AHC/WI: Full Northern Irish Integration

[vega]

The challenge is that, with a POD, of, say, 2000, have Northern Ireland be integrated into the UK proper (having a system like Wales and Scotland did before devolution, with a Northern Irish office). 1 rule is that you can't change the government (so no kicking Blair out or putting in the Tories).

What would be the effects of this? Would violence decrease in the long term?

 

[sparky42]

Not sure how that would happen, for a POD of 2000, the GFA is barely signed and still unstable and the referendums north and south aren't that old either. You'd have to have something very different to the GFA for what you want, and given the 1985 Anglo-Irish agreement which gave Dublin a voice in NI affairs that might get in the way as well.

 

[vega]

Not sure how that would happen, for a POD of 2000, the GFA is barely signed and still unstable and the referendums north and south aren't that old either. You'd have to have something very different to the GFA for what you want, and given the 1985 Anglo-Irish agreement which gave Dublin a voice in NI affairs that might get in the way as well.

So if a referendum was arranged in NI, which supported integration, it wouldn't be enough for the ROI to agree to it?

 

[sparky42]

So if a referendum was arranged in NI, which supported integration, it wouldn't be enough for the ROI to agree to it?

But that's not what was agreed as part of the GFA, basically it's status quo in terms of the relationship between NI and the UK which is what the Unionists want, while there's an agreement that if the majority ever wanted a vote on joining the Republic then that vote would happen (which is what the Republicans want). Not sure how what you are suggesting would fit in with the fact that both the Anglo-Irish Agreement and the Downing Street Declaration made it clear Dublin was to have involvement (even down to word choice, where the PM made a special point of using the language of "not having any territorial desires in NI")

Your POD of post GFA means that in the space of 2 years after some of the most concentrated diplomatic efforts in Anglo-Irish history (and when it took another decade just to get it working), the NI question is fundamentally changed. Fairly sure SF and the IRA (and all the other groups) would claim that the GFA talks was not in good faith if this happened so quickly afterwards (and thus the end of the Ceasefires), not sure what the Americans would think after their involvement in the talks.

 

[Devvy]

Forgive me if I'm made a horrendous mistake here, but isn't this pretty much the system that occurred when the Northern Irish/Ulster Parliament/Assembly was suspended? The NI Office & Secretary, and things were passed into NI Law by the British Parliament directly, which is what happened for Scotland & Scots Law? If that's correct, then if no agreement on the reinstatement of "Home Rule", then this is fulfilled.

 

[vega]

Forgive me if I'm made a horrendous mistake here, but isn't this pretty much the system that occurred when the Northern Irish/Ulster Parliament/Assembly was suspended? The NI Office & Secretary, and things were passed into NI Law by the British Parliament directly, which is what happened for Scotland & Scots Law? If that's correct, then if no agreement on the reinstatement of "Home Rule", then this is fulfilled.

It is, de-facto. But officially integrating NI, for the long term, is what I'm talking about.

The ROI wouldn't have an awful lot of power if the UK did violate the terms, though. It might look bad if people cared worldwide, but nothing would come from it other than really strained UK-ROI relations.

And, of course, possibly issues with the IRA, though that's another issue, and one that is present regardless.

 

[sparky42]

Forgive me if I'm made a horrendous mistake here, but isn't this pretty much the system that occurred when the Northern Irish/Ulster Parliament/Assembly was suspended? The NI Office & Secretary, and things were passed into NI Law by the British Parliament directly, which is what happened for Scotland & Scots Law? If that's correct, then if no agreement on the reinstatement of "Home Rule", then this is fulfilled.

If the GFA had failed the sword overhanging the Unionists is that Dublin would be involved in the direct rule, since the 85 Agreement that was what they feared.

 

[sparky42]

It is, de-facto. But officially integrating NI, for the long term, is what I'm talking about.

The ROI wouldn't have an awful lot of power if the UK did violate the terms, though. It might look bad if people cared worldwide, but nothing would come from it other than really strained UK-ROI relations.

And, of course, possibly issues with the IRA, though that's another issue, and one that is present regardless.

The UK has never had any interest in what you are trying to suggest though, certainly not post GFA. If you want something like this, something based around when Stormont was first suspended would make more sense than a 2000 point. But then again you have resistance from both sides to what you want.

 

[vega]

The UK has never had any interest in what you are trying to suggest though, certainly not post GFA. If you want something like this, something based around when Stormont was first suspended would make more sense than a 2000 point. But then again you have resistance from both sides to what you want.

Alright, then, what is the closest that NI could get to the UK with a, say, 1996 POD?

