A New Beginning - Our 1992 Russian Federation
- Thread starter panpiotr
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Yea Donald would be a person that would probably do this deal. Under his term Venezuela also happened and tensions with Iran returned. He will probably also let us keep Syria under condition that we force it to normalize ties with Israel.
Bit leaving SCO together with our EEU/CIS members, belt and road initiative and maybe BRICS would be on the table. Remember if we leave India won't stick for long, so we may arrange something with them.
So yea symbolic sanctions by Obama and Merkel paired with Trump offering us a deal that we cannot refuse.
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We will make sure that we help win Donald presidential elections in 2016, on the condition that USA and Russia make deal on our terms in 2017.
Problem is that we cannot get better terms, Trump still has Senate and Congress to answer to and despite everything i don't think he will sell USA interests, or he'll get impeached at which point we really will feel the burn.
We cannot get better terms and just promising to not side with China won't cut it. Also im quite doubtfull about Russia playing a role in Trump elections given who was his opponent. The way i see it we would need to make concessions to avoid this being a wank.
This generally means taking steps i said USA would potentially ask of us because let's be honest, military industrial complex , Pentagon, CIA and leadership of both Republican and Democratic parties will be involved in this, otherwise we won't be able to get this deal through and Trump will be forced to act tough on us and impose harsher sanctions, ir go to jail as we aren't that powerful to control the USA.
You cannot get Ukraine consequence free from the West without giving them something tangible in return. Iran, Venezuela, SCO, BRICS, Syrian forgein policy are all things we will need to sacrifice.
They can even sanctions CIS/CSTO/EEU members to make their lives harder and to give push to these countries to make better friends. Basically point is they have a lot of leverage to get us to make concessions and this is the type of opportunity they would wait, either they break us from inside out, or they force us to realign.
We cannot have our cake and eat it. Otherwise this wouldn't be a choice at all and this vote wouldn't have any point at which point we can just say that 90% of Ukrainians would vote to join Union out of their own free will (which isn't true) so we can avoidall this.
Im mean you are free to do what you want, but i don't understand the point of this vote if West will simply let us have our way, then we may as well just say Ukraine voted to join democraticaly and avoid consequences alltogether. Though at that point it will obviously be a wank.
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Maybe also build the helicopter carrier since with the length of Russia coastline having a helicopter carrier would be helpful
I know neutrality is not an option but dumping china is kinda a shame, since the best for Russia I would say is to play both side
Leaving BRICS would be a real shame, since it would mean bowing to the west and after what lucka did kinda a shame
Just copy some of stuff that Putin do, I mean having Gasprom sponsored some of the biggest sport team is kinda a great way to make Russia image more positive have also Russia copied some of the Saudi and gulf state stuff in sports and entertainment. I mean if the majority of the public could be sold about the positive image of Russia, it would be easier for the politicians to make some backroom deal with them
Hell if you really want to go the insane option have Russia fund some major Hollywood production and then have that production either have a Russian acting it or show the greatness that Russia have, if you wanted to use this Russia maybe also copy what China do and banned any movie that have a message they didn’t like
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Gaúcho Maldito
Banned
Even considering Kriss's arguments, I'll 100% support option D.
1. We need Ukraine's resources, population and sea access to become a superpower.
2. There's no clear relations between how far we annex and sanctions. Taking the whole thing head on will send a strong message to the West and settle the issue in a way that may even deter sanctions even in the short term. Why damage your economy for a lost cause? Besides, any sanctions applied will be dropped eventually as soon as there's peace. Russia isn't North Korea, it won't be chooked with sanctions even in the minds of CIA analysts, Europe needs the Union State even more than OTL.
3. We won't be able to do it later. Ukraine's nationhood is new, roughly twenty years old. If we let it thrive for some more decades, it may become too ingrained to integrate later even with a puppet government. It's now or never.
4. We won't need to kill hundreds of thousands of people. It doesn't matter how much money the CIA sends in, Ukraine isn't suitable for guerrila warfare.
