A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

Ryan

Donor
I wonder how much longer the Entente offensive can go on for; don't forget that the Entente has been on a continuous offensive for nearly 3 months and has pushed the Germans back from North eastern France, through the benelux and into Germany.
 
Considering the ground has been fought over, how long will it take for the Entante to rebuild the infrastructure needed for a next offensive? Also, does Entante have dedicated units to do the rebuilding, or are they going to be using their regular units engineer detachments, as well as regular infantry and POW for some simpler tasks, such as filling in shell holes and other manual labour?

Also, even if there is no offensives planned by the Entante for now, losses are still going to start to pile up, especially on the German side once frontlines stabilize. Once Entante brings up its artillery, and all the necessary logistics are figured out, they are certainly going to send a few shells at the German lines each day. That may not sound like much, but considering the sheer number of artillery tubes availlable to them, that number may not be inconsiderable in the long term.

Lastly, have there been any further changes in the organization of the Entante units, or is one perhaps planned for, once the lessons of this offensive are absorbed.

Excellent TL, keep doing the good worrk.
 
28th October 1941

Shortly after 1am, Warrant Officer Jozef Gabčík and Staff Sergeant Karel Svoboda are parachuted into Czechoslovakia by a French NC-2233 bomber, landing around 35km West of Prague after their aircraft experienced some navigational difficulties.

I take it operation Anthropoid is a go TTL. Also its interesting to see how butterflies have effected the operation with Svoboda not receiving his head injury.
 
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I take it operation Anthropoid is a go TTL. Also its interesting to see how butterflies have effected the operation with Svoboda not receiving his head injury.
My primary question is whether a similar Gestapo report as was done after Anthropoid would focus on Ledice or not...
 
Kienitz had to know he was a dead man walking when he ordered that withdrawal. The four days before his arrest must have been hell for him.
Maybe, although the Nazis so far have only really been punishing surrender or attempts to overthrow the party. Things have just ratcheted up a notch.

Troops marched from Osnabrück to the Ruhr?

That is one hell of a march just to be thrown into a hopeless position with no real frontline, and sounds like it couldn't have happened to nicer guys (also it seems like a bit of an Allied mistake or just slowness; the Dortmund-Ems canal should be sufficiently close to lock down Osnabrück with supplies running down that canal from the Ems; but clearing it may just be not-done-yet).
I picked Osnabruck as it's the closest I could be reasonably sure of getting a train to when you're coming across from Poland and eastern Germany. There will be some supplies getting past that, but priority will be given to heavy stuff like food and fuel - men can walk.

Sure, that would work but I have a hard time seeing a life-long professional officer intentionally "losing" and getting their men captured (even if it might be a better course of action in the long run). A lot of people in his position care more about their legacy and reputation than about their lives. Your way, he's remembered as either incompetent or (after the war and the truth gets out) a coward. The way he did it, he's remembered as a brave, honorable commander that did his duty and valued his men's lives above his own.
Professionalism dies very hard in a lifelong soldier.

14 October 1941 "The availability of Rhine barges in the Netherlands means that much of the supply of fuel and ammunition will be water-borne. This will be a separate operation (Zeeleeuw) under the command of the Royal Netherlands Navy. Over 1,000 barges have been assembled for this operation, many of them being fitted with engines for the first time ever."

What were the losses like for the barge force in Zeeleeuw ?

If they are in good condition, and can build some sort of depot at Duisburg, then it should be possible to keep Alexander's men going forward.
Pretty modest, so the capacity is certainly there. The main issue is keeping the waterways clear, infrastructure to unload them, etc. plus the fact that the British troops have been doing a lot of fighting in cr*p weather and frankly need a break. Brooke has no intention of pushing further until the spring unless external events compel him to. The Ruhr is a big prize and he's across the Rhine, but there isn't a lot else of major significance until he reaches the Elbe or arguably Berlin. The French might push a bit further to take the Saar (leaving the Germans with very little coal and a cold winter coming), but that's all they've got planned before the spring. The Entente are very casualty-averse and in no tearing hurry to win the war, now that the result is clear to everyone.

