AH Challenge - Ottoman non-Empire

First, I am not trying to post this topic just to piss off Abdul :D

Your challenge, should you accept it, is to have the Ottoman Empire fall apart as early as possible, with POD AFTER the Ottoman capture of Constantinople in 1453. It can either be reconquered by the Christians, fall to another resurgent Muslim power, dissolve itself through strife or through peaceful means, or it can even transform itself into something that is neither Ottoman nor the Empire - it does not matter how you bring it down as long as it is plausible. The Empire is considered "gone" if either one of the below conditions is met:

1) There is no state that claims to be direct continuation of the Ottoman state
2) It does not possess Constantinople, is not a major power, and does not possess most of its core territories of 1453
3) It has suffered extreme territorial losses and is not considered an Empire by any outside or inside observer
4) The state's structure becomes something thoroughly different, and as such it no longer possesses office of Sultan, and no longer possesses any trappings of the Empire
5) The state has gone through religious conversion to either religion other than Islam, or to a strand of Islam that would be considered extremely unorthodox and possibly not even remotely Muslim by followers of either Shi'a or Sunni brand of Islam.
6) The Ottoman Empire, regardless of its actual power, possesses minimal or no holdings in Europe and Anatolia/Asia Minor.

Any one of the above conditions would qualify. Therefore, you don't need to physically destroy the Empire, a major metamorphosis might also qualify.

Here is the scoring system:

You get 1 point if the Ottoman Empire is gone by 1900
You get 2 points if the Ottoman Empire is gone by 1800
You get 5 points if the Ottoman Empire is gone by 1700
You get 10 points if the Ottoman Empire is gone by 1650
You get 25 points if the Ottoman Empire is gone by 1600
You get 50 points if there is no more Ottoman Empire by 1550
You get 100 points if the Ottoman Empire no longer exists by 1500

You get minus 100 points for implausible events. ASB outcomes do not count. Maximum possible points is 193.

Have at it!
 
Hmm... what about a dynasty change? Or better yet the overthrowing of the state by someone in the millitary...
 

ninebucks

Banned
Hmm... what about a dynasty change? Or better yet the overthrowing of the state by someone in the millitary...

Why would those result in the collapse of the empire? If you are going to take something you are going to make sure that it was worth taking.
 
Hmm... what about a dynasty change? Or better yet the overthrowing of the state by someone in the millitary...

Let's presume that the change in dynasty would mean it would no longer be Ottoman, but it would still be an Empire. Besides, a different dynasty would probably go out of their way to be seen as legitimate successors - i.e. continuation of the previous state as opposed to a different state taking its place, or a state founded on radically different principles (i.e. modern Turkey emerging from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire, even if somewhat a continuation, considers itself quite different...)
 
So is there one winner or more than one. And if there is one winner do they win via having the best AH or the most realistic scenerio? How dose this work?
 

trajen777

Banned
I see a couple of places where the Ottomnas could have been disolved

1. On Mehmed death there is a massive civil war where the sons are equally matched allowing the various enemies to attack and disolve the empire
2. In Mehmed's invasion of Italy his defeat is followed by the Ital. invasion of Greece, the recapture of Const. and the various Turks fragmenting in Anatolia
3. A powerful Golden Horde Leader reunites the Horde before the 9 part fragmentation in the 1440's. They drive south and defeat the Turks (ala 1402)
4. Charles 7th of France was the first of the French Emperors who was responceable for creating the first Frence standing army, which would yield the powerful gendarme cavalry companies in 1439. His victory over England was guaranteed at this time. He died in 1469. Henery vi of England was a deeply relegious - so lets say a strong Pope stops the useless war early - Charles is getting older and wants heaven - he is feeling guilty for leaving Joan to die - Henry wants to get in good graces with the Pope - The Pope is shocked with the loss of Byzantium - Venice starts losing there Balck sea trade - so the Pope unites England / France / Venice / Hungry / under the french rule - the new model French army - English Bow - Hun light cal - and Venice fleet win vs Ottomans before they can unite the Turkish independent tribes
 
