Germany and France in the "Coalition of the Willing"

Prometheus

WI France and Germany had supported the war in Iraq with a significant military force?

Would it have made a difference in the actual war?

And what would the political implications have been?
 

Jeeves

How could they have done that? Neither the German nor the French people supported the war - quite the opposite. I don't think Schröder would have been allowed to run for the SPD on a pro-war basis in 2002, and he's too much of an opportunist to do so anyway. You need to come up with an earlier PoD to explain their participation.

Militarily, the Bundeswehr wasn't (and still isn't) equipped to support large foreign deployments - can't really say what the situation with the French forces is. The Bundeswehr was build for defense and limited counterattacks against the Soviet ground forces, there simply wasn't any need (or spare funds) for things like heavy long-range transports, combat aircraft with enormous range or naval transport for heavy units. Even the current deployments are stretching the available resources pretty thin - look at the problems in just getting half a dozen recce Tornados to Afghanistan recently ...

And given stagnant funding, high personnel costs and (in my experience) loads of money being wasted the situation isn't likely to improve that soon.
 

Max Sinister

Banned
Extremely unlikely. As was said, Dubya isn't exactly popular in F+G. Al Gore would have a better chance, but it'd still be difficult. France goes its own way somehow since de Gaulle, and many people in Germany don't like the idea of sending German troops abroad, after the experiences of WW2.
 

Ace Venom

It's not likely. Saddam Hussein would have had to do something even more incredibly stupid in recent memory to turn France and Germany against him. Hussein would have needed to launch another one of his ethnic purges to do that. I don't believe France and Germany felt it was worth it going into Iraq just to enforce an agreement from twelve years ago.
 

fhaessig

New Yorker said:
I;m sure Iraq would have cut off the kickback payments to the French if the French had supported the US!
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AH, DBWI!


In this case, the french Mark would have collapsed sooner and the ReichMark would have also, instead of tethering on the brink before barely managing to escape.
 

Emperor Qianlong

I think it would work if you have the POD somewhere earlier (even though this may threaten to butterfly 9/11 away ... well, let's assume for the moment that was not the case ;) ), basically where a more conservative Germany (no 68ers movement, etc.) exists today. I would imagine such a Germany would be eager to join the coalition of the willing.
 

Dr. No

Make Germany fight in Iraq: Easy, make the center-right parties win the 2002 general elections, they lost them by narrow margin IOTL.
A possibility for a center-right victory would have been a loss of Schroeder's motion of confidence he made in the end of 2001 he combined with the vote about German troups in Afghanistan. Chances for a center-right victory at the early 2002 elections would have been somethat lower than at the late 2002 elections IOTL. The time inbetween, most notably between February/March and August (when the tide in the East did formidably for Schroeder's PR), would have been the best time to make a relatively sure center-right victory possible. You would have to make 9/11 happen somewhat later, let's say become 3/11/2002 rather than 9/11/2001.

Make France fight in Iraq: That's quite more difficult. But they would have been clearly isolated if Germany had joined the coalition of the willings under a center-right government.

RESULT: Making France join the Third Gulf War with a POD after 2001 is quite ASB, making Germany do the same is not.
​
 

Homer

Dr. Nodelescu said:
Make Germany fight in Iraq: Easy, make the center-right parties win the 2002 general elections, they lost them by narrow margin IOTL.

​
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I'm not sure whether a center-right coalition would join the coalition of the willing right away. I'd say they'd avoid german participation in the attack itself, yet they'd send troops in the aftermath and probably get some province like Italy or Poland.
 

Kabraloth

Germany joining in the Iraq war from the beginning would trigger a major political crisis or a prolonged disintegration: our base law quite explicitely forbids us from waging any war of aggression.
If worst comes to worse (although it IS quite a stretch), you could even have a low-level civil war.
 

DocOrlando

An easier way to take care of all of this is to have the UN stridently uphold the language of its initial resolutions. If the UN were more stalwart about backing up such resolutions, rather than huffing and puffing when some tinpot dictator calls its bluff, there may have been German and French troops under a UN banner and on Iraqi sand at some point.

However, having the UN put its bite where its bark is falls into ASB territory all by itself.
 

Riain

Banned
Perhaps if France and Germany were involved Turkey may have allowed the invasion from its territory, and the postwar planning may have been realistic rather than a hopeful dream. But I don't think Iraq is screwed today becuase there aren't enough troops and countries there.
 

Chengar Qordath

Max Sinister said:
Extremely unlikely. As was said, Dubya isn't exactly popular in F+G. Al Gore would have a better chance, but it'd still be difficult. France goes its own way somehow since de Gaulle, and many people in Germany don't like the idea of sending German troops abroad, after the experiences of WW2.
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Doesn't a lot of Bush's unpopularity in France and Germany stem from the fallout from Iraq war though?
 

The Ubbergeek

DocOrlando said:
An easier way to take care of all of this is to have the UN stridently uphold the language of its initial resolutions. If the UN were more stalwart about backing up such resolutions, rather than huffing and puffing when some tinpot dictator calls its bluff, there may have been German and French troops under a UN banner and on Iraqi sand at some point.

However, having the UN put its bite where its bark is falls into ASB territory all by itself.
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Or perhaps the UN founds the USA's discourse a bit... lacking?
 

Homer

Kabraloth said:
Germany joining in the Iraq war from the beginning would trigger a major political crisis or a prolonged disintegration: our base law quite explicitely forbids us from waging any war of aggression.
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Of course: if the POD is SPD/Greens/Leftists are against the war and a center right coalition joins the war, everything else as OTL, you'd have a significant constitutional crisis and a fast decision by the constitutional court which would interdict the war.

A stronger POD however could do it, since the war against Jugoslavia about the Kosovo was a war of aggression, although supported by all parties (besides the leftist, of course), majority of the population, EU, NATO...
 

Kabraloth

Homer said:
Of course: if the POD is SPD/Greens/Leftists are against the war and a center right coalition joins the war, everything else as OTL, you'd have a significant constitutional crisis and a fast decision by the constitutional court which would interdict the war.

A stronger POD however could do it, since the war against Jugoslavia about the Kosovo was a war of aggression, although supported by all parties (besides the leftist, of course), majority of the population, EU, NATO...
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The trick with Yugoslavia was a different beast: Germany did not join it, it merely lent some of its bombers to NATO. And it did cause a massive fallout within the Green party.
Outright joining a war is very different (that is: clearly and explicitely forbidden). As for one, technically the German army needs to dissolve in times of war.
 
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