Atomic bomb ready for use before German capitulation: Matters of target selection

[Color-Copycat]

Assume the Manhattan Project's pace of work is accelerated and they have the bomb ready for overseas deployment by early/mid April of 1945. Maybe Allies get stalled on the Rhine and OKH was allowed to pursue a more flexible defense in the East so encircled units are allowed to break out and manpower isn't wasted trying to hold useless "cauldrons" like Courland peninsula and East Prussian "fortress cities". So for the purpose of the thought experiment, the Allies have only gotten as far east as the Rhine and as far west as the Oder/Neisse.

That leaves many potential targets for the atomic bomb, though almost all, of course in varying states of destruction after years of RAF and USAAF conventional strategic bombing. Which cities would the US prioritize if they had two bombs ready for use?

Would the various Allies be opposed to the targeting of cities within their future zones of occupation? I imagine the Soviets in particular would be loathe to see their future war reparations in the form of industrial works be destroyed by an atomic bombing. I know that at the time, the risks of radiation contamination from the atomic bomb were poorly understood, but iirc, the Soviets otherwise had very good intelligence on the destructive capabilities of the atomic bomb.

Using the bomb on Berlin might be undesirable to the Soviets on a pragmatic level simply because their own nuclear program was banking on capturing the uranium stockpile at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Physics in the Berlin suburbs in order to complete their first bomb.

what u think?

 

[MattII]

If we still get a Battle of the Bulge then there's no point in using it in Europe, because the Germans can offer little resistance.

 

[Das_Colonel]

Dropping it east on a target in the path of the Soviet drive might slow down their capture of Berlin but might lead to more aggressive gains by the Soviets in Asia as payback. That's a pretty unlikely scenario though, for multiple reasons.

Also my understanding is that the bombing-up pits for Silverplate were quite complicated? Although the UK might be in a better position infrastructure wise than the middle of the Pacific.

 

[Color-Copycat]

I thought board consensus was that if the atomic bomb was ready for use before German capitulation, it would have been used first in Germany rather than Japan.

 

[HonestAbe]

Were there even enough targets? I mean, you can always bomb a ruin but the impact will be lessened. Though I suppose it's possible in the case of Germany the generals could win out and get the bombs used tactically.

 

[Yuelang]

*cough* MOSCOW *cough* KIEV *cough* LENINGARD *cough*

(insert Churchill here)

Seriously, with atom bomb available when Churchill still wartime PM, we could bet in 50% chance that the operation "UNTHINKABLE" will happen...

 

[HonestAbe]

Except Churchill doesn't get to pick targets, FDR does. Which is another thing, does anyone have any insight on FDR's thoughts vis a vis the bomb?

 

[PsihoKekec]

Berlin, despite being ruined, is a certain target due to it's symbolic value.

 

[Readman]

Actually, from what I'm understood is one of the reasons the Manhattan Project was worked on so feverishly is it was thought at the time the Germans also had a nuclear project, and that it might be as far or even farther advanced as the MP....Obviously we know now that was far from the Case...but they didn't know that then, so... I would expect some kind of similar demand/ultimatum made to Germany as was made to Japan--look, we have this weapons, it's real super powerful and if you don't give up we're using it--cue Goebbels and the rote the Jewish-Bolshevik Imperialists liars etc etc--I would expect *not* Berlin for reasons of history and wanting and Intact capital much in the way Tokyo/Kyoto were off the Target List. Nuremburg, perhaps? Munich Probably somewhere Central. my German geography is pretty minimal. maybe Schwienfurt or Regensburg--the Mighty 8th would have no trouble finding volunteers for *that* Run. Maybe a German Port, like Kiel or Wilelmshaven to demo U-boat pens. I dunno. thats what I got.

 

[Deimos]

Berlin, despite being ruined, is a certain target due to it's symbolic value.

Which is why the Americans dropped the bomb on Kyoto or Tokyo IOTL?

The target study for deploying the atomic bomb was heavily in favour of bombing a more rural/industrial area than a big city in order to leave more people alive with the intellectual capacity to see that this new weapon can win the war alone.
Additionally, if you plan for your weapon to quickly end the war, then decapitating the enemy leadership might actually not be that beneficial for negotiating a quick surrender.

Brunswick as the site where Hitler acquired his citizenship might work similarly to Nuremburg.

 

[aktarian]

Unlikely to be used. If (W)Allies are seen as winning and German defeat is matter of months at best then I don't think it will be used.

That is if Soviets are on the roll and Wallies closing in on Germany after clearing France.

 

[Color-Copycat]

I'm thinking the Americans might try to target a city in the south. Since the Americans were so convinced of the existence of the Bavarian Redoubt, maybe they would think that it would be a big psychological blow to the German leadership to hit a southern city.

 

[pdf27]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the obvious target - Dresden. That was mid-February 1945 in OTL, had previously barely been bombed and was coming up as a valuable target because it's rail lines were considered important to the Germans resisting the Soviet advance. I could easily see the raid being delayed 6 weeks if an atomic bomb would very soon be available.

More generally, I think the logic will follow Bomber Command's targeting priorities rather than 8th Air Force's - the British were nominally in the business of burning down concentrated areas, the Americans nominally in the business of blowing up small targets. It didn't work like that of course - by that time the British were often more accurate by night than the Americans by day, thanks to the European winter - but that's how the targeting logic will run IMHO.

 

[Color-Copycat]

The target study for deploying the atomic bomb was heavily in favour of bombing a more rural/industrial area than a big city in order to leave more people alive with the intellectual capacity to see that this new weapon can win the war alone.

Along those lines, wasn't a relatively intact target preferred so that good data could be collected afterwards on the effect of the bomb? It may not be a top criteria considering the state of German urban areas by this stage of the war, with RAF Bomber Command running out of targets and even heavily bombing agricultural towns with minimal value to the German military-industrial complex.

 

[Tom Colton]

Nuremberg gets instant sunshine, being an important production site and representing a massive propaganda blow.

But where would they hold the war crimes trials then?

 

[Color-Copycat]

Maybe Munich. Symbolism isn't as strong, but Beer Hall Putsch and all that.

 

[CDurham]

Were there even enough targets? I mean, you can always bomb a ruin but the impact will be lessened. Though I suppose it's possible in the case of Germany the generals could win out and get the bombs used tactically.

I've heard rumors that one of the original plans for the use of the atomic bomb was to clear the beach just before amphibious forces went ashore in Japan so as to prevent something like Omaha, due to lack of knowledge that it wasn't "just a little radiation" (like say, an X-rays worth) in the area afterward.

The idea of them dropping the bomb on an enemy formation just before sending in the infantry seems terrible today but at the time, ignorance is bliss until you start having the VA make a lot of payments to cancer doctors a few years or decades down the line

 

[usertron2020]

Actually, from what I'm understood is one of the reasons the Manhattan Project was worked on so feverishly is it was thought at the time the Germans also had a nuclear project, and that it might be as far or even farther advanced as the MP....Obviously we know now that was far from the Case...but they didn't know that then, so... I would expect some kind of similar demand/ultimatum made to Germany as was made to Japan--look, we have this weapons, it's real super powerful and if you don't give up we're using it--cue Goebbels and the rote the Jewish-Bolshevik Imperialists liars etc etc--I would expect *not* Berlin for reasons of history and wanting and Intact capital much in the way Tokyo/Kyoto were off the Target List. Nuremburg, perhaps? Munich Probably somewhere Central. my German geography is pretty minimal. maybe Schwienfurt or Regensburg--the Mighty 8th would have no trouble finding volunteers for *that* Run. Maybe a German Port, like Kiel or Wilelmshaven to demo U-boat pens. I dunno. thats what I got.

Would the Mighty 8th have the B-29, or would Tibbet's composite group be operating independently. For any number of anti-American trolls (including the far left and behind the Iron Curtain), it was Holy Writ that the USA would never nuke White People, only Asiatics. Conveniently ignoring that Tibbet's outfit was a COMPOSITE group, designed for operating separating in different theaters at the same time.

No doubt if somehow the Japanese had surrendered first (ASB-level series of disasters for Japan from square one) and Germany was hit instead (1) it would be the extreme RIGHT who'd complain about America's motives for hitting the Nazis over the Japanese, regardless of when the Bomb was ready.

1) Assuming a D for disaster on D-Day, followed by disasters in Normandy on try 2, the approach across France, and again in the Ardennes, so Germany is still fighting strong in the summer of 1945?

Ninja'd for Dresden. Chelmnitz? If you WANT to cut the head off the snake without destroying Berlin, how about Berchtesgartden?(sp?) Small target, BIG gain. And everybody who lives there is a card carrying Nazi You'd have to be sure Hitler is there, though.

The thing is, by the time the bombs were ready, there'd BE no viable targets left this side of Konigsberg or maybe one of the coastal cities in the future DDR.

 

[Tom Colton]

Could such a flagrantly careless use of nukes reduce nuclear tensions in the future by highlighting why tactical nukes are such a Bad Idea(tm), albeit at the cost of a cancer-stricken Greatest Generation?

 

[Color-Copycat]

In terms of the soldiers' health, they did come up with NBC protection for a reason, and I can't see why either side would give up such a formidable asset on the Cold War battlefield. Both sides' doctrine depended on the use of tactical nuclear devices to offset the Soviets' lack of air superiority and NATO's lack of numerical superiority.