How could the Soviet Union and Russian Federation be prevented from obtaining nuclear weaponry, while the United States and United Kingdom still possessed them? How would the Cold War be different if the Soviet Union did not have nuclear weapons? (Obviously no Cuban Missile Crisis). If the Soviet Union never obtained nuclear weapons, then would the People's Republic of China never have obtained them either? How about India and Pakistan?
AHC: Prevent the Soviet Union and Russian Federation from Obtaining Nuclear Weapons
- Thread starter Montgomerie Ward
- Start date
Short answer: you can't
Long answer: in any circumstances in which the USSR has population or economy the size of e.g. the UK's, it WILL develop nuclear weapons. Unless, conceivably the US enforces their monopoly.
So. The only real way to do this is an AANW type scenario where the USSR is a tiny, drained rump of a nation - or totally destroyed.
There is no German uprising, Beria manages to cling to power with Marshal Aid money and the gradual liberalizing of the economy which delays but does not prevent a civil war between Stalinists and Beria's forces. That at least gets us to the Sixties. Have the civil war get REALLY ugly with the Baltics and Ukraine breaking free, casualties into the millions with famine and disease, and possibly Mao eyeing all of the USSR east of the Urals (traitors that the Russians are to the Revolution) and then we have a broken rump Russia too busy struggling to rebuild.
Cook
Banned
I assume pre-emptive nuclear attack by the United States isn't the answer you are looking for? Because that's the only possible answer.
Actually,the occasion which Beria had to seize power,after the death of Stalin,was after the Soviet Union actually developed the atomic bomb,in 1949.However,you could postpone that by a few years if you don't allow the USSR to have spies within the Manhattan Project.
It's not all that difficult.
Option 1 is to have the RCW go even worse, like, Taiping Rebellion levels of worse. And considering the constant practice of prodrazvyortska by both sides and the fact that the OTL RCW is already terrible to begin with, it's not hard to achieve by prolonging it. Maybe even throw in a Russian equivalent of the Warlord Period (I mean... the RCW was already quite warlord-y, but more than that).
Option 2 is a Soviet defeat in WW2.
Both cases leave the Soviet Union too weak to be able to produce nuclear weapons.
Option 1 is to have the RCW go even worse, like, Taiping Rebellion levels of worse. And considering the constant practice of prodrazvyortska by both sides and the fact that the OTL RCW is already terrible to begin with, it's not hard to achieve by prolonging it. Maybe even throw in a Russian equivalent of the Warlord Period (I mean... the RCW was already quite warlord-y, but more than that).
Option 2 is a Soviet defeat in WW2.
Both cases leave the Soviet Union too weak to be able to produce nuclear weapons.
The consensus seems to be that espionage accelerated the development of the Soviet a-bomb by one to two years. http://books.google.com/books?id=y9YKrRM1BowC&pg=PT332
Ezhov-led purges escalates instead of put down, resulting in executions of most leading scientists. To top it let nuclear physics to be declared "a bourgeois pseudo-science". That should delay development long enough for other butterflies to creep in without actual destruction of USSR.
Fine, throw in an additional Purge of the scientists. Stalin was unpredictable, after all.
An old soc.history.what-if post of mine (with an URL updated):
***
See the article by David Holloway in the November/December 1994 issue of
the *Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists*: "How the Bomb Saved Soviet
Physics" https://books.google.com/books?id=wAwAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA46
Holloway discusses the conflict between the Academy physicists and the
"Marxist philosophers" who got support from a group of mostly mediocre
Moscow University physicists:
"One by one members of Mandelshtam's school--Grigorii S. Landsberg, Igor
Tamm, S. E. Khaikin, and Leontovich--left the university, which was taken
over by a varied group of mediocre physicists. The group included some
serious physicists such as Dmitri Ivanenko and Aleksandr S. Predvoditelev,
but also men like V. M. Kessenikh and V. F. Nozdrev, who made up for their
lack of ability in physics with ideological vigilance. [41]
"What united the university physicists was the belief that their work had
not received the recognition they thought it deserved. They were also
annoyed that, in spite of strenuous efforts, they had not been drawn into
the atomic project. Some of them were willing to resort to political
charges to settle scores with the Academy physicists. The campaign against
cosmopolitanism provided political cover for their accusations. [42]...
