Alternate History/Map Challenge

unsunghero

Okay, so it is 1939 and the Germans are frisky. They have been able to repudiate most of Versailles and get rid of the reparations; they have been building up their forces for the last six years and the NAZIs are itching to get some lebensraum. So, where will they strike first? Their former allies, the 'clerical, defeatist' Austrians, or the Poles, whom the Germans are 'destined' to rule? Or perhaps someone else? You get to decide, and come up with a sketch of a timeline (if you want :) )

Note: Kaiser Karl died in 1929, so his son Otto is on the throne: Austria is a federated monarchy. The White forces (with foreign arms and capital) defeated the Communists in Russia, and although the military is weak they are experiencing a large increase in urbanization and industrialization. Poland, Britain, and France are the same: Italy is allied to Austria (now that the Italians have all the irridenta lands, they get on quite well with Vienna, and the Austrians are realistic enough to realize the chances of getting it back is nil). There was an Austrian volunteer regiment that assisted the Italians in subduing Ethiopia. Relations between Belgrade and Vienna are cool but better than before the last war.

1937euro.gif
 

perdedor99

The Germans have to be insane to start a war. Unlike OTL, they don't have the 1938 union with Austria or the annexation of Bohemia and Moravia. No extra troops or the resources of Austria or the tanks that actually were the bulk of three panzer divisions are now being produced in the Austro-Hungarian factories in Skoda. They attack Poland and the French and British will declare war. With less Panzer divisions the war could turn into a more conventional one. maybe Poland resist until help from France and Great Britain arrives.

An invasion of Austria-Hungary will be a bloody affair and no clear victory. Depends of how stable the nationalities are at this time.
 

Wendell

perdedor99 said:
The Germans have to be insane to start a war. Unlike OTL, they don't have the 1938 union with Austria or the annexation of Bohemia and Moravia. No extra troops or the resources of Austria or the tanks that actually were the bulk of three panzer divisions are now being produced in the Austro-Hungarian factories in Skoda. They attack Poland and the French and British will declare war. With less Panzer divisions the war could turn into a more conventional one. maybe Poland resist until help from France and Great Britain arrives.

An invasion of Austria-Hungary will be a bloody affair and no clear victory. Depends of how stable the nationalities are at this time.
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I completely concur. What does Asia look like in TTL?
 

eschaton

With the existence of an Austria which still has lots of germans in Bohemia, and scattered through Hungary, Transylvania, and other places, it's going to be kind of hard for Germany to use nationalist rhetoric as in OTL about the uniting of all Germans. Assuming this is a nazi ATL, I don't see a single ally they would have in Europe.

Of course, a white Russia next to Poland makes things quite different. Tsarist Russia could easilly remain allied to France and Britain from the start, and if so, it might make their protections on Poland much weaker. Poland might fall into the Austrian alliance instead.

Germany could still win, I believe, against the French, and that is the direction I see them going, though I think the Vichey government woould control almost all of France.
 

unsunghero

Asia is still pretty much as it was in OTL; on the other hand, Japan is trying to wrap up the war in China and turn her attention to the weak Russian far east.

As for Austria, I had a few ideas about that: 1) if Hitler is der Fuher in this timeline, and I imagine he still would be, he would want German Austria to be absorbed into the Reich, as in our timeline. He hated the Habsburgs because he felt the Slavs and Magyars polluted the German heritage, so I undoubtedly there would be some kind of 'Greater - Germany,' fascist movement. No doubt outlawed by the government, but still popular in the Sudeten and w/ some of the German Austrians. The other potent force for the NAZIs to play with is Hungarian fascism - which would no doubt be advocating the 1914 Hungarian borders, etc, etc.

For the political leadership, I envision that things would pretty much follow our timeline w/the Reichsrat - suspended due to the fascists, and rule by the emergency decree clause in the Constitution. Julius Arigi was a popular war time aviation figure in Austria, loved by the Monarchy and the people, so I'd say by 1936 he accepts nomination as Chancellor. The Army is of a pretty good quality, having undergone numerous improvements in training and equipment (tanks, etc.); Most of the leadership is loyal to the Empire and Otto, but there is still some factionalism which paralyzes it to a certain degree. So long as the Army stays alert and sharp at the border w/Germany, I'd say they stand a good chance of blunting an invasion. I doubt Britain or France would fight for Austria, though. France would use the opportunity to get its 'Petite Entente' going, and while Britain was friendly w/Vienna, I can't see them doing much more than issuing a strongly worded diplomatic note. Italy might jump in and help Austria, since as I already suggested, Italy and Austria are good friends, and the Austrians helped the Italians w/Ethiopia.

Oh yeah, and regarding the internal division of Austria: (German) Austria, Bohemia, Hungary (autonomous Slovakia and Transylvania), and Croatia (and Bosnia). The scattered German enclaves have special priveleges.
 
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unsunghero

Here are two ideas, you choose which you one you like better:

1.) Austria backs France and Britain - after Poland got on her feet in the 1920s, they provided a convenient market for Austrian goods, and the good relationship between Vienna and Warsaw led to a mutual defence treaty in 1928. After Germany declares war on Poland, Austria informs the Germans that she will honour her treaty obligations, and declares war on Germany, in concert with France and Britain.

