415 BC : Alcibiades does not have to flee to Sparta

[Hecatee]

In 415 Alcibiades convinced the Athenian Assembly to send a huge force to Sicily under his command. Yet on the night before the fleet left Athens a scandal happened that was attributed to Alcibiades. Yet no one accused him publicly on that day and it was only some weeks later that a war galley came from Athens to southern Italy where the main fleet was in preparation for the attack on Syracuse. On board this galley an order to seize Alcibiades and bring him home for trial. Fleeing Alcibiades then went to Sparta where he gave the Spartans keys for defeating Athens, made contacts with Persian Satraps that were neutral in order that they support Sparta with gold and then in 411 came back to his own people, leading them to a string of victories before a defeat in 406 made him loose prestige and command. Giving new counsels to the Athenians in 405 he could not prevent the Aigos Potamos disaster that led to the surrendering of Athens to Sparta and the end of the Peloponesian war. He was assassinated some months later on orders from Sparta.

The question I intend to explore with this time line is the consequences of a different turn of events in 415. Here we have many different possibilities :

• The expedition is not launched at the planned date, Alcibiades is tried and :
  • found guilty and executed, the expedition is then either
    • launched under command of Nicias and leads to the same disaster
    • cancelled
  • found not guilty and he leaves for Sicily in command of the fleet
    • he is defeated
    • he wins and takes Syracuse
• The expedition is launched at the planned date and :
  • the Athenians do not try him "in abstensia" or try him and found him not guilty and he keeps command of the expedition
  • the Athenians try him "in abstensia" and he accepts to go back to Athens, leaving command to Nicias, never going to Sparta
  • he flee as historical but not to Sparta and thus does not give his precious advices to the Spartans

Of course all these possibilities have various consequences that are all very interesting. Let us look at some :

• The expedition is not launched : Athens keeps lots of money and 50 000 warriors and 200 ships, thus having a huge advantage when war with Sparta is renewed
• The expedition is a success and brings lots of riches to Athens, as well as a fresh supply of horses and puts all of Sicily in Athenian power, bringing taxes like the Delos League already does
• The expedition might then get further and follow the plans hinted by Thucydides of conquest of Carthage and/or Italy, either a success or a disaster which might shatter athenian control in the west
• In any case where Sicily falls a bigger presence of the Greeks in the west, which has huge consequences on the populations of Italy ( more hellenized, more structured, a bigger challenge to Rome which may not rise to the first place in Italy )

Also every scenario where Alcibiades does not go to Sparta will probably lead to an Athenian victory in the Peloponnese's war since the Spartans will not accept from within their city the idea of an alliance with the Persians and even if they did they would probably not have the kind of diplomats needed to make such an alliance which was vital to them since their economy did not use money and without money they were unable to sustain a fleet, key to disrupting the flow of resources from the Athenian empire. Greeter population and resources and lesser need for keeping an army at home ( which the Spartans had to do to prevent hilots revolts ) would lead to an inevitable spartan defeat.

Now what is your view on this small analysis, and do you think it worth some more thought and the creation of a timeline ?

 

[Hecatee]

The main question if Athens wins the Peloponnese's war is to know what happens later. Would we see an unified Greek state under Athens ? A federation under Athens leadership ? Something stable or something that would crumble quickly ? Would the Greek world expend ? If it did so in which area would this happen ? Those are the questions we'll explore right now.

First one must ask himself what would be the peace like in case of a conquest of Sicily ( and Sicily only with no other conquests like Carthage as was envisaged in Athens in 415 ). Operations in Sicily would take some 3 or 4 years to take the city ( delay based on the siege of Potidee at the start of the war, 432-430 ) and cause a breach of the treaty by the Spartans who would not send help to Sicily but instead would try to force the Athenians to recall their expedition by invading yearly Attica, to no avail.

After victory is achieved the whole Syracusean population is either killed or sold into slavery and 10 000 Athenians are installed in the city as clerouch. This victory is a major blow to Sparta which losses a powerfull dorian ally which could send massive quantities of supplies to Sparta and owned a powerfull fleet that would have been much needed against the Athenian fleet.

