expected to perhaps fall as low as 70. With a sunny, moderate and disciplined campaign, Baird's Tories won the most seats at 88, and thanks to Reform's small surge in the West (mostly at Tory expense) had just barely enough to form government. Unlike the period 1993-04, in which the Tories and Reform formed formal coalitions with one another and both parties blamed the other for the failure of said coalitions, Baird elected to govern alone after securing a six-point confidence agreement with Reform leader Anderson that had been tentatively worked out by the two leaders before the election via backchannels. Baird would subsequently form a government on December 9, 2012, until his surprise resignation in late 2015 after only three years on the job.

The election was noteworthy as well, however, for the entry into Parliament of the Canadian Action Party, an anti-globalization, populist party that had failed to win any seats in the 2000s but gained a record 7 ridings in 2012, presaging the budding growth of populist politics throughout the rest of the decade.

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Toronto Sun - September 29, 2023
Pupatello Has Her Government Deal - But Stormclouds Loom

With the announcement yesterday of that the Liberals will form a third consecutive government - the first party to do so since the Tory heyday of the Big Blue Machine - one would think that Grits in Queen's Park are excited, but they are quite clearly anything but. This sitting of the Ontario Legislative Assembly will see not just a minority government but the weakest possibly in Ontario history, as Liberals enter with 60 seats and are dependent on a coalition with Mike Schreiner's Greens and confidence from Wayne Gates' Cooperative Commonwealth Federation to reach a majority. It isn't much better for the opposition, of course; Christine Elliot's Tories fell well below expectations even on 55 seats and now face an emboldened, and increasingly right-wing, Canadian Action Party nipping at their heels.

The issue that Pupatello will face, however, is not one purely of numbers - Gates may be an aggressive, strident populist compared to his co-partisan in Prime Minister Peter Julian but he's not going to do anything to cause the Tories to take the reigns at Queen's Park - but also of experience and what it says of the current moment in Ontarian and generally Canadian politics. Pupatello has been Liberal leader since 2012, the second-longest serving person in that position with the exception of her immediate predecessor Gerard Kennedy, who held the title for 16 years himself. In nearly thirty years, the party has had only two leaders, stifling innovation within the party ranks and it looks to be an issue that could only get worse, what with many experienced Liberal Cabinet members having left office via retirement or defeat, including Finance Minister Kevin Flynn, Energy Minister Chris Bentley, Housing Minister Chris Edwards and Natural Resources Minister Bill Mauro. Who, exactly, is "Lady Sandy" grooming to be her successor, if anyone? Having just watched the Liberals shed thirty seats to have a minority government dependent on Greens and Coffers, is she even Premier by the time of the next election? History would suggest "no," but Pupatello ran in 2012 as a repudiation of the Kennedy years despite their good relations during his two majorities and it is well known that she sees the modern Liberal Party as having successfully become the party of choice for centrists, whom she believes to be the dominant force in Ontario politics.

If that is the case, then 2023 marks the great rejection of Pupatello's views on politics. Capable but cold managerial technocracy with a blend of countercyclical spending and tax remediation does not seem to have inspired the Ontarian voters who just gave the Greens 8 seats in Queen's Park and the Cappers 13. The former can be chalked up in part to Gates being a remarkably poor fit for inner-city, wealthy progressive voters who were looking for an alternative to Pupatello and found in Schreiner a Green who doesn't terrify them; indeed, Schreiner's straightforward campaign on exiting the federal cap-and-trade program to impose a simple carbon tax in Ontario and pour subsidies into solar and wind installation sounds less like the utopian West Coast environmentalism to which Canadians are used to and rather seems like lifting a technocratic and soft-liberal page straight from the Brian Sandoval administration south of the border, hardly anybody's idea of a traditional "green" government.

But the latter suggests something darker at play. Under leader Derek Sloan and federal leader Randy Hillier, CAP has shifted from its grab-bag of anti-Americanism and opposition to trade deals to simply being a repository for everybody's angriest, rejectionist policy views. CAP augurs an Ontario where anger over declining industries in eastern, northern and southwestern Ontario are augmented by rage over immigrants from both North America and overseas snapping up property and university slots, and also where Pupatello's well-meaning gay-rights initiative OHRO are soundly rejected by a large swath of the population and engenders backlash nearly four years later. The success of CAP in traditional rural Tory ridings (and more than a few old CCF strongholds) portends a shift to the right by the Tories much like in the 1990s to meet the challenges posed by Reform and the public anger over Quebecois independence, and whether the dull, moderate "Blue Sandy" in Christine Elliott can meet that moment remains to be seen; 2023 suggests that it won't.

