Did Pearl Harbor have to take place on December 7?

Hendryk

Banned
When featuring a Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor in ATLs, certain questions come to mind, one of which being the choice of the date. It's my understanding that the general period was determined by objectively intangible factors like the season--if it didn't take place in early December the next window of opportunity would have been the following spring. But what about the precise day? Are the factors that led to the choice of that date subject to modification by butterflies?

A related question: what about the third wave? could it have been launched?
 

Max Sinister

Banned
Maybe the Japanese were superstitious, and thought the 7th was a lucky day, but I don't know about their kind of esoterics.
 

Agrippa

What about the number 8? Wasn't it December 8th in Tokyo when the attack took place?

A related question: what about the third wave? could it have been launched?
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Yes, it was an option, though it would have faced heavier resistance than the first two waves (but not nearly enough to actually blunt the attack).
 

1940LaSalle

And it wasn't like the Japanese planned the attack more or less on the spur of the moment: from early in the 1930s, one of the questions in the final exam on strategy/tactics for seniors at the Japanese naval academy was, "How would you plan and execute a surprise raid on Pearl Harbor?".
 

BrianP

I'm just taking a wild guess here.

Perhaps the date wasn't specifically selected. When the diplomatic talks broke down, the Japanese figured it was as good of a time as any to launch the attack. The fleet set sail in November, and remained undetected for all of that time. It may be that it just happened to have arrived at Pearl on the 7th, and they could not wait any longer with the risk of being discovered. Perhaps the time of the attack (early morning) was pre-determined (sun angle, low rediness of enemy forces, etc.) but maybe not the date.
 
Sargon

Sargon

Donor
Monthly Donor
They knew the best time was to launch an attack early on a Sunday morning when the fleet would be least alert and the harbour relatively sleepy and free of traffic, especially important as lots of boats and smaller warships chugging about could mess up torpedo runs on the big boys...that appears to be part of the thinking involved if I remember my research into it.


Sargon

A Timeline of mine: The Roman Emperor Who Lost His Nose
 

PMN1

The time Japan would have run out of oil and the time they expected to take getting captured oil on line was a key factor in the general time they had to attack.
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CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Japan was under considerable pressure, time-wise. Pearl Harbor was only part of a huge series of attacks, all of which needed to be timed to maximum advantage. Sunday, as was already discussed, was the only day that Japan could be assured of finding the Battleship squadron all in port (got to love that peacetime Navy). British reinforcements to Singapore were also a concern, as were activities in the Philippines.

Lastly, Japan was on a short schedule. Every day it waited was another day when the oil was running out without any hope of replenishment. Every week that went by, the U.S. & to a lesser extent, the UK, increased readiness (as an example:The Lexington was on a plane ferrying mission on December 7.)

The 7th wasn't magical, it was just the first day that they could get all the elements they needed to come together.
 

Tizoc

Max Sinister said:
Either they use the same system as the Chinese (would be strange since they don't speak it), [...]
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Considering that kanji (main Japanese alphabet) is basically a Chinese alphabet with signs given Japanese spelling... notwithstanding more than a millenium of cultural influences...
 

pacifichistorian

Banned
BrianP said:
Perhaps the date wasn't specifically selected. When the diplomatic talks broke down, the Japanese figured it was as good of a time as any to launch the attack. The fleet set sail in November, and remained undetected for all of that time. It may be that it just happened to have arrived at Pearl on the 7th, and they could not wait any longer with the risk of being discovered. Perhaps the time of the attack (early morning) was pre-determined (sun angle, low rediness of enemy forces, etc.) but maybe not the date.
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The talks didn't break down. They were nothing but a stall. IJN was trying to get their air-dropped torpedoes sorted until the last minute. There was about a 3-week window between mid-November & mid-December for the attack to go, between when the torp mods worked well enough to go & when the weather was too foul to risk it. The Japanese selected Sunday because the PacFleet would be in (thanks to stupid predictability of operational rotation). They'd have been better advised to sortie 21 Nov & hit Pearl with both of Kimmel's CVs in harbor.
 

Atreus

The choice was deliberate, in the same way that June 6 for D-Day was deliberate. It was specifically chosen, but the date was determined by operational factors. Most of those have been discussed, but it basically boils down to something like this: Japan has to strike as soon as it can. The north pacific weather is to dangerous for carrier operations if you go past mid december, so it is in the Japanese best interests to strike before then. The timing of hitting the base on a Sunday, when American forces would be in harbour and at their least preparedness, was also intentional. Going by that criteria (and other factors, such as the deteriorating Japanese economy), there are only so many dates on which the attack can be launched. December 7th just happened to be the best in the minds of the IJN.
 

lothaw

Sargon said:
They knew the best time was to launch an attack early on a Sunday morning when the fleet would be least alert and the harbour relatively sleepy and free of traffic, especially important as lots of boats and smaller warships chugging about could mess up torpedo runs on the big boys...that appears to be part of the thinking involved if I remember my research into it.


Sargon

A Timeline of mine: The Roman Emperor Who Lost His Nose
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That's exactly it. Some US strategists believed Japan would attack on Sunday, November 30 and were censured after it didn't happen, only to be proven mostly right a year later.
 

DuQuense

Sunday Novembre 30th at the very earliest, as there where problems getting all 6 Carriers ready before that,

After Decembre you run into weather problems, and Run the Risk that someone will notice all the moving around of troops and where they are preparing. {No Patton and His Phantom Army]
 
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