True, true. What of relations with Brazil? Think we could see a 'Slave Bloc' form?
Well that's what I speculated on in the first reply. Perhaps relations would be good with certain segments of Brazilian society and with some in Brazil's government. However the CSA faces a number of problems in forming any kind of long lasting slave bloc with Brazil:
- Emperor Pedro II of Brazil (who began his reign in 1831) was an abolitionist (although in the late 1860s and in the 1870s he faced a fair amount of resistance to his abolitionist stance)
- By the 1880s slavery was apparently in decline in the north of Brazil (where it was strongest up until that point) as the region attracted more European immigrants (and thus more free labour).
- Britain was very keen on ending slavery in Brazil in order to ensure that the sugar produced via slavery in Brazil did not out-compete with the sugar produced via free (and indentured) labour in the British West Indies
- By the 1880s slaves declined as a percentage of the population (from 29% in 1823 to less than 5% in 1887) not only because of new European immigrants but because of the lack of new slaves with the end of the slave trade in 1850.
- The north and northeast had been weakened in
various revolts in the
1830s-1840s and were probably unlikely to pull a "CSA" on the Empire of Brazil and successfully secede.
But maybe the CSA might get lucky and encourage the overthrow of Pedro II (perhaps establishing an earlier republic?) which could result in a fairly friendly Brazil from the 1860s to 1880s after which Brazil might still be fairly friendly even if it abandons slavery as uneconomical by the late 1880s to early 1890s.
EDIT: Actually, perhaps slavery in Brazil might last a bit longer than it did in OTL if Pedro II's efforts in 1867 onwards fail. After all the slave population definitely declined as a result of his getting a law passed in 1867 or thereabouts which freed all children born into slavery. So it basically freed the future generation of slaves and ensured that only the adult slaves would remain in slavery for the foreseeable future. Even without any other changes it would have meant that the slave population would have dropped to zero within maybe 60 years (less considering he also got a law passed in the 1870s which freed all slaves over the age of 60).
So since we are already discussing a CSA uber-wank (with Kentucky, New Mexico Territory, Missouri, West(ern) Virginia, Maryland (!) and even Delware (!!!) in the mix) we may as well presume other things go right for them. So they manage to influence (pay off) enough people in the Brazilian government that the law freeing child slaves doesn't get passed. Then in the 1870s after more attempts to free the slaves, Pedro II is overthrown and a republic is declared.
From here we get the interesting (and scary) prospect of a CSA-Brazilian alliance of sorts (though alliance is probably too strong a term). Any half-decent relations with Britain are now gone as the British now see a slave bloc straddling their West Indian holdings AND competing with their West Indian sugar, Egyptian cotton and Indian cotton. France may come to some sort of "accommodation" with the CSA so that it can continue to prop up its puppet in Mexico. Anglo-French relations are probably strained until Nappy the Third is overthrown himself as a result of a habit of over-reaching himself and getting burned as a result(in Mexico, Luxembourg and Franco-Prussian War, etc). Maybe it won't be 1870, but probably before 1880 France will become a republic again and abandon the Mexican adventure and the CSA and have good relations with the UK again.
After 1880 though things would start to get dicey for any slave bloc - in Brazil, immigrant labour would probably still begin to outcompete slave labour but due to the higher proportion of the population being slaves it won't be the same as in OTL and there would be less economic pressure to abandon slavery. In the CSA, things will begin to tank in around 1910-1920 with the Boll Weevil making its way through the cotton crop. This might cause widespread slavery in the CSA to become uneconomical (note i said
widespread slavery, not slavery in total). There would probably be more slaves than are needed and slave prices could well collapse (ruining many of the slave owners since a lot of their "property" is now worthless or cheap). Some may abandon slavery for other ventures, others may move out of cotton farming and into other lines of work such as mining (and slaves can be used for industrial labour) and others would move into different kinds of crops. Perhaps we see scattered incidents of some cotton farms just being abandoned and the slaves becoming de facto free or de jure free. We might also see some Confederates attempting to make a new life in the only other place on earth where they could engage in farming with slaves: Brazil. This would be interesting as if they attempted to move to Brazil with their slaves they would essentially be transporting slaves on the high seas. But they might not be in violation of the (by then nearly universal) slave trade bans (which were in effect for the CSA and Brazil too by the 1860s) since they would technically be transporting people who had just been enslaved for the purpose of selling them. These would be slaves that they already owned and which they were carry with them not to sell (at least not initially) but to continue using. Plus they would be transporting them on Confederate flagged ships (which would essentially observe CSA law). I could well imagine a major diplomatic incident or two developing as some Confederate farmer attempted to go to Brazil with his slaves to start afresh only to be interdicted by the Royal Navy in the Caribbean.....It probably won't develop into a major war though as the issue would probably be settled legally with the practice either being considered as slave trading or not (and if not the British might then institute laws to cover this perceived loophole and pressure other countries to sign on to treaties closing this loophole as well).
Back in the USA there would probably be an increased drive to re-settle free blacks in Liberia and Haiti as the blacks would probably be increasingly blamed for splitting the nation in two. Ironically in the 1910s-1920s the CSA might also see a small scale effort to re-settle abandoned and freed slaves (the excess slaves after the Boll Weevil effect), but probably in Liberia rather than Haiti (the thinking would probably go that the farther away tjeu were resettled from the CSA, the better).