*1456 - Mehmed II dies during the siege of Belgrade, Hungarian forces victorious. The forces heading for Trebizond are delayed as the government focuses on who will become the next Sultan, allowing them a chance to organize a more effective defense when the assault comes. Trebizond forced to pay 500 pieces of gold in annual tribute but retains independence (in OTL it was 2000). Trebizond uses the money they have to upgrade their army, hire some mercenaries, and beg for troops from Georgia, which they secure thanks to the marital history between the two kingdoms
*1457 - Belgrade sees rise of strong Serbian kingdom bent on destruction of Ottomans, who are tied up trying to unify eastern and southern Anatolia from relbellions and small states, especially Ramazanoglu and Trebizond. Ottomans weaken as powerful forces who would use Cem and Bayezid as puppets emerge
*1458 - alliance struck between Wallachia under Vlad Dracul and Hungary under Matthias Coirvinus to decimate Ottomans
*1459 - Morean forces rebel and begin pushing into Athens as Ottoman forces focus on Ilkhan forces trying to take advantage of Ottoman instability. Papal and Genoese alliance with Morea supplies them with troops in exchange for conversion of the Emperor to Catholicism (at least in public) with special trading privledges going to the Genoese and the throne of Trebizond to their puppet Alexander Komnemnos. David Komnemnos comes to power in Trebizond.
*1460 - Ottoman forces lose the Black Sea coast near the eastern bank of the Halys river to Trebizond though they retake Athens from the largely Genose forces there, though they are unable to move into the Pelopenosses because of supply chain disruptions in Thessalonika, Adrinople, and rebellions in Candar.
*1461 - Matthias Corvinus marries Anna Komnemnos of Trebizond and the two different alliances begin plotting the reconquest of Constantinople. Ottomans begin focusing their energies on taking out the Moreans, they do not think the Trebizonds are a serious threat and do not know about the new alliance yet.
*Feburary 1462 - Vlad Dracul leads a combined Hungarian/Wallachian force of over 20,000 at the Second Battle of Varna where Ottoman forces are decimated. Vlad has most of the survivors tortured and impaled. He sends the son of one prominent local leader allied with the Ottomans to the new Sultan Bayzid II with the decapitated head of the Ottoman general in a box. Ottomans immediate begin moving an army north as Karamanid forces begin probing Ottoman defenses in the border areas. Pope Pius II calls for a Crusade against the Ottomans for the purposes of restoring Constantinople to Christiandom, army begins assembling near Venice
*July 1462 - Trebizond forces capture Sinope and Amasia before renouncing their need to pay the quite late tribute to the Ottoman sultanate. Mameluke forces note the defeat of Karamanid forces at Ottoman hands along with the opportunity to carve territory out of southern Anatolia and begin moving troops from Egypt to their base at Tarsus.
*1463 - Pius II moves his army of over 25,000 by Venetian fleet towards Morea, where they land and retake Athens by sheer numbers. Unfortunately the Catholics are not well recieved after they begin trying to replace local Orthodox clergy with Catholic ones, though they prefer obnoxious Catholic rule to that of the most recent Ottoman governor/general if only slightly (he tried to supply and motivate his forces by allowing them to loot the local populace, the Catholic forces exhibit a bit more self-restraint). Trebizond forces place Sivas under siege and begin advanced planning for a campaign towards the Sangarius river along the Black Sea Coast. Mameluke forces encounter an Ottoman force moving along a road in disputed border territory and use this as the official excuse for war, routing an army bound for Sivas at Nigde. Hungarian forces retake Dyrrachium and Skojpe to the elation of local Christians.
*1464 - Ottoman forces rout the Papal/Genoese forces at Athens, only just missing the chance to capture Pius II who dies of fever on a ship returning to Venice. Newly elected Pope Paul II calls for another crusade though he is only able to raise an army of 20,000 during the next year. Vlad leads a combined Hungarian/Wallachian force to besiege Adrinople and sends a small detachment to cut off the supplies to Ottoman forces in Greece. Sivas falls to Trebizond, which begins moving towards the Sangarius River and cutting off swathes of Ottoman territory as they go. Some of the smaller Anatolian principalities rebel and achieve indepenedence, including Caraman.
*1465 - Sultan Bayezid II leads an army of 40,000 to Adrinople to lift the siege and kill Tepes once and for all, though he is unable to defeat Vlad in the field after the latter retreats to bases in Wallachian-held Bulgaria. Hungarian forces move to take Thessalonika and defeat a much-weakened Ottoman force of over 15,000 in the area left over from the recent Papal crusade. Bayezid moves his army towards Thessalonika and encounters Matthias, but is attacked from the rear by Vlad who has followed this massive army quietly. Bayezid II is killed in the battle and the Hungarians claim control of Greece while Wallachia claims dominion over all of Bulgaria. Trebizond seals a treaty with the Mamelukes recognizing Karaman and Mameluke interests in the area.
*1466 - Trebizond, Hungary, and Wallachia lay siege to Constantinople and take the city within 2 months. David of Trebizond declares the restoration of a Byzantine Empire ruling the entire northern half and western third of Anatolia under the house of Komnemnos and is given most of Greece, Macedonia, Ragusa, Dyrrachium, and coastal Bulgaria in exchange for recognizing vassalage to Hungary. Karaman becomes a de facto Mameluke vassal, and the Mamelukes gain southeastern Anatolia. Ottoman leaders flee to Tekke, which is soon conquered by Trebizond/Byzantium, and the entire male house of Osman is killed while the women are either married into other houses of Europe and convert to Christianity or fade into history by less notable or pleasant methods.
 
