Could the Incan Empire survive less the Spanish conquest?

[Fatal Wit]

Could the Incan Empire survive even if it avoided the Spanish conquest?

The Incan Empire, was also perhaps the olny Amerindian state that had a real chance of maintaining its independance in the face of Spanish Imperialism.

One of the biggest problems is, however, the Eurasian diseases. These crippled the state in our timeline, as its emperor succumbed to such diseases and the empire descended into civil war over the issue of succesion...just prior to the Spanish invasion. It is unlikely that the Spanish(or the small force they sent, at least) could have conquered the empire if it had avoided the succession crisis.

Obviously, their are several possibilities that could butterfly away the conquest of the Inca, or at least delay it(the Spanish forces being defeated, the emperor not succumbing to disease, an alternative European power colonising the America's/competing with the Spanish).

My question is this- even if the Incans avoided conquest, would their civilisation/state be able to survive the disease epidemics? How much would they reduce their population by? Did the Incans really have the stability and strength to avoid a collapse as aresult of the epidemics?

 

[Tobit]

Part of the stability of the incan state was that it made the diverse regions under its rule dependent on each other for agricultural goods that they required. But the problem is that the incan state was totally obsessed with the Incan bloodline. If the bloodline is wiped out then no more incans can continue.

However writing this makes me wonder, if the european power chooses to trade rather then conquer the balance might be even more upset. If certain regions are able to replace incan control of trade with european goods then the whole centralized system of resource distribution would be upset.

Which is interesting because this is what I am writing about for a research paper on the Kingdom of Kongo. Where the centralized king overtime lost control of resource allocation and soon lost his kingdom.

 

[Fatal Wit]

Part of the stability of the incan state was that it made the diverse regions under its rule dependent on each other for agricultural goods that they required. But the problem is that the incan state was totally obsessed with the Incan bloodline. If the bloodline is wiped out then no more incans can continue.

However writing this makes me wonder, if the european power chooses to trade rather then conquer the balance might be even more upset. If certain regions are able to replace incan control of trade with european goods then the whole centralized system of resource distribution would be upset.

Which is interesting because this is what I am writing about for a research paper on the Kingdom of Kongo. Where the centralized king overtime lost control of resource allocation and soon lost his kingdom.

I didn't know that- now the Inca seem even more awesome

In any case, while the effects of a trade relationship rather then one of conquest are interesting, that would require the empire to get over the initial speedbump of surviving the epidemics.

I'm not entirely sure whether they could.

 

[robertp6165]

The Incan Empire, was also perhaps the olny Amerindian state that had a real chance of maintaining its independance in the face of Spanish Imperialism.

One of the biggest problems is, however, the Eurasian diseases. These crippled the state in our timeline, as its emperor succumbed to such diseases and the empire descended into civil war over the issue of succesion...just prior to the Spanish invasion. It is unlikely that the Spanish(or the small force they sent, at least) could have conquered the empire if it had avoided the succession crisis.

Obviously, their are several possibilities that could butterfly away the conquest of the Inca, or at least delay it(the Spanish forces being defeated, the emperor not succumbing to disease, an alternative European power colonising the America's/competing with the Spanish).

My question is this- even if the Incans avoided conquest, would their civilisation/state be able to survive the disease epidemics? How much would they reduce their population by? Did the Incans really have the stability and strength to avoid a collapse as aresult of the epidemics?

In the final version of my The Guns of the Tawantinsuya timeline, I went with a 75% reduction of population by the European diseases in the first 30 years after contact. My reasoning for this is that a good deal of the death and destruction which went on after the Spanish conquest had nothing to do with disease...it had to do with rapacious Spaniards brutally rounding up the populations of entire villages, and marching them off to the gold and silver mines and working them all to death. Therefore the figures one often sees of "90% of the Inca population died from disease" are not accurate, because they don't take into account the destruction and death wrought by the Spaniards themselves. Estimates of the population of the Inca Empire prior to the Spanish Conquest range from 6-12 million. I went with the higher figure, so a 75% death rate still leaves 3 million...a respectable and workable population which would rebound relatively quickly after the initial impact of the diseases. Add to this that innoculation for smallpox could have been introduced as early as the 1730s through contact with the English, and they could have rebounded even faster.

 

[robertp6165]

Part of the stability of the incan state was that it made the diverse regions under its rule dependent on each other for agricultural goods that they required. But the problem is that the incan state was totally obsessed with the Incan bloodline. If the bloodline is wiped out then no more incans can continue.

Not actually true. The Inca actually had a system for integrating the best and brightest of the commoners into the Inca nobility...sort of a "nobility by exam" system. And they also were in the process of integrating the nobility of the various conquered peoples into the ruling class of the empire. The system overall was much less brittle than you evidently think it was. I think it was flexible enough to sustain the body blows wrought by the epidemics and adapt.

 

[Metro]

The Inca Empire would have collapsed with time. There was too much internal fighting. And it was politically fragmented.

The Incas were a small tribe that had conquered others.

The Aymara-speaking rivals in the region of Lake Titicaca, the Colla and Lupaca, were defeated first, and then the Chanca to the west. The latter attacked and nearly captured Cuzco. After that, there was little effective resistance. First the peoples to the north were subjugated as far as Quito, Ecuador, including the powerful and cultured kingdom of Chimú on the northern coast of Peru. Topa Inca then took over his father's role and turned southward, conquering all of northern Chile as far as the Maule River, the southernmost limit of the empire. His son, Huayna Capac, continued conquests in Ecuador to the Ancasmayo River, the present border between Ecuador and Colombia.

