AHC: Form a Left-Wing Third Party in America

At some point after 1900, using any means short of ASB, have a left-of-centre third party coalesce in the United States. It doesn't need to be full-fledged socialist, but at least social democratic.

When I say 'third party', I mean they meet the following checklist:
~Has a small but stable presence in Congress and multiple state legislatures.
~Presidential candidates regularly garner 5% or more of the popular vote.

Are you prepared?
 

jahenders

Banned
Forming such parties is easy (Socialist, Green, Progressive, etc.), but getting them to meet your third party "viability" requirements is much harder. Our electoral process has coalesced in such a way that 3rd party presidential candidates have very little chance of even getting any electoral votes. That, of course, discourages anyone from voting for them (for President).

So, to you achieve such a thing, you'd need a few things:
1) That a left-wing party (LWP) forms that consolidates many of the existing left wing parties into one. It would have to be a "big tent" party.

2) The Democrats are perceived as "centrist" for an extended period of time, such that the LWP feels the Democrats don't represent their concerns

3) The LWP organizes in all states and is careful to avoid having key spokesmen that appear too far out of the mainstream.

4) The LWP has some early successes in getting a scattering of state legislators and then a few Congressmen elected.

The chance of ANY 3rd party being successful would be GREATLY impacted by changing our presidential electoral process so that states aren't "winner take all." If that changed, you could have an LWP (or a RWP) that gets a handful of electoral votes. That would be a tangible demonstration of success and, in some close elections, would allow them be "deal makers", wringing concessions from (presumably) the Democrats instead of the election going to the House for decision.

Another thing that would help 3rd parties is if states refused to put party affiliation on the ballot. That's not a service to the state or the voters -- it's a free advertisement for the party and allows them to throttle the number of candidates.

At some point after 1900, using any means short of ASB, have a left-of-centre third party coalesce in the United States. It doesn't need to be full-fledged socialist, but at least social democratic.

When I say 'third party', I mean they meet the following checklist:
~Has a small but stable presence in Congress and multiple state legislatures.
~Presidential candidates regularly garner 5% or more of the popular vote.

Are you prepared?
 
Forming such parties is easy (Socialist, Green, Progressive, etc.), but getting them to meet your third party "viability" requirements is much harder. Our electoral process has coalesced in such a way that 3rd party presidential candidates have very little chance of even getting any electoral votes. That, of course, discourages anyone from voting for them (for President).

So, to you achieve such a thing, you'd need a few things:
1) That a left-wing party (LWP) forms that consolidates many of the existing left wing parties into one. It would have to be a "big tent" party.

I could see some of the more left-wing socialist parties consolidating with other progressive and social democratic groups.

2) The Democrats are perceived as "centrist" for an extended period of time, such that the LWP feels the Democrats don't represent their concerns

In other words, have the Democrats go through a long spate of centrist presidential candidates. That might lead some of the McGovern-style Democrats to defect to the LWP.

3) The LWP organizes in all states and is careful to avoid having key spokesmen that appear too far out of the mainstream.

4) The LWP has some early successes in getting a scattering of state legislators and then a few Congressmen elected.

The chance of ANY 3rd party being successful would be GREATLY impacted by changing our presidential electoral process so that states aren't "winner take all." If that changed, you could have an LWP (or a RWP) that gets a handful of electoral votes. That would be a tangible demonstration of success and, in some close elections, would allow them be "deal makers", wringing concessions from (presumably) the Democrats instead of the election going to the House for decision.

Another thing that would help 3rd parties is if states refused to put party affiliation on the ballot. That's not a service to the state or the voters -- it's a free advertisement for the party and allows them to throttle the number of candidates.

Excellent points. Thanks for your insight.
Maybe the left-wingers encourage their supporters to sign petitions demanding ballots in their state to not list parties. This succeeds in several states and leads to considerably more votes there for the LWP.
 
Some sort of "Labor Party" could emerge if both parties are evidently anti-labour.

I think McKinley living is not enough, as his presidency was progressive-tinted despite his pro-business campaign in both his elections. On the other hand, Bryan was very much a representative of the farmers. He was a progressive, but worked for agrarian interests. Indeed, many workers were alienated by his very pro-agrarian comments, like:

William Jennings Bryan said:
You come to us and tell us that the great cities are in favour of the gold standard. I tell you that the great cities rest upon these broad and fertile prairies. Burn down your cities and leave our farms, and your cities will spring up again as if by magic. But destroy our farms and the grass will grow in the streets of every city in the country.