Considering the ground has been fought over, how long will it take for the Entante to rebuild the infrastructure needed for a next offensive? Also, does Entante have dedicated units to do the rebuilding, or are they going to be using their regular units engineer detachments, as well as regular infantry and POW for some simpler tasks, such as filling in shell holes and other manual labour?
There will be a number of specialist infrastructure units in the Royal Engineers doing the infrastructure work (I actually used to be in one for a while), composed of people who are e.g. railwaymen in their civilian jobs.

I take it operation Anthropoid is a go TTL. Also its interesting to see how butterflies have effected the operation with Svoboda not receiving his head injury.
Yep.

My primary question is whether a similar Gestapo report as was done after Anthropoid would focus on Ledice or not...
Unlikely - the butterflies will scramble all that up, I suspect, given how large the Czech forces still fighting will be compared to OTL.
 
Hmm, now that you mention the loss of the Saar being impending too... I wonder if this whole winter pause might be brilliant, by allowing the German troops to properly process how badly they are losing, or if the Nazis might be able to spin it as the Allies being unable to do more?

And in the latter case, if they might start some Wacht am Rhein-esque attack through the snows?
 
Hmm, now that you mention the loss of the Saar being impending too... I wonder if this whole winter pause might be brilliant, by allowing the German troops to properly process how badly they are losing, or if the Nazis might be able to spin it as the Allies being unable to do more?

And in the latter case, if they might start some Wacht am Rhein-esque attack through the snows?

I certainly could see that being ordered by Hitler, as to the troops/generals deciding the war is lost many would but their is still fight in them they are now defending their country. Their may be a winter offensive from Germany, despite the military insanity of that at this point. A major offensive on part of the Entente, is not likely, but they still need to keep pressure on the Germans so they can not form up a strong if brittle defense.
 
Wonder if we are more likely to see an Alt-Battle of the Bulge or an Alt-Christmas Truce...

Unlikely - the butterflies will scramble all that up, I suspect, given how large the Czech forces still fighting will be compared to OTL.

Why more Czech forces?
 
Why more Czech forces?

My guess is that without the blitzkrieg victories there are less Czech's content with occupation and considering the Germans have lost the war at this point the general populace is running out of reasons to follow NAZI leadership.

Presumably its because otl the German army had a year after the fall of France to stomp out any resistance, whilst ITTL the army has been too busy fighting the Entente.

This as well.
 
Why more Czech forces?

What happened to the Czechoslovak forces in France after it's capitulation? Captured or evacuated to France? There is probably also a uptick in Czechs who fled to the Entente as Europe isn't a Nazi fortress and Hungary is relatively easy to reach.
 
Presumably its because otl the German army had a year after the fall of France to stomp out any resistance, whilst ITTL the army has been too busy fighting the Entente.
Big difference is geography - ITTL they have a neutral border (Hungary) and from there can just get a train to join their forces in France. In OTL they would probably have had to go to Turkey. Throw in the Germans doing much worse which makes patriotism a much easier option, and I would expect to see far more Czechs fighting in exile.
 
Big difference is geography - ITTL they have a neutral border (Hungary) and from there can just get a train to join their forces in France. In OTL they would probably have had to go to Turkey. Throw in the Germans doing much worse which makes patriotism a much easier option, and I would expect to see far more Czechs fighting in exile.
Huh? German Austria borders Slovakia, there is no border between the Czech half of Czechoslovakia and Hungary, they would have to go through Tiso's Slovakia to get to either Hungary or Romania. The other option is to go into the Reich Proper to try to cross into Hungary, Yugoslavia, Italy or Switzerland. I agree that it will be much easier than OTL, but not *that* easy.

