AH Challenge: Peace Without Victory
- Thread starter Othniel
- Start date
Susano
Banned
Eh? Have you looked at that points? IIRC, it was basically "Every nation get its right to selfdetermination - oh, except the Germans!". The 14 Points would be a CP loss, and thus by defeault an allied victory.
Germany was hopelessly in debt by 1917 and the only hope of paying back the debts would be by forcing the Entente to pay. A peace without victors is basically a peace where Germany's economy tanks in a very few years.
I reckon the two ways it could happen would be:
1) If they cut it short before the trenches are dug
2) An extended war where everybody walks out losers after a drawn-out stalemate. Quite similar to OTL.
Direct American involvement very early on could bring about the first outcome. US neutrality could bring about the second, leaving the Europeans to slug it out without interference.
Thats just my two cents.
1) If they cut it short before the trenches are dug
2) An extended war where everybody walks out losers after a drawn-out stalemate. Quite similar to OTL.
Direct American involvement very early on could bring about the first outcome. US neutrality could bring about the second, leaving the Europeans to slug it out without interference.
Thats just my two cents.
ninebucks
Banned
How about a situation whereby the Austro-Hungarian Empire sells Germany out?
The POD would be the start of the war, whereas in OTL the Austro-Hungarians hardly invested anything into their military and were carried along by Germany by most of the way (AHE military expenditure didn't even double whereas Germany's pentupled), in TTL they would been more initially enthusiastic, lets say they tripled their military expenditure (to the severe harm of their treasury) and ran a much better army.
This would allow for some easier victories towards the start of the war, but the Russian Brusilov Offencive of 1916 would have been just as effective, killing about 1.25 million AHE soldiers. However, with the slightly better trained and equipped AH army, the Russians took much more of a beating, which in turn influenced a much more successful and slightly earlier communist revolution.
At this point the Austro-Hungarians seriously begin thinking about peace. As the army that they have lost is more clearly their own, and not just the Germans taking the hits for them, they are more eager to avoid any repeats of Brusilov. And seeing as Russia has pulled out of the war and been replaced with a regime that seems to wish to stay out of Mitteleuropean politics, the Empire feels that it has achieved enough out of the war. And so by the end of the year Austro-Hungary is secretly talking to the Allies.
By the time Wilson makes his fourteen points speech on the 2nd January, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, to the shock of Germany, replies immediately wishing to end the conflict peacefully. Germany, shocked and angered, suspends its diplomats in the Empire but refuses to contemplate peace. However, after several months fighting alone Germany found its ability and desire to keep warring was greatly diminished, and so signed an armistice on the 9th September.
Germany was not permitted representation at the negotiations in Versailles, but the Austro-Hungarian Empire was. Its respresentitives used their position there to act as Germany's advocate, and indeed, they succeeded in moderating some of the allies more extreme aims, i.e. knocking a few million off of France's bill for reparations.
At the treaty's conclusion, Germany was still treated harshly, but less so than in OTL, it lost territory to France and also its former ally the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The Empire itself was ordered to submit its southern provinces to pleibiscite, and many seceded and joined the Balkan states. In addition, Austro-Hungary was ordered to implement a new constitution, more closely protecting national self-determination, the new empire consisted of a number of states roughly equivilent to the dominant ethnicity and was refounded as the Confederacy of St. Stephan, with the Hapsburg emperor remaining as a ceremonial figurehead. The Ottoman Empire was still partitioned into allied mandates.
In the aftermath of the war, the Confederacy was allowed to rebuild, and rebuild it did, becoming one of Europe's most vibrant economies. Germany suffered under the Treaty of Versailles, as in OTL, but it was eventually let off from its more damaging punishments by the fledgling League of Nations. France was resentful of the international community coming between her and her vengeance, which many interpreted and one of the reasons why France slided towards fascism in the '30s. Similarly, fascists came to power in Italy and Spain, forming what was called the Romantic Bloc. Germany fell under the sway of the Social Democrats, and stayed under their sway untill the 1960s. Germany had one of the most all-inclusive welfare systems in Europe and was widely imitated.
