I can imagine "WI Bush Beat Udall" would be the main alternative history TL in Blue Skies.
Blue Skies in Camelot (Continued): An Alternate 80s and Beyond
- Thread starter President_Lincoln
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Exactly genius! Wonderful information and insight you gave us Mr. President on the previous 1976 US Presidential Election ITTL and the upcoming 1980 US Presidential Election ITTL. Kennedy-Bentsen 1980: Leadership for the Decade!
I'm waiting to see if he wins, and also if he gets shot or not.
If I read this right, the TTL American public is in the mood for a more hawkish foreign policy but still favors a Keynesian consensus of a mixed economy ?
I understand. Though not sure if a assassination is on the cards
I think another one would be: What if Rockefeller beat Kennedy?
Or what if Humphrey-Smathers beat Romney-Bush in 1968?
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Some Mini ITTL Alt-History Scenarios
Thank you so much! 😁 That is truly humbling and heartwarming to hear. Good luck with your own timeline. I'd love to hear about it when you're ready to share!
Speed round of mini-scenarios, just for fun! If somehow, Bush managed to clean up his image... Maybe avoid the affair with his staffer, maybe pull out of Cambodia earlier, maybe work really, really hard to campaign better and improve his image, he could have squeaked out a win, despite the economy. He would have probably needed to prevent Schlafly from running her primary challenge as well.
Had Bush won and served out his second term, he would have been the longest serving President in American history except FDR (almost 9 years). His second term would have (probably) been almost universally seen as ineffectual. Bush didn't have answers on the economy except "wait for things to turn around". Had Bush won, Universal Healthcare and the other achievements of Udall's term would not have happened. Democrats would have to fight for those sometime in the future. Bush had the right idea with inflation, but that's about it. His foreign policy would certainly have been stronger than Udall's, as it was more in Bush's wheelhouse. But how would Bush have handled the Iranian Revolution? Would he have ordered the CIA to get involved? Would he have had the instincts not to support the Shah? Hard to say. In all, Bush would leave office deeply unpopular, a symbol of the hard times of the 1970s. The Democrats win a landslide over Reagan in 1980.
Don't want to do any DBWI here. This would (theoretically) look a lot more like OTL, but pop culture would be different thanks to Marilyn's survival. Who knows what other butterflies she might set off all on her own?
Had President Romney survived his assassination attempt, I think he stood a decent to good chance of winning a second term. I don't want to go through the whole 13 Keys again, but he was a reasonably popular incumbent whom the public largely saw as trustworthy. People admired him for standing up to J. Edgar Hoover, who was seen as an aging bully. At the time, Cambodia had not turned unpopular yet. The economy was doing... Okay. Despite Reagan's primary challenge, I think Romney could have probably eked out a win over either LBJ or Muskie. Romney's second term would probably have not been very fun for him. As Cambodia worsened, the people would blame Romney, who advocated hard for intervention in both campaigns. The economy would worsen as stagflation hits and Democrats would kick their chops to attack Romney for not doing enough to counter the downturn. 1976 in that timeline probably sees a Democratic victory, unless they nominate a particularly weak candidate. The GOP either puts up VP Bush or Governor Reagan. Maybe Reagan could sneak past the Dems to the White House. But personally, I think the Dems win. Romney is probably remembered as a well-intentioned President whose support for civil rights and the rule of law are well remembered, but whose foreign policy is forever tainted by the involvement of Nixon and Kissinger. Romney does probably still go to China, as Bush did.
Actually the scenario I was planning on writing originally! So I have a bit of insight into my plans I can share.
Udall's decision to seek a second term is a very complicated thing. I believe, he would announce his diagnosis of Parkinson's early, so that he would not have even the appearance of trying to hide it from the public. Then, he would need to educate the public on the disease, and explain how he and his doctors feel confident that it will not affect his ability to carry out a second term.
Reagan still easily waltzes to the GOP nomination (Nixon attack ads notwithstanding). Here we have the funniest election in American history as Udall and Reagan face off in a series of witty debates. Udall points to his accomplishments in domestic policy, which Reagan tries to attack as too much big government interference. Reagan also attacks Udall on his weak spot: foreign policy.