 

[black angel]

no way in 2000, and no way under Blair

maybe in the 1970s or the 1980s but both Major and Blair wanted Peace, a lot, and there's no peace with out some self rule in NI.

 

[Pangur]

The 70s had the Sunningdale agreement n the 80s had 85 agreement. The best option is after the border campaign in the 50s where the NI catholics for all intents n purposes stayed out of. If that happened civil rights for the Catholics is near enough a given which has major implicatIons

 

[sparky42]

Alright, then, what is the closest that NI could get to the UK with a, say, 1996 POD?

Not much difference, you want something significantly different to today's status, you'd have to push it back into the 80's (and even then you had members of Thatchers cabinet advising their Irish counterparts on how best to handle her in talks) or beyond that. Both Major and Blair had good relations with their counterparts and again from 93 with the Downing Street Declaration, that sets the tone for what the GFA turned out to be. By 96 both Governments are working to the same basic end game of peace, you'd need either something before that, or something like the IRA Mortar attack on Downing Street working to radically change things from the '90s onwards.

 

[Pangur]

no way in 2000, and no way under Blair

maybe in the 1970s or the 1980s but both Major and Blair wanted Peace, a lot, and there's no peace with out some self rule in NI.

Not much difference, you want something significantly different to today's status, you'd have to push it back into the 80's (and even then you had members of Thatchers cabinet advising their Irish counterparts on how best to handle her in talks) or beyond that. Both Major and Blair had good relations with their counterparts and again from 93 with the Downing Street Declaration, that sets the tone for what the GFA turned out to be. By 96 both Governments are working to the same basic end game of peace, you'd need either something before that, or something like the IRA Mortar attack on Downing Street working to radically change things from the '90s onwards.

I have heard about members of the Thatcher gov advising their Irish counterparts re how to handle her but I have found a good source to verify it, do you one?

 

[sparky42]

I have heard about members of the Thatcher gov advising their Irish counterparts re how to handle her but I have found a good source to verify it, do you one?

The 30 year papers have been released and have some details regarding it, I honestly can't remember which paper I read it in, think it was in the Irish Times, there's a good selection of bits and pieces there: http://www.irishtimes.com/search/search-7.1213540?article=true&tag_topic=State%20Papers&q=&page=0&sortOrder=newest

Here we go:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...nside-for-the-anglo-irish-agreement-1.2479760
And
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...rish-diplomats-about-british-spying-1.2479834

The Times has a pay wall after 10 articles a week so bare that in mind, but to me it certainly suggests that members of the cabinet were willing to work with their Irish counterparts (there was also a funny article of either the new Ambassador or NI secretary having to walk off a hangover from his first official engagement in Dublin but I can't find that right now)

 

[Pangur]

The 30 year papers have been released and have some details regarding it, I honestly can't remember which paper I read it in, think it was in the Irish Times, there's a good selection of bits and pieces there: http://www.irishtimes.com/search/se...topic=State Papers&q=&page=0&sortOrder=newest

Here we go:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...nside-for-the-anglo-irish-agreement-1.2479760
And
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...rish-diplomats-about-british-spying-1.2479834

The Times has a pay wall after 10 articles a week so bare that in mind, but to me it certainly suggests that members of the cabinet were willing to work with their Irish counterparts (there was also a funny article of either the new Ambassador or NI secretary having to walk off a hangover from his first official engagement in Dublin but I can't find that right now)

Thanks for that. At the time of the talks leading to the Anglo Irish agreement I did wonder about the relationship between Fitzgearld & Thatcher. It was obvious that they got along however for the life of me I could not see how two very different personalities like they had could get along

 

[viewcode]

...It is, de-facto...

And de-jure. By definition.

During that period the governance structure for NI was the same as, say, Wales. At that time NI was a patch of land being governed by a government member (the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland) via the Civil Service (the NI Office) using authority delegated to him by the Crown via the Prime Minister, within laws passed by the Parliament of the United Kingdom. That's not "de facto" or "technically ruled", that's full-on "governed". I don't think you can handwavium that away. The fact that many considered that structure illegitimate and/or felt themselves not bound by those laws does not change the fact that that was the structure and those were the laws.

 

[sparky42]

Thanks for that. At the time of the talks leading to the Anglo Irish agreement I did wonder about the relationship between Fitzgearld & Thatcher. It was obvious that they got along however for the life of me I could not see how two very different personalities like they had could get along

Well he did have the distinction of not being Charlie, that had to be a bonus?

 

[Pangur]

Well he did have the distinction of not being Charlie, that had to be a bonus?

Now that's a given