A Pale Horse: The Plague of 1512

corourke

Donor
A Pale Horse: The Plague of 1512

Perhaps if the storm had not been so severe, things would have been different. Perhaps if the storm had been gentler, the Zifa, a Crimean slave ship, would not have had to weather out the storm on the Caucasian coast for an extra few days. Perhaps, if the storm had not delayed them, the Slavemaster’s fatal decision to cut costs by packing less food for the slaves would not have mattered. Perhaps, if the slaves had been fed, they would not have risked certain death and taken over the ship. And, when the slave led ship, newly christened Adilya (Freedom), had put into port at Istanbul, they would have not been immediately captured by the Port Guard, and sent to prison. And there they would not have mingled with the hundreds of petty criminals coming in and out of the prison each day.


Perhaps, if the slaves had been healthy, things would have been different. But the disease that spread from the slaves to the criminals of Istanbul, and from them to almost everyone in the city, was anything but that. Perhaps if it had been in any city but Istanbul, the outbreak, like a ship aflame far from port, would have burned itself out, exhausting all of its fuel and leaving only ashes behind. But Istanbul in 1512 was the most important city in Europe, and its ships, carrying treasures from the east, regularly called into the most important ports of Europe.


Spread-of-the-Plague.gif


The Horse Plague, as it came to be known, spread rapidly from Istanbul to the many ports of Europe. It got its name from the grotesque facial swelling that was commonplace among the victims. The buboes, unlike those caused by the Black Death, tended to be concentrated on the head and necks of the victims, which was said to give them a horselike appearance. Today, the Horse Plague is regarded by most historians to have been a mutation of the Bubonic Plague.

The Horse Plague, in terms of absolute numbers, was not nearly as destructive as the Black Plague that had preceded it. Though it spread over most of Europe, huge spaces in Eastern and Central Europe were spared. In other areas, the plague only infected large cities, leaving the people of the countryside relatively untouched.

Close to two thirds of the plague’s victims were concentrated in three regions. Western Anatolia, Italy, and the Iberian Peninsula were, for one reason or another, the most affected areas that the plague spread to. In Turkey, where the disease spread from, the great city of Istanbul experienced losses as high as 70% of the population. Other major cities of Western Anatolia experienced similar losses. These losses crippled the Ottoman Empire for a generation and would, in the years after the plague, create a population movement from the countryside to the vacated cities and from the Turkish lands in the Balkans to the depopulated cities of Anatolia.

In Italy, the Horse Plague was again concentrated in the cities, where the fleas that bore the illness could easily spread. The great trading city of Venice was the first to be infected, due to its constant contact with trading ships from Istanbul and elsewhere. After Venice, the islands of Sicily, Sardinia, and Corsica were infected, and from there the rest of Italy. Almost two centuries earlier, Milan and managed to escape the worst of the Black Death, but this time its people were not so lucky. With the depopulation of Italy’s major cities, a power vacuum developed, one that France and Austria would compete to fill in the coming years.

If the plague crippled one Empire in the Eastern Mediterranean, it found two to destroy in the West. The empires of Spain and Portugal, newly emerged from their Reconquista, were just stretching their legs as great Powers when the plague struck. Sevilla, Lisbon, and Madrid were the most affected, but all of the cities of the peninsula suffered. The destruction the plague wrought on Spain and Portugal diverted focus from their incipient empires and severely reduced their means to fund such ventures. Historians have called the Horse Plague the chief reason for the failure of Iberian colonialism in the Age of Discovery.
 

HueyLong

Banned
Interesting.

With the horse plague causing urbanization in the Anatolian lands, might they come closer to Western Europe in development?
 

corourke

Donor
Hello everyone.

Here we have my latest attempt at a TL. This, obviously, posits that a plague strikes Europe at the beginning of the sixteenth century.