"...The university physicists and their philosopher allies went on the
attack, accusing the Academy physicists of spreading cosmopolitanism and
idealism, of not citing Russian scientists, of avoiding honest arguments,
of refusing to develop fundamental physics, and of spying for Germany.
"This last charge was leveled against Mandelshtam, who had died five years
earlier. But living physicists were also criticized. Ioffe, Tamm, and
Markov, all of whom took part in the committee meetings, were severely
criticized. Iakov Frenkel was a particular target, and his 1931 position
on the irrelevance of dialectical materialism to physics was brought up
against him. The absent Kapitsa was also attacked. [43]"
https://books.google.com/books?id=wAwAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA53
Fortunately for Soviet physics, the proposed conference on physics was
never held. "It is hard to say what effect the conference might have had
on Soviet physics. The draft resolution did not condemn quantum mechanics
and relativity theory as such, so the conference might not have been as
devastating to physics as the August 1948 meeting was to biology. But it
would have strengthened the position of the Moscow university physicists
who, as a group, were narrow-minded, chauvinistic, and less able than the
Academy physicists. Physics would have been drawn further into the realm
of ideology, and disagreements and disputes would have been conducted more
frequently in the language of Stalinist politics. The role of the philosophers as
ideological policemen would have been strengthened. All this would have
created a dangerous situation for Soviet physics.
"The conference failed to take place, however, and its possible effects
must remain a matter of speculation. The last meeting of the organizing
committee took place on March 16, 1949, and the conference was due to
start on March 21. It was canceled between those two dates. Only Stalin
could have taken this decision, and it appears that he canceled the
conference because it might retard the atomic project.
"According to Gen. V.A. Makhnev, head of the secretariat of the Special
Committee on the Atomic Bomb, Beria asked Kurchatov whether it was true
that quantum mechanics and relativity theory were idealist, in the sense
of antimaterialist. Kurchatov replied that if relativity theory and
quantum mechanics were rejected, the bomb would have to be rejected too.
Beria was worried by this reply, and may have asked Stalin to call off the
conference. [45]
"A more circumstantial account, which does not contradict Makhnev's story,
was given by Artsimovich, on the basis of a conversation with Beria after
Stalin's death. According to Artsimovich, three leading physicists--
Kurchatov may have been among them--approached Beria in mid-March 1949 and
asked him to call off the conference on the grounds that it would harm
Soviet physics and interfere with the atomic project. Beria replied that
he could not make a decision on this himself, but that he would speak to
Stalin. Stalin agreed to cancel the conference, saying of the physicists,
according to Beria, 'Leave them in peace. We can always shoot them
later.'...
***
See the article by David Holloway in the November/December 1994 issue of
the *Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists*: "How the Bomb Saved Soviet
Physics" https://books.google.com/books?id=wAwAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA46
Holloway discusses the conflict between the Academy physicists and the
"Marxist philosophers" who got support from a group of mostly mediocre
Moscow University physicists:
"One by one members of Mandelshtam's school--Grigorii S. Landsberg, Igor
Tamm, S. E. Khaikin, and Leontovich--left the university, which was taken
over by a varied group of mediocre physicists. The group included some
serious physicists such as Dmitri Ivanenko and Aleksandr S. Predvoditelev,
but also men like V. M. Kessenikh and V. F. Nozdrev, who made up for their
lack of ability in physics with ideological vigilance. [41]
"What united the university physicists was the belief that their work had
not received the recognition they thought it deserved. They were also
annoyed that, in spite of strenuous efforts, they had not been drawn into
the atomic project. Some of them were willing to resort to political
charges to settle scores with the Academy physicists. The campaign against
cosmopolitanism provided political cover for their accusations. [42]...
