A New Deal for America: An Alternate History of the Late 1970s & Beyond
- Thread starter Pericles
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The big issue still bedeviling the administration was inflation. Inflation was not going away, instead the problem was getting worse. It had risen from around 5% when Jackson took office to 9% by July 1978. The economy was limping along, with the budget deficit rapidly rising, inflation eating away at living standards, while productivity was low, and many thought taxes and government regulations were too high. Still, the administration had been successful in some areas. Unemployment had shrunk to just 5.2% by July 1978, from around 7.5% when Jackson took office, and the economy was growing by 5% or more. Millions of Americans found the current state of the economy disturbing, with inflation, rising debt and high taxes being seen as the key problems. Across the country, opposition to high taxes and liberalism was rising. To many, it looked as if President Jackson was standing on the beach, like King Canute, trying vainly to turn back the tide. Jackson's approval rating was at 48%, and his presidency was increasingly polarizing, with his spending antagonizing conservatives and rallying liberals, and his foreign policy antagonizing liberals and rallying conservatives.
The economic situation needed to be fixed. Tip O'Neill warned Scoop Jackson that if he did not form a plan to tackle inflation, the Democrats would suffer heavy losses in the midterms. Republicans, seeing the opportunity, were pushing for big gains in the midterms, with Ronald Reagan back, attacking Jackson's policies, while former President Ford said in September that if he were President, the economy would not "be in this mess, and we would have inflation and the debt under control." Jackson struggled to comprehend the angst Americans were feeling, looking at the rising growth and falling unemployment, he thought he was managing the economy fine. The final straw came when on August 15, a study released by dozens of economists showed that on its current trajectory, unless stopped, inflation could rise into double-digits or at best linger in the high single-digits well into the 1980s, being an anchor on the economy, and therefore, on the President's political prospects. Finally, Scoop Jackson realized, he needed to act now.
In late August, the President and his advisers held a conference in Camp David on the economic situation. They concluded the two pressing problems were inflation and the deficit. However, the question of what to about them was much harder to solve. Treasury Secretary Muskie proposed that the top tax rate be increased. It would work Jackson thought It would help balance the budget and that could control inflation too. But even if it works economically, it's political suicide. Every politician knows tax hikes aren't popular! An alternative proposal was to have price controls on energy. It won't be enough. Another proposal was to have a wage and price freeze. Nixon tried that, and that didn't go very well, to say the least. Besides, that would go down pretty badly with labor. An added tax on the profits of the oil and gas industry was also proposed. Commerce Secretary Mike Mansfield backed the tax increase, saying the budget needed to be balanced, but also pressed for a broader wage and price freeze. However it appeared Muskie's tax increase was the only workable solution. The budget deficit needed to be reined in, or inflation would balloon out of control. And with Jackson determined to protect his new programs and the social safety net, the only hope was to increase taxes. The increase would be focused on the rich, and the administration prepared the plan. Also, an immediate price freeze would be imposed on oil and gas. On September 1, the plan was agreed upon. Despite the political risks, the alternative was simply unpalatable.
"My fellow Americans" Scoop Jackson was speaking to the nation "Our nation faces the pressing crisis of inflation. Left unchallenged, it will eat away at our living standards, our economy and our society. As your President, I feel it is my duty to ensure that does not happen. I understand what I am about to propose is a political risk. I understand that tackling such a challenge won't be easy. But I am confident that with the package we have crafted, we can push back the rising inflation. Therefore, I am going to take immediate action to tackle inflation. Starting now, a price freeze will be imposed upon oil and gas. In these commodities, we are seeing immense inflationary pressure. Unchecked, we cannot hope to arrest this problem. Therefore, the solution has to be to freeze the price of these commodities, which will ease the inflation in the general economy and is a much-needed action.
Also, I will enact an increase in the rate of income tax. The deficit is rising, and we need to stop that climb, and balance the budget. After much deliberation, I have come to the conclusion that a tax increase in the top marginal rate is the most viable and most humane solution. The top marginal rate of income tax will be increased from 70% to 75%, and taxes for incomes above $100,000 will go up by 7%. This will give the budget added revenue, and enable us to arrest the rise of the deficit and hold back inflation. I understand it is painful. But there comes a time where we must make sacrifices for the future. Now is that time. And so I call on Congress to pass my budgetary plan, to pass the new Deficit Reduction act that this administration is proposing, so the twin threats of inflation and debt can be defeated. With your help, we can do it..."
