How Silent Fall the Cherry Blossoms

[NHBL]

Existential threats...

One thing different about the biowar attack compared to any others--the pople are going to see it as an existential threat to the nation, and perhaps beyond. The public doesn't know if there's more and deadlier bugs in the pipeline. Gas is understandable to the average person, just like a gun or bayonette. You die, you live, or you're wounded/crippled. The attack is over.

But, plagues are not like that--they spread, and keep killing. So, I can see the average person IN THAT TIME seeing this as far worse than gas. (And decisions made need to be evaluated in the contest of the time they were being made.) Back then, lots of illnesses terrified the population...I remember Mom talking about polio epidemics.

The USA is counterattacking with mustard gas--does the American population know about that yet? It will come out, so perhaps it's best that it come out as quickly as possible--perhaps with a mention that the USA will not use weapons like that unless attacked with similar weapons. We know that Germany is going to launch something--but they don't.

That could both deter others, and show the American population that things are being done. (Perhaps even announce the codename...)

The presedent might even want to promise war crimes trials now, for propaganda purposes--but that might be counterproductive. ensuring that the Japanese refuse to surrender.

Likewise, the United States would be wise to be sending word through neutral parties--like Spain or Switzerland--that it won't use gas or bacteriological warfare unless attacked in a similar manner.

Longer term--as in postwar--knowing that useing such weapons will have the most terrible of consequences might just help deter use in the postwar era. When Japan falls, I expect that the consequences on everyone involved will be fatal. (Most liklely without giving them the option of suicide, if they get captured.)

The world must know that using such weapons is NOT an option. That will, IMVHO, be onme of the factors determining the decisions made regarding Operation Carthage.

On a grimmer note yet, Japan and the USSR aren't at war--what might Stalin offer Japan in exchange for info on the various bioweapons?

 

[Artatochor]

One thing different about the biowar attack compared to any others--the pople are going to see it as an existential threat to the nation, and perhaps beyond. The public doesn't know if there's more and deadlier bugs in the pipeline. Gas is understandable to the average person, just like a gun or bayonette. You die, you live, or you're wounded/crippled. The attack is over.

But, plagues are not like that--they spread, and keep killing. So, I can see the average person IN THAT TIME seeing this as far worse than gas. (And decisions made need to be evaluated in the contest of the time they were being made.) Back then, lots of illnesses terrified the population...I remember Mom talking about polio epidemics.

The USA is counterattacking with mustard gas--does the American population know about that yet? It will come out, so perhaps it's best that it come out as quickly as possible--perhaps with a mention that the USA will not use weapons like that unless attacked with similar weapons. We know that Germany is going to launch something--but they don't.

That could both deter others, and show the American population that things are being done. (Perhaps even announce the codename...)

The presedent might even want to promise war crimes trials now, for propaganda purposes--but that might be counterproductive. ensuring that the Japanese refuse to surrender.

Likewise, the United States would be wise to be sending word through neutral parties--like Spain or Switzerland--that it won't use gas or bacteriological warfare unless attacked in a similar manner.

Longer term--as in postwar--knowing that useing such weapons will have the most terrible of consequences might just help deter use in the postwar era. When Japan falls, I expect that the consequences on everyone involved will be fatal. (Most liklely without giving them the option of suicide, if they get captured.)

The world must know that using such weapons is NOT an option. That will, IMVHO, be onme of the factors determining the decisions made regarding Operation Carthage.

On a grimmer note yet, Japan and the USSR aren't at war--what might Stalin offer Japan in exchange for info on the various bioweapons?

You just opened up a very interesting topic. There hasn't been real Soviet responses to the news of the bioweapon attack. Perhaps Stalin will offer admittance into the Comintern, and thus, safety from American attack, if info on the bioweapons is provided. Perhaps some naval blueprints as well. In regards to the existence of Emperor not working together with Communism, I have the feeling Hirohito might not object to simply stepping down, if it will secure his nation's survival.

 

[Garrison]

You just opened up a very interesting topic. There hasn't been real Soviet responses to the news of the bioweapon attack. Perhaps Stalin will offer admittance into the Comintern, and thus, safety from American attack, if info on the bioweapons is provided. Perhaps some naval blueprints as well. In regards to the existence of Emperor not working together with Communism, I have the feeling Hirohito might not object to simply stepping down, if it will secure his nation's survival.

Not going to happen. Stalin's first priority is securing the Soviet sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and the Winter of '44 that is far from done. He will not antagonize the western allies by making bargains with Japan; especially for information he will reasonably conclude he can obtain when Japan has been crushed militarily. Bringing Japan in to Comintern would be tantamount to a declaration of war on the USA.