Alcibiades comes home in a triumph, is elected Stratege and immediately takes the field against Sparta, using the strategy which had so well worked in 420 of building fortress on the Peloponnese's coast where fleeing helots could be trained and armed, putting a huge dent in Sparta's economy.

In 409 as the Sicilian cities sent 10 000 men to Athens, including 2000 horsemen, the whole Athenian and Aegean allies hoplite force, some 15 000 men strong, along with 20 000 other light troops, gathered for a final attack. With the Sicilian force it was no less than 45 000 men that were attacking the Peloponnese. The strategy was simple : to lay siege to Corinth and force the Peloponnesian to battle, without their Boeotian allies.

The battle of Corinth led to a great victory of the Athenian forces thanks to the massive sicilian cavalry troops which came behind the enemy Phalanx and the general superiority in numbers. Never had such amounts of troops been assembled in a single place since the battle of Platea during the Persian Wars.

The 5 morai ( out of 6 ) of the Spartan army, 10 000 hoplites strong, made up the right side of the battle line and had the sea next to them while Corinthian and other Peloponnesian forces made the rest of the line with with 15 000 hoplites and 15 000 light troops and were deployed on the land side. After the light troops skirmished all morning long the heavy infantry was engaged : Athenian commanders, having logistical troubles to support their forces, wanted a decisive action. Sending in their phalanx they routed the left side of the Peloponnesian forces while the Spartans held their ground. Half of the Athenian cavalry was ordered to pursuit the fleeing enemies in order to prevent any regrouping of those forces while the rest was sent in the back of the Spartans who did not see them until it was too late due to the dust that was on the field and prevented a good view of the battle. Then the Athenian forces that had routed the Peloponnesian left were reorganized and sent in reinforcement of the cavalry on the side and back of the Spartans. Those, their back to the sea, were cut in place and less than one thousand survived the battle.

The losses were huge for both sides with some 25 000 Peloponnesian and 17 000 Athenian dead, but the fact that a Spartan land force had been crushed was so surprising that many cities which were either neutral or even allied to Sparta allied themselves to Athens. The helots revolted and rebuilt their city on the mount Ithome like they had done in 464 BC.

But for Sparta the losses were more than could be supported by the city since the army made up the whole citizen corp and that the morai were made of 50% of helots : less than 1000 citizens of fighting age were still alive after the battle and the whole economy of the city was crumbling with the revolt of the helots. Thus envoys were sent to Athens who supplied the assembly to grant them peace. The Athenians accepted the offer but imposed some harsh terms : Sparta would enter the Delos league, have no independent foreign policy, not declare war on anyone without the consent of Athens, disband it's youth education and training scheme, never own a fleet and recognize the independence of the helots on mount Ithome. The defeated Spartans were forced to accept those terrible terms and went home, abandoning their allies.

Corinth tried to hold against the Athenians but a fleet sent at Naupactus prevented any reinforcement by sea and the city was finally taken, it's people sold into slavery and 5000 clerouch sent to colonize the area.

Their was only one city left to lead the enemies of Athens : Thebes. They had not been able to participate to the battle of Corinth and their 20 000 men strong army was still in full strength, including it's famous cavalry.

 

[Hecatee]

Here come the first of two maps showing the situation in Greece at the start of the war

 

[Hecatee]

This second map shows the situation after the battle of Corinth in 409 B.C. where the Athenian forces destroyed the Spartan power and subjugated all the Peloponnesian cities in one decisive engagement and the second battle of Delion where the Athenian forces defeated the Boetian forces of Thebes in 408 B.C. .

 

[Hecatee]

We left this time line with Athens having just defeated the Peloponnesian cities in a massive battle at Corinth which had seen the destruction of the Spartan power and lead to the annihilation of the city of Corinth herself. But Athens still has one enemy in Greece, a powerful city much closer to Athens than Sparta, much more hostile and more determined ( since it is this city's attack on Platea which started the war ). This city is Thebes. While not situated in a rich area this city has a massive army some 20 000 men strong that's being reinforced by Peloponnesian exiles and mercenaries recruited in Macedonia and Epirus. The area around Delphi had also decided to support Thebes and had sent light forces to serve the Thebans.