The Inca Empire was made up of conquered people who if they saw they had a good chance would breakaway from off the Incas.

 

[Adamanteus]

It is highly unlikely that the Inca Empire would survive in any case, because of their technological inferiority. By the time Pizarro arrived, the civil war had already drawn to a close, and the Incas presented a unified opposition to the Spaniards. They were nevertheless defeated, as they lacked many of the advantages of the Spaniards that were militarily useful, such as horses, steel weapons, and guns. Despite being vastly outnumbered and on foreign hostile soil, the Spanish easily managed to conquer the Incas.

 

[Chengar Qordath]

I certainly think Smallpox and other plagues would have left the Inca and any other Native American states shattered even without European invasion; a death toll of 75-90% causes just about a total breakdown of society and government. Even if the Emperor himself survives most of the officials who help him run the Empire are going to be dead, causing chaos and anarchy out in the provinces. The Empire might be able to eventually recover, but it is going to be a long and difficult process, and much of the Empire will likely have to be reclaimed.

For a good example of just how badly the plagues will effect the Incan Empire, consider the effects of the Black Death on Europe, then square them to account for the NA plagues doing about twice as much proportional damage to the population.

 

[M79]

Avoid the civil war that Pizzaro walked in on and the Inka have a unified front to resist the Spaniards. They keep the horses, breed them out, and develop a cavalry force worth mentioning. Remember that the Spaniards were unable to conquer the southern tip of Patagonia and Chile only annexed them largely by their own consent in the 1880s.

Assuming the Spaniards are routed and executed, you could get quite a few tribes turning to the Inka for "protection" and expanding the Empire in future years. Who knows what sorts of tech would be inspired by the introduction of European technology to the Andes in 1530? And with 60-75% dead, there are still millions to populate the Empire, and the population could rebound quickly if they are organized.

 

[Nikephoros]

Pizzaro was lucky/really freaking good. What he did ultimately can be considered one of the first/best spec ops missions.

 

[Tobit]

Not actually true. The Inca actually had a system for integrating the best and brightest of the commoners into the Inca nobility...sort of a "nobility by exam" system. And they also were in the process of integrating the nobility of the various conquered peoples into the ruling class of the empire. The system overall was much less brittle than you evidently think it was. I think it was flexible enough to sustain the body blows wrought by the epidemics and adapt.

yeah I think I remember that now that you mention it. But I also imagine that like Europe during the black plague, traditional powers would take quite a hit.

 

[Umbral]

Of all the empires encountered by the europeans, the Incas were by far the youngest. When Colombus landed, many incan citizens still alive remembered the start of the concquests.

They were still figuring out solutions to the problems of empire. I think that could have made them more able to absorb lessons from fighting/meeting the europeans, and learn and adapt.

 

[Fatal Wit]

Of all the empires encountered by the europeans, the Incas were by far the youngest. When Colombus landed, many incan citizens still alive remembered the start of the concquests.

They were still figuring out solutions to the problems of empire. I think that could have made them more able to absorb lessons from fighting/meeting the europeans, and learn and adapt.

The problem with meteroric rises is that they tend to be accompanied by meteoric falls.

 

[Taikun]

It is highly unlikely that the Inca Empire would survive in any case, because of their technological inferiority. By the time Pizarro arrived, the civil war had already drawn to a close, and the Incas presented a unified opposition to the Spaniards. They were nevertheless defeated, as they lacked many of the advantages of the Spaniards that were militarily useful, such as horses, steel weapons, and guns. Despite being vastly outnumbered and on foreign hostile soil, the Spanish easily managed to conquer the Incas.

Yes, the civil war had ended... but a much bigger problem had begun: More than half of the kingdoms previously conquered by the Incas joined the Spanish, seeing them as liberators rather than the menace they were. Even some of the "Panaka", (the Incan royal lineages) joined the Spanish because there was rivarly between these panakas. They even helped the Spanish subjugate the Colla and the southern regions when they rebelled against the Europeans. With the Inca complicated imperial system of reciprocities broken like that, there was no way they could unite against the invaders.

Archaeologists have even found graves of the battles between the incas and the spanish. Most of the injuries usually came from Andean weapons rather than Spanish. There is evidence and written records that horses and heavy armors became useless in many places, guns were inaccurate and the Incas invented ways to compensate for the technological superiority of the invaders. Many Spanish chroniclers (Like Murua and Cieza de León) tell about hundreds of Spanish invaders who died in the andes in these battles.

Moreover, more advanced armies have lost battles against "primitive" ones in more recent times, such as the first Italian invasion of Ethiopia, among others.

This is why today, most historians share the opinion that the capture of Atahualpa in Cajamarca was just the beginning. It took almost half a century to impose the Spanish order in the central Andes, and there were rebellions almost all the time, but they were too small and isolated.

 

[Taikun]

The problem with meteroric rises is that they tend to be accompanied by meteoric falls.

I totally agree. But in areas with similar cultures and traditions it's easier to unite people, even if there are rebellions from time to time. Given enough time and under different circumstances, the Incan empire could have become a more stable state in the Andes.