Last edited:
Whoa... excellent timeline. The only things I would point out, which might need further explanation:

1) "Better Sultan's turban than Cardinal's hat". Ottoman rule was greatly preferred to Catholic by many. So, there has to be a VERY good reason why the people of Athens would swing the other way around.

2) House of Othman would probably not be married into royal houses of Europe - unless any of them convert to Christianity AND command some kind of power, it is too early for religion not to be a barrier.

3) Trebizond did not quite possess much in the way of manpower - it was moderately wealthy, but had way too few people to make a major impact. Their army needs to come from somewhere, and needs to be dependable enough not to cause same problems as most mercenary armies caused in OTL.

4) Have the Komneni converted to Catholicism, at least in public? It can be a real deal-breaker if they did not.

5) Two-month siege of Constantinople looks a bit unrealistic. The city did have the strongest fortifications of the Middle Ages, and it appears that the Ottoman defenders would have been much stronger than Byzantine defenders of OTL 1453, while the Christian forces attempting to retake it were weaker than the Ottoman force of 1453. There needs to be a reason of how the Christians were able to retake the city, given those limitations.
 
Whoa... excellent timeline. The only things I would point out, which might need further explanation:

1) "Better Sultan's turban than Cardinal's hat". Ottoman rule was greatly preferred to Catholic by many. So, there has to be a VERY good reason why the people of Athens would swing the other way around.

I have tossed in Ottoman forces looting fields and towns to get badly-needed supplies and an enthusiastic general...

2) House of Othman would probably not be married into royal houses of Europe - unless any of them convert to Christianity AND command some kind of power, it is too early for religion not to be a barrier.

Daughters might be married into other houses of Europe given their ties to the Byzantine bloodline, especially by smaller states looking to gain some sort of claim to the title of "caesar". I agree that the sons would be killed.

3) Trebizond did not quite possess much in the way of manpower - it was moderately wealthy, but had way too few people to make a major impact. Their army needs to come from somewhere, and needs to be dependable enough not to cause same problems as most mercenary armies caused in OTL.

I figured the Greek towns under Ottoman control would welcome going back to Trebizond control and that the 1500 pieces of gold saved in tribute would be used for hiring better mercenaries and/or getting their own troops better equipment. Borrowing troops from Georgia, which would also be able to make gains of their own at Ottoman expense, would also be likely. Should Venice decide to work against Genoa, they have reason to contribute troops or ships.

4) Have the Komneni converted to Catholicism, at least in public? It can be a real deal-breaker if they did not.

John had already worked with the Church even though the Papacy in my scenario is allying the Genoese, warding him away from that faction. Pius II was more likely to have tolerated this as he was setting up a Crusade of his own for some reason around 1461, I'm not 100% sure what it was. I think that Pius II would be less likely to worry about Trebizond if they're working with Genoa to put another figure on the Trebizond throne anyway.

