AH challenge: earliest possible development of smokeless powder, and the consequences

[Hendryk]

Black powder is a relatively simple thing to put together, with the earliest recorded use by China in the 9th century, and plenty of ATLs in which this or that iron-age civilization chances upon it, like Robertp6165's "The Guns of the Tawantinsuya". Smokeless powder is a different animal, and requires fairly advanced notions of chemistry to develop. Hence this challenge: what is the earliest plausible date for someone to come up with a usable form of smokeless powder, and what would the consequences be?

I'm guessing it probably wouldn't be before the early 19th century at best, though in a TL like Thande's "Look to the West", chemistry seems to have progressed noticeably faster than in OTL in the second half of the 18th century. But even if we posit development around the 1840s (guncotton, an unstable early version of smokeless powder, was invented in 1846), it could have quite an impact for such events as the American Civil War and the Franco-Prussian War.

 

[Orioes]

Black powder is a relatively simple thing to put together, with the earliest recorded use by China in the 9th century, and plenty of ATLs in which this or that iron-age civilization chances upon it, like Robertp6165's "The Guns of the Tawantinsuya". Smokeless powder is a different animal, and requires fairly advanced notions of chemistry to develop. Hence this challenge: what is the earliest plausible date for someone to come up with a usable form of smokeless powder, and what would the consequences be?

I'm guessing it probably wouldn't be before the early 19th century at best, though in a TL like Thande's "Look to the West", chemistry seems to have progressed noticeably faster than in OTL in the second half of the 18th century. But even if we posit development around the 1840s (guncotton, an unstable early version of smokeless powder, was invented in 1846), it could have quite an impact for such events as the American Civil War and the Franco-Prussian War.

Actually given that all the components were known centuries before its OTL invention I think it comes down to some alchemist knocking over the requisite bottles and not being caught in the explosion as he tries to dry out his towel. After that the question is will someone understand the implications and applications and is there a sufficient chemical industry to supply the precursors to produce it. After the widespread adoption of gunpowder warfare the first seems likely. The later would seem to need to wait until the late 18th or early 19th century and industrialization.

As to the results I would suspect you would see an upswing of battlefield casualties as Napoleonic tactics try to adapt to a more powerful and more accurate weapon. An earlier switch from brightly colored uniforms and from standing in line to khaki and skirmishers perhaps. Even if it is too unstable to issue to your average conscript you could use it to increase the range and destructive power of your field and naval artillery. Perhaps causing an earlier switch to ironclads and steel hulls.

Edit: This might have an interesting effect on naval warfare. You are now less likely to take damage but if you do you will go up like a Roman candle.

 

[Sachyriel]

Does it need to be a plausible scenario with a wide range of variables that don't matter or can it be a long-shot scenario that looks like a Rube Goldberg machine with the dial set to 'implausible'?

Because the plausible one would take a lot longer.

 

[democracy101]

Gunpowder was actually invented in the 1st century AD, although it was used for fireworks and medicinal usage instead of military purposes.

Considering this, I think that the earliest possible time for smokeless gunpowder to come into being is probably around the 10th century.

If this happens to turn out well, then there would be much more advanced conflicts, not to mention the mass number of deaths that would occur. It's also plausible to see some civilizations expanding much more in OTL, although it probably wouldn't make much of a difference because they would all be evenly matched.

 

[BigWillyG]

Would it change tactics and uniforms as much as in OTL if it is invented prior to widespread rifling, breechloaders or repeaters?
Smokeless smoothbores will still be fairly inacuarrate although the fouling issues won't be so big.

 

[Zanford]

I was totally thinking about writing a timeline about this! I think a good time period for it's development(that wouldn't be ASB) would be in the 1830's and 1840's. I was going to tie it's discovery into the early production on pinfire cartridges in France. That way smokeless powder would be at least 20 years old going into the ACW. I was worried about how the metals of the period would stand up to the higher pressures though. Loading a brass bodied Henry Rifle, with something like a .44 special doesn't fill me with confidence. Of course, a Winchester 1892 in 1860 would make the ACW a lot more interesting.