Upon Vladmir Lenin's death, his protege Leon Trotsky assumed control. Trotsky reversed Lenin's New Economic Policy and forced the introduction of collectivised farming in the countryside, and in the city's he encouraged communal living, ensuring that newly built flats would include courtyards for communal gatherings, he also employed more informants to secure that people with counter-revolutionary opinions were dealt with. Although perhaps Trotsky's most important policy was 'International Socialism', this involved creating and developing links with other socialist movements throughout the world. Especially strong was the Soviet-German relationship, the Soviet Embassy in Germany was a custom-built huge modernist palace, that openly funded, supported and hosted socialistic projects in the country, including exhibitions, publications and youth groups. Many countries, including Britain and the Romantic Bloc feared that Germany would one day pose a socialist threat to the whole of Europe. To counter this threat the Romantic Bloc instituted a program of intense militarisation throughout the 30s and 40s. An authoritarian corporatist regime was propped up in Poland to keep the increasingly cozy German Republic and Soviet Union apart.
The USA was mostly neutral to what was happening in Europe, in their eyes the Versailles Treaty (which was eventually ratified in the 1920s) had produced a lasting peace which had even managed to get Europe through the Depression without a major war breaking out.
In 1958, Leon Trotsky died whilst in office. He is succeeded by Andrey Vlasov, a senior general in the Red Army. Vlasov openly criticised Trotsky's communism as being soft, and concentrating too much on inconveniencing the Russian people instead of fighting the good fight against international capitalism. Opposed to Trotsky's national pluralism, Vlasov strikes to instill a strong Soviet National Identity by militarising society in general. Factories that had been used to produce creature comforts during the Trotsky-era are converted for war production. Vlasov, with his Mongoloid features and thick-rimmed glasses proves an effective hate figure in the Romantic Bloc. Meanwhile, a radical group splits away from the mainstream Social Democratic Party in Germany to found the National Socialists, a Vlasovist group that wishes to rearm Germany, retake all lost territory and crush the beourgeois Romantic Bloc. Over the next few years tensions in Europe continue to bubble up, the National Socialists win the 1961 German election after spending the last five years in coalition, Soviet guns flood in, and then, in 1963, the Romantic Bloc declares war on Germany. The Soviet Union and the Scandanavian nations jump to Germany's defence and World War Two begins.
Germany is quickly overran, and National Socialists quickly go underground and wage a guerilla war against the occupation. Britain and the Confederacy attempt to remain neutral, but as the Soviet Union takes more and more of Europe these nations may find themselves compelled...
---
What do you guys think? Should I continue this?
The POD would be the start of the war, whereas in OTL the Austro-Hungarians hardly invested anything into their military and were carried along by Germany by most of the way (AHE military expenditure didn't even double whereas Germany's pentupled), in TTL they would been more initially enthusiastic, lets say they tripled their military expenditure (to the severe harm of their treasury) and ran a much better army.
This would allow for some easier victories towards the start of the war, but the Russian Brusilov Offencive of 1916 would have been just as effective, killing about 1.25 million AHE soldiers. However, with the slightly better trained and equipped AH army, the Russians took much more of a beating, which in turn influenced a much more successful and slightly earlier communist revolution.
At this point the Austro-Hungarians seriously begin thinking about peace. As the army that they have lost is more clearly their own, and not just the Germans taking the hits for them, they are more eager to avoid any repeats of Brusilov. And seeing as Russia has pulled out of the war and been replaced with a regime that seems to wish to stay out of Mitteleuropean politics, the Empire feels that it has achieved enough out of the war. And so by the end of the year Austro-Hungary is secretly talking to the Allies.
By the time Wilson makes his fourteen points speech on the 2nd January, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, to the shock of Germany, replies immediately wishing to end the conflict peacefully. Germany, shocked and angered, suspends its diplomats in the Empire but refuses to contemplate peace. However, after several months fighting alone Germany found its ability and desire to keep warring was greatly diminished, and so signed an armistice on the 9th September.
Germany was not permitted representation at the negotiations in Versailles, but the Austro-Hungarian Empire was. Its respresentitives used their position there to act as Germany's advocate, and indeed, they succeeded in moderating some of the allies more extreme aims, i.e. knocking a few million off of France's bill for reparations.
At the treaty's conclusion, Germany was still treated harshly, but less so than in OTL, it lost territory to France and also its former ally the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The Empire itself was ordered to submit its southern provinces to pleibiscite, and many seceded and joined the Balkan states. In addition, Austro-Hungary was ordered to implement a new constitution, more closely protecting national self-determination, the new empire consisted of a number of states roughly equivilent to the dominant ethnicity and was refounded as the Confederacy of St. Stephan, with the Hapsburg emperor remaining as a ceremonial figurehead. The Ottoman Empire was still partitioned into allied mandates.
In the aftermath of the war, the Confederacy was allowed to rebuild, and rebuild it did, becoming one of Europe's most vibrant economies. Germany suffered under the Treaty of Versailles, as in OTL, but it was eventually let off from its more damaging punishments by the fledgling League of Nations. France was resentful of the international community coming between her and her vengeance, which many interpreted and one of the reasons why France slided towards fascism in the '30s. Similarly, fascists came to power in Italy and Spain, forming what was called the Romantic Bloc. Germany fell under the sway of the Social Democrats, and stayed under their sway untill the 1960s. Germany had one of the most all-inclusive welfare systems in Europe and was widely imitated.
Upon Vladmir Lenin's death, his protege Leon Trotsky assumed control. Trotsky reversed Lenin's New Economic Policy and forced the introduction of collectivised farming in the countryside, and in the city's he encouraged communal living, ensuring that newly built flats would include courtyards for communal gatherings, he also employed more informants to secure that people with counter-revolutionary opinions were dealt with. Although perhaps Trotsky's most important policy was 'International Socialism', this involved creating and developing links with other socialist movements throughout the world. Especially strong was the Soviet-German relationship, the Soviet Embassy in Germany was a custom-built huge modernist palace, that openly funded, supported and hosted socialistic projects in the country, including exhibitions, publications and youth groups. Many countries, including Britain and the Romantic Bloc feared that Germany would one day pose a socialist threat to the whole of Europe. To counter this threat the Romantic Bloc instituted a program of intense militarisation throughout the 30s and 40s. An authoritarian corporatist regime was propped up in Poland to keep the increasingly cozy German Republic and Soviet Union apart.
The USA was mostly neutral to what was happening in Europe, in their eyes the Versailles Treaty (which was eventually ratified in the 1920s) had produced a lasting peace which had even managed to get Europe through the Depression without a major war breaking out.
In 1958, Leon Trotsky died whilst in office. He is succeeded by Andrey Vlasov, a senior general in the Red Army. Vlasov openly criticised Trotsky's communism as being soft, and concentrating too much on inconveniencing the Russian people instead of fighting the good fight against international capitalism. Opposed to Trotsky's national pluralism, Vlasov strikes to instill a strong Soviet National Identity by militarising society in general. Factories that had been used to produce creature comforts during the Trotsky-era are converted for war production. Vlasov, with his Mongoloid features and thick-rimmed glasses proves an effective hate figure in the Romantic Bloc. Meanwhile, a radical group splits away from the mainstream Social Democratic Party in Germany to found the National Socialists, a Vlasovist group that wishes to rearm Germany, retake all lost territory and crush the beourgeois Romantic Bloc. Over the next few years tensions in Europe continue to bubble up, the National Socialists win the 1961 German election after spending the last five years in coalition, Soviet guns flood in, and then, in 1963, the Romantic Bloc declares war on Germany. The Soviet Union and the Scandanavian nations jump to Germany's defence and World War Two begins.
Germany is quickly overran, and National Socialists quickly go underground and wage a guerilla war against the occupation. Britain and the Confederacy attempt to remain neutral, but as the Soviet Union takes more and more of Europe these nations may find themselves compelled...
---
What do you guys think? Should I continue this?
ninebucks
Banned
Not neccessarily, they simply say that nations should have a right to self determination. There is no reason why a compromise couldn't be built around the idea of a confederacy, where the nations are free to follow most of their desires, but with a weak, ceremonial central government, especially if the Empire had been co-operative.
Imajin said:
I think this could be resolved through a matter of timing. If Karl had waited untill after the Brusilov Offencive (or maybe even the Russian Revolution) had ended before engaging in secret negotiations. And this might have happened if the Austrian army was larger and better equipped, as the Emperor would have less to fear from German influence.
Besides, rejecting Austro-Hungary's negotiations off-hand and publically announcing them seems to be a tad irrational, and quite easily butterfliable. Perhaps if he began negotiating on a day when there had been a lot of French casualties, or maybe he could have found a channel to negotiate with Britain?
If the Austro-Hungarian Empire bailed out and sued for peace, I think the Ottomans would too as well; maybe the British might still try to forment an Arab uprising though. Arabia, the Levant, Mesopotamia still break away as a part of the peace treaty, but Asia Minor might still be ruled by the Sultan.
Just one question: Why would the post-war Confederation be named after Saint Stephen? Saint Stephen was the first Christian King of Hungary..it implies something about Magyar domination, unless that's what you're aiming for.