After it's victory at Corinth Athens could not go directly against Thebes due to logistical concerns and the need to reorganize the Peloponnese. It is thus in 408 B.C. that the Athenian forces launched their great offensive with 10 000 hoplites, 15 000 light troops and 5000 horsemen of Sicilians ( including reinforcements sent during the winter ), Thracian and Thessalian nationality.

On the other side waited the 8000 hoplites, 10 000 light troops and 2000 horsemen of Thebes with 4000 other Greek light troops, 6000 Macedonian light troops and 4000 Macedonian horsemen.

The Athenians decided to use the same road as they had in 424 during their previous attempt at conquering Boeotia and the two armies met at the same place as before, the town of Delium. But this time the Athenians are not caught of guard and deploy for battle with all their support forces around their hoplites and have a very high morale after their victory on Sparta. While the two cavalry fight each other without any side taking the upper hand the infantry begins the fight, first with the light troops and then with the hoplites. The Thebans use their usual formation with is to show a smaller front but with a deeper phalanx than the usual disposition of troops. The Athenians, knowing that and having more troops, do also deepen their ranks but present a larger front than their enemy and keep fresh groups of light infantry on their sides to protect them from any raid by the enemy cavalry.

Meanwhile the commander of the Theban cavalry is killed and his men begins to flee in front of the Athenian' cavalry and soon the Macedonian followed them, allowing the Athenians horsemen to fall on the back of the Theban phalanx like they had the year before at Corinth. But here the front held and they did not cause a retreat and in fact it was them who had to retreat and regroup before going after the light troops. At the same time the Athenian light troops that screened the sides of the phalanx were ordered to attack the flanks of the Theban phalanx. Those troops, still fresh since they had not come into contact with any enemy, did finally break the Theban resolve and their phalanx dissolved under the pressure from three sides. Yet the exhausted Athenians could not pursue their enemy which fled to Thebes where they entrenched themselves behind the walls of the city.

The Athenian then lay siege to their enemy, sending a force of light troops and cavalry to Macedonia while the rest of the infantry stayed in front of Thebes. But the city had not had time to make huge supplies in prevision for the siege and soon hunger grew to an intolerable point and the leaders of the city surrendered after 3 months.

The Athenians showed no pity for their worst enemy and killed the whole population including the babies and the women whatever their age. Then they installed 5000 chlerouch on the site to control the area. On the way back they also re-founded Platea which had been destroyed at the beginning of the war.

The Macedonians then sent a delegation to Athens demanding peace. It was accepted but the Macedonians had to enter the League of Delos and pay a tribute. This concluded the Peloponnesian War and left Athens sole master of the whole Greek world.

 

[Adamanteus]

I have doubts that, even with a Sicilian victory, that the Delian League could still win the war. The reason is that Attica is still open to invasion and pillaging by the Spartans, year after year, and the Athenians cannot challenge the Spartan infantry on equal terms. When they were successful, it was always through some tactical outmaneuvering. The best I can see is that Athens can hold out for some time before coming to another "peace treaty" with Sparta, recognizing more territorial concessions, and repeating this same cycle of wars and peace.

But if the Delian League wins the war, it means something different entirely. Regardless of Sparta's role in this league, most of Hellas is unified and strong under Athenian hegemony. This means no Macedonian rising, no Alexander the Great, with a prolonged Achaemenid Persian Empire.

 

[Hecatee]

I do not share your doubts for a series of reasons.

First the spartan invasions of the Athenian mainland had almost no effect on the economy of the city because the damages causes were not permanent and until the Spartan built their Decelia fortress they could not maintain a permanent force in Attica. And the fortress was only built after Alcibiades had given the Spartan the tip about it. Also the athenian cavalry was more than enough to disrupt the spartