As the title indicates, could Chad possibly develop into a prosperous democracy, with the coup d'etat of 1990 being the POD? The main hurdles would probably be
• The democratic backsliding from 2005 onwards, during the rule of Idriss Deby
• The Chadian Civil War from 2005
• The ethnic distrust between the Muslim Arab-majority north and the Christian-majority south
• The Boko Haram movement
• The drying up of Lake Chad
• Being lamdlocked
• General problems faced by a post-colonial state, such as low illiteracy, massive poverty, poor human rights, and what not.
As it turns out, Chad was actually on the path of democratisation following its first democratic elections in 1996, when Idriss Deby became president. The country's future seemed to be promising, as oil exploitation had begun and international financial organisations began collaborating with it to alleviate poverty. The Chadian Civil War, however, brought all this progress to a stop. So preventing this war from ever taking place is key to ensuring Chad is on the right track. Interestingly, many of the groups that had rebelled against Idriss' government were previously allied to it, up until 2005, when Idriss held a referendum to allow himself a third term in office. The groups that supported him immediately fell out of affection for him and wanted him to step down. Idriss won the 2006 presidential election, which the opposition had boycotted, awarding him a third term. His former supporters began a full-scale rebellion. The rebellion was backed by Sudan, mainly because Idriss supported the rebels in Darfur. He belonged to the Zaghawa ethnic group, and coincidentally, most of the JEM rebels were also Zaghawa. What followed was a brutal civil war, and Idriss held onto power until his death.
I guess the first step to preventing democratic backsliding would be by preventing the 2005 referendum from happening or by making it fail (if it's rigged, a popular revolt could follow). Through this, Idriss' supporters won't turn back against him, and perhaps another non-Zaghawa politician hailing from Idriss' party (the MPS) could win the election, stalling Chad's support for the JEM in Sudan. This would prevent Sudan from attempting to destabilise Chad. Historically, Chad had alternated between the leadership of the northerners and the southerners because of the ethnic distrust brewing in the nation, and to prevent a rebellion from breaking out in the south, the government would have to somehow begin promoting ethnic harmony. Perhaps adopting a more quasi-federal system could help? Establishing an inter-ethnic board, headed by government sympathisers, to promote dialogue between groups? Some weird form of Sahelian nationalism clouding Arab nationalism in the north and pan-Africanism in the south? I have no idea. There's also the question of Lake Chad. Lake Chad's disappearance actually amplified the Boko Haram insurgency, as people are more susceptible to radicalization when they have no means of livelihood. One of the projects that were proposed to replenish the lake was the Transaqua Canal Project, which transferred water from the Ubangi and Congo to Lake Chad. However, it was rejected by the DRC, Congo, and CAR because they feared it could negatively affect energy production at the Inga dam and river transportation. However, the canal would divert less than 8% of the Congo's waters, and most of the water would be available for hydroelectricity production. Another idea I'm thinking of is perhaps exploiting the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System in northeastern Chad. It's the world's largest aquifer system and has as much freshwater as the American Great Lakes. Libya has actually managed to exploit the fossil water via the 'Great Manmade River' project. Perhaps we could use this fossil water to replenish Lake Chad, with the financial backing of international organisations and other nations belonging to the Lake Chad basin.
What are your thoughts? How could Chad develop, following this, to standards of living similar to those of, say, Iran or Tunisia? How would Chad react to the wars in Libya, CAR, and Sudan? How could Chad overcome the problems stemming from it being landlocked?
• The democratic backsliding from 2005 onwards, during the rule of Idriss Deby
• The Chadian Civil War from 2005
• The ethnic distrust between the Muslim Arab-majority north and the Christian-majority south
• The Boko Haram movement
• The drying up of Lake Chad
• Being lamdlocked
• General problems faced by a post-colonial state, such as low illiteracy, massive poverty, poor human rights, and what not.
As it turns out, Chad was actually on the path of democratisation following its first democratic elections in 1996, when Idriss Deby became president. The country's future seemed to be promising, as oil exploitation had begun and international financial organisations began collaborating with it to alleviate poverty. The Chadian Civil War, however, brought all this progress to a stop. So preventing this war from ever taking place is key to ensuring Chad is on the right track. Interestingly, many of the groups that had rebelled against Idriss' government were previously allied to it, up until 2005, when Idriss held a referendum to allow himself a third term in office. The groups that supported him immediately fell out of affection for him and wanted him to step down. Idriss won the 2006 presidential election, which the opposition had boycotted, awarding him a third term. His former supporters began a full-scale rebellion. The rebellion was backed by Sudan, mainly because Idriss supported the rebels in Darfur. He belonged to the Zaghawa ethnic group, and coincidentally, most of the JEM rebels were also Zaghawa. What followed was a brutal civil war, and Idriss held onto power until his death.
I guess the first step to preventing democratic backsliding would be by preventing the 2005 referendum from happening or by making it fail (if it's rigged, a popular revolt could follow). Through this, Idriss' supporters won't turn back against him, and perhaps another non-Zaghawa politician hailing from Idriss' party (the MPS) could win the election, stalling Chad's support for the JEM in Sudan. This would prevent Sudan from attempting to destabilise Chad. Historically, Chad had alternated between the leadership of the northerners and the southerners because of the ethnic distrust brewing in the nation, and to prevent a rebellion from breaking out in the south, the government would have to somehow begin promoting ethnic harmony. Perhaps adopting a more quasi-federal system could help? Establishing an inter-ethnic board, headed by government sympathisers, to promote dialogue between groups? Some weird form of Sahelian nationalism clouding Arab nationalism in the north and pan-Africanism in the south? I have no idea. There's also the question of Lake Chad. Lake Chad's disappearance actually amplified the Boko Haram insurgency, as people are more susceptible to radicalization when they have no means of livelihood. One of the projects that were proposed to replenish the lake was the Transaqua Canal Project, which transferred water from the Ubangi and Congo to Lake Chad. However, it was rejected by the DRC, Congo, and CAR because they feared it could negatively affect energy production at the Inga dam and river transportation. However, the canal would divert less than 8% of the Congo's waters, and most of the water would be available for hydroelectricity production. Another idea I'm thinking of is perhaps exploiting the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System in northeastern Chad. It's the world's largest aquifer system and has as much freshwater as the American Great Lakes. Libya has actually managed to exploit the fossil water via the 'Great Manmade River' project. Perhaps we could use this fossil water to replenish Lake Chad, with the financial backing of international organisations and other nations belonging to the Lake Chad basin.
What are your thoughts? How could Chad develop, following this, to standards of living similar to those of, say, Iran or Tunisia? How would Chad react to the wars in Libya, CAR, and Sudan? How could Chad overcome the problems stemming from it being landlocked?