Maybe something like the "Confederation of the Danube" or something would be more appropriate.
Maybe something like the "Confederation of the Danube" or something would be more appropriate.
Point VIII called for the return of Alsace-Lorraine to France, which is a German defeat pretty much by definition, and Point XIII called for an independant Poland (with access to the sea), which could only be achieved by taking territory from Germany, Russia and Austria. In short, the Points presupposed an Allied victory.
Nice timeline, ninebucks (I especially like the German-Russian alliance), but I'm not sure I can buy it. If Austria-Hungary is doing better than historically and has no obvious threats (Serbia is beaten, Russia in revolution, they can hold the Italians indefinitely), why should they accept a peace which means the loss of of their southern territories and the reduction of the ruling class to powerless figureheads? If they'd been prepared to let the South Slavs go, they wouldn't have declared war in 1914...
My best shot at a post-1914 negotiated settlement goes like this:
Hindenburg suffers a stroke in May 1916 and dies shortly after. On the day of his funeral, the High Seas Fleet suffers a significant defeat at Jutland. The militarists have lost their figurehead and the Social Democrats in the Reichstag are able to use the trauma of Jutland to remove Ludendorff from power and re-establish civilian control of the military. The new government sends out peace feelers.
Meanwhile in the East, the Austrians have been prosecuting the war more energetically, their armies are larger and better organised than OTL, and the Brusilov Offensive is a bloody failure. The disaster, on top of the loss of Poland in 1915, sparks a wave of civil unrest in Russia.
In July 1916, the British launch a massive offensive on the Somme which achieves an initial breakthrough. The new German government panics, and believing defeat imminent sends a message to France offering the return of Alsace-Lorraine in return for a ceasefire. The French decide this is too good an offer to pass up, even if it does mean selling out their Slavic allies, and the British, who are taking increasingly heavy casualties as the Somme offensive bogs down and who never much liked the Russians anyway are pressed into agreeing.
By the Treaty of Amsterdam, France gets Alsace-Lorraine, Britain gets most of the German colonies, and the increasingly desperate Russian government gets peace. Under the table, France and Britain concede free hands in Eastern Europe and the Balkans to Germany and Austria respectively. Italy screams blue murder, but without British/French support, can do nothing. Britain goes on to take southern Mesopotamia and parts of Palestine from the Ottomans.
Tsar Nicholas II hoped his armies would return from the front to save his dynasty. In fact they help to overthrow him and Russia begins to slide towards anarchy. Some Germans see a chance for expansion, but the country has had enough war for one decade, and the the Social Democrats see no benefit in incorporating impoverished Polish/Baltic territories into Germany. Besides, Germany is approaching bankruptcy. The "free hand in the East" morphs into a pragmatic alliance between the Social Democrats in Germany and Kerensky's new leftist regime in Petrograd, against the mutual threats of Communist/anarchist uprisings, right-wing coups and Polish/Baltic nationalism. Meanwhile in the south, the Austrians squelch Serbia (turning a rump state loose as a vassal), nibble along the Russian border and encourage the Romanians to take Besserabia (to distract them from Transylvania), but fail in their ambition to set up a puppet Ukraine because they're almost bankrupt themselves and the Ukranian nationalists refuse to cooperate with the Hapsburgs.
Europe's first communist revolution occurs in Italy, where the government collapses in the wake of the "betrayal of 1916". The German government recognises the new regime, the Austrians do not, the British and French equivocate. When the dust settles, Europe emerges divided between the "Imperial Powers" (Britain, France, Austria-Hungary) and the "Popular Front" (Germany/Russia, unofficially Italy), with Eastern Europe (where the Austrians encourage nationalist movements in Poland and the Ukraine and Russia returns the favour in Galicia and Slovakia) as the new Balkans...
Thoughts? I dislike "country quits out of the blue" scenarios, but the German Social Democrats were vaguely anti-war, and it's just possible a couple of military setbacks would have given the peace party leverage to make the country accept (partial) defeat.
Nice timeline, ninebucks (I especially like the German-Russian alliance), but I'm not sure I can buy it. If Austria-Hungary is doing better than historically and has no obvious threats (Serbia is beaten, Russia in revolution, they can hold the Italians indefinitely), why should they accept a peace which means the loss of of their southern territories and the reduction of the ruling class to powerless figureheads? If they'd been prepared to let the South Slavs go, they wouldn't have declared war in 1914...