If he is elected, many politicians in both the Democratic and Republican Parties will feel that he is a religious radical, as bad as a socialist and demonstrative of the horrors of the left especially if he successfully achieves free silver. Leftism in general would be discouraged in both parties. The homeless worker's movement (not just socialism; including progressivism) would probably form its own party.
 
Some sort of "Labor Party" could emerge if both parties are evidently anti-labour.

I think McKinley living is not enough, as his presidency was progressive-tinted despite his pro-business campaign in both his elections. On the other hand, Bryan was very much a representative of the farmers. He was a progressive, but worked for agrarian interests. Indeed, many workers were alienated by his very pro-agrarian comments, like:



If he is elected, many politicians in both the Democratic and Republican Parties will feel that he is a religious radical, as bad as a socialist and demonstrative of the horrors of the left especially if he successfully achieves free silver. Leftism in general would be discouraged in both parties. The homeless worker's movement (not just socialism; including progressivism) would probably form its own party.

Thank you for feeding into my William Jennings Bryan fetish:p

I imagine if Bryan narrowly won one term as president, he would discourage populist tendencies in the major parties.
Imagine if the Bryan-variety agrarian populists and the socialist merged, in order to unite the urban and rural working classes. Now that would be something to see:D
 
Thank you for feeding into my William Jennings Bryan fetish:p

I imagine if Bryan narrowly won one term as president, he would discourage populist tendencies in the major parties.
Imagine if the Bryan-variety agrarian populists and the socialist merged, in order to unite the urban and rural working classes. Now that would be something to see:D


Yeah, that would be. However, that would be impossible as the Bryanish populists and the socialists have greatly different social views. Look up Bryan's racial views (there's a reason the South voted for him) and then look up Eugene Debs' social views.

Also, Bryan worked for the farmers. He was farmer-centric and alienated a lot of workers with his rhetoric. If he is elected, he will discourage leftist tendencies while also doing nothing to help workers.
 
[/B]

Yeah, that would be. However, that would be impossible as the Bryanish populists and the socialists have greatly different social views. Look up Bryan's racial views (there's a reason the South voted for him) and then look up Eugene Debs' social views.

Also, Bryan worked for the farmers. He was farmer-centric and alienated a lot of workers with his rhetoric. If he is elected, he will discourage leftist tendencies while also doing nothing to help workers.

Another scenario I'd imagined was a merger of the Socialists and Progressives in the 1950s. The Socialists want to distance themselves from Communism and the Progressives want greater influence.
 
Another scenario I'd imagined was a merger of the Socialists and Progressives in the 1950s. The Socialists want to distance themselves from Communism and the Progressives want greater influence.

Not possible. The Progressives were actually Soviet-influenced. The only thing they really did was split the vote in 1948 so Dewey could win New York. If this fact comes out, this "Progressive-Socialist Party" will be hunted down by Democrats and Republicans.

Not to mention it was kind of hard for the Socialists to distance themselves from communism considering the USSR was the "Union of Soviet Socialist Republics" and so will be constantly hunted down by McCarthyists.
 
(1912) You could have a series of scandals wreck Wilson and then kill Taft, leading to a possible Roosevelt victory.
 
Wouldn't happen without an electoral reform throwing FPTP on the scapyard, and at least to a certain extend embracing some kind of Propotional/Mixed Member system. FPTP is the surest way outside of legal mandate to make it a two-horse race, outside of regional parties.
 
Wouldn't happen without an electoral reform throwing FPTP on the scapyard, and at least to a certain extend embracing some kind of Propotional/Mixed Member system. FPTP is the surest way outside of legal mandate to make it a two-horse race, outside of regional parties.

The party does not necessarily have to compete in the presidential elections until later. It can field congressional and state-wide candidates and then once it has obtained a large amount of such candidates and support, then run for the presidential elections.

This will definitely cause a chaotic no-majority House election that will lead to the vice president becoming Acting President until one candidate (probably a Democrat or Republican) drops and endorses another. If the socialist party is the one with a majority, it can claim a "corrupt bargain", one that will obtain it large levels of support.
 