5. The economic output from annexing Ukraine in a quick coup de grace without attrition warfare will greatly exceed the cost of supressing the nationalists, even more in the long term.
6. Taking Ukraine will significantly increase our influence in the world grain markets. It's ridiculous to think this will make Russia isolated. It will instead give us more influence in the Third World and even against China.
7. Ukraine as a puppet state can be snatched away from us very quickly if the Union State experiences a moment of weakness latter down the road, which would be disastrous. It will always be a liability.
8. Ukraine has nothing to do with Afghanistan, this is absurd. Ukrainians are slavic, christians, mostly Russian speaking and urban, while Afghans are Pashtun, Muslim, agrarian and have their own languages. The geography is different too, one country being comprised of plains and the other being mountainous. Soviet logistics in Afghanistan and American logistics in Vietnam faced significant limitations, which won't happen here considering Ukraine is side by side with the Russian heartland.
The idea that Russia would face crippling insurgencies after subduing the main Ukrainian force is mainly western propaganda. Kriss paralels with Afghanistan and Vietnam are completely false, the more concrete parallel would be to the American Civil War, which saw post-war turbulence and revolts but also conciliation in the long term. Why? Because they are essentially the same people and have the same history. There's a very big gap between a reunification war of two brotherly nations (American Civil War) and invading a far away alien nation to puppet them like the US did in Vietnam and the Soviets did in Afghanistan.
9. All in all, I'll rather regret annexing Ukraine and dealing with the problems that may come from it than to regret NOT annexing it.
10. Option C is very boring and even unrealistic considering real Russian leadership aspirations. So why take it?
@panpiotr
1. We need Ukraine's resources, population and sea access to become a superpower.
2. There's no clear relations between how far we annex and sanctions. Taking the whole thing head on will send a strong message to the West and settle the issue in a way that may even deter sanctions even in the short term. Why damage your economy for a lost cause? Besides, any sanctions applied will be dropped eventually as soon as there's peace. Russia isn't North Korea, it won't be chooked with sanctions even in the minds of CIA analysts, Europe needs the Union State even more than OTL.
3. We won't be able to do it later. Ukraine's nationhood is new, roughly twenty years old. If we let it thrive for some more decades, it may become too ingrained to integrate later even with a puppet government. It's now or never.
4. We won't need to kill hundreds of thousands of people. It doesn't matter how much money the CIA sends in, Ukraine isn't suitable for guerrila warfare.
5. The economic output from annexing Ukraine in a quick coup de grace without attrition warfare will greatly exceed the cost of supressing the nationalists, even more in the long term.
6. Taking Ukraine will significantly increase our influence in the world grain markets. It's ridiculous to think this will make Russia isolated. It will instead give us more influence in the Third World and even against China.
7. Ukraine as a puppet state can be snatched away from us very quickly if the Union State experiences a moment of weakness latter down the road, which would be disastrous. It will always be a liability.
8. Ukraine has nothing to do with Afghanistan, this is absurd. Ukrainians are slavic, christians, mostly Russian speaking and urban, while Afghans are Pashtun, Muslim, agrarian and have their own languages. The geography is different too, one country being comprised of plains and the other being mountainous. Soviet logistics in Afghanistan and American logistics in Vietnam faced significant limitations, which won't happen here considering Ukraine is side by side with the Russian heartland.
The idea that Russia would face crippling insurgencies after subduing the main Ukrainian force is mainly western propaganda. Kriss paralels with Afghanistan and Vietnam are completely false, the more concrete parallel would be to the American Civil War, which saw post-war turbulence and revolts but also conciliation in the long term. Why? Because they are essentially the same people and have the same history. There's a very big gap between a reunification war of two brotherly nations (American Civil War) and invading a far away alien nation to puppet them like the US did in Vietnam and the Soviets did in Afghanistan.
9. All in all, I'll rather regret annexing Ukraine and dealing with the problems that may come from it than to regret NOT annexing it.