In late August, the President and his advisers held a conference in Camp David on the economic situation. They concluded the two pressing problems were inflation and the deficit. However, the question of what to about them was much harder to solve. Treasury Secretary Muskie proposed that the top tax rate be increased. It would work Jackson thought It would help balance the budget and that could control inflation too. But even if it works economically, it's political suicide. Every politician knows tax hikes aren't popular! An alternative proposal was to have price controls on energy. It won't be enough. Another proposal was to have a wage and price freeze. Nixon tried that, and that didn't go very well, to say the least. Besides, that would go down pretty badly with labor. An added tax on the profits of the oil and gas industry was also proposed. Commerce Secretary Mike Mansfield backed the tax increase, saying the budget needed to be balanced, but also pressed for a broader wage and price freeze. However it appeared Muskie's tax increase was the only workable solution. The budget deficit needed to be reined in, or inflation would balloon out of control. And with Jackson determined to protect his new programs and the social safety net, the only hope was to increase taxes. The increase would be focused on the rich, and the administration prepared the plan. Also, an immediate price freeze would be imposed on oil and gas. On September 1, the plan was agreed upon. Despite the political risks, the alternative was simply unpalatable.
Also, I will enact an increase in the rate of income tax. The deficit is rising, and we need to stop that climb, and balance the budget. After much deliberation, I have come to the conclusion that a tax increase in the top marginal rate is the most viable and most humane solution. The top marginal rate of income tax will be increased from 70% to 75%, and taxes for incomes above $100,000 will go up by 7%. This will give the budget added revenue, and enable us to arrest the rise of the deficit and hold back inflation. I understand it is painful. But there comes a time where we must make sacrifices for the future. Now is that time. And so I call on Congress to pass my budgetary plan, to pass the new Deficit Reduction act that this administration is proposing, so the twin threats of inflation and debt can be defeated. With your help, we can do it..."
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Take my inter-dimensional energy, Scoop! Give us that tax increase on the rich! ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ
Lost Freeway
Banned
It won't matter. Whether Jackson leaves office in 1981 or 1985, everything he did is gonna be tossed right out the window.
Indeed. It's too late to save liberalism, though maybe the healthcare bill will be too popular to be cut.
Some of his legacy will get undone, but he can leave some stuff. LBJ was unpopular and lost the New Deal Coalition but left a lot. And Jackson is unique enough to have better chance than a bog standard liberal. Even if he loses, the replacement will be different and there'll be an impact. More updates coming soon.
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That Scoop Jackson was confronting inflation came as a welcome relief to the American public. His price controls especially gained a positive reception. The problem was his tax hike. Jackson insisted the hike was only for the rich, but it ran directly against the anti-tax mood of the public. Congressional Democrats gave it a poor reception, they did not want to have to campaign on tax increases. The White House knew there would be a backlash, but they failed to anticipate the size of it. A Gallup poll released days later showed nearly 60% of Americans were opposed to the idea of tax cuts, most viewing defense cuts or cuts to social spending as better ways to balance the budget than raising their taxes. Mansfield worriedly saw the polls and told the President he would need to amend the package immediately so that there are tax cuts for the poor and middle class to compensate for the tax cuts for the rich. "That defeats the purpose" Scoop replied "We need to raise as much revenue as we can, and it would be bad policy to go around giving out tax cuts, because the deficit needs to be held down. That'd be fiscal insanity, I mean, no offense, but we need to look at good policy." Mansfield replied, now exasperated "Yes, we can have a policy discussion all we want, But I warn you, if we don't change this, we are going to get a serious shellacking in the midterms, and then minor tax cuts here or there will be small game." Jackson ignored him.
The administration did realize the midterms would produce a less cooperative Congress, and that their super-majorities were about to disappear. Therefore, they sought to push their tax bill, called the Deficit Reduction Act of 1978, through the House and Senate. Congress is many things, but efficient and rapid are not among them. The bill stalled in House committee as Democratic congressmen facing re-election attempted to amend it to make it more palatable. President Jackson publicly called them out on September 20, saying they are "behaving like selfish children." A week later it went onto the House floor, there it passed 271-159, with 5 abstentions. It now headed to the Senate. There, Jesse Helms and Deleware Senator William V Roth mounted a filibuster of the bill. "Now, only seriously deluded man thinks that in times of economic hardship like these, where ordinary Americans are already being crushed, that we need more big government, that we need more taxes!" Helms declared "Sadly, President Jackson is a seriously deluded man." The filibuster was more successful, the first vote on the bill passed 58-42, but not enough to overcome the filibuster, with several Democrats defecting. On the second vote, held days later on October 18, it again fell short, getting only 56 votes. Democrats fled from the sight of a tax hike. Ultimately, the American public's hatred of taxes was higher than their desire to defeat inflation. Mansfield had been proven right, and so the administration set about amending the bill in the hopes of passing it in the next Congress. It was a major defeat for Scoop Jackson, and another gut punch was right on coming.