2.) Austria sides with Germany - Although the Empire survived WWI and made the necessary evolutionary change to a federated state, all was not well in Austria. The Depression had revived tensions between the Germans and Magyars, who resented losing their privileged position in the Empire and seethed with hatred at the perceived humiliation of having lost part of their Crown lands in the peace settlement at Versailles in 1919. Kaiser Otto decided that the Empire needed a short, victorious war to help ease tensions within his realm, but how would he go about it? After Hitler secretly offered to partition Poland with Austria, and support to get Bosnia back from Serbia, Austria signed a 'pact of steel' with Germany. Thus, in 1939, when Germany attacked Poland from the west, Austrian army units advanced from the south...
 

Hierophant

i think with an independent Ukraine and Poland, Russia (Communist, Democratic, or Tsarist) is the obvious ally of Nazi Germany. Hitler did it OTL and he might stomach it better with them not being commies.

So Germany will enter the war weaker due to no Austria or Bohemia/Moravia, but it will have Russia on its side.

So I basically see Germany invading Poland in 1939 as per OTL. The French and British back them up. Russia joins the Germans days later. Between the Germans and the Russians, Poland and the Ukraine fall in 4-5 months or less.

The Japanese enter the war on the side of the Allies, albiet an uneasy partner. While Russia absorbs its new western territories it fights in the east with the Japanese over Siberia, Manchuria and eventually China (in support of the Nationalists most likely). Germany blitzs through the French, not as quickly as OTL, but just as effectively.

In Spring of 1941 the ironically named Operation Barbarossa goes ahead, and Germany invades the Austrian Empire. The British attempt to help the Austrians through the Balkans fail. Serbia enters into an Alliance with Germany and the two divide the Empire up, with a newly created Hungarian Republic.

Sound right at all?
 

htgriffin

Justin Green said:
i think with an independent Ukraine and Poland, Russia (Communist, Democratic, or Tsarist) is the obvious ally of Nazi Germany. Hitler did it OTL and he might stomach it better with them not being commies.

So Germany will enter the war weaker due to no Austria or Bohemia/Moravia, but it will have Russia on its side.

So I basically see Germany invading Poland in 1939 as per OTL. The French and British back them up. Russia joins the Germans days later. Between the Germans and the Russians, Poland and the Ukraine fall in 4-5 months or less.

The Japanese enter the war on the side of the Allies, albiet an uneasy partner. While Russia absorbs its new western territories it fights in the east with the Japanese over Siberia, Manchuria and eventually China (in support of the Nationalists most likely). Germany blitzs through the French, not as quickly as OTL, but just as effectively.

In Spring of 1941 the ironically named Operation Barbarossa goes ahead, and Germany invades the Austrian Empire. The British attempt to help the Austrians through the Balkans fail. Serbia enters into an Alliance with Germany and the two divide the Empire up, with a newly created Hungarian Republic.

Sound right at all?
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Not really. Anyone resembling OTL Hitler would turn on the subhumans in the east, including any allies that are not totally under German control, as soon or sooner than remotely practical.

My take: Germany is surrounded by either Ideological enemies (overly cosmopolitan A-H), Racial Enemies (Slavic Poland), and just plain Political Enemies (France). However Hitler is a gambler, the Ukraine has some irredendia in Poland, and Vienna in distracted by calls to intervine in Serbian nastiness.

In Short, Germany, the Ukraine, Spain (Franco is less canny here), and perhaps Italy against Poland, A-H, and France (Russia is too mired in anarchic warlordism to be more than a victim).

If it blows up in the aggressor's face, Germany as we know it gets explicitly dismembered into the Confederation of 1815 and Vienna may snap up the Rhein-Ruhr.

HTG
 

unsunghero

True, in this timeline Germany doesn't seem to have much in the way of friends. I doubt Austria would view the NAZIs as anything more than hoodlums, and Hitler would have viewed them as diluting the purity of German blood, anyway. Certainly no love lost in that relationship. However, I would say that their best bet would be to swing a pact with Russia, dividing up the Baltics. If Germany were forced to, I think they could build up their panzer divisions and army based on what they have prior to the OTL anschluss and division of Czechoslovakia. If Britain and France go to war over Poland, I suspect that the Germans could still win following the strategy which in otl worked so well for them. Italy would side w/Austria, but how useful they are as allies depends on whether or not Mussolini has let the military atrophy as he did otl.
 

Hierophant

htgriffin said:
Not really. Anyone resembling OTL Hitler would turn on the subhumans in the east, including any allies that are not totally under German control, as soon or sooner than remotely practical.

My take: Germany is surrounded by either Ideological enemies (overly cosmopolitan A-H), Racial Enemies (Slavic Poland), and just plain Political Enemies (France). However Hitler is a gambler, the Ukraine has some irredendia in Poland, and Vienna in distracted by calls to intervine in Serbian nastiness.

In Short, Germany, the Ukraine, Spain (Franco is less canny here), and perhaps Italy against Poland, A-H, and France (Russia is too mired in anarchic warlordism to be more than a victim).

If it blows up in the aggressor's face, Germany as we know it gets explicitly dismembered into the Confederation of 1815 and Vienna may snap up the Rhein-Ruhr.

HTG
Click to expand...

But Hitler can save his war with Russia for after the west is defeated, like he planned in OTL. In this Tl the Germans would spend a longer time conquering europe, as they will have to subdue most of the Balkans and a competant Austria by themselves. I think they Would have most of the continent subdued by the summer of '42, maybe early '43 if the French and Austrians do a decent defense.

Italy could go either way, though I think Hitler might be able to bribe Mussolinni with the rest of Dalmatia and Savoy. Of Course the Allies could promise Dalmatia and a large chunk of Serbian Kingdom, including Albania.
 
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