AHC/WI The Russian SFSR fragmented with the USSR in the 1980s/90s?

[Remitonov]

Admittedly, most of the autonomous republics which now form the republics of the Russian Federation are too Russified or too economically tied to Moscow to consider actual secession, barring Chechnya. But is it possible for the Russian SFSR to fragment during the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Which regions would be the most likely candidates (again, besides Chechnya, because they did try to secede in OTL, with some success for a few years). And if attempted, how could a successful secession be pulled off?

Crazy difficult against the hordes of the Red Army, I'm sure, which is why I put it as an AHC too. I'd prefer for a POD somewhere during the Gorby era, but earlier PODs can do too.

 

[Lapsed Pacifist]

I've heard it said that all of the regions that could have possibly seceded from Russia already did. Most of the republics that aren't inherently 'Russian' (like Tatarstan) are usually landlocked, and would become economically dependent on Russia, or are majority Russian themselves (like Karelia), so independence would never happen.

You could try making a case for Siberia, or probably just the Far-Eastern Republic going independent, but they're mostly Russian and have next to nothing to gain by separating from Moscow.

Chechnya is one of the most likely options, as you've actually had a war for independence being fought there, but it's only about the size of London and about as economically viable as a paper submarine.

Tuva is another contender, as it was de-facto independent from the USSR until 1944, and has a distinct identity from the rest of Russia.

Edit: Also Kaliningrad maybe? Though that would require a POD that butterflies the mass deportation of Germans away.

 

[Remitonov]

I've heard it said that all of the regions that could have possibly seceded from Russia already did. Most of the republics that aren't inherently 'Russian' (like Tatarstan) are usually landlocked, and would become economically dependent on Russia, or are majority Russian themselves (like Karelia), so independence would never happen.

You could try making a case for Siberia, or probably just the Far-Eastern Republic going independent, but they're mostly Russian and have next to nothing to gain by separating from Moscow.

Chechnya is one of the most likely options, as you've actually had a war for independence being fought there, but it's only about the size of London and about as economically viable as a paper submarine.

Tuva is another contender, as it was de-facto independent from the USSR until 1944, and has a distinct identity from the rest of Russia.

Edit: Also Kaliningrad maybe? Though that would require a POD that butterflies the mass deportation of Germans away.

I don't think there's really much to prevent a mass deportation of Germans from East Prussia. Even with an absolutely worse performance by the Soviets which sees them bogged down in home turf and the WAllies liberating Poland, it's quite likely Poland will get East Prussia almost whole.

But yeah, there aren't many regions that can and are willing to break off. Tuva may be exceedingly remote enough to achieve this, but its economy is pretty dependent on Russia anyway. Russification as a whole would have to go early (possibly with indigenization policies enduring past the 1930s), but it's rather hard for the Soviet government to justify against it.

 

[euromellows]

I've heard it said that all of the regions that could have possibly seceded from Russia already did. Most of the republics that aren't inherently 'Russian' (like Tatarstan) are usually landlocked, and would become economically dependent on Russia, or are majority Russian themselves (like Karelia), so independence would never happen.

You could try making a case for Siberia, or probably just the Far-Eastern Republic going independent, but they're mostly Russian and have next to nothing to gain by separating from Moscow.

Chechnya is one of the most likely options, as you've actually had a war for independence being fought there, but it's only about the size of London and about as economically viable as a paper submarine.

Tuva is another contender, as it was de-facto independent from the USSR until 1944, and has a distinct identity from the rest of Russia.

Edit: Also Kaliningrad maybe? Though that would require a POD that butterflies the mass deportation of Germans away.

I like the idea of Kaliningrad! You're right that it will need a POD from at least from 1945 though.

 

[Remitonov]

I like the idea of Kaliningrad! You're right that it will need a POD from at least from 1945 though.

