Personally, I think Germany would fall in autumn 1945, possibly with the western allies meeting the Soviets at the Oder rather than the Elbe.
1. If Bagration is not quite as devastating, the Heer can probably hold the Russians for a bit during Autumn 1944.
2. Allies break out of Normandy and rush to liberate France - a week later than historical, and without the 5. Panzer-armee being devastated. Mobile warfare and higher casualties for the allies and slower liberation of France is the result.
3. Allies launch Market-Garden which fails as historically and then basically stops due to low supplies.
4. Battle of Iasi is a Romanian-German victory - barely. The Soviets are stopped in Moldavia and Romania is still in the war.
5. The Germans establish the Weichsel-linie (Vistula Line), retreating from East prussia after hard and bloody battles in the region. The Kriegsmarine is helping as much as it can. The Kurland forces retreat behind the Vistula, exchausted and depletet. However, the Soviet forces facing them are equally exhausted and depleted.
6. Autumn rains turn Poland into a mudfield and stops offensive action.
7. The Soviets launch a winter offensive over the Vistula in January 1945, breaking the German defences. A strong counter-attack by armoured German forces stall the Soviet advance, however, in Moldavia, the Soviets pounch through and Romania switches sides. Germany starts retreating from the Balkans.
8. The allies punch through the German lines at Rimini in Italy, marching north.
9. In March, the Soviets attack again, reinforced by Polish conscripts, Armia Krajowa rising and the Romanian army. The Germans abandon Greece, Albania and Yugoslavia. Slovakia is lost in a pitched battle for the Dukla pass as the Slovaks rise behind the Germans.
10. The Germans establish new lines in northern Italy, Slovenia, western Slovakia and along the Oder. Their losses has been staggering and supplies and reinforcements are harder to come by, as the allied aereal bombardments turn the German infrastructure, resource extraction and industrial base to rubble.
11. The Soviets have suffered a lot too. Stalin has forces his troops onwards, but they are scraping the bottom of the manpower barrel and the huge losses Autumn 1944 hinder movement. Conscripted "liberated" and really liberated people lack discipline and training as well as moral fiber when they realise they are bing used as cannon fodder. Rape, pillage, plundering and drunkenness reduce the fighting strength of the Soviet armies further.
12. Spring mud and Soviet exhaustion put a lull in the operations during April 1945.
13. The allies launch their long built-up invasion of Germany, in May 1945, dropping paratroopers and crossing the Rhine. The Germans mostly abandon the Netherlands after destroying ports facilities and infrastructure, but extended fighting in the Ruhr area stall the allies. While the Germans buy time, their largets industrial center is turned into finer rubble than the bombers ever could.
14. The Germans surrender to the western allies, but keep up operations against the Soviets, who are launching a major offensive to break the Vistula line. The Romanian army marches into Hungary, but is stalled after taking Pest. The Soviets break into Bohemia but are counter-attacked by German armoured forces in June 1944.
15. The Soviets establish bridgeheads, but fail to punch through the Oder line completely. The German army fights on while the allies advance cautiosly with little resistance.
16. In August, discipline in the German army fails and units start abandoning the Oder line to travel west and surrender to the western allies.
17. Septembet 1945, all German forces surrender as the allies has reached the outskirts of Berlin and the Soviets have punched through the Oder line and the German forces in Bohemia face advancing Soviet forces, Czech partians rising and have no hope of reinforcement or supply.
At the war's end, the Germans still hold most of Silesia, Bohemia, Austria, the Italian alps, small parts of Slovenia (with the aid of the remnants of the Croatian army), Denmark and Norway as well as a few ports and islands in France.
