An add on to this/sort of answering myself. (caveat: obviously I know little beyond a generic sense of the ideological shift, and have done a little wiki surfing - a dangerous combo for a typist with spare time!)
I see the Napoleon Code was promulgated in 1804. From Wiki: "The Code, with its stress on clearly written and accessible law, was a major step in replacing the previous patchwork of
feudal laws. Historian Robert Holtman regards it as one of the few documents that have influenced the whole world.
[2]" Seems to me, Napoleon instituted a number of reforms from his days as First Consul, and much of the codes/ideologies/sense of nationalism really spread across the continent with his conquests. Naturally, Napoleon didn't do all this by himself, but his leadership/control of the country is what enabled things to proceed as they did. Simply removing Napoleon doesn't remove the ideology, but if France becomes chaotic, the ability to implement reforms becomes limited. And if France isn't sweeping across the continent in repeated wars, you're not going to have as much contact.
I would think that France losing the War of 2nd Coalition would impact change across the world.