And so Pupatello has some strange years ahead. Out of a caucus of 60, only 41 MLAs have experience in the previous Legislature, less than half of her previous majority thus returned, and only 12 of them have served since before 2011, including Pupatello herself. Two Cabinet ministries, including Energy beyond the obvious Environmental portfolio, will go to Greens, in government for the first time in any Canadian province. In the policy document released yesterday on the 28th to announce the coalition government, the first item on Pupatello's list was agreeing to the imposition of a carbon tax to replace carbon trading, a platform that will surely meet with some backlash amongst Ontarian drivers despite record electric vehicle sales this year. As this strange Red-Green coalition advances, however, they will be looking over their shoulders at an emboldened far-right, a frustrated center-right, and a center-left that as it is forced to move on from Gates' failure to advance the CCF to government for the first time in Ontario starts to wonder what this may portend for the federal government's prospects next year...
 
a technocratic and soft-liberal page straight from the Brian Sandoval administration south of the border,
Sandoval, now that's something.
rage over immigrants from both North America
Oh ho! Is the CSA such a shitshow that people emigrate from their in great numbers, or is it somewhere else?
I am a little surprised that a certain Alberta-born politician with Cuban heritage is not the head of the Canadian Action Party. 🤔
No. Please dear God, just no.
 
Oh Canada, never stop being a complete fiasco lol.

Also, Brian Sandoval? Interesting choice!
Petition to change Canada’s national anthem from “O Canada” to the Benny Hill theme

I promised a non-Black ethnic minority President and by God I’d deliver!

(Also fits the TL to have the first nonwhite President be of Mexican descent, which is how I landed on him eventually even back when my plan was a hard cutoff in 2012)
I am a little surprised that a certain Alberta-born politician with Cuban heritage is not the head of the Canadian Action Party. 🤔
While I have kept a lot (if not most) of OTL’s births as-is, my rule is that if it’s unlikely in the context of this TL for somebody to have been born I axe them. Cruz, with a Cuban-born father and Delaware-born mother meeting in Texas in the early 1970s, seems thus quite unlikely to have been born. Same goes for somebody like Charles Percy, with a Northern father and Southern mother, born in Biloxi.

(The reasons why Barack Obama wouldn’t exist ITTL should thus be obvious, too)
Sandoval, now that's something.

Oh ho! Is the CSA such a shitshow that people emigrate from their in great numbers, or is it somewhere else?

No. Please dear God, just no.
Both - CSA has both in and out-Migration, but people from the US, Mexico, elsewhere move to Canada under NAFTA as people move throughout Europe under OTL Schengen.
 
While I have kept a lot (if not most) of OTL’s births as-is, my rule is that if it’s unlikely in the context of this TL for somebody to have been born I axe them. Cruz, with a Cuban-born father and Delaware-born mother meeting in Texas in the early 1970s, seems thus quite unlikely to have been born. Same goes for somebody like Charles Percy, with a Northern father and Southern mother, born in Biloxi.
Also, Randy Hillier's batfuckery puts Cancun Ted to shame.
 
Petition to change Canada’s national anthem from “O Canada” to the Benny Hill theme

I promised a non-Black ethnic minority President and by God I’d deliver!

(Also fits the TL to have the first nonwhite President be of Mexican descent, which is how I landed on him eventually even back when my plan was a hard cutoff in 2012)

While I have kept a lot (if not most) of OTL’s births as-is, my rule is that if it’s unlikely in the context of this TL for somebody to have been born I axe them. Cruz, with a Cuban-born father and Delaware-born mother meeting in Texas in the early 1970s, seems thus quite unlikely to have been born. Same goes for somebody like Charles Percy, with a Northern father and Southern mother, born in Biloxi.

(The reasons why Barack Obama wouldn’t exist ITTL should thus be obvious, too)

Both - CSA has both in and out-Migration, but people from the US, Mexico, elsewhere move to Canada under NAFTA as people move throughout Europe under OTL Schengen.
OTOH, you have a choice with Fidel Castro: Politician from the Cuba Independence Party or Baseball player playing in the MLB...
 
Also, Randy Hillier's batfuckery puts Cancun Ted to shame.
That, too.

A lot of Americans I don’t think realize how bugnuts Canadian politics can get (just today I was reminded of Gordon Campbell getting a DUI in Maui and it somehow not immediately ending his Premiership)
OTOH, you have a choice with Fidel Castro: Politician from the Cuba Independence Party or Baseball player playing in the MLB...
That I do!
 
That, too.

A lot of Americans I don’t think realize how bugnuts Canadian politics can get (just today I was reminded of Gordon Campbell getting a DUI in Maui and it somehow not immediately ending his Premiership)

That I do!
Actually, you want *true* ungentlemanly *and* maximum chaos...

Vardeman one day (near the end) just completely disappears. Somewhere between Australian PM Harold Holt and US Constitutional Convention delegate John Lansing. Rumors range from fled to Brazil to being sealed up in a cellar by a Negro slave. Located in 1965 living in British Columbia and his transfer to USA Custody, Trial and Execution over the next year lead to strained relations between the USA and CSA on the 50th anniversary of the war.
 
