Early Japan.

I read a thread earlier this month about the development of Japan, and how it might have avoided complete Isolationism.

I couldn't find it again, and thought I would bring up my premise again.

The courts in Edo and Osaka were very distrustful of the European traders who were beginning to radically change the traditional ways of the Japanese.

Just curious what you folks would think about the Southern Islands of Kyushu, and Shikoku breaking away from the Emperor/Shogun under Spanish influence. In OTL, Christianity was somewhat better received here.

What if, the Northern Islands regretfully decided that they would have to keep up relations with the Dutch and later perhaps the English?

In the Early 1700's the Shogun, rather correctly, surmised that the early incursions by the European powers were just a precursor to further moves by the Strange Foreigners. While the Southern Islands were entranced by the Missionaries of Spain and Portugal, The Northern Islands much more appreciated the black and white desires of the Dutch to simply trade with them, on the best terms possible.

I'm not proposing a permanant split Japan, but perhaps a Japan that can't isolate itself. As one side or the other receives new technology, the other is forced to make keep up with the proverbial Jones. I would also propose that the split would eventually follow Catholic/Protestant lines. Catholics were somewhat more interested in saving souls and gathering loot, than creating new markets for thier goods. I will grant that this is just my opinion.

How might something like this play out? Might Japan later be unified, and at a much earlier date, project its power in Asia proper? I'm most entrigued by the influence of two exceptional ocean going powers expediting Japans advance from a coastal navy, into a powerful force that might completely change the current map of the Pacific and Asia.
 

HelloLegend

Banned
I thought Tokugawa had defeated the Kyushu Daimyo alliance by the time of the Battle of Sekihargwa (spelling?) in 1600.

When u speak of Northern Islands... are u referring to the united Tokugawa Shogunate on Honshu or some dissent movement on Hokkaido?

Because the successor to Ieyasu, switched around the fiefdoms of the various daimyo after the unification.

Plus the enforcement of San kin Koe tai (the alternate attendance) manuever made it hard for Daimyo to raise funding to even maintain their existing militia, never mind raise a full fledged army to counter the Tokugawa.

Any end of isolation POD after about 1630 needs to come from outside Japan, not within. By then, the Tokugawa had a stranglehold on the nation until the 1850s.
 

NapoleonXIV

Banned
I thought Tokugawa had defeated the Kyushu Daimyo alliance by the time of the Battle of Sekihargwa (spelling?) in 1600.

When u speak of Northern Islands... are u referring to the united Tokugawa Shogunate on Honshu or some dissent movement on Hokkaido?

Because the successor to Ieyasu, switched around the fiefdoms of the various daimyo after the unification.

Plus the enforcement of San kin Koe tai (the alternate attendance) manuever made it hard for Daimyo to raise funding to even maintain their existing militia, never mind raise a full fledged army to counter the Tokugawa.

Any end of isolation POD after about 1630 needs to come from outside Japan, not within. By then, the Tokugawa had a stranglehold on the nation until the 1850s.

True, and the main problem if you try to make the Tokugawa themselves less isolationist is that the isolation functioned as much to protect the Tokugawa from their own daimyo as it did to protect Japan from foreigners. This was particularly the case as time went on, with even the Tokugawa eventually recognising that it was dangerous to stay isolated, but too afraid of revolt if they did end the isolation to do anything; and with good reason, as things turned out.

But having it come from outside much earlier than 1850 would also have been difficult because Japan was probably still just too powerful a nation to force open until then. The advantage of Western technology would not have been enough to decisively defeat the numbers and warrior culture of Japan until around the 1780's

I've always felt that the popular manga Blade of the Immortal, while it has substantial supernatural and psychosexual elements, also has this tension between the outside world and the increasingly useless samurai in the late 18thc as a sort of subtext, does anyone agree with me on this?

Also, I've read recently that the two main han that led the trend to modernisation, Satsuma and Choshu, had, in fact, substantial contact with the outside world and even largely Westernised armies well before the actual Meiji restoration and possibly even before Perry, is this so?
 

HelloLegend

Banned
Re: S and C... I don't remember. It has been many years since I was in a student of this subject.

Regarding Meiji...

I'm very surprised it was the US and not the British that opened up Japan.
 

NapoleonXIV

Banned
Re: S and C... I don't remember. It has been many years since I was in a student of this subject.

Regarding Meiji...

I'm very surprised it was the US and not the British that opened up Japan.


...or, for that matter, the Dutch, though no doubt the Dutch wanted to maintain their extremely lucrative exclusive contacts, but....hey.....what if the Tokugawa had started importing Western weaponry and maybe even expertise through Deshima, could you get a modernised Tokugawa, maybe even lasting to the present day??

True, modernisation was the main fear they had of nonisolation leading to revolt. The best example being that they feared access to better modern gunpowder might cause a revival of firearms among the Daimyo, (there had never been a prohibition of firearms as much as a religious call to have them turned in to make a statue of Buddha, and this coupled with the fact that the primitive gunpowder, which the Tokugawa had a monopoly on, made them much less effective than they might have been.) But if anybody could manage change it was the Tokugawa. Read what Jared Diamond says about how they managed Japan's forests.
 
The reason I sort of mentioned the Southern Islands of Kyushu and Shikoku, was that I hoped that a split between them and Honshu would be possible (I'm not sure that there was much of a Japanese presence on Hokkaido at this time).

I didn't just want two sides buying European materials and weapons, I'd like to see an earlier demonstration of Japanese ingenuity and innovation, being fueled by a long or short term conflict between the two that would probably end in the defeat of the Southern Islands. I'm just thinkiing that after a longer term influence by the new technolgy's, it would be much more difficult for anyone, even the Shogun or the Emperor, to wish these newfound ideas away.

I wasn't arguing what happened so much, as proposing a way that might have eased the Xenophobia that was present at the time. History would be far more chaotic, and interesting if something like this happened, IMO. Perhaps Oriental Asia is less taken advantage of, as a whole, with a stronger Japan to throw its weight around.

I'd just like to hear other POD's, or thoughts on how this might happen. Japan is a seldom mentioned culture on the board. It'd be nice to see some more about it.
 
The reason I sort of mentioned the Southern Islands of Kyushu and Shikoku, was that I hoped that a split between them and Honshu would be possible (I'm not sure that there was much of a Japanese presence on Hokkaido at this time).

I didn't just want two sides buying European materials and weapons, I'd like to see an earlier demonstration of Japanese ingenuity and innovation, being fueled by a long or short term conflict between the two that would probably end in the defeat of the Southern Islands. I'm just thinkiing that after a longer term influence by the new technolgy's, it would be much more difficult for anyone, even the Shogun or the Emperor, to wish these newfound ideas away.

I wasn't arguing what happened so much, as proposing a way that might have eased the Xenophobia that was present at the time. History would be far more chaotic, and interesting if something like this happened, IMO. Perhaps Oriental Asia is less taken advantage of, as a whole, with a stronger Japan to throw its weight around.

I'd just like to hear other POD's, or thoughts on how this might happen. Japan is a seldom mentioned culture on the board. It'd be nice to see some more about it.

Would this idea lead to an exodus of Christians from "South Japan"?
 

Thande

Donor
I agree with Fabilius and the Ubbergeek*, Japan is already absurdly overused on these forums...I'll let Flocc do the rant, assuming he shows up :D

*Thande spontaneously combusts from the sheer unlikelihood of this event :D
 
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