EU without WW2?

[Deleted member 1487]

Given the efforts at rapprochement in the 1920s, assuming the Nazis don't rise to power and whatever government Germany gets in the 1930s doesn't end up going to war over Poland would the Germans and French be able to reconcile and eventually form an EEC and EU at some point or would that require WW2? I think it would at least be delayed until the 1940s before the situation could be reconciled after the bad blood of the 1920s-30s, but with a longer peace and seeing the benefits of working together its not inconceivable. Thoughts?

 

[Delvestius]

If not the Nazis or another right-wing group, then it would probably be the Communists. This would probably support the Communists in France, and together in cooperation with Russia fascist Italy would be overthrown and fascist Spain avoided, while Republican Spain experiences a Communist revolution supported by other Communist states. The U.S. and U.K. would be quite isolationist in this timeline, even more so than OTL and will likely create an Anglo-capitalist superstate. Comintern, resembling the Orwellian Eurasia, would constitute the European super state in lieu of it's OTL capitalist counterpart.

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

At first to come true it would mean that especially France and Poland have to move. Germany did under Stresemann in regards to France, but the French government did not. Likewise Poland and their "casus belli" Danzig.

Considering this situation you need a POD in these states as well, which honestly I can't see. IF that happened, however, you have the chance to get an EEC/EC/EU earlier.

 

[Monty Burns]

Given the efforts at rapprochement in the 1920s, assuming the Nazis don't rise to power and whatever government Germany gets in the 1930s doesn't end up going to war over Poland would the Germans and French be able to reconcile and eventually form an EEC and EU at some point or would that require WW2? I think it would at least be delayed until the 1940s before the situation could be reconciled after the bad blood of the 1920s-30s, but with a longer peace and seeing the benefits of working together its not inconceivable. Thoughts?

A major contributing factor was that after WWII, both France and Germany were clearly second tier powers at best and hence dependent on others. A common enemy may provide that even without WWII, yet the question is where to find that common enemy that is strong enough to become a credible threat even to cooperating Germany and France. The Soviet Union has a long way to go there.

Another contributing factor to rapprochement IMHO was that after WWII, both France and Germany were defeated. France came out as victor only because they were invited, everybody still remembered the German occupation. After WWI, France was clearly a victor.

 

[Snaut]

At first to come true it would mean that especially France and Poland have to move. Germany did under Stresemann in regards to France, but the French government did not. Likewise Poland and their "casus belli" Danzig.

Considering this situation you need a POD in these states as well, which honestly I can't see. IF that happened, however, you have the chance to get an EEC/EC/EU earlier.

France ultimately proved to be quite ready to appease, so in the long run I wouldn't worry about it provided Germany doesn't go mad in the meantime. If Germany had not spent the interwar period alternating between trying to annex large parts of Poland with little to no Germans in collaboration with the USSR, waging economic warfare against it and trying to make Poland into a source of cannon fodder in a crazy war, I suppose Poland would have been a lot more willing to make reasonable concessions.

 

[Napoleon IV]

If not the Nazis or another right-wing group, then it would probably be the Communists. This would probably support the Communists in France, and together in cooperation with Russia fascist Italy would be overthrown and fascist Spain avoided, while Republican Spain experiences a Communist revolution supported by other Communist states. The U.S. and U.K. would be quite isolationist in this timeline, even more so than OTL and will likely create an Anglo-capitalist superstate. Comintern, resembling the Orwellian Eurasia, would constitute the European super state in lieu of it's OTL capitalist counterpart.

The Communists aren't coming to power in Germany. They only really gained support as a result of the Depression, like the Nazis, but unlike the Nazis they were unable to make deals with German military, political, and business leaders that ultimately put the Nazis over the top. In addition if they tried a revolution the Reichswehr and various paramilitary groups such as the Stalhelm and Reichsbanner Schwartz-Rot-Gold (both of which were larger than the Communist paramilitary group, the Rotfrontkampferbund) would crush them. And a Communist France is even less likely. Prior to the Popular Front the PCF was marginal, and before WWII they weren't even close to being the largest party in France.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

France ultimately proved to be quite ready to appease, so in the long run I wouldn't worry about it provided Germany doesn't go mad in the meantime. If Germany had not spent the interwar period alternating between trying to annex large parts of Poland with little to no Germans in collaboration with the USSR, waging economic warfare against it and trying to make Poland into a source of cannon fodder in a crazy war, I suppose Poland would have been a lot more willing to make reasonable concessions.

So what would the chances be if Germany was willing to work with France, but not Poland, could France then turn on Poland and support Germany on Danzig, especially if the German cultivated Britain like Hitler did?

 

[Delvestius]

The Communists aren't coming to power in Germany. They only really gained support as a result of the Depression, like the Nazis, but unlike the Nazis they were unable to make deals with German military, political, and business leaders that ultimately put the Nazis over the top. In addition if they tried a revolution the Reichswehr and various paramilitary groups such as the Stalhelm and Reichsbanner Schwartz-Rot-Gold (both of which were larger than the Communist paramilitary group, the Rotfrontkampferbund) would crush them.

It's unlikely but not implausible if the Communists were more politically saavy. There was a power vacuum to fill and the central government had almost no power. It would be a state-by-state endeavor until critical mass has been reached.

And a Communist France is even less likely. Prior to the Popular Front the PCF was marginal, and before WWII they weren't even close to being the largest party in France.

Butterflies, if Germany goes communist it would be everywhere, remember the whole German occupation thing of WWII??

 

[riggerrob]

Filling power vacuums ...
Progress on the downslope ...

Without one or two destructive wars, Europe was unlikely to see the error of their old ways and cooperate.

 

[zoomar]

Would there even be an EU? Part of the rationale of the EEC, EU, and NATO was to tie Germany so closely to the west (and especially France) that Germany would never again "go crazy".

If Germany reformed itself in the 1930's (unlikely, but that is the OP) and became a productive and reliable member of the west and there was no WW2would there even be much push for political integration in Europe? Especially, with the League of Nations presumably being a going concern?

 

[Delvestius]

Filling power vacuums ...
Progress on the downslope ...

Without one or two destructive wars, Europe was unlikely to see the error of their old ways and cooperate.

On the contrary, they would have no lessons to learn from, and the longer they wait the bloodier a war will be.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Would there even be an EU? Part of the rationale of the EEC, EU, and NATO was to tie Germany so closely to the west (and especially France) that Germany would never again "go crazy".

If Germany reformed itself in the 1930's (unlikely, but that is the OP) and became a productive and reliable member of the west and there was no WW2would there even be much push for political integration in Europe? Especially, with the League of Nations presumably being a going concern?

I didn't say Germany had to reform in the 1930s, they could take into the 1940s or even later if needed, just no major war in Europe after WW1.

 

[Snaut]

So what would the chances be if Germany was willing to work with France, but not Poland, could France then turn on Poland and support Germany on Danzig, especially if the German cultivated Britain like Hitler did?

If OTL Germany got away with the Sudetenland, ATL Germany surely has a chance to get away with attacking Poland.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

If OTL Germany got away with the Sudetenland, ATL Germany surely has a chance to get away with attacking Poland.

Probably depends on the situation leading up to it; as it was Poland was actively talking about invading Germany if a German general assumed power in 1933.