AHC: Chinese population less then half a billion

[phx1138]

Short of a Chinese Industrial Revolution in the 1800s & massive industrialization, coupled with dramatic improvements in standards of living (& so decreased birthrates), I don't think you can do it.

 

[Dfront21]

Have Genghis Khan do what he did in the Middle East/Central Asia: massacare 2/3s of the population, which leads to societal collapse.

 

[Zuvarq]

Challenge: Have the population of China today be less then half a billion.

Nice try, Imperial Japanese Army.

 

[Plumber]

Mao. While he encouraged high population growth, he nearly got China nuked off the map, and nearly handed China off to the Gang of Four by starting the Cultural Revolution. If the Gang of Four can end up as China's Khmer Rouge, then you've got it.

 

[Nugax]

Have bacterial rice leaf blight both arise earlier (in the 1800s rather than 1950) and develop a variant that can handle long range airborne dispersal.

You'll knock out 10-20% of each year's crop productivity and drastically reduce food surpluses. This will produce a cumulative effect depressing grow rates in all the Asian rice-based economies. Might not be under half a billion but if it hits early enough it could be a lot less.

@Dfront21; The mongol invasion is much too far in the past - regions can easily bounced back from that sort of population loss in three centuries. The Middle east was so badly affected due to the population level dropping below what was needed to maintain the trade and irrigation systems. Most places in china weren't as dependent on large scale hydrologic management.