For Want of a Referendum-A TLIATW
- Thread starter Pericles
- Start date
More privatisation than OTL? Steve Maharey, Prime Minister? My my, we are cruising for quite the dystopia here, aren't we? 
More privatisation than OTL? Steve Maharey, Prime Minister? My my, we are cruising for quite the dystopia here, aren't we?
You will see....
Let's hope Pericles isn't Lost Freeway. If he is, RIP Kiwiland.
What did Lost Freeway do?
He made Santorum president in one of his TLs.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=376575
He doesn't seem to mention New Zealand, judging from a quick search, though the world is quite dystopic. So are you just comparing me to him in saying I make dystopic TLs. No spoilers but I'll try be plausible here and not too dystopic, though things could well turn out worse than OTL(they could be better too)
I'm not saying you are making dystopic TLs. But I am warning readers in advance if you do.
I'm not saying you are making dystopic TLs. But I am warning readers in advance if you do.
Good idea
My main focus is what I view as a plausible outcome, and so I won't go overboard in either direction. Onto 2005.
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2005
After three years, Maharey faced the judgement of the voters again. The Fifth Labour Government had a mixed record. National, now led by Bill English, complained about the lack of talent in cabinet and several ministerial scandals had dogged the government. The party base supported many of Maharey's measures, but felt they hadn't gone far enough. In a boon to the unions the Employment Contracts Act was replaced by the Employment Relations Act, but even there many in Labour's base thought it didn't go far enough. In government Maharey adhered to his 'third way' rhetoric, and so he avoided making any moves too far to the left, despite the desires of his base. Maharey did reverse several privatizations, such as the privatization of Meridian Energy, Genesis Power and Mighty River Power. However one of the major issues of Maharey's first term was the PM's rupture with his Maori supporters. In 2004 the foreshore and seabed controversy reached boiling point and so Maharey was forced to take action. National was quick to prepare an attack on Labour for 'Maori privilege' and polls showed that Maharey had very little room to cater to the Maori on this issue. Labour proposed an initial bill which tried to push a middle ground on the issue, but public outcry on both sides forced Maharey to take a side. To the surprise of many he sided against the Maori. The Foreshore and Seabed Act vested ownership of the foreshore and seabed with the Crown and eliminated consultation with the Maori. Many Pakeha supported the bill and National announced support for the bill, ensuring its passage. Maori were furious, and 2 Maori MPs(Nanaia Mahuta and Tariana Turia) formed the Maori Party, along with academic Pita Sharples. This new Maori Party gained a surprising surge in support and promised to be a wildcard in the 2005 election.
National was led by Bill English, who toppled Shipley in 2003. During the three years after its defeat, National had not made much effort to revitalize its popularity and offer an appealing alternative to Maharey's 'third way'. They repeated their 2002 mistake in expecting Maharey to fail on his own. That nearly happened in the foreshore and seabed controversy, where the Prime Minister's credibility to both sides was wounded. However many New Zealanders ultimately supported Maharey's position, and in taking National's position on the issue he undercut them, forcing National to support him and eliminating a key line of attack. Heading into 2005 the polls showed Labour ahead but by no more than 5%.
The 2005 campaign was launched, and Labour secured its lead. Maharey, as in 2002, ran a professional, polished campaign, even as several rallies were disrupted by protesters. National by contrast struggled in the campaign and its leader English was unable to gain his footing and came under attack from Maharey, who alleged he would have led New Zealand into the Iraq War and tried to use the issue of Iraq and Bush to knock National off their balance. Labour ran on its record, telling voters it was a centrist government that ensured "prosperity for all New Zealanders." National never managed to get properly ahead of Labour in the campaign, by neither did it fall behind. Instead the polls remained close and neither party was ever able to get in a position it was fully comfortable with. Ultimately though, Labour found its position was good enough.
2005 NZ election results
Steve Maharey-Labour: 58_ 48.50%
Bill English-National: 46-1 44.83%
Tariana Turia/Pita Sharples-Maori: 4+4 2.30%
108 seats
54 for majority
Labour won a second term in office, its professional campaign and 'third way' carrying the day. Maharey was victorious, crowing "The idea that National is the party of government, that idea is dead!" Whether it really was dead remained to be seeen. And so Maharey entered his second term wounded, but not out. Not for another three years at least.
2008
After a turbulent first term, Labour struggled through its second term. By 2008 divisions in caucus were open as left-wing MPs complained about Maharey's refusal and inability to accomplish their goals. Prime Minister Maharey tripped up at several points, including a 2007 controversy where he made politically-incorrect comments about Asians. In 2008 the global economic crisis that was developing seeped into New Zealand. In Foxton and other places there were job losses and the New Zealand economy went into recession. By the election there was widespread dissatisfaction with the Maharey government.National however had put up a new leader who shared some of Maharey's flaws. That leader was Gerry Brownlee. In 2006 after the election result and continued poor poll numbers English was sacked and Brownlee bought in. Brownlee was an MP elected in 1996 and who had become more influential in Opposition. After a failed run at the deputy leadership in 2003 he secured that position in 2004 and then maneuvered himself into a position to challenge English. Brownlee's leadership got off to a good start, with a reshugffle in caucus giving the party a newer, younger face. However Brownlee soon encountered controversy, just like Maharey. Brownlee was criticized for advocating mining on conservation land, as well as an incident where he evaded airport security.