In some ways Tiso is the leader whose fate will be most in question in the Postwar order. Norway and Denmark will likely go back to governments that will be natural successors to the governments of 1939, the Polish Government in exile will *probably* be installed in the currently German controlled part of Poland, (Unless Stalin jumps), but putting Czechoslovakia back together, I'm not completely sure of. (Leopold III of Belgium of course gives Tiso a run for his money)

Spoiler, Operation Anthroid gets cancelled because someone who stayed in country gets to Heydrich first. :)
 
What I haven't seen recently is how close the Entente is to pinching off the Ruhr... Seems like the French efforts are a general push which might lead to escaping units rather than specifically pinching off the southeast end.
 

Ryan

Donor
What I haven't seen recently is how close the Entente is to pinching off the Ruhr... Seems like the French efforts are a general push which might lead to escaping units rather than specifically pinching off the southeast end.

I think ngf's comment and map (which is of the situation 4 days ago) cover that pretty well:


Here is the updated campaign map. The Ruhr is more isolated than it appears on the map because the main rail lines run east fro Dortmund through Hamm and Unna, both of which are, or soon to be, occupied by the British First Army. There is a rail line that runs south from Essen to Dusseldorf, but I expect that is being heavily bombed by the RAF and the Armée de l'Air.
 
Another consideration: If it's men that are making it through the encroaching Entente, but not their material, I imagine the Entente would be more than happy to let thr Germans have to feed them.

After all, in OTL, the Allies made up designations (Surrendered Enemy Personnal was the British one) for the masses of surrendered Axis troops they had custody. Not for any particular malice, as I understand it, but simply because they didn't have supplies to feed them all at the standards the PoW status demanded.
 
Huh? German Austria borders Slovakia, there is no border between the Czech half of Czechoslovakia and Hungary, they would have to go through Tiso's Slovakia to get to either Hungary or Romania. The other option is to go into the Reich Proper to try to cross into Hungary, Yugoslavia, Italy or Switzerland. I agree that it will be much easier than OTL, but not *that* easy.

In some ways Tiso is the leader whose fate will be most in question in the Postwar order. Norway and Denmark will likely go back to governments that will be natural successors to the governments of 1939, the Polish Government in exile will *probably* be installed in the currently German controlled part of Poland, (Unless Stalin jumps), but putting Czechoslovakia back together, I'm not completely sure of. (Leopold III of Belgium of course gives Tiso a run for his money)
I think Tiso will be behaving very differently from OTL. The OTL Salzburg meeting which led to a National Socialist regime in Slovakia will take place in a very different environment - the Germans are trapped in Paris and looking like they're not going to get out, and the US is making friendly noises towards the Entente. Things will rapidly deteriorate until Easter 1941 when the Catholic Church comes out openly against the Nazis - even in OTL this was enough to significantly moderate Tiso's behaviour. In the circumstances by late 1941 I'd be very surprised indeed if he was making any serious attempt to stop Czechs (and indeed Slovaks) crossing the Hungarian frontier - and will no doubt be having under-the-table discussions with the Government in Exile about the postwar world.
 
Leopold III of Belgium of course gives Tiso a run for his money
Leopold is basically out, sure, but the Belgian state and government will go on much as before, just with a new monarch. I imagine many other countries will be shuffling out individuals who were a bit too willing to do something stupid (and in some cases treasonous) towards Germany, he'll just be the highest-ranked victim, while the Belgian government just continues on from pre-war.
 
The outcome of this war so far should hopefully quash any neo-Nazism by the ATL present day. At the rate this war is going, historians and pop culture will probably view Hitler as a pathetic imitation of Napoleon in a "first as tragedy, then as farce" sense.
 
Leopold is basically out, sure, but the Belgian state and government will go on much as before, just with a new monarch. I imagine many other countries will be shuffling out individuals who were a bit too willing to do something stupid (and in some cases treasonous) towards Germany, he'll just be the highest-ranked victim, while the Belgian government just continues on from pre-war.
The question is faster or slower than iOTL. I think his stupidity is smaller than OTL, since he surrendered less.

The other question on Belgium is given the use of Troops from the French Empire, are there any troops from the Belgian Congo fighting right now...
 
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