"...The university physicists and their philosopher allies went on the
attack, accusing the Academy physicists of spreading cosmopolitanism and
idealism, of not citing Russian scientists, of avoiding honest arguments,
of refusing to develop fundamental physics, and of spying for Germany.
"This last charge was leveled against Mandelshtam, who had died five years
earlier. But living physicists were also criticized. Ioffe, Tamm, and
Markov, all of whom took part in the committee meetings, were severely
criticized. Iakov Frenkel was a particular target, and his 1931 position
on the irrelevance of dialectical materialism to physics was brought up
against him. The absent Kapitsa was also attacked. [43]"
https://books.google.com/books?id=wAwAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA53
Fortunately for Soviet physics, the proposed conference on physics was
never held. "It is hard to say what effect the conference might have had
on Soviet physics. The draft resolution did not condemn quantum mechanics
and relativity theory as such, so the conference might not have been as
devastating to physics as the August 1948 meeting was to biology. But it
would have strengthened the position of the Moscow university physicists
who, as a group, were narrow-minded, chauvinistic, and less able than the
Academy physicists. Physics would have been drawn further into the realm
of ideology, and disagreements and disputes would have been conducted more
frequently in the language of Stalinist politics. The role of the philosophers as
ideological policemen would have been strengthened. All this would have
created a dangerous situation for Soviet physics.
"The conference failed to take place, however, and its possible effects
must remain a matter of speculation. The last meeting of the organizing
committee took place on March 16, 1949, and the conference was due to
start on March 21. It was canceled between those two dates. Only Stalin
could have taken this decision, and it appears that he canceled the
conference because it might retard the atomic project.
"According to Gen. V.A. Makhnev, head of the secretariat of the Special
Committee on the Atomic Bomb, Beria asked Kurchatov whether it was true
that quantum mechanics and relativity theory were idealist, in the sense
of antimaterialist. Kurchatov replied that if relativity theory and
quantum mechanics were rejected, the bomb would have to be rejected too.
Beria was worried by this reply, and may have asked Stalin to call off the
conference. [45]
"A more circumstantial account, which does not contradict Makhnev's story,
was given by Artsimovich, on the basis of a conversation with Beria after
Stalin's death. According to Artsimovich, three leading physicists--
Kurchatov may have been among them--approached Beria in mid-March 1949 and
asked him to call off the conference on the grounds that it would harm
Soviet physics and interfere with the atomic project. Beria replied that
he could not make a decision on this himself, but that he would speak to
Stalin. Stalin agreed to cancel the conference, saying of the physicists,
according to Beria, 'Leave them in peace. We can always shoot them
later.'...
Even if the acquiring of the Atomix Bomb can be prevented by a scientists purge,Khruschev would not let the USSR have such a huge disadvantage in the Arms Race and would focus all of his military efforts towards obtaining the Atomic Bomb and he would most likely acquire it by 1960.I find it unlikely that nuclear phisycs could be declared a "pseudo-science",because how are Soviets leader going to explain:"The US,UK,France and China all have weapons that could turn the Russian Motherland into Hell.We shouldn't be able to fight them back,because their weapons are made through a bourgeouise,pseudo-science."
Also,the US won't be able to deny the Soviets the Atomic Bomb forever.Even a complete creakdown on Soviet spies would only postpone,not for very long as I said,the Soviet Union obtaining the nuke.The closest I can get to the challenge of this thread is a Soviet leader succesfully obtaining global nuclear disarmament.
POD spring of 1945: Russia seizes the Atomkellar under Haigersloch Castle, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany. Soviets also "invite Heisenberg and his research colleagues to continue their research in the "workers' paradise."
No Soviet scientist questions Heisenberg's flawed calculations. Soviets waste several years and millions of rubles on a dead-end project.
Meanwhile British and American police root out hundreds of Soviet spies. Relaxed attitudes towards homosexuality reduce Kim Philby's (and his bum buddies) incentive to leave the UK.