Entering 2008 the polls were neck in neck. Many voters were dissatisfied with the choices on offer, and analysts worried that turnout would fall even more than it had been before. The Electoral Commission therefore mounted a vigorous campaign to encourage voter turnout. Third parties like the Greens were doing well in 2008. The Greens polled around 5%, one poll even showed them at 8%, but they were never projected to win any seats in parliament. The Maori Party meanwhile lost support as many voters questioned its relevance. Labour and National remained virtually tied in the polls for the whole campaign, and by the end many pundits predicted a nailbiter election.
2008 NZ election results
Gerry Brownlee-National: 55+9 44.22%
Steve Maharey-Labour: 52-6 44.93%
Tariana Turia/Pita Sharples-Maori: 2-2 1.99%
Russel Norman/Jeanette Fitzsimmons-Green: 0_ 5.72%
109 seats
55 for majority
It was indeed. But Maharey refused to concede defeat, pointing to the Manawatu electorate, where National candidate Nathan Guy had only won by 7 votes. Maharey called for a recount. If Guy lost then there would be a hung parliament and it would be likely that Labour would form an agreement to govern with the Maori Party. And so the next few weeks saw legal challenges as New Zealand underwent its very own version of Gore v Bush. Ultimtaley though the recount was held and 22 days after the election it was announced Guy had won, with a majority of 15 votes. And so the Fifth Labour Government came to an end. The issue of electoral reform, considered dead after the 1990s, was ressurected, with proponents pointing out that under a more proportional system the Greens would have gotten something for their 6% of the vote, Labour would have not lost while winning the popular vote and there would not have been the whole recount drama. But many New Zealanders remained skeptical of electoral reform, and feared the unintended effects of that reform. And so the Fifth National Government was born, and Gerry Brownlee was PM.
Oh God, you're not seriously going to -
My God
What horrors await us all?Keep up the good work!
Oh God, you're not seriously going to -
My God
Keep up the good work!
Thanks for the compliment. More will come...
Gerry Brownlee? Really?
Eeeesh.
... ya know, i have problems with MMP as currently implimented in NZ, but this timeline nicely shows why i'm Very glad we got rid of FPP!
(To be fair, this is because i'm of the opinion that the national party as an entity needs to go die in a fire, and i'd not be at all upset if labour followed them in! 'course, that's hardly the end of my unrealistic political dreams )
Eeeesh.
... ya know, i have problems with MMP as currently implimented in NZ, but this timeline nicely shows why i'm Very glad we got rid of FPP!
(To be fair, this is because i'm of the opinion that the national party as an entity needs to go die in a fire, and i'd not be at all upset if labour followed them in! 'course, that's hardly the end of my unrealistic political dreams
)2011
The Fifth National Government proved controversial, as was to be expected, given its manner of victory. Prime Minister Brownlee was widely criticized for an overly partisan and confrontational style. Brownlee soon proved that being PM made him no less of a controversial figure. National during this time was faced with an economic recession. In the 2009 budget, presented by Finance Minister Don Brash, income taxes were cut deeply, with the top income tax rate falling from 39% to 30%. To pay for this Brash made cuts to social spending, the arts and other government agencies. The budget was fiercely opposed by Labour, who claimed it was a tax giveaway to the rich and Brash's austerity was unfair and harmful to the economy. Critics also claimed Brash's policies would ultimately increase the deficit, while the Finance Minister alleged he had to make cuts due to the 'fiscal irresponsibility' of the Maharey government. In the 2010 budget company tax fell to 28% and in the GST was raised to 15%. Labour was furious, attacking Brash and Brownlee as making giveaways to the rich and targeting the poor. However from 2010 the NZ economy began to grow again and unemployment fell. By election day the unemployment rate was at 6.5%, having fallen from a high of 7.7% in late 2009. Brownlee and Brash claimed vindication but many still opposed their policies and the Fifth National Government remained deeply controversial. The government also infuriated environmentalists when it watered down the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme. The government did however benefit from its handling of the Pike River Mine disaster and from the Christchurch earthquakes. Heading into the election National had a lead in the polls but by no means an insurmountable one. Labour meanwhile was divided between Maharey supporters, who sought to continue with the former Prime Minister's policies and 'third way' and the party base. Maharey resigned and David Shearer was elected leader. Shearer was a freshman MP, elected in 2005*, and rose to unexpected prominence after Maharey's downfall. No other leading establishment figures stood to take the leadership, with former Deputy PM Michael Cullen declining and so Shearer defeated David Cunliffe in a caucus vote. Shearer struggled to appeal to the general electorate and faced a divided party, with allegations that Cunliffe and other opponents undermining his leadership. Heading into 2011 Labour was behind in the polls, shedding votes to the Greens and divided. However it was only behind by around 5%, and a party desperate to avoid a repeat of the 1990s and defeat a vulnerable government prepared for the election.