By the 1978 midterms, the public was turning on President Jackson. A poll on November 1, a week before the midterms, showed Scoop Jackson with a 45% approval rating. In the beginning of November, inflation hit 10.0%. Jackson was comforted that the growth of inflation seemed to have slowed, but the fact of the matter was inflation had spiked to double digits. On a brighter note, unemployment had fallen to 5.1%, and the economy was growing by 6%. But the public wasn't looking on the bright side. Increasing global tensions, rising inflation, rising debt, hard economic times, high taxes and a leadership regarded as out of touch, America hadn't quite gone to disliking Scoop Jackson, but they were close. Judgement day had come for the Democrats, and it didn't look good.
He entered the polling booth. He was the midterm voter, and he didn't have a high view of Scoop Jackson. He means well, and he has done some good. But inflation's still rising, and I don't think he gets it. He just doesn't get it. He entered the polling booth, and looked at his options. Huh, I kinda like that guy, my Congressman. Still, I think we need to send a message. But... He left the polling booth, feeling despondent about the choice he had made and about the alternative. What was lacking was a confidence in America's future, and in the leadership that would lead America into that future. Hopefully, today can be the start of something better. Well, it sure looked like it for the Republicans.
He entered the polling booth. He was the midterm voter, and he didn't have a high view of Scoop Jackson. He means well, and he has done some good. But inflation's still rising, and I don't think he gets it. He just doesn't get it. He entered the polling booth, and looked at his options. Huh, I kinda like that guy, my Congressman. Still, I think we need to send a message. But... He left the polling booth, feeling despondent about the choice he had made and about the alternative. What was lacking was a confidence in America's future, and in the leadership that would lead America into that future. Hopefully, today can be the start of something better. Well, it sure looked like it for the Republicans.
1978 Senate elections[1]
Robert Byrd-Democratic: 56-5
Howard Baker-Republican: 43+5
Ind:1_
1978 House elections[2]
Tip O'Neill-Democratic: 253-39 50.7%
John Rhodes-Republican: 182+39 47.8%
[1] Republicans win Michigan, with incumbent Robert P Griffin beating Carl Levin, and West Virginia, where Arch A Moore beats Jennings Randolph.
[2] TTL, george W Bush wins a Texas congressional seat, while Tom Daschle doesn't win a seat in the House.
Robert Byrd-Democratic: 56-5
Howard Baker-Republican: 43+5
Ind:1_
1978 House elections[2]
Tip O'Neill-Democratic: 253-39 50.7%
John Rhodes-Republican: 182+39 47.8%
[1] Republicans win Michigan, with incumbent Robert P Griffin beating Carl Levin, and West Virginia, where Arch A Moore beats Jennings Randolph.
[2] TTL, george W Bush wins a Texas congressional seat, while Tom Daschle doesn't win a seat in the House.
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I think you mean Democratic.
Those are still huge majorities. Hopefully the impact of Boll Weevils can be lessened.
Fixed it. It's not quite 1994, and Clinton survived that , but it's worse than IOTL and a bad sign.
Arch Moore is, of course, a true criminal in any TL; his corruption was well known by 1988 (when, seeking a 3rd term, he got shellacked by Gaston Caperton) even though he wasn't convicted until 1990.
In 1978 tensions continued to rise abroad. Spending on the military rose dramatically, and Jackson did not relent, but instead intensified, his buildup. Defying both concerns about the deficit and nuclear war, the President continued to build up the military further. His policy gained the support of many Americans, there was a widespread sense America had been losing its strength and they hoped Jackson could restore it. In the 1978 budget liberals attempted to cripple his buildup, but failed to muster enough votes. 1978 saw protests against Jackson's buildup that attracted media attention. Polls showed that a small majority of Americans supported his policy however, partly depending on how the question was worded. Negotiations over arms control remained dead. Tensions calmed in late 1978 temporarily, and due to concerns about the deficit President Jackson was forced to scale back part f his buildup. However military spending was still increasing, and the percentage of Americans that thought defense spending was too low was falling.