No Soviet scientist questions Heisenberg's flawed calculations. Soviets waste several years and millions of rubles on a dead-end project.
Meanwhile British and American police root out hundreds of Soviet spies. Relaxed attitudes towards homosexuality reduce Kim Philby's (and his bum buddies) incentive to leave the UK.
A few problems with this:
(1) The Soviets were well aware that the Americans had succeeded in developing atomic bombs and the Germans had not. That makes it a bit unlikely that they will religiously follow the German path.
(2) What the hell does "Relaxed attitudes towards homosexuality reduce Kim Philby's (and his bum buddies) incentive to leave the UK" even mean? How do you magically change attitudes toward homosexuality? And anyway, Philby was definitely heterosexual, and neither he nor Burgess, Maclean, Blunt, etc.--who *were* homosexual or bisexual--had much to do with *atomic* spying (in the sense of giving the technical details of how the bomb worked--they might have given the USSR details of how many bombs the US government projected it would produce, but that wouldn't show the Soviets how to produce them). Klaus Fuchs (who again was not gay) did help, but as noted it is doubtful if his espionage (and that of other nuclear scientists) accelerated the Soviet a-bomb program by more than about a year--two at the most. Not that this might not be important (with regard to the start of the Korean War, for example) but the topic is preventing the Soviets from getting the bomb, not delaying them by a year or two.
What I see in your post is a fairly popular theme which, slightly caricatured, runs "Soviet physicists weren't smart enough by themselves to figure out how to build an a-bomb; it was only the western commie-queer-traitor-spies who made it possible." This drastically underestimates the abilities of Soviet nuclear physicists. The biggest nuclear "secret" was simply whether atomic bombs would work. Once the US gave away that "secret" to the whole world in 1945, the Soviet a-bomb was only a matter of time, the main determinant of the pace being the supply of uranium.
BigBlueBox
Banned
ASB unless the Soviets allow free and fair elections in Eastern Europe and give independence to the Baltic states, which is itself ASB unless the Soviets are crushed in World War 2. And if that happened, NATO wouldn't even exist. Oh, the U.K. and France still got nukes too, so your entire post is ASB.
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Note to self: stop quoting OTL Canadian military from the 1970s and 1980s.
Personally, I don't care what people do during their time away from work. Most of the time (99%) it is none of my business.
I just think that "fag-bashing" is a very low form of bullying. Most bullies are insecure cowards.
Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau stated: gov't has no business in the bed-rooms of the nation."
I never got the memo about why Canadian military law was decades behind public opinion.
PlasmaTorch
Banned
The soviet nuclear program was a complete joke. If I had to compare all the WW2 nations on the basis of their nuclear research and achievements, I would put it like so.
1) America.
2) Britain.
3) Germany.
4) Japan.
5) Russia.
Germanys program was arguably in the lead until early 1942, because thats when the HWA relinquished control over it. More importantly, thats when the americans started really pouring manpower into the manhattan project, and they began collaborating with the british. They also had some help from the canadians and french scientists.
Anyway, stopping the USSRs nuclear program isn't very hard. You just have to wipe out all of the spys who were providing her with invaluable intelligence. Bump off the guys like morris cohen and klaus fuchs, and the soviets won't be able to find their ass with a map and a flashlight. They were ignorant about so many things, its almost funny. The problems weren't just limited to building reactors.
I mean, they even struggled with easy stuff like uranium enrichment. One of their spys snuck out a document which mentioned UF6, and the paper was smuggled into the USSR. Igor kurchatov read through it and was baffled: He was the top russian scientist, and he didn't even know what uranium hexafluoride was!
The germans had been working with this stuff since 1939.Another way to prevent the soviets from gaining a bomb is to prevent them from capturing german scientists in 1945. Guys like manfred von ardenne, max von steenbeck, gustav hertz, and gernot zippe. They gave the USSR major insights into how to separate U-235 from U-238, and they also built the zippe-type centrifuge that replaced all other enrichment devices.
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