Here are some of the things I am shooting for in this TL:

- Diverse, developed new world with a prominent role in the world economy
- colonization of the New World by many different European powers
- less dominant Europe
- more multipolar East Asia

This TL will probably resemble my earlier Hungarian Victory at Mohacs in a lot of ways, as I was shooting for similar objectives in that TL. I hope this POD will be much easier to swallow for some of our more critical members :)


Please comment! A large part of the fun of writing a TL comes from knowing that people are reading it and thinking about it. Ask questions! I will try to answer all of them,

Let me know what you think of my opener, and I'll try to post more tomorrow.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Since we are not in ASB, what illess is this, since IOTL Plauge didn't ever mutate this way (& true bubonic was not the real Angel of Death in the 13th-14th century, at least according to recent research)?

The POD is at an excellent time to really throw a spanner into the works.:)
 

corourke

Donor
With the horse plague causing urbanization in the Anatolian lands, might they come closer to Western Europe in development?

The Horse Plague does not cause urbanization per se, however, it caused a movement of peoples from the Balkan areas of the Empire (which were less affected by the plague) to the depopulated cities of Anatolia and Thrace. Most of these people are Greek or Bulgarian. The Ottoman Empire (if it indeed still has that name) that emerges from the plague years will be a product of this integration.

Calbear said:
Since we are not in ASB, what illess is this, since IOTL Plauge didn't ever mutate this way (& true bubonic was not the real Angel of Death in the 13th-14th century, at least according to recent research)?

I don't know. For the purpose of the timeline, it's not really important which disease it was.

ThomasG said:
I wonder if Suleyman has died in the plaque?

This will be the subject of my next update!
 

HueyLong

Banned
The Horse Plague does not cause urbanization per se, however, it caused a movement of peoples from the Balkan areas of the Empire (which were less affected by the plague) to the depopulated cities of Anatolia and Thrace. Most of these people are Greek or Bulgarian. The Ottoman Empire (if it indeed still has that name) that emerges from the plague years will be a product of this integration.

My point was that it is setting up a very European situation in Anatolia. A labor shortage in the countryside, an increase in free laborers etc....
 

corourke

Donor
I am actually running into some trouble here because I don't know much about the way government was conducted in plague years. I imagine that during the plague a central government would have two priorities: 1) protecting its royalty from the plague, and 2) protecting itself from peasant revolts.

This would seem to indicate that wars would generally cease during the few years where the plague was worst, is this a correct assumption? I've looked and I can't find that much about Medieval politics during the Black Death or even the Plague of Justinian.

I imagine that there would also be roving armies of brigands during plague times, probably because of the widespread famine that would also be present.


After the plague has mostly died away, it seems like there might be a lot of opportunistic wars? I really can't seem to find much information on this stuff at all.

Any help, comments, or suggestions would be appreciated!
 
AFAIK, during the Black Death in many places, order and government practically broke together. No wonder, one third of the population had died (in Tuscany, even 70%). It'd be like in those African countries where 30% of the people have AIDS.
 

corourke

Donor
AFAIK, during the Black Death in many places, order and government practically broke together. No wonder, one third of the population had died (in Tuscany, even 70%). It'd be like in those African countries where 30% of the people have AIDS.

Right. Looking at these historical maps (1300 and 1400), it seems that the Black Death allowed for some consolidation in the more fractured areas of Europe. I imagine that this would again be the case, only to a lesser extent (because of the smaller number of casualties in the Horse Plague and the less fractured nature of Europe in 1512). I guess what I am looking for is how long after the plague might it take to restore order to the affected areas? I'm thinking that, if the worst of the plague lasts until say 1517, probably it will take another decade or so before things begin to normalize, that is, brigands and peasant revolts restored to their pre-plague frequency and numbers. Does that make sense?
 

corourke

Donor
The Horse Plague in Italy

Proportion-of-the-Populatio.gif


Proportion of the Population to die in the Horse Plague (1512-1517)

The Horse Plague’s peculiar distribution of death rates is now commonly thought to have been determined by temperature. It is believed that the plague bacterium’s reproductive processes were slowed in colder climes, both because of the retarding effects of temperature as well as the reduced numbers of carrier rats that existed in Northern Europe. Tree rings in the Balkan Peninsula indicate colder than normal temperatures during the plague years, while rings in the Volga Basin indicate a warm spell. Both of these figures are consistent with the death rates experienced in those areas – lower than one would expect in the Balkans, higher than one would expect in the Volga Basin.

In Italy, the plague brought about a consolidation of French and Habsburg influence on the peninsula. The losses decimated the powerful cities of Italy, allowing the less affected northern powers to sweep southward and establish their influence over different parts of the peninsula in the years after the Plague.

The great trading city of Venice experienced casualties only rivaled in a few other cities of Europe. The surviving merchants of the Most Serene Republic, emerging from the destruction of the Horse Plague, found few shoppers in the deserted markets of their once bustling city. The Doge, ruling over a court with half as many senators as before, found his once-overflowing coffers to be depleting. Faced with imperial weakness, the island territories of Crete and Genoa began to exercise more and more autonomy, and Venetian authority in those areas gradually declined.

The Duchies of Savoy and Milan faced similar problems. With the collapse of central authority, the larger cities took the helm of administration. Charles III of Savoy, unable to exert control over his erstwhile duchy, retired to Vienna with something of a vendetta against the newly independent princedoms and republics of Northern Italy. In Milan, much of the Sforza family died of the Plague, strengthening the already strong French claims to the Duchy’s former lands. Many of the newly founded republics began to gravitate toward a style of government similar to that of the Swiss Confederation.

In Central Italy, the Plague caused a similar weakening of most cities. One notable exception, Florence, managed to escape the worst of the plague somehow, and emerge from the plague with a death toll approaching barely 15% of its urban population, compared with close to 70% in cities like Venice and Milan. Over the coming years, Florence would come to be one of the only Italian powers capable of defending itself against imperial interests from Northern Europe.
 

corourke

Donor
Hi,

This is the first part of a four- or five-part series of updates detailing what I briefly described in the first post. After Italy, I will do the Iberian Peninsula, and Anatolia.

After I have discussed the effects that the Horse Plague had on the politics of the most affected areas, I will write how it affected religion in Europe. Remember that this Europe is on the brink of the reformation, and another plague may have serious consequences for the Catholic Church (especially one that might kill a Pope ;)).

I will also write about how the Plague is perceived in Islam. At this time, Shah Ismail is perceived as something of a messiah by some within his Empire, and Persia's lucky escape from the worst ravages of the Horse Plague will cement this issue for some.

I am always looking for ideas, and my mind is in no way set on how things will go, so please give me your feedback on this!
 
Looking at that map, you seem to have spaired most of Northern Europe. Thid id probably good for your TL, because in OTL the new world was (in the end, not at the beggining) under the control of four nations and their descendants, France, Spain, Portugal, nad Britian. In ATL denmark, Sweden, and the Hanseatic league were spared, while the Volga basin was hurt, so any state of the RUs would be weaker (for a while) so the things that destroyed Sweden and the league (Russia) are gone. think about that.
 
Ireland and Scotland, and Part of the HRE come out on top of the new order. erin and scotland make a gaelic empire, while the hre colonize what was spanish territory.
 

corourke

Donor
A Pale Horse: The Horse Plague in Iberia, pt. 1



Proportion-of-the-Populatio.gif

Proportion of the Population to die in the Horse Plague (1512-1517)

Though the Horse Plague killed fewer people in the Iberian Peninsula than it did in Italy, the effect on local governmental systems was in some ways much more destructive. According to some researchers, the Kingdoms of the Iberian Penninsula in 1513 were on the cusp of Empire. With the discovery of the New World two decades before, Castile-Aragon and Portugal seemed to be on the verge of domination of the newly discovered continents and their vast resources. In 1494, a treaty had even been signed between the two countries that would divide the entire globe between them. It is hard to imagine a New World without the linguistic and cultural diversity of our own, but, if the signers of the Treaty of Tordesillas had had their way, we might have seen a united, monolinguistic Nueva España, with the resources of two continents and untold millions of people supporting it.

However, this was not to be. The final blow of the reconquista fell in 1492, when Castile-Aragon conquered Grenada, and unification with Portugal seemed imminent. When the Horse Plague descended upon the peninsula in 1513, it undid in a few years what centuries of Castilian Kings had worked toward. It brought about disunity.