Here's a possible scenario:

In the mid-1950s, the Socialist Party merges with several other socialist, social democratic, and progressive groups to form a big tent left-wing party called the Labour Party of the United States, AKA Labour USA. (They chose the name to draw association to the more mainstream British Labour Party.
Labour is careful to distance itself from Communism, and though advocating distinctly dovish foreign policy, denounced the Soviet and Red Chinese leadership as tyrants and traitors of socialism.
Later, in 1964, Henry Cabot Lodge won the GOP nomination and did considerably better than OTL Goldwater. In the late 1960s, the Democrats shift to a broadly centrist position to combat moderate a line of moderate Republicans such as Lodge and Nixon. They distance themselves from unions and affirmative action.
With the liberal and progressive wings of the Democratic Party, being pushed to the sidelines, some of their voters defect to Labour USA. In 1972, the Democrats proffered a centrist candidate in response to Humphrey's defeat by Nixon.
This led to left-wing Democrats, mainly progressive students and anti-war advocates, to vote Labour, and they were joined by a number of black and working-class, pro-union voters.
In the 1970s, Labour wins seats in the House and several state legislatures, and soon becomes a 'third wheel' in America's electoral system.
 
A "Labor Party" in the '50s will be hunted down as a result of its socialist make-up. If it survives that, it will have enough butterflies to make Nixon elected president in 1960 (as people fear more internal subversion) and that renders much of the scenario null and void.
 
Wouldn't happen without an electoral reform throwing FPTP on the scapyard, and at least to a certain extend embracing some kind of Propotional/Mixed Member system. FPTP is the surest way outside of legal mandate to make it a two-horse race, outside of regional parties.

It would be very difficult to institute MMP in the United States.

The party does not necessarily have to compete in the presidential elections until later. It can field congressional and state-wide candidates and then once it has obtained a large amount of such candidates and support, then run for the presidential elections.

This will definitely cause a chaotic no-majority House election that will lead to the vice president becoming Acting President until one candidate (probably a Democrat or Republican) drops and endorses another. If the socialist party is the one with a majority, it can claim a "corrupt bargain", one that will obtain it large levels of support.

I'd imagined them focusing on getting state legislators and local officials elected first, then Congressmen, then make a presidential run.
 
I double checked; this challenge has indeed been posted in the Pre-1900 Forum.

One could hardly tell since just about every reply seems focused on post-1900 changes!

I hardly care if the topic sprawls across the arbitrary boundary, and this particular one would be most likely to. However the amazing thing that is there is no weight given to pre-1900 formation or roots of precursor parties or anything much happening before the election of 1896!

I was going to throw in a mention of the multi-party system that develops in Jonathan Edelstein's Malê Rising TL, which has recently been finished. It "fails" to meet the challenge--only because there winds up being not just one leftist party but two or more at various times--without any drastic or anyway essential change in the election rules, the US forms a fairly stable four or five party system! At least two of those are different flavors of left-wing, certainly by OTL post-Cold War era standards! (By those standards perhaps all but one of the parties are leftist).

Note that in the 19th Century OTL, a Left-Wing Third Party did form in the USA--the Republican Party. It managed to form and grow despite the existence of a two-party system between the Whigs and the Democrats, and by any sensible definition was at the time of its emergence (and first half-decade or so of dominance, under Lincoln) quite evidently left of either former party. It moved to the center (or rather, pretty much defined the "center" by definition) but various splinter parties formed mostly from dissidents who were former, foundational Republican stalwarts--and these dissidents were invariably both to the left of the emerging plutocratic-oligarchic party bosses, and quite of the mind that the GOP was deserting them, not the other way round.

So, with the example of the formation of the GOP before us and noting the ferment of dissent that roiled the apparent hegemony of that party throughout the period 1870-1890, I'd think there ought to be a lot more discussion of potentials of either forming the leftist one-of-three party in the late 19th century, or anyway considering how alternative courses of the various radical movements of that period might have laid the groundwork for a leftist third party to form any time in the 20th century.

OTL of course the People's Party bid fair to nearly meet the challenge all by itself. Had the Populists been better able and willing to link up with non-agrarian (or mining) working-class movements, to ally with urban industrial labor radicals, I'd think they might not only have survived but tipped the balance to become the dominant party some time before 1920. I'm not talking here about Marxist revolution either; the hegemony of such a party would be checked and opposed by the conservatives and I'm talking about scenarios where the radicals remain within bounds of the American constitutional system enough that they can be voted out of power eventually. But just as the radicals could or anyway would not move to crush the potential of the conservatives to unseat them, so the conservatives could not get away with reversing everything the radicals do. The center of mass of US politics is moved leftward and the new Rad-Pop Party alternates in periods of dominance with one or two other parties.