Actually, you want *true* ungentlemanly *and* maximum chaos...

Vardeman one day (near the end) just completely disappears. Somewhere between Australian PM Harold Holt and US Constitutional Convention delegate John Lansing. Rumors range from fled to Brazil to being sealed up in a cellar by a Negro slave. Located in 1965 living in British Columbia and his transfer to USA Custody, Trial and Execution over the next year lead to strained relations between the USA and CSA on the 50th anniversary of the war.
Oh my, Vardaman either pulling a Harold Holt or a "Nazi war criminal in Brazil" is the trope I didn't know I needed.
 

kham_coc

Banned
Both - CSA has both in and out-Migration, but people from the US, Mexico, elsewhere move to Canada under NAFTA as people move throughout Europe under OTL Schengen.
Not really important, but Schengen is a passport union, and while (almost) all parts of Schengen is part of the EEA and thus enjoy freedom of movement, the two are distinct.
Schengen lets you visit easily, but not stay, that's the EEA.
 
Not really important, but Schengen is a passport union, and while (almost) all parts of Schengen is part of the EEA and thus enjoy freedom of movement, the two are distinct.
Schengen lets you visit easily, but not stay, that's the EEA.
It’s a very important distinction, though, and it’s fair to bring up. TTL NAFTA is a passport union and something close to freedom of movement with a lot of bilateral agreements that make it a hodgepodge (this is North America after all lol would you have it any other way)
 
2023 MLB Playoff Preview
With the kickoff of the wild card games tonight, our quick rundown on the playoff field:

Yankees v. Rainiers - Heart or Head?

The Yankees were the best team in baseball ahead of the All-Star Break before slumping into a late-summer swoon that left them on 97 wins and the fourth seed in the American League, and their reward is the feisty Seattle Rainiers at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night. From a pure talent level, the Yankees are clearly the better team and could well have pipped the Orioles to an AL East title; but the Rainiers finally got the Seals monkey off their back and have nothing but upside to play for, and have excelled in these situations in the past two years in dispatching the White Sox and Indians in road wild card games. Will New York be the next victim?

Phillies v. Cubs - Talent Galore

The Cubs are exactly where they want to be, in the playoffs with a chance to sneak into the NLCS, if they can get past Philadelphia first. Both of these teams had similar seasons, the clear second-best outfit in their division but hanging in tight to make sure they qualified, and Chicago especially dazzled with not one but two sweeps of the Braves in September against a team regarded as the best in baseball at the end of the year. Damian Perreira has a good case for NL MVP and Philadelphia's bullpen oozes with talent; the Cubs batters against that pitching staff will be appointment viewing.

Dodgers - Glory Restored?

Brooklyn fans can rejoice in the Giants narrowly failing to beat the Cubs to the final Wild Card spot over the weekend thanks to defeats at Pittsburgh after five straight seasons of 100-win clubs. For the Dodgers, who won 100 games and the first seed in the National League playoffs, this will be a crucial test to see if they can restore some balance in the NL East and prove that they belong on baseball's biggest stage again after the sharp decline from the 2011-14 dynasty and several bad September and October chokes since then.

Orioles - A Complete Team?

Baltimore has dazzled all year and looked often like the best team in baseball - certainly best in the weaker AL, as their top seed would imply - but questions abound about the quality of the pitching and whether a banged-up club has enough juice for all of October. The O's, if nothing else, have a young group that has nothing but upside, but after nabbing 100 wins and their first division title in nine years, a trip to the Fall Classic is regarded as the only result that will not end in disappointment for this group.

Braves - Window Closing?

The narrative in Milwaukee all season, even after adding major free-agency signings, is that this may be the last window for the talented group that has kept the Braves in the playoffs for years and won the 2017 World Series. One wonders if that thought will start to go to their heads, especially after a rough second half of September dropped the Braves from pace to 106 wins to merely 100, and the Dodgers took tiebreakers for the top seed. On the other hand, they would avoid either of the hot Phillies or Cubs in the NLDS this way, and the Diamondbacks, quality or not, don't match up well with Milwaukee. But there is certainly hope of more than merely another NLCS exit at Pabst Park.

Zephyrs - A New Dynasty?

Colorado looks absolutely stacked between Matt Hutton, Rudy Rivera, and Leung Fan-chung and after dethroning mighty San Francisco for its first playoff appearance since 2018 and a second seed, the Z's should be favored against the Twins starting Thursday evening. While we still think Baltimore or New York are the teams to beat this fall, don't sleep on a Zephyrs run to the World Series eight years after their Cinderella story ended in heartbreak at the hands of Pittsburgh.
 
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