A New Deal for America: An Alternate History of the Late 1970s & Beyond
- Thread starter Pericles
- Start date
Indeed. Hopefully I'll be able to do an update later but might not. If not there's tomorrow.
I appreciate (in a literary sense!) making Doug "The Dumbest Fucking Guy on the Planet" Feith the Secretary of Defense, given that he was a close ally of Scoop's IOTL as well, but I can't imagine the Senate approving a 23-year-old fresh out of college. Maybe he could start off as the Deputy SecDef a la Condoleeza Rice and then get elevated after a few years?
Also: Jesus Christ, I had no idea how many of the worst villains of the '80s were former Scoop staffers. Elliott Abrams??!?
Maybe the Feith appointment is problematic. I was thinking Ben Wattenberg, would he work better?
President Jackson's main focus over the summer was the battle for the energy bill. The stimulus passed easily, leaving energy as the key issue. The energy lobby largely opposed the bill. The energy bill struggled to pass Congress, with Republicans opposed to it, viewing it as too much taxation and spending. Opponents sought to choke it in committee. Jackson complained 'Congress is the graveyard of many great dreams." However the administration had strong links with Congress, and the Democratic leadership rammed the bill through. The bill passed the House. Tip O'Neill, Speaker of the House, was loyal to the President, and ensured the bill wasn't ripped apart by competing interests. The bill went to the Senate now, where procedural rules could easily doom it. The bill's fate largely rested in the hands of powerful committee chairman, Russell Long of Louisiana.
Jackson, while successful at passing his agenda, struggled to communicate it to the American people. Liberal measures were being proposed, but the administration was not connecting them under one theme. Jackson, despite some efforts, still struggled in front of cameras, and was unable to be charismatic and present a strong message to the public. Staffers complained that Jackson was inarticulate and routinely delivered long, boring and convoluted statements. Chief of Staff Perle grumbled "What we're proposing looks and sounds good, but it's no good on its own, and the President needs to tie it together." Jackson did get better over time, and in October 1977 he and numerous lawmakers declared the launch of his "New Liberalism" but conservatives were quick to declare there was nothing new about Jackson's liberalism. President Jackson ended the year with an approval rating of 60%, a mildly good number.
The economy grew strongly in 1977. The first quarter saw nearly 5% growth, this leapt to 8% in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. By the end of the year the economy was not doing so well. Growth in the fourth quarter was 0.7%. Unemployment shrunk throughout 1977. The Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act was pushed through Congress at the end of the year, and signed into law on December 12. The act's goal was that by 1983, unemployment rates should be not more than 3% for persons aged 20 or over and not more than 4% for persons aged 16 or over, and it used Keynesian economics to get to that goal. Despite bitter conservative resistance, and the determined opposition of the business community, which saw it as inflationary, the bill passed Congress. Liberal constituencies, wary of Jackson's hawkish foreign policy, were at least somewhat reassured by his solidly liberal domestic policy. By the end of the year unemployment had shrunk from 7.5% to 6.0%. However inflation had jumped from 5% to 7% and over. Economists predicted the economy would continue to grow at a steady rate, and unemployment would continue to shrink, but unless the administration acted this growth could be jeopardized by inflation, which was rising fast. Some analysts even predicted double-digit inflation, many predicted inflation would continue to be high well into the 1980s. However measures to attack inflation could increase unemployment and even cause a recession, if they were too harsh. Jackson decided, for now, to take the liberal course of action.
Senator Russell Long was reluctant to support the energy bill in its current form. Conservatives and Republicans fought to amend the bill to make it more friendly to the oil industry. Perle's efforts to lobby Senators flopped, with Long calling him a "stuck up little s***" and demanding the President "come down here himself and give us some respect." The bill in danger, the administration geared for action. Long and Jackson met in the Oval, Long demanded amendments, Jackson refused. The American energy Act lacked strong public support, so Jackson was in a bad position. The President ultimately won over Long and wavering lawmakers, perhaps some pork helped in that matter. The American energy Act passed the Senate in October, the conference committee now sought to iron out the differences. Long joined Jackson's team and opposition was stifled. On November 13, 1977, President Jackson signed the American Energy Act into law. And so his first year came to a close. On the domestic front, he had achieved successes. 1978 had big ticket items such as universal healthcare potentially on the agenda, and the President was certain to face tough challenges, home and abroad.
The economy grew strongly in 1977. The first quarter saw nearly 5% growth, this leapt to 8% in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. By the end of the year the economy was not doing so well. Growth in the fourth quarter was 0.7%. Unemployment shrunk throughout 1977. The Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act was pushed through Congress at the end of the year, and signed into law on December 12. The act's goal was that by 1983, unemployment rates should be not more than 3% for persons aged 20 or over and not more than 4% for persons aged 16 or over, and it used Keynesian economics to get to that goal. Despite bitter conservative resistance, and the determined opposition of the business community, which saw it as inflationary, the bill passed Congress. Liberal constituencies, wary of Jackson's hawkish foreign policy, were at least somewhat reassured by his solidly liberal domestic policy. By the end of the year unemployment had shrunk from 7.5% to 6.0%. However inflation had jumped from 5% to 7% and over. Economists predicted the economy would continue to grow at a steady rate, and unemployment would continue to shrink, but unless the administration acted this growth could be jeopardized by inflation, which was rising fast. Some analysts even predicted double-digit inflation, many predicted inflation would continue to be high well into the 1980s. However measures to attack inflation could increase unemployment and even cause a recession, if they were too harsh. Jackson decided, for now, to take the liberal course of action.
With a POD like this, Callaghan could hold an election in 1978, win a slim majority, and Thatcher never becomes PM.
Anyways, I'd expect Jackson's economic policy to work well. However, he needs to lay off the inflation and stick to increasing government spending. If he does that, he can win in 1980, and the times from there are easy. In foreign policy, I'd feel he'd be a better president than Carter. A hawk was necessary in the troubles of the late 70s IMO.
So he will be a two termer but he'll die in his second term.
Probably a constructive engagement type relationship, where the US, while still supporting South Africa, will criticize Apartheid and encourage reforms to dismantle it. Except, since Jackson has a civil rights faction of his party, he'll have to bow to them, and have some sanctions, if his presidency lasts long enough.
Whip Inflation Now!
(btw Pericles, I think this is a great idea for a TL. Should have said that already!)
Thank you. Maybe Jackson will find a solution to it, survive it or be undone by it.
Just read this TL, solid work! It's always interesting to read about a political figure like Jackson who's actions and stances would cause me to swing almost daily between loving him and despising him.
Rumors of a 1980 primary challenge to the President arose. McGovern, Jerry Brown, and Ted Kennedy were all speculated as possible candidates. A Ted Kennedy challenge would be most formidable, though after he had declined yo run in 1972 and 1976, many thought the Chappaquiddick scandal had killed his presidential hopes for good. Still, Kennedy retained widespread support among the base. As frustration arose with Jackson's inability to tackle inflation and his foreign policy, a Gallup poll showed 42% Kennedy, 42% Jackson for the 1980 Democratic primary. Jackson's support was declining, and his approval ratings hovered around 50%. Jackson had not exhausted his capital yet, but liberals and the country were beginning to lose patience with him.