Could Udall put out a win over Reagan? Possibly. He would have the incumbent's advantage that Kennedy lacks. But he would also have to avoid his diagnosis coming to define his campaign.
In the end, I don't want to spoil TTL's 1980. But I will leave what could have been with Mo Udall up to all of your collective imagination.
Increasingly erratic behavior driven by increased alcohol consumption and a belief in the "madman theory" of geopolitics. Bush's term sees the War on Cambodia escalate further, with bombing over Laos and North Vietnam. This disrupts the fragile peace process going on between North and South Vietnam. As a result, Vietnamese unification never happens. North and South Vietnam create a DMZ border ala Korea IOTL. Bush is accused of being a "wimp" by some for letting Nixon "run" his foreign policy.
I know that this may seem very Anti-Nixon. I recognize my bias against the man. But I think this is a reasonable possibility for where he could have ended up.
LBJ beating Bush is definitely a tough scenario. The only way I could see this happening is if Bush has some kind of MAJOR scandal (even more than his affair) or there's some kind of major disaster that Bush totally bungles between March and November 1972. As soon as President Romney was assassinated in Milwaukee, a GOP victory in November was all but certain.
But... Just to speculate. Let's say LBJ somehow, someway eeks out a win. He tries to run the clock back to the Kennedy years in terms of the economy. But before he can do much in office, he passed away from a heart attack within his first year. He is succeeded by John Glenn, his Vice President. Glenn, the "Astronaut President" does his best to steady things. The American people grieve losing two Presidents in as many years due to unforeseen tragedy. Glenn governs as a middle of the road, moderate Democrat, and does okay. He doesn't exactly set the world on fire. He's unpopular with the party's progressive base and not very charismatic. But if he plays his cards right and winds down involvement in Cambodia, if Glenn can survive stagflation, he might win a term of his own in 1976, probably over Governor Reagan.
An even more unlikely scenario... But let's give it a try.
JFK's affairs, the true state of his health/Addison's disease, and numerous other scandals rock his administration just before the election. Rockefeller manages to win a narrow victory. Margaret Chase Smith becomes the first female Vice President in 1965, a major step forward for feminism. Rockefeller's term is a more centrist version of Kennedy's second here. He supports watered down versions of the New Frontier and does support Civil Rights. Rockefeller pursues a more aggressive foreign policy, escalating the Vietnam War. This leads to Rockefeller becoming quite unpopular, especially with young, anti-war folks. Rockefeller probably manages to win reelection in 68, possibly over LBJ or Hubert Humphrey. But his second term is severely bogged down by Vietnam. His administration does shift the GOP to the left on social issues while Kennedy's loss empowers the more conservative wing of the Democratic party. Make of that what you will.
Hubert Humphrey was the Democratic nominee in 1968. Smathers was Humphrey's running mate. If Humphrey had managed to win another state or two, he could have won the White House. His time in office would have seen a continuation of Kennedy-era economic and foreign policy. Humphrey's emphasis would have been on passing full employment acts and securing rights for unions. I think Humphrey probably would have done a pretty good job. He would have faced severe inflation, but barring something major, I think he could have survived 1972 and won a second term (probably over Reagan or possibly Bush). He would be facing some pretty severe party fatigue though. His second term again would have been pretty rough. 1973 - 1977 was just sort of bound to be a bad time. Humphrey is definitely succeeded in 1976 by a Republican. The GOP is relieved to win back power after 16 years in the wilderness.
Right, my mistake. Thought the ticket was reversed (Smathers-Humphrey).
AeroTheZealousOne
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Should probably bring up that today marks 60 years since the assassination of President John Kennedy, so I'll do that here.
Rest in Peace to President Kennedy. One of the two great inspirations behind this timeline, I truly admire the man, flawed though he surely was. I believe one cannot help but imagine, as I have, how the world would have been different had that tragic day in Dallas sixty years ago never occurred.