 

[robertp6165]

Black powder is a relatively simple thing to put together, with the earliest recorded use by China in the 9th century, and plenty of ATLs in which this or that iron-age civilization chances upon it, like Robertp6165's "The Guns of the Tawantinsuya". Smokeless powder is a different animal, and requires fairly advanced notions of chemistry to develop. Hence this challenge: what is the earliest plausible date for someone to come up with a usable form of smokeless powder, and what would the consequences be?

I'm guessing it probably wouldn't be before the early 19th century at best, though in a TL like Thande's "Look to the West", chemistry seems to have progressed noticeably faster than in OTL in the second half of the 18th century. But even if we posit development around the 1840s (guncotton, an unstable early version of smokeless powder, was invented in 1846), it could have quite an impact for such events as the American Civil War and the Franco-Prussian War.

The ingredients for the first true Smokeless Powder, Poudre B, were...

--Gelatinized Nitrocellulose
--Ether
--Alcohol

Alcohol obviously presents no problem. The other two do.

Nitrocellulose consists of Nitric Acid and cellulose (commonly cotton or some other natural plant fiber). Nitric acid was discovered in the 8th century A.D. However, the early nitric acids were very weak and it was not until the mid 17th century that stronger nitric acids, which would be necessary, were produced in quantity.

Ether was first synthesized in 1540 (it is claimed that it was discovered by an alchemist in 1275, but there is no proof of this).

So the earliest date the various materials would be available would be the middle of the 17th century.

However, they still have to discover the process of gelatinizing the nitrocellulose (guncotton), which is far too unstable and dangerous to work with in it's original form. In OTL, it took about 40 years for that to happen from the time that guncotton was first discovered in the 1840s. Assuming the same time period for that discovery, then we are looking at the opening years of the 18th century as the earliest possible time for the invention of smokeless powder, assuming the discovery of the components necessary has not be advanced by some other POD.

It will quickly be seen that smokeless powder's full potential can never by utilized with a smoothbore musket. So the development of rifles, and a solution to the problem of loading a rifle rapidly, is accellerated.

Now, if smokeless powder is introduced in say, 1700, that could create all sorts of interesting butterflies. The War of the Spanish Succession will be fought at first with black powder muskets, but by the end of the war, smokeless powder rifles will be making their appearance on the battlefield in limited numbers.

Sometime in the interwar period, you probably see something like a Minie ball developed for the rifle.

The War of the Austrian Succession will be fought by armies equipped mostly with muzzleloading, single-shot flint-lock rifles firing smokeless powder and "minie balls".

As a result of the losses suffered in the War of the Austrian Succession, most armies will abandon their brightly colored uniforms and begin adopting looser, skirmishing tactics over closely packed columns and lines.

The Seven Years War (or its equivalent in the ATL, as the original war may be butterflied away by earlier events) would likely see the introduction of a breechloading firearm firing smokeless powder wrapped in a paper cartridge. The invention of smokeless powder, per se, need not speed up the invention of the percussion cap, so these will likely still be flint-locks. The last armies to abandon bright uniforms and linear tactics will certainly do so after this war. You probably also see the beginnings of trench warfare as the increased rate of fire drives the armies underground.

Once the percussion cap is invented in the early 1800s, you probably see the transition to metallic cartridge ammo speeded up considerably...introduced by the mid-1820s, perhaps...with repeating magazine rifles, and possibly early machine guns, in wide use by the 1850s.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Not only do you need nitric acid; Not only do you need strong nitric acid (as Robert pointed out); you also need CLEAN nitric acid.

Getting sufficiently pure nitric acid so that the guncotton won't explode by itself (or if you look at it funny), is no trivial task. I'm not sure precisely what impurities cause the problem, or how to fix it, but you need very pure nitric acid.

You also need that pure nitric acid in hundredweight lots.

Sure, smokeless powder could come earlier than it did iOTL, but if it comes MUCH earlier, the whole technology of the TL has to be different...

 

[Orioes]

Would it change tactics and uniforms as much as in OTL if it is invented prior to widespread rifling, breechloaders or repeaters?

Most likely not. Smokeless powder is somewhat more powerful and obviously doesn't produce a literal fog of war like black powder but a faster moving piece of roundshot is still just a faster moving piece of roundshot. As an aside if you can make the gelatinized nitrocellulose to produce smokeless powder you can make flash paper and from that a combustible paper cartridge that can be used with both muzzle and breech loaders.