Scoop Jackson had throughout his career been a staunch supporter of Israel. As President, it was no different. There were hopes for a Middle East settlement between Israel and Egypt that could end, or at least reduce, the decades-long tensions in the region. Jackson was wary of such a settlement, viewing the Arabs as too much against Israel to reconcile the two sides. However, he decided he would be open to some negotiations between Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, to see where it went. However the result was impasse, with Begin refusing to concede Gaza or the West Bank, and negotiations stalled. Over the next year, the two countries would continue to work for a settlement. However US support declined to lukewarm at best, and hopes of a Middle East settlement fizzled out. Jackson blamed the failure of the Egyptians, saying they were "unreasonable and deluded" while many blamed Jackson himself and the Israelis.
Other foreign policy issues also seized the administration's attention. Africa saw several pressing issues. One was South Africa, and their apartheid system. There, the white minority used brutal force to enforce a system of racial segregation and inequality. Jackson and most Americans held apartheid in contempt. However in the administration there raged a fierce debate about whether to impose sanctions and apartheid, or whether South Africa was too much of an important partner against communism to undermine. Secretary of State Kirkpatrick argued that to undermine South Africa will "enable communism. They may be bad, but they're an important ally against communism, and that's the most important thing." Jackson was less certain, and found it unpalatable to support the repugnant apartheid system. He didn't have free maneuver on this issue, with a strong civil rights contingent in the party pressing for sanctions, and getting support from most Americans. The administration decided to criticize apartheid, with President Jackson declaring "The apartheid system is morally repugnant and wrong, and must come to an end." He refused to sell military equipment to South Africa and intensified economic sanctions, but did not go far as to ban the sale of civilian goods with a potential military use, or spare parts for said military equipment, leading to him being attacked as a hypocrite. However South Africa saw the US action as tough, it helped Prime Minister John Vorster win landslide re-election on anger with the US.
In Rhodesia, the President opposed the reimposition of sanctions. There, a white minority government was fighting off a black rebellion. In 1965 a UN resolution had imposed sanctions on Rhodesia, but in 1971 lawmakers had scrapped several sanctions on Rhodesia. Jackson instead sought to broker a solution in the country. The militant black Patriotic Front wanted immediate majority rule, but Prime Minister Ian Smith wanted a guarantee of white seats in parliament. Smith then established a new government with black ministers but enough white seats to prevent any constitutional changes. The PF denounced the plan and intensified its guerrilla war against the Rhodesian government. Jackson threw his support behind Smith's plan, viewing it as leading to black majority rule, and supported the effort to lift sanctions on Rhodesia.
Another foreign policy crisis the President faced was on the Horn of Africa. In 1974 Somalia had signed a treaty of friendship with the USSR, however three years later a Marxist-leaning military government came to power in Ethiopia and allied with the USSR too. However Somalia and Ethiopia were at odds. In 1977 Somalia invaded Ethiopia to claim the Ogaden region of Ethiopia. The Soviets tried to negotiate a settlement between its two client-states, but Somali dictator Siad Barre refused. The Soviets sided with Ethiopia, prompting Barre to switch sides and ally with the US. The Soviets then sent 12,000 Cuban soldiers and 1,500 Soviet advisers to Ethiopia to bring the conflict to a swift end. Jackson decided to intervene, despite the risks of increasing tensions between the two superpowers. Jackson declared his opposition to the Soviet involvement in the region, saying "I will not allow an unchecked spread of communism in the Horn of Africa. We will defend Somalia against communist aggression." Jackson sent an aircraft carrier to the Horn, and arms assistance to the Somalis, and threatened to use US airpower against the Ethiopians if they invaded Somalia.
The US made an offer to the Soviets. If the Soviets and the Cubans withdrew from the region, the US would no longer support Somalia, though would still threaten the use of airpower if Somalia's territorial integrity was threatened. Tensions rose in the region as the Soviets threatened to send more support to the Ethiopians. On February 25, 1978, the deal was reached, and the Cubans withdrew their presence from the Horn, and the US stopped supplying arms to the Somalis. The agreement was regarded as a triumph for the President, who ensured the Soviets could not have an active presence on the Horn, however some regarded his abandoning of Somalia as a fallback and betrayal. Now the superpowers had withdrawn from the fight. The Ethiopian forces attacked the town of Jijiga, but failed to get an easy capture. After weeks of protracted fighting, Jijiga fell to the Ethiopians. After a few more months of fighting most of the Ogaden was back in Ethiopian hands. The region saw low-level conflict and border clashes for years, but the war was widely regarded as a failure for Somalia, but not destabilizing to the Barre leadership.