On the Japanese side the military are doing this in the insane belief that they can save the Empire of Japan and obtain acceptable terms. These are the same sorts who didn't want to surrender after two A-Bombs and a Soviet invasion; they are not about to accept Soviet 'protection'.

 

[NHBL]

Bargaining...

I wasn't thinking of Japanese entrance into comintern--THAT is suicide for the Soviets. (That might be enough to get the Germans to lay off their plans, and see if they can get a semi-acceptable peace in the west, allowing them to concentrate on the Soviets.)

Stalin is many things, but stupid enough to do something that starts a war with the USA--now--isn't one of them. But--selling Japan things it needs, and the USSR has enough of--in exchange for bioweapon info--THAT has potential. (Oil? Old planes suitable for a single flight? Some obsolete tanks that are still MUCH better than Japan's? Even rifles in quantity, for the home defense against the invasion?)

 

[Artatochor]

I wasn't thinking of Japanese entrance into comintern--THAT is suicide for the Soviets. (That might be enough to get the Germans to lay off their plans, and see if they can get a semi-acceptable peace in the west, allowing them to concentrate on the Soviets.)

Stalin is many things, but stupid enough to do something that starts a war with the USA--now--isn't one of them. But--selling Japan things it needs, and the USSR has enough of--in exchange for bioweapon info--THAT has potential. (Oil? Old planes suitable for a single flight? Some obsolete tanks that are still MUCH better than Japan's? Even rifles in quantity, for the home defense against the invasion?)

What if a mock attack was done, in agreement with Hirohito and any moderates? Hirohito immediately orders a surrender to the USSR.

 

[Garrison]

I wasn't thinking of Japanese entrance into comintern--THAT is suicide for the Soviets. (That might be enough to get the Germans to lay off their plans, and see if they can get a semi-acceptable peace in the west, allowing them to concentrate on the Soviets.)

Stalin is many things, but stupid enough to do something that starts a war with the USA--now--isn't one of them. But--selling Japan things it needs, and the USSR has enough of--in exchange for bioweapon info--THAT has potential. (Oil? Old planes suitable for a single flight? Some obsolete tanks that are still MUCH better than Japan's? Even rifles in quantity, for the home defense against the invasion?)

And how will they be shipped to Japan past the very effective blockade of US submarines? And again doing so is an act of war against the US, to gain info he can collect easily via espionage. As you say Stalin isn't stupid so this is a non-starter.

 

[Garrison]

What if a mock attack was done, in agreement with Hirohito and any moderates? Hirohito immediately orders a surrender to the USSR.

The army is not going to surrender to anyone at this point; there were elements that tried to mount a coup to stop the surrender OTL. They still think they can win or at least achieve acceptable terms. The USA will also insist that any surrender be to the allies as a whole and that they should occupy Japan; and in the Pacific in 1944 they have the means to enforce that insistence.

Japan has nothing to offer that would persuade Stalin to jeopardize his plans for post war Europe, and I suspect he's going to have chemical weapon problems closer to home to worry about...

 

[stevep]

I wasn't thinking of Japanese entrance into comintern--THAT is suicide for the Soviets. (That might be enough to get the Germans to lay off their plans, and see if they can get a semi-acceptable peace in the west, allowing them to concentrate on the Soviets.)

Stalin is many things, but stupid enough to do something that starts a war with the USA--now--isn't one of them. But--selling Japan things it needs, and the USSR has enough of--in exchange for bioweapon info--THAT has potential. (Oil? Old planes suitable for a single flight? Some obsolete tanks that are still MUCH better than Japan's? Even rifles in quantity, for the home defense against the invasion?)

NHBL

I don't think so. Especially with American feeling so enraged at the moment anything that gives weapons, or even any material that helps they continue the war is likely to go down extremely badly in the US. Not to the point of a dow unless Stalin does something very stupid but you would see a drastic cooling of relations. Probably an immediate cut in Lend-Lease to the Soviets, which while it won't save the Germans on the eastern front will make the Soviet advance slower and more costly for them.

I think the Japanese were trying for assorted deals with the Soviets. Even offering them the remains of the IJN. Basically to get them to act as a 'friendly' negotiator for a peace deal between Japan and the allies IIRC. [That was how totally out of touch the Japanese leadership was!]

Also its probable that Stalin had already decided on joining the war in the Pacific, so he could strengthen his position there.

Steve

 

[Artatochor]

The army is not going to surrender to anyone at this point; there were elements that tried to mount a coup to stop the surrender OTL. They still think they can win or at least achieve acceptable terms. The USA will also insist that any surrender be to the allies as a whole and that they should occupy Japan; and in the Pacific in 1944 they have the means to enforce that insistence.

Japan has nothing to offer that would persuade Stalin to jeopardize his plans for post war Europe, and I suspect he's going to have chemical weapon problems closer to home to worry about...