The death of Ferdinand II in 1513 is generally attributed to infection by the Horse Plague. Immortalized by the historian Juan de Bilbao in the late sixteenth century, the tale exhibits interesting similarities to the Decameron of Europe’s previous great plague, albeit with a more sordid ending. The King’s escape to a remote manor ended with his family and all of their servants dead. It has been speculated that the plague’s bacterium was carried to the manor by fleas from the King’s hunting dogs, though it is impossible to know for certain exactly what transmitted the disease.

The death of Ferdinand II brought about a virtual disintegration of Castile-Aragon. Over the course of the plague years, control over the disparate provinces became more and more tenuous, with generals-turned-warlords exercising complete independence from the crown. Huge areas of farmland were abandoned: fields lay fallow, their farmers killed by plague or bandits.

In the Grenada, the most recent area incorporated into the crown, power was seized by a General, Juan Val. He was devoutly religious, and believed that the plague was God’s revenge upon a Christendom that was corrupted by Muslim and Jewish ideas. He called his Kingdom Christogrenada, Christ’s Grenada. From his throne, he expelled all the Muslims remaining in the province. He found support from all over the Mediterranean: his brand of Crusader Catholicism would appeal to many Christians who sought to understand the plague.

The Muslims expelled by Juan Val did not have to travel far. In southern Andalucía, a wealthy Muslim merchant, Abdul Farraj, forcibly took control of portions of the province in the later part of 1515. His emirate brought the wrath of the crusader-minded Juan Val, and the two would fight several short wars into the 1520s. Andalucia’s Muslims had been mostly left alone when the province was conquered by Castile and Aragon in the fourteenth century, and many of them found the return to Muslim rule a desired change, albeit one that would turn out to be short-lived.

In addition to these losses, the Kingdoms of Leon and Aragon broke free of Castile. In the years that followed, they would attempt to reclaim their former separate identities. Navarre and a small kingdom of Asturias centered around Oviedo also emerged as independent entities. By 1520, the borders had stabilized and some semblance of peace had emerged from the chaos of the Horse Plague.


Next: Portugal and Castile-Aragon’s overseas possessions: Sardinia, Sicily, Naples, the Canary Islands, and the Carribean.
 
I am actually running into some trouble here because I don't know much about the way government was conducted in plague years. I imagine that during the plague a central government would have two priorities: 1) protecting its royalty from the plague, and 2) protecting itself from peasant revolts.

The cities were in chaos, due to the deaths, and the countryside was essentially uncontrolled. Really only the palace was safe.

Great TL so far, keep it up.

I'm assuming that most of the New World is between England and France? Maybe Scandinavia, Scotland, or the Netherlands if one of the three get lucky...
 

corourke

Donor
A Pale Horse: The Fortunate Isles

The isolation brought about by the plague years proved to be the crucible that made the Fortunate Isles what they are today. Untouched by the Plague, but without the normal influx of trade goods and news, luxuries and imperial oversight became a for the most part a thing of the past. The scarcity of luxury had another important effect, namely, the Island’s disintegration into civil war. Because of the extremely low populations of the islands, it was a peculiar sort of civil war, characterized more by raids and naval battles than by grandiose battles. Also because of the scarcity of manpower, it proved virtually impossible for any of the islands to exert effective control over another for any period of time, and thus began the island chain’s historic fragmentation.

As the isolation and scarcity of resources became more acute, some of the more powerful islands began sending slave and resource collecting expeditions to the African mainland, which eventually culminated in the construction of Fort San Paulo, at the mouth of the Senegal, by Tenerife. San Paulo existed as an important slaving outpost for the next 300 years. However, it was the remarkable discovery made by its inhabitants that gave it its historical significance. In 1516, an expedition up the River Gambiadiscovered the remnants of the Mali Kingdom. The Mali Kingdom was at this time locked in a life-and-death struggle with the rising power of the Songhai Empire. The Malians, eager to trade for European steel, were willing to pay fabulous prices for crossbows, swords, armor, and even a few small cannon. The various island kingdoms jockeyed for the chance to sell weapons to the Malians, in exchange for raw materials, food, and of course, gold.

During the period of independence, which lasted from the beginning of the Horse Plague until the last protectorate was proclaimed in 1562, the last of the native-held islands were conquered by the various islands states that developed. As contact with Europe resumed, the various island kingdoms became clients of European powers, who were very interested in the riches imported from Africa.
 
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