The campaign began with the momentum on National's side. With a relatively good economy, at least compared to overseas, and a weak opposition, Prime Minsiter Bronwlee seemed likely to be re-elected. Labour under Shearer ran a surprsingly strong campaign, avoiding major slipups. The Greens fell in the polls from their brief heights where they had gotten double-digits, as left-wing voters turned to Labour, fearing the Greens were just spoilers. The Maori Party meanwhile was in decline, having poved irrelevant in the last two elections and its purpose gone, Maori voters were returning to Labour. The debates were inconclusive, but through the campaign many pundits thought Shearer did better than expected. Brownlee meanwhile struggled on the campaign trail and much of his campaign was facing numerous minor controversies. By the end National's lead had been significantly narrowed and some polls even showed a Labour lead. Many analysts predicted it would be almost as close as 2008.
2011 NZ election results
Gerry Bronwlee-National: 61+6 45.66%
David Shearer-Labour: 48-4 43.85%
Russel Norman/Metiria Turei-Green: 0_ 7.06%
Tariana Turia/Pita Sharples-Maori: 0-2 0.93%
National had been re-elected and had a new mandate for its second term. Shearer promptly resigned and Labour would have to elect a new leader, with a new system including members and unions. The 2011 results reaffirmed the dominance of the two major parties with the failure of the Greens to win any seats and the fall of the Maori Party. And so Brownlee's second term began.
*This is due to butterflies.
2014
After the 2011 election, shearer resigned as leader. Under a new process which gave voice to the members and unions David Cunliffe won a resounding victory in the leadership election. Cunliffe initially did well but soon struggled with image problems. By 2013 Labour's poll numbers were in the doldrums and there was widespread dissatisfaction with the party leadership. In mid-2013 plotting began to unseat Cunliffe. The party conference was tense with MPs complaining about Cunliffe. Weeks later David Cunliffe was booted out. In the following leadership contest Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson won, becoming the first openly gay leader of a major party in NZ history. The leadership change, plus Brownlee's unpopularity, made the polls close heading into 2014. Labour was stronger this time, but many feared that Robertosn's sexuality would hurt Labour and that yet again they would fail.National entered 2014 with a good economy. But Brownlee's popularity had gone down, not up, with the GSCB being a major dent in it and minor scandals tarring his image. National experienced its first internal divisions in years, if not decades, when Brash and Brownlee fell out. In 2013, Finance Minister Brash resigned and attacked Brownlee as a "coward" on economic policy, saying he wasn't doing enough to reduce the deficit. Brash, counting on support in caucus, challenged Brownlee in a leadership challenge and was humiliated. Brash and his few supporters continued to stir matters before Brash announced he would retire from parliament in the election. Brownlee also faced an increasingly bitter relationship with the press and through his second term negative stories flared up frequently. By 2014 many voters wanted a change. The question was whether Robertson would be that change.
Brownlee made the campaign the longest in history in a gamble hoping that Labour would fade as the campaign went on. Given National's poor 2011 campaign that logic seemed questionable. National ran their campaign boasting of a 'rock-star economy' though New Zealand's economy, while good, was not great, according to many voters and analysts. Robertson's campaign lacked much inspiration, and pundits criticized Labour for lacking clear messaging. The campaign frustrated many voters as it was a drawn-out no holds-barred mudfight, with personal attacks taking unusual precedence. The debates were a draw, maybe lean Robertson. The polls remained neck in neck, and it culd break either way. In the last week, it broke for Labour. Don Brash made a resurgence and proved a distracting news story when he said he wasn't voting in the election. A National party candidate was forced to be withdrawn after they made crude and sexist comments. Economic growth statistics were disappointing. And Brownlee got in deep trouble after a gaffe when he made offensive comments about Robertson's sexuality. Heading into election day Labour had momentum and it was increasingly clear the voters wanted change.
2014 NZ election results
Grant Robertson-Labour: 59+11 46.65%
Gerry Brownlee-National: 54-7 43.11%
113 seats
57 for majority
And so New Zealand had a new government. The Sixth Labour Government had come into being. And so under the two party duopoly a government widely regarded as a poor one was dumped and an uncertain future lay ahead, looked at with angst but also hope. Advocates for electoral reform had support in the Labour caucus, perhaps finally New Zealand could have a serious discussion on that issue. If it had done so 20 years ago, it would be a far different place, for better or for worse.
Thanks for writing this Pericles! Always good to see another NZ TL on the board!