My best shot at a post-1914 negotiated settlement goes like this:
Hindenburg suffers a stroke in May 1916 and dies shortly after. On the day of his funeral, the High Seas Fleet suffers a significant defeat at Jutland. The militarists have lost their figurehead and the Social Democrats in the Reichstag are able to use the trauma of Jutland to remove Ludendorff from power and re-establish civilian control of the military. The new government sends out peace feelers.
Meanwhile in the East, the Austrians have been prosecuting the war more energetically, their armies are larger and better organised than OTL, and the Brusilov Offensive is a bloody failure. The disaster, on top of the loss of Poland in 1915, sparks a wave of civil unrest in Russia.
In July 1916, the British launch a massive offensive on the Somme which achieves an initial breakthrough. The new German government panics, and believing defeat imminent sends a message to France offering the return of Alsace-Lorraine in return for a ceasefire. The French decide this is too good an offer to pass up, even if it does mean selling out their Slavic allies, and the British, who are taking increasingly heavy casualties as the Somme offensive bogs down and who never much liked the Russians anyway are pressed into agreeing.
By the Treaty of Amsterdam, France gets Alsace-Lorraine, Britain gets most of the German colonies, and the increasingly desperate Russian government gets peace. Under the table, France and Britain concede free hands in Eastern Europe and the Balkans to Germany and Austria respectively. Italy screams blue murder, but without British/French support, can do nothing. Britain goes on to take southern Mesopotamia and parts of Palestine from the Ottomans.
Tsar Nicholas II hoped his armies would return from the front to save his dynasty. In fact they help to overthrow him and Russia begins to slide towards anarchy. Some Germans see a chance for expansion, but the country has had enough war for one decade, and the the Social Democrats see no benefit in incorporating impoverished Polish/Baltic territories into Germany. Besides, Germany is approaching bankruptcy. The "free hand in the East" morphs into a pragmatic alliance between the Social Democrats in Germany and Kerensky's new leftist regime in Petrograd, against the mutual threats of Communist/anarchist uprisings, right-wing coups and Polish/Baltic nationalism. Meanwhile in the south, the Austrians squelch Serbia (turning a rump state loose as a vassal), nibble along the Russian border and encourage the Romanians to take Besserabia (to distract them from Transylvania), but fail in their ambition to set up a puppet Ukraine because they're almost bankrupt themselves and the Ukranian nationalists refuse to cooperate with the Hapsburgs.
Europe's first communist revolution occurs in Italy, where the government collapses in the wake of the "betrayal of 1916". The German government recognises the new regime, the Austrians do not, the British and French equivocate. When the dust settles, Europe emerges divided between the "Imperial Powers" (Britain, France, Austria-Hungary) and the "Popular Front" (Germany/Russia, unofficially Italy), with Eastern Europe (where the Austrians encourage nationalist movements in Poland and the Ukraine and Russia returns the favour in Galicia and Slovakia) as the new Balkans...
Thoughts? I dislike "country quits out of the blue" scenarios, but the German Social Democrats were vaguely anti-war, and it's just possible a couple of military setbacks would have given the peace party leverage to make the country accept (partial) defeat.
ninebucks
Banned
Well, I decided on the Confederacy of Saint Stephen because it is the clearest continuation of what Austro-Hungary actually called itself (the Kingdoms and Lands Represented in the Imperial Council and the Lands of the Crown of St. Stephen), but mostly because I quite liked the idea of Woodrow Wilson setting up a 'Confederacy' - which is how it is generally referred to, both internally and externally, and so the issue of any ethnic/national bias is basically negated.
And Austro-Hungary's change of heart can be pinned on two factors: 1) the new leadership, and 2) the society being militarised to such a point where the subjects do not believe that the war's outcome is a forgone conclusion, but that the army does just about have a chance of success, but not too militarised that a loss of 1.25 million people (including Adolf Hitler, hence his absense in the TL) is not gone unnoticed. The initial armament made the Empire think more carefully about its future.
(I'm working on a next installment as we speak...)
And Austro-Hungary's change of heart can be pinned on two factors: 1) the new leadership, and 2) the society being militarised to such a point where the subjects do not believe that the war's outcome is a forgone conclusion, but that the army does just about have a chance of success, but not too militarised that a loss of 1.25 million people (including Adolf Hitler, hence his absense in the TL) is not gone unnoticed. The initial armament made the Empire think more carefully about its future.
(I'm working on a next installment as we speak...)
Leithania should be the name of any sort of confederation there.
As far as the 14 points go, if one is creative about their application, then they are not that bad for Germany...