Modern ship designs(especially when compared to the Soviets), a boost in collective Comintern manpower, bioweapon knowledge, perhaps some aircraft designs too(the J9Y Kikka was quite advanced)...

The Americans can't actually force the Soviets to do anything, not until the 3. Reich is alive.

 

[PaulJones202718]

It seems to me that Stalin would probably wait until after the Americans have visited the Armageddon Hirohito fears to start picking up loose secrets. Less risk that way.

 

[stevep]

Modern ship designs(especially when compared to the Soviets), a boost in collective Comintern manpower, bioweapon knowledge, perhaps some aircraft designs too(the J9Y Kikka was quite advanced)...

The Americans can't actually force the Soviets to do anything, not until the 3. Reich is alive.

Artatochor

Modern compared to the Soviets but fairly backward compared to the western powers by now. Any such designs would have to be developed for the Soviets and then built, which would take a long time.

Also its not a question of the Americans being able to force the Soviets to do something. Its whether the Soviets want to effectively form an alliance with the shattered state that has just launched bio-warfare attacks on the US. This would be very dangerous for Stalin's empire. [Not as dangerous as it might appear to him as I doubt he knows about Hitler's plans for attacking the US, but he's still going to make the US very mad.]

Steve

 

[Artatochor]

Artatochor

Modern compared to the Soviets but fairly backward compared to the western powers by now. Any such designs would have to be developed for the Soviets and then built, which would take a long time.

Also its not a question of the Americans being able to force the Soviets to do something. Its whether the Soviets want to effectively form an alliance with the shattered state that has just launched bio-warfare attacks on the US. This would be very dangerous for Stalin's empire. [Not as dangerous as it might appear to him as I doubt he knows about Hitler's plans for attacking the US, but he's still going to make the US very mad.]

Steve

If Stalin has a Cold War/WW3 in mind, then an additional ally won't hurt. Soviets aren't good much at naval warfare, and Japan can bolster them, in that regard. Shattered state-perhaps, but its land army is still there, at this point.

 

[pdf27]

If Stalin has a Cold War/WW3 in mind, then an additional ally won't hurt. Soviets aren't good much at naval warfare, and Japan can bolster them, in that regard. Shattered state-perhaps, but its land army is still there, at this point.

When it comes at the cost of some right-now enemies? Stalin's #1 priority was ensuring the Western Allies didn't sign a separate peace with Germany. If he gives the Japanese any help, that makes a separate peace much more likely.

Stalin's main focus will be setting up client states in Eastern Europe to act as a buffer for European Russia though. Unless he can take the lot first, he's going to need the cooperation of Roosevelt (Churchill being much less friendly pretty much had to be forced by Roosevelt to make the concessions he did) to get it - which means a Soviet DoW on Japan. Indeed, with the US even more keen to crush Japan I would expect the price offered by the Americans to go up with a correspondingly reduced chance of any Soviet-Japanese agreement.

 

[Garrison]

If Stalin has a Cold War/WW3 in mind, then an additional ally won't hurt. Soviets aren't good much at naval warfare, and Japan can bolster them, in that regard. Shattered state-perhaps, but its land army is still there, at this point.

It is simply not credible that Stalin would do such a thing. Why provoke the USA; which is at this point still an ally, by aligning with a nation that the USA detests with a passion?

One of the major reasons the USA bent over backwards to accommodate the USSR was to bring them into the war in the Pacific; if they've delivered such a slap in the face the US is going to play hardball over Europe. Also as far as technology transfer goes the USSR are already being gifted huge amounts by the Western Allies; why sacrifice that for a few pointers on bio weapons they can pick up from the ruins or by espionage as they did with rocketry and nuclear weapons?

 

[Garrison]

When it comes at the cost of some right-now enemies? Stalin's #1 priority was ensuring the Western Allies didn't sign a separate peace with Germany. If he gives the Japanese any help, that makes a separate peace much more likely.

Stalin's main focus will be setting up client states in Eastern Europe to act as a buffer for European Russia though. Unless he can take the lot first, he's going to need the cooperation of Roosevelt (Churchill being much less friendly pretty much had to be forced by Roosevelt to make the concessions he did) to get it - which means a Soviet DoW on Japan. Indeed, with the US even more keen to crush Japan I would expect the price offered by the Americans to go up with a correspondingly reduced chance of any Soviet-Japanese agreement.

All of the above plus I suspect Stalin will be expending his efforts to dissuade the British from enacting Operation Vegetarian in the wake of the German attacks; he doesn't want his buffer reduced to a wasteland after all. The last thing he needs is a Japanese millstone around his neck.