10. Option C is very boring and even unrealistic considering real Russian leadership aspirations. So why take it?
@panpiotr
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Gaúcho Maldito
Banned
11. Look at how nice the map looks: The Virgin Puppet State X the Chad Full Annexation
Gaúcho Maldito
Banned
If I can give a course of action that will spice the story while letting Russia keep most of Ukraine, then maybe we could have Russia allow or be forced to allow the very West of Ukraine, the provinces around Lviv, to become an independent state (Galicia), maybe even joining the EU and NATO.
But with at least everything from the Kiev to Odessa line being annexed into the Union State. This way Russia won't face serious resistance.
Call it option E. It would be a good compromise. @panpiotr
But with at least everything from the Kiev to Odessa line being annexed into the Union State. This way Russia won't face serious resistance.
Call it option E. It would be a good compromise. @panpiotr
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Gaúcho Maldito
Banned
This makes it even more clear, if there's not going to be a significant pushback by the West, there's no single reason to not take the whole thing.
How to say you deny the reality of Ukrainian nationhood without saying you are.
A sense of Ukrainianness is very old.
A sense of Ukraine as a distinct state in its own right separate from Russia is different, having came and gone.
Then we should simply avoid taking the deal.
I'm really doubtfull of that as we can achieve all these things peacefully. We already have rising population and wast resources and we achieved all that because of smart and quiet policies that were aimed at using what we have and economic prosperity, not thanks to Imperialism that destroyed Russia twice if i may say.
In any realistic setting West will embargo Russia.
Or we could avoid entire mess and allow them to chose their own government. Call it reasonable option.
As for your proposal, that's terrible option as we now have independent Ukrainian state that will agitate Ukrainian population within the Union. If you advocate for annexation then you need to go all the way, or go for partial annexation of pro Russian area's as Central Ukraine will generally join its Western counterpart for a time. Any annexation that divides Ukrainian population is a bad one.
I would say that annexation of Ukraine without any real consequences is unrealistic, not to mention this is the time where we are entering our economic boom. This action would basically end that.
But generally my arguments were based on the fact that in normal circumstances West would be united and would have sanctioned us, but given that that somehow won't happen i cannot afford to argue against annexation, it's just that it's heavily unrealistic. But if we can keep our economic boom and get Ukraine i won't bother to argue against the annexation.
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Gaúcho Maldito
Banned
I fully agree that complete annexation is better than partial for Russia, I just added that scenario as a narrative compromise if the author didn't want to solve this as clear cut as taking the whole country for story purposes.
We should just take the deal then refrain from honouring it fully when it doesn't suits us, just like the Americans did it with their promisses of no NATO membership for the Baltics. To be clear, we shouldn't antagonize China, but just let them take the bulk of American attention from now. We'll need time to digest Ukraine and an understanding with Washington will come handy into that.
There's no need to leave BRICS.
So do you support option D now that the author said the West won't economically retaliate?
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There is no need to get completely align with West . We can give our friend Trump some very strong verbal assurances and maybe some wrist slap to China but no treaty on paper or getting out of BRICS,SCO . @Gaúcho Maldito compromise option E looks best to overcome this impasse .
Ehh...we are still in 2007...couldn't the Russian economy could growth enough by the time 2013 comes around...a variation of option D (but without the bloodshed)...is feasible...
But in any case...we should be making sure we gained enough leverage that the West not be bothered (or even, if the Ukrainian goverment is as corrupt as OTL, even encouraged the integration to the CSTO as part of a drive to eliminate the corruption..) (kinda /s...but seriously the question is just out of the blue and quite sudden)
But in any case...we should be making sure we gained enough leverage that the West not be bothered (or even, if the Ukrainian goverment is as corrupt as OTL, even encouraged the integration to the CSTO as part of a drive to eliminate the corruption..) (kinda /s...but seriously the question is just out of the blue and quite sudden)