Hmm... Now that I think of it, carving it as a separate SSR/ASSR might work, perhaps? Even now, despite the population being almost entirely Russian or Russified, they seem to maintain quite a separate identity (being able to work and send kids across to the EU around them would have such an effect). They even insist on using names that referred to its Prussian past (e.g. Kyonigsburg, Kantgrad, after Emmanuel Kant) Would using it as a 'dumping ground' for Volga Germans work?

 

[SlideAway]

A big issue is that the republics were constitutionally-speaking, sovereign entities. On paper, the USSR was actually a loose confederation, and its constitution gave each republic a unilateral right to secede.

Under international law and contemporary practice, it's rare for other countries or international institutions to recognize a new state unless its secession is legally permitted (internally) or if the existing state consents. This was not an issue with the SSRs. It would be with the ASSRs, since they were subordinate to the republics. Chechnya, for example, functionally won its independence for a few years after the first Chechan war, but because Russia never formally recognized it (among other reasons), it never won diplomatic recognition and never was consolidated as a true independent state.

Now, maybe you could have had some of the existing ASSRs upgraded to full republics as part of perestroika, so that, say, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Tuva, and Sakha (Yakutia) are recognized as full SSRs and then also declare independence when the union collapses.

 

[Remitonov]

A big issue is that the republics were constitutionally-speaking, sovereign entities. On paper, the USSR was actually a loose confederation, and its constitution gave each republic a unilateral right to secede.

Under international law and contemporary practice, it's rare for other countries or international institutions to recognize a new state unless its secession is legally permitted (internally) or if the existing state consents. This was not an issue with the SSRs. It would be with the ASSRs, since they were subordinate to the republics. Chechnya, for example, functionally won its independence for a few years after the first Chechan war, but because Russia never formally recognized it (among other reasons), it never won diplomatic recognition and never was consolidated as a true independent state.

Now, maybe you could have had some of the existing ASSRs upgraded to full republics as part of perestroika, so that, say, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Tuva, and Sakha (Yakutia) are recognized as full SSRs and then also declare independence when the union collapses.

I think that kind of nails it. Granted, I suspect that the vast majority of the new SSRs would likely just fold back to the RF depending on if their geographic and economic situation, but it would see slight splintering at its periphery. How much Yeltsin would clamp down on this is a bit hard to say. He probably won't go out of his way to attack a place as isolated as Tuva, but he might react to Chechnya similarly to OTL (barring the Chechens doing something as crazy as invade Dagestan like OTL...)

Now I feel like writing a TL for an independent East Prussia/Kalilingrad Oblast... Wish I have the time, though. :/

 

[garabik]

Hmm... Now that I think of it, carving it as a separate SSR/ASSR might work, perhaps? Even now, despite the population being almost entirely Russian or Russified, they seem to maintain quite a separate identity (being able to work and send kids across to the EU around them would have such an effect). They even insist on using names that referred to its Prussian past (e.g. Kyonigsburg, Kantgrad, after Emmanuel Kant) Would using it as a 'dumping ground' for Volga Germans work?

Or making Kaliningrad into All-Union administered region (Всесоюзная область), not a part of any republic -- "federal territory" in modern terms. This is not fat-fetched, OTL it was (is) mostly military region anyway.

Then, when Yeltsin hastily deconstructs USSR, Kaliningrad is forgotten, at least de iure. Many possibilities open, from an independent country with strong EU ties to an independent country with strong Russia ties, to rump USSR not recognising the authority of other republics, Taiwan-like style.

 

[Remitonov]

Or making Kaliningrad into All-Union administered region (Всесоюзная область), not a part of any republic -- "federal territory" in modern terms. This is not fat-fetched, OTL it was (is) mostly military region anyway.

Then, when Yeltsin hastily deconstructs USSR, Kaliningrad is forgotten, at least de iure. Many possibilities open, from an independent country with strong EU ties to an independent country with strong Russia ties, to rump USSR not recognising the authority of other republics, Taiwan-like style.

Huh, never thought of that. It's certainly a 'new' territorial division that could be created. But who's likely to consider it? Stalin? Krushchev? Don't think anyone later would have cared.