Jonathan's Malê Rising TL has a lot of fans, myself being among them; perhaps the model he presents for a US multipolar party system is not highly realistic. But it did seem to emerge gradually and naturally (and without any preliminary reform of basic election procedure to favor multiple parties--it happens under the current Electoral College and pervasive winner-take-all local electoral systems). Perhaps a crucial element in the process was a more limited sweep of the post-Civil War Amendments. (Lincoln is not assassinated and serves out both his terms and the Republicans are less Radical-dominated than OTL). In addition to weaker (initially) Federal mandates of broad civil rights, it is also essential that a few regions (mainly South Carolina) are dominated by local African-American majorities and remain bastions of full civil rights for AA's (though the majority of the South and to an extent the North and West are at least as reactionary as OTL, in some places and some ways being worse for some time). So the struggle for basic civil rights becomes a grassroots and local one, with at least one State of the Union being a bastion of the generally losing side. I suspect this fact of the ATL helps lay the groundwork for minority coalitions of all kinds persevering as independent movements.

Another step on the road was the ATL Great War, happening some twenty years before our OTL WWI, and the debate in the USA about whether to join it and if so on what side with what war aims, which creates space (along with a generation's worth of general grassroots organizing around various radical causes) for a Peace Party movement, which was never very large in headcount of reliable voting publics, but did tend to command the allegiance of very illustrious leading citizens (such as say, Samuel Clemens and Harriet Tubman, in alliance with yet other interesting figures). In this context, two larger and more stable left-wing parties also were forming--separate Progressives and Populists. Jonathan rather confused me by somewhat reversing the OTL organizational histories of these two movements--the Progs (and I admit this still seems a bit odd and perhaps improbable to me) form from moderate but definitely reformist elements of both the Republican and Democratic parties, fed up with being filtered out of influence by the mainstream party machinery, and joining together under a new party banner to champion pretty much the OTL Progressive agenda of reform from above by middle and upper class elite elements. (OTL people of this mind never formed such a third party, instead operating within both the Republican and Democratic parties, depending on which dominated their local region). Whereas in the ATL the People's Party, a union of radical agrarians and urban labor advocates from the beginning, begins as movements within the established two parties but only gradually realize they must also split off into their own separate party.

In any case the elections of the early 1890s, polarized and intensified by the war question as well as accumulated tectonic forces built up by the general climate of popular empowerment that is the spirit of the time line (radiating from a radical ATL figure, Paulo Abacar, after whose movement in West Africa the TL is named--radiating through the USA in particular via an extra level of organized rebellion against slavery by African Americans, which helps explain how the South Carolinian black majority winds up prevailing in their state) become fractured, with the election returns giving no clear majority for President while the houses of Congress must seat representatives of all the new "third" parties, so any horsetrading to settle the Presidential race in Congress must still balance the interests of at least two or three of four or five effective factions. Whereas there is enough common ground cross-cutting across the factions, which differ in emphases and policy on particular issues rather than radically across the board, that effective coalitions are possible.

Once the precedents of settling multi-polar election results are set and the basic conditions that enable third and fourth parties to make a respectable showing that translates into meaningful power sharing persist for a while, the multipolar system becomes customary. It is unclear to me whether there was any substantial reform in the basic US election machinery to make it more favorable to multiple parties or not.

As a general rule I'd think that such reforms would follow the rise of a stable three or more party system rather than lay groundwork for it, because under the two-party system the dominant two benefit tremendously from machinery that tends to eradicate the visibility of rival new parties. However it might be, as Jonathan's example would indicate, that a multipolar party system can survive despite rules that would tend to reinforce a two-party system, and if it has done so for a couple generations reform of the basic election rules might not be a very popular cause. I myself would love to see them, but getting that result without first forming a third party that is strong enough to stay in the game a long time but not so strong as to simply destroy one of the formerly dominant two seems Utopian to me.

Without the perhaps miraculous intervention of the thought of Paulo Abacar to redeem our other ATLs, how are we to achieve realistic leftist third parties that come to stay in the USA? Well I just want to close this post by reiterating that there is plenty of material to work with in the OTL ferment of the second half of the 19th century. And that a strongly leftist party will tend to be unable to completely replace either of the two established parties, but on the other hand could have a bastion of stalwart voters who will never cross lines to support either of those. Such a leftist party might fluctuate into the position of being the majority party from time to time, and in recession might maintain via its bastion of reliable supporters plus specific candidate personalities and specific electoral issues, keep open a revolving door of state legislature dominance and/or governor's positions. while maintaining a strong if third-ranked (often I think, perhaps second-rank) position in the House and probably manage to always have at least a handful of Senators as well. As long as the leftist party can maintain some visible level of presence, by retaining control of some states or anyway being the dominant opposition party in some of them, and keeping their hand in Congress on a significant level, as well as a round of control of city and other local governments, its principles--the same ones that generally block it from achieving a solid majority across the board--can guarantee it retains a solid base the other two parties can't erode, and so remains a contender for electoral victory at all levels. If this is the case, then while some or perhaps essentially all non-leftist politicians may make crusading against them the center of their political position, at least some of the time at least some of the politicians of the other two parties will find it tempting or even congenial to form coalitions with the leftists, and both cooperating parties might profit much from this. Thus, even if the leftist party can only rarely or perhaps never elect a President, they still can wind up having a solid amount of influence proportional to how many votes they tend to pick up, even if those votes often fail to elect a candidate.