5) Two-month siege of Constantinople looks a bit unrealistic. The city did have the strongest fortifications of the Middle Ages, and it appears that the Ottoman defenders would have been much stronger than Byzantine defenders of OTL 1453, while the Christian forces attempting to retake it were weaker than the Ottoman force of 1453. There needs to be a reason of how the Christians were able to retake the city, given those limitations.

Bayezid II took an army of 40,000 out from Constantinople and is fighting a multi-front war. With a reduced military presence and government in chaos I figure Ottoman resistance in the capital would be less effective with 8-10 weeks being enough to take the city. I also figure that cannonry would be employed just as the Turks had done, negating some of the advantage of the strong defenses.
 
Last edited:
While we're at it: Are there any cases of Christian royals marrying Muslims today? (Note: A Muslim man is allowed to marry a Christian or Jewish woman, but not vice versa)
 
While we're at it: Are there any cases of Christian royals marrying Muslims today? (Note: A Muslim man is allowed to marry a Christian or Jewish woman, but not vice versa)

European royals have married Christian Arabs in recent decades, but I don't know about Muslims.
 

trajen777

Banned
Hello Wendell

From Wikidea
Mehmed II thought of himself as the heir to the Roman Empire and, as a result, adopted the title "Kayser-i-Rûm" (Roman Caesar) and invaded Italy in 1480. The intent of his invasion was to capture Rome and reunite the Roman Empire for the first time since 751, and, at first, looked like he might be able to do it with the easy capture of Otranto in 1480. However, a rebellion led by an Albanian named George Kastrioti Skanderbeg in Albania between 1443 and 1468 and later in 1480 cut into his military links, allowing a massive force led by Pope Sixtus IV (1471–84) to defeat and evict his army in 1481

In 1480, without cause or warning , the Turkish fleet invaded and landed nearby and took the city and its fort. The Pope called for a crusade, with a massive force built up by Ferdinand I of Naples, among them notably troops of Hungarian king Matthias Corvinus, despite frequent Italian quarreling at the time. The Neapolitan force met with the Turks in 1481, thoroughly annihilating them and recapturing Otranto. However, in the two battles, the city was utterly destroyed, and has never since recovered its importance since the sack of Otranto by the Turks, in which 12,000 men are said to have perished — among them, Bishop Stephen Pendinelli, who was sawn to death. A large percentage of these captured were given the choice of converting to Islam or death - 800 men were beheaded outside the city.[citations needed] The "valley of the martyrs" still recalls this dreadful event.

Anyway I woul dlike to write a breif POD about the Pope uniteing a force to reconquor Byz
 
Hello Wendell
Hi:)
From Wikidea
Mehmed II thought of himself as the heir to the Roman Empire and, as a result, adopted the title "Kayser-i-Rûm" (Roman Caesar) and invaded Italy in 1480. The intent of his invasion was to capture Rome and reunite the Roman Empire for the first time since 751, and, at first, looked like he might be able to do it with the easy capture of Otranto in 1480. However, a rebellion led by an Albanian named George Kastrioti Skanderbeg in Albania between 1443 and 1468 and later in 1480 cut into his military links, allowing a massive force led by Pope Sixtus IV (1471–84) to defeat and evict his army in 1481

In 1480, without cause or warning , the Turkish fleet invaded and landed nearby and took the city and its fort. The Pope called for a crusade, with a massive force built up by Ferdinand I of Naples, among them notably troops of Hungarian king Matthias Corvinus, despite frequent Italian quarreling at the time. The Neapolitan force met with the Turks in 1481, thoroughly annihilating them and recapturing Otranto. However, in the two battles, the city was utterly destroyed, and has never since recovered its importance since the sack of Otranto by the Turks, in which 12,000 men are said to have perished — among them, Bishop Stephen Pendinelli, who was sawn to death. A large percentage of these captured were given the choice of converting to Islam or death - 800 men were beheaded outside the city.[citations needed] The "valley of the martyrs" still recalls this dreadful event.
A very powerful and eventful time in history, and riddled with PODs too.
Anyway I woul dlike to write a breif POD about the Pope uniteing a force to reconquor Byz
Do sothen. I'll be interested in reading it.
 
Interesting scenario's!

Here's something I had in mind...

Unlike in OTL, Jihan Shah, the leader of the Black Sheep Turcomen, does not attack the White Sheep Turcomen in 1466, and instead allies with them
and the Karamanids againest the Ottomans, who are at this point expanding into Anatolia.