Other foreign policy issues also seized the administration's attention. Africa saw several pressing issues. One was South Africa, and their apartheid system. There, the white minority used brutal force to enforce a system of racial segregation and inequality. Jackson and most Americans held apartheid in contempt. However in the administration there raged a fierce debate about whether to impose sanctions and apartheid, or whether South Africa was too much of an important partner against communism to undermine. Secretary of State Kirkpatrick argued that to undermine South Africa will "enable communism. They may be bad, but they're an important ally against communism, and that's the most important thing." Jackson was less certain, and found it unpalatable to support the repugnant apartheid system. He didn't have free maneuver on this issue, with a strong civil rights contingent in the party pressing for sanctions, and getting support from most Americans. The administration decided to criticize apartheid, with President Jackson declaring "The apartheid system is morally repugnant and wrong, and must come to an end." He refused to sell military equipment to South Africa and intensified economic sanctions, but did not go far as to ban the sale of civilian goods with a potential military use, or spare parts for said military equipment, leading to him being attacked as a hypocrite. However South Africa saw the US action as tough, it helped Prime Minister John Vorster win landslide re-election on anger with the US.
In Rhodesia, the President opposed the reimposition of sanctions. There, a white minority government was fighting off a black rebellion. In 1965 a UN resolution had imposed sanctions on Rhodesia, but in 1971 lawmakers had scrapped several sanctions on Rhodesia. Jackson instead sought to broker a solution in the country. The militant black Patriotic Front wanted immediate majority rule, but Prime Minister Ian Smith wanted a guarantee of white seats in parliament. Smith then established a new government with black ministers but enough white seats to prevent any constitutional changes. The PF denounced the plan and intensified its guerrilla war against the Rhodesian government. Jackson threw his support behind Smith's plan, viewing it as leading to black majority rule, and supported the effort to lift sanctions on Rhodesia.
The US made an offer to the Soviets. If the Soviets and the Cubans withdrew from the region, the US would no longer support Somalia, though would still threaten the use of airpower if Somalia's territorial integrity was threatened. Tensions rose in the region as the Soviets threatened to send more support to the Ethiopians. On February 25, 1978, the deal was reached, and the Cubans withdrew their presence from the Horn, and the US stopped supplying arms to the Somalis. The agreement was regarded as a triumph for the President, who ensured the Soviets could not have an active presence on the Horn, however some regarded his abandoning of Somalia as a fallback and betrayal. Now the superpowers had withdrawn from the fight. The Ethiopian forces attacked the town of Jijiga, but failed to get an easy capture. After weeks of protracted fighting, Jijiga fell to the Ethiopians. After a few more months of fighting most of the Ogaden was back in Ethiopian hands. The region saw low-level conflict and border clashes for years, but the war was widely regarded as a failure for Somalia, but not destabilizing to the Barre leadership.
In 1978 tensions continued to rise abroad. Spending on the military rose dramatically, and Jackson did not relent, but instead intensified, his buildup. Defying both concerns about the deficit and nuclear war, the President continued to build up the military further. His policy gained the support of many Americans, there was a widespread sense America had been losing its strength and they hoped Jackson could restore it. In the 1978 budget liberals attempted to cripple his buildup, but failed to muster enough votes. 1978 saw protests against Jackson's buildup that attracted media attention. Polls showed that a small majority of Americans supported his policy however, partly depending on how the question was worded. Negotiations over arms control remained dead. Tensions calmed in late 1978 temporarily, and due to concerns about the deficit President Jackson was forced to scale back part f his buildup. However military spending was still increasing, and the percentage of Americans that thought defense spending was too low was falling.
Scoop Jackson had throughout his career been a staunch supporter of Israel. As President, it was no different. There were hopes for a Middle East settlement between Israel and Egypt that could end, or at least reduce, the decades-long tensions in the region. Jackson was wary of such a settlement, viewing the Arabs as too much against Israel to reconcile the two sides. However, he decided he would be open to some negotiations between Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, to see where it went. However the result was impasse, with Begin refusing to concede Gaza or the West Bank, and negotiations stalled. Over the next year, the two countries would continue to work for a settlement. However US support declined to lukewarm at best, and hopes of a Middle East settlement fizzled out. Jackson blamed the failure of the Egyptians, saying they were "unreasonable and deluded" while many blamed Jackson himself and the Israelis.