So, if I were challenged to produce any third party at all, and charged not to make that third party a regional one, I would point to the left-wing constituency as a likely basis for a party that may only rarely emerge from third place but can remain standing in a strong third place position for generations. The conflict of interest between the dominant capitalist interest of the USA as we know it prevents them from taking power comprehensively, but the conflict of interest between dominant capitalism and the working classes can also generate a constituency militant enough to persist in organizing separately despite frequent defeats at the polls, but compliant enough with US society as it is to work within the system on these terms. "They'd rather be right than President!"

Of course, they might also wind up producing a President someday, and perhaps become the dominant party after all, and redefine the terms on which rivals campaign to replace them.
 
I presume you don't mean just state-level parties like the Farmer-Labor Party in Minnesota.

In that case, there's a plausible path to such a situation in the early 2020s (a Sanders victory), except it's not an official party but a faction within the Democratic Party, much like the Tea Party within the Republican Party.

If you want a formal party, then it's harder. The US has a more rigid two-party system than the UK and Canada, and tends to like resolving ideological disputes within the party system rather than by letting things like the Canadian NDP or the UK Lib Dems and UKIP grow. The lack of a UKIP I could easily explain: American elites maintain working-class affectations (e.g. ignorance of the rest of the world) whereas European ones don't, so anti-establishment populists find it easier to stay inside the party system than to form alternate parties as on this side of the Pond. The lack of an NDP or Lib Dems is harder; my guess, ad the NDP, is that the NDP has benefited from more regionalism in Canadian politics, tapping first into rural Western populism and now into Quebec left-wing politics. In this view, it's more like the Bloc, SNP, and Plaid Cymru than like the Lib Dems or UKIP - its recent foray into national politics was only really successful when the Liberals collapsed, and in the most recent election, Canadians returned to the Liberals and left the NDP a distant third.

That said... Sanders has a lot of early-NDP affectations himself. That tradition exists in the US - again, the Farmer-Labor Party. It's just never been as big, which I think comes out of the fact that the biggest regional division was until recently South vs. everything else, which was conducive to an explicitly racist faction (the Dixiecrats) but not to a socialist one. Of note, your socialist party would be a third party and not displace the Democrats the way Labour displaced the Liberals, so if it were regional, it would have to be based out of a marked minority region, and not out of a majority region like the US North, in the same way the UK's regional parties are not in England but in the other constituent countries.

On top of it all, for reasons I'm not sure about, the US tends toward preserving institutions long past their sell-by dates, and just changing their function. Hence the ideological shifts in the parties and the formation of new factions without changing the party structure, and the effective rewrites of the Constitution without ever admitting this happened.
 
Hacking the System

Does anyone know how the election laws came to be formulated so the overwhelming advantage is to the Two Big Parties (only two, only two)?

It would seem that the Establishment parties have the game rigged to shut out any challenge to their hegemony, with all of the impediments to getting ballot access for a party other then the Two Biggies.


There is also the issue of gerrymandering, which benefits the Two Biggies also (perhaps not equally, but enough so that they don't squawk.)

Both of these problems would have to be addressed in the State legislatures, but given the self-interest of politicians and national organizations, it seems it would almost have to be undertaken in many states at once, as piecemeal would permit them to be knocked off one at a time.
 
At some point after 1900, using any means short of ASB, have a left-of-centre third party coalesce in the United States. It doesn't need to be full-fledged socialist, but at least social democratic.

When I say 'third party', I mean they meet the following checklist:
~Has a small but stable presence in Congress and multiple state legislatures.
~Presidential candidates regularly garner 5% or more of the popular vote.

Are you prepared?

A conservative Democrat is elected in 1932 instead of FDR. It was the New Deal that confounded attempts to form a national Farmer-Labor party on the model of the Minnesota one--in particular, the proposed party could not get the trade union support it would have needed, because union leaders felt they had to back FDR to save the Wagner Act.

See my argument that a conservative Democrat being elected in 1932 could lead to a four-party system in 1936: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=8858257&postcount=10
 
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