 

[stevep]

All of the above plus I suspect Stalin will be expending his efforts to dissuade the British from enacting Operation Vegetarian in the wake of the German attacks; he doesn't want his buffer reduced to a wasteland after all. The last thing he needs is a Japanese millstone around his neck.

It is simply not credible that Stalin would do such a thing. Why provoke the USA; which is at this point still an ally, by aligning with a nation that the USA detests with a passion?

One of the major reasons the USA bent over backwards to accommodate the USSR was to bring them into the war in the Pacific; if they've delivered such a slap in the face the US is going to play hardball over Europe. Also as far as technology transfer goes the USSR are already being gifted huge amounts by the Western Allies; why sacrifice that for a few pointers on bio weapons they can pick up from the ruins or by espionage as they did with rocketry and nuclear weapons?

When it comes at the cost of some right-now enemies? Stalin's #1 priority was ensuring the Western Allies didn't sign a separate peace with Germany. If he gives the Japanese any help, that makes a separate peace much more likely.

Stalin's main focus will be setting up client states in Eastern Europe to act as a buffer for European Russia though. Unless he can take the lot first, he's going to need the cooperation of Roosevelt (Churchill being much less friendly pretty much had to be forced by Roosevelt to make the concessions he did) to get it - which means a Soviet DoW on Japan. Indeed, with the US even more keen to crush Japan I would expect the price offered by the Americans to go up with a correspondingly reduced chance of any Soviet-Japanese agreement.

Guys

Fully agree on most of this. Not sure about Stalin opposing Operation Vegetarian as he might not realise how little fight there is actually left in Germany and how much damage it could actually do.

To ally with, or give aid to Japan would be seen by many Americans as basically an act of war. I can't see a separate peace, especially not with the Nazis. However I could see the western powers under those circumstances, [at least until Hitler's latest bit of stupidity occurs] agreeing a separate surrender. Even after this I could see a lot of German military leaders wanting to surrender to the western powers, possibly even more once they see how desperate the situation is, and the west agreeing to this. You could see the border when the fighting ends being significantly further east. Not to mention if Rooservelt dies earlier I think Truman would be distinctly less friendly to Stalin. [Although not sure of the exact timing of events with Wallace still being the current Vice President until the 44 election takes effect?]

Steve

 

[Artatochor]

German generals might surrender to the Allies, if there was no plans for gassing the joint armies in Belgium. But, the situation that will unfold makes that improbable. What about a separate peace with both Japan and Nazi Germany? With a view to set up a communist revolution.

 

[mcdo]

If August Storm isn't butterflied somehow, I wonder if Unit 731 and its subsidiaries would attack the Red Army with bacteriological weapons. After all, the seal is already broken, and the main research lab is right there, so they're sure to have something on hand... I'm sure it wouldn't slow the Soviets down much, but it will cause causalities down the road. In OTL the Soviets used what they found at the Pingfang facility for their own bio-weapons program. If such weapons are used on their own troops, they're probably going to be eager to learn all they can, and start their own program. Might have some repercussions later on in the Cold War.

Edit:

Apparently (according to Wiki, anyway) Unit 100 did have plans to use bioweapons in the case of a Soviet invasion:

Unit chief Yujiro Wakamatsu ordered Hirazakura to purchase hundreds of cattle and put them to pasture along the Soviet border north-east of Hailar, ready to be infected by airborne dispersion. It was hoped that in the event of a Soviet invasion these infected livestock would mingle with local herds to cause epidemics[...] to destroy food supplies.

 

[Garrison]

Guys

Fully agree on most of this. Not sure about Stalin opposing Operation Vegetarian as he might not realise how little fight there is actually left in Germany and how much damage it could actually do.

To ally with, or give aid to Japan would be seen by many Americans as basically an act of war. I can't see a separate peace, especially not with the Nazis. However I could see the western powers under those circumstances, [at least until Hitler's latest bit of stupidity occurs] agreeing a separate surrender. Even after this I could see a lot of German military leaders wanting to surrender to the western powers, possibly even more once they see how desperate the situation is, and the west agreeing to this. You could see the border when the fighting ends being significantly further east. Not to mention if Rooservelt dies earlier I think Truman would be distinctly less friendly to Stalin. [Although not sure of the exact timing of events with Wallace still being the current Vice President until the 44 election takes effect?]

Steve

Wallace would be the ultimate lame duck president; not trusted, little support even among his own party. Is there any way constitutionally to move him aside and bring Truman into office; assuming that Roosevelt's premature death does happen?

 

[MerryPrankster]

Wallace would be the ultimate lame duck president; not trusted, little support even among his own party. Is there any way constitutionally to move him aside and bring Truman into office; assuming that Roosevelt's premature death does happen?

He could be put under a lot of pressure by the party bigwigs to resign.