Other foreign policy issues also seized the administration's attention. Africa saw several pressing issues. One was South Africa, and their apartheid system. There, the white minority used brutal force to enforce a system of racial segregation and inequality. Jackson and most Americans held apartheid in contempt. However in the administration there raged a fierce debate about whether to impose sanctions and apartheid, or whether South Africa was too much of an important partner against communism to undermine. Secretary of State Kirkpatrick argued that to undermine South Africa will "enable communism. They may be bad, but they're an important ally against communism, and that's the most important thing." Jackson was less certain, and found it unpalatable to support the repugnant apartheid system. He didn't have free maneuver on this issue, with a strong civil rights contingent in the party pressing for sanctions, and getting support from most Americans. The administration decided to criticize apartheid, with President Jackson declaring "The apartheid system is morally repugnant and wrong, and must come to an end." He refused to sell military equipment to South Africa and intensified economic sanctions, but did not go far as to ban the sale of civilian goods with a potential military use, or spare parts for said military equipment, leading to him being attacked as a hypocrite. However South Africa saw the US action as tough, it helped Prime Minister John Vorster win landslide re-election on anger with the US.
In Rhodesia, the President opposed the reimposition of sanctions. There, a white minority government was fighting off a black rebellion. In 1965 a UN resolution had imposed sanctions on Rhodesia, but in 1971 lawmakers had scrapped several sanctions on Rhodesia. Jackson instead sought to broker a solution in the country. The militant black Patriotic Front wanted immediate majority rule, but Prime Minister Ian Smith wanted a guarantee of white seats in parliament. Smith then established a new government with black ministers but enough white seats to prevent any constitutional changes. The PF denounced the plan and intensified its guerrilla war against the Rhodesian government. Jackson threw his support behind Smith's plan, viewing it as leading to black majority rule, and supported the effort to lift sanctions on Rhodesia.
Another foreign policy crisis the President faced was on the Horn of Africa. In 1974 Somalia had signed a treaty of friendship with the USSR, however three years later a Marxist-leaning military government came to power in Ethiopia and allied with the USSR too. However Somalia and Ethiopia were at odds. In 1977 Somalia invaded Ethiopia to claim the Ogaden region of Ethiopia. The Soviets tried to negotiate a settlement between its two client-states, but Somali dictator Siad Barre refused. The Soviets sided with Ethiopia, prompting Barre to switch sides and ally with the US. The Soviets then sent 12,000 Cuban soldiers and 1,500 Soviet advisers to Ethiopia to bring the conflict to a swift end. Jackson decided to intervene, despite the risks of increasing tensions between the two superpowers. Jackson declared his opposition to the Soviet involvement in the region, saying "I will not allow an unchecked spread of communism in the Horn of Africa. We will defend Somalia against communist aggression." Jackson sent an aircraft carrier to the Horn, and arms assistance to the Somalis, and threatened to use US airpower against the Ethiopians if they invaded Somalia.
The US made an offer to the Soviets. If the Soviets and the Cubans withdrew from the region, the US would no longer support Somalia, though would still threaten the use of airpower if Somalia's territorial integrity was threatened. Tensions rose in the region as the Soviets threatened to send more support to the Ethiopians. On February 25, 1978, the deal was reached, and the Cubans withdrew their presence from the Horn, and the US stopped supplying arms to the Somalis. The agreement was regarded as a triumph for the President, who ensured the Soviets could not have an active presence on the Horn, however some regarded his abandoning of Somalia as a fallback and betrayal. Now the superpowers had withdrawn from the fight. The Ethiopian forces attacked the town of Jijiga, but failed to get an easy capture. After weeks of protracted fighting, Jijiga fell to the Ethiopians. After a few more months of fighting most of the Ogaden was back in Ethiopian hands. The region saw low-level conflict and border clashes for years, but the war was widely regarded as a failure for Somalia, but not destabilizing to the Barre leadership.
A Cuba in Somalia...
Tepid, but for what he has to deal with, that's still good. Maybe the earlier imposition of sanctions will allow apartheid to peter out earlier.