The other change is that in this scenario, Uzun Hasan, the leader of the White Sheep Turcomen, actually does get the requested assistance from the Venetians againest the Ottomans in 1464 or perhaps a few years after that.

Then, alliance of the Karamanids, White Sheep and Black Sheep Turcomen actually defeats the Ottomans, and for some extra effect, Sultan Mehmed II dies on the battlefield, leaving the Ottoman Empire without a leader and suffering from some severe dynastic struggles.

But having defeated the Ottomans on the battlefield and halting their conquest of central and eastern Anatolia was not enough for the Karamanids, and they quickly invaded and conquered the Ottoman Anatolian territories as well. (the Karamanids had made similar conquests in some of their wars with the Ottomans in OTL)

The result is that the Ottomans lose pretty much all of their holdings in Anatolia,
but they still control the Aegean Sea at this point.

Meanwhile, the successful rebellion of Skanderbeg (between 1443 and 1468) is still not defeated by the Ottomans, and is now destabilising the European Ottoman territories, while in the following decades, both the Hungarians under Matthias Corvinus and the Moldavians under Stephen III attack the remnants of the Ottoman Empire

Now, we only need to make sure that Matthias Corvinus doesn't decide to invade Moldavia so he doesn't get into a conflict with Stephen III in 1467, giving both of them (especially Stephen) the opportunity to focus on the Ottomans.

Perhaps a new, fierce conflict with the Habsburgs before 1467 could keep Matthias from invading Moldavia...

Anyway, the losses of the Ottomans in Anatolia, their lack of a leader, and the successful rebellion of Skanderbeg lead to even more rebellions among the Serbs and Bulgarians, and among general unrest among the Greeks.

The Serbs manage to maintain their independant state, while Bulgarian rebels, with Valachian and Moldavian support, manage to establish a new Bulgarian kingdom, which is allied with the Serbs, Valachians and Moldavians againest both the Ottomans and the Hungarians.

Greece is at this point still largely Ottoman, but the Ottomans have become more and more dependant on the loyalty of the Greeks, while most Greeks prefer to keep this remnant of the Ottoman Empire alive rather than being subjugated by the Catholic powers again.

The Ottoman Empire itself sees a number of weak sultans and a lot of dynastic struggles,
while the Greek aristocracy within the empire gains more and more influence.

In the early 16th century, the situation in what is left of the Ottoman Empire will stabilize, and the ruling Sultans will now mainly focus on appeasing the Greeks and playing out the Orthodox nations againest the Catholics, while also making sure the Karamanids don't invade Europe.

Save for a few coastal cities, there are no Ottoman territories in Anatolia anymore, and the Karamanids have replaced the Ottomans as the major power in central Anatolia, while the Serbs and Bulgarians have expanded their territories southward, at the cost of the Ottoman Empire.

The Ottoman Empire is now an empire in all but name, not unlike the Byzantine Empire in its last days.
 
This is not possible at any time - it's just too stringent. 5) is what makes it impossible. If you discard that I could come up with a number of solutions. Early on is relatively easy because there was a "bottleneck" in the dynasty with no real acceptable Osmanli males other than Mehmed.

First, I am not trying to post this topic just to piss off Abdul :D

Your challenge, should you accept it, is to have the Ottoman Empire fall apart as early as possible, with POD AFTER the Ottoman capture of Constantinople in 1453. It can either be reconquered by the Christians, fall to another resurgent Muslim power, dissolve itself through strife or through peaceful means, or it can even transform itself into something that is neither Ottoman nor the Empire - it does not matter how you bring it down as long as it is plausible. The Empire is considered "gone" if either one of the below conditions is met:

1) There is no state that claims to be direct continuation of the Ottoman state
2) It does not possess Constantinople, is not a major power, and does not possess most of its core territories of 1453
3) It has suffered extreme territorial losses and is not considered an Empire by any outside or inside observer
4) The state's structure becomes something thoroughly different, and as such it no longer possesses office of Sultan, and no longer possesses any trappings of the Empire
5) The state has gone through religious conversion to either religion other than Islam, or to a strand of Islam that would be considered extremely unorthodox and possibly not even remotely Muslim by followers of either Shi'a or Sunni brand of Islam.
6) The Ottoman Empire, regardless of its actual power, possesses minimal or no holdings in Europe and Anatolia/Asia Minor.

Any one of the above conditions would qualify. Therefore, you don't need to physically destroy the Empire, a major metamorphosis might also qualify.

Here is the scoring system:

You get 1 point if the Ottoman Empire is gone by 1900
You get 2 points if the Ottoman Empire is gone by 1800
You get 5 points if the Ottoman Empire is gone by 1700
You get 10 points if the Ottoman Empire is gone by 1650
You get 25 points if the Ottoman Empire is gone by 1600
You get 50 points if there is no more Ottoman Empire by 1550
You get 100 points if the Ottoman Empire no longer exists by 1500

You get minus 100 points for implausible events. ASB outcomes do not count. Maximum possible points is 193.

Have at it!
 
This is not possible at any time - it's just too stringent. 5) is what makes it impossible. If you discard that I could come up with a number of solutions. Early on is relatively easy because there was a "bottleneck" in the dynasty with no real acceptable Osmanli males other than Mehmed.

He said one of the options...
 
Let's presume that the change in dynasty would mean it would no longer be Ottoman, but it would still be an Empire. Besides, a different dynasty would probably go out of their way to be seen as legitimate successors - i.e. continuation of the previous state as opposed to a different state taking its place, or a state founded on radically different principles (i.e. modern Turkey emerging from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire, even if somewhat a continuation, considers itself quite different...)
3) It has suffered extreme territorial losses and is not considered an Empire by any outside or inside observer

I could make it work under that one. Put a dictator in power, making it no longer an Empire. Syrian and Egyptian nationalism, or some type of poltical idealogy make what was an Empire revert to a Non-Ottoman Kingdom or Dictatorship.

Then we could use this one and finsh it off with a change in the state's sturture. As said in the question before prehaps a millitary junta of some sot.

4) The state's structure becomes something thoroughly different, and as such it no longer possesses office of Sultan, and no longer possesses any trappings of the Empire
 
This is not possible at any time - it's just too stringent. 5) is what makes it impossible. If you discard that I could come up with a number of solutions. Early on is relatively easy because there was a "bottleneck" in the dynasty with no real acceptable Osmanli males other than Mehmed.

As Calgacus has already pointed, it is only one of the criteria - you can have any single one of the criteria I have postulated met, and it would still count, so there is no need to have all of them. #5 is one of the possible ways how it would qualify for the outcome of this "what if", but any ONE of the other options, or combination thereof would work.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Hunyadi and Dracula ?

Any chance we could use Hunyadi ?

Janos Hunyadi (c.1387-1456) entered the service of Sigismund of Hungary and, thanks to his military prowess and intelligence, quickly rose to posts of prominence and prestige. Sigismund came to rely heavily on his military advice and Hunyadi was named governor of Transylvania in 1439. After Sigismund's death, he worked to have the Polish king Wladyslaw III elected as king of Hungary. When Wladyslaw III was killed at the disastrous battle at Varna in 1444, Hunyadi was elected governor of Hungary and guardian of the infant-king Ladislav V in 1446.

Constantly pressured by the Ottoman expansion, Hunyadi recognised that Hungary guarded the door to western Europe and begged other rulers to aid in launching a Crusade. While the importance of protecting the Hungarian frontiers was appreciated by western leaders and the disaster at Varna prompted Pope Callixtus III to call for a European crusade, no assistance was provided. Hunyadi was forced to continue the fight alone. In 1458, with a motley army of peasants, he successfully fought off the Ottoman siege of Belgrade against oppressive odds. Hunyadi died later the same year from an illness contracted during the siege. Hunyadi's success against the Ottomans saved Hungary and preserved Europe.


Is there a way he could gather momentum if he survived ? Hungary is at the forefront of crusades in this period (Nicopolis, and the aforementioned Corvinus in Italy) and could enough of a force be provided to let him have a real go at the Ottomans if he did not die ?

Could we also bring in Vlad III Tepes of Wallachia, aka Drakulya ? He was a staunch defender of his lands against the Ottomans, and maybe we could see him and Hunyadi together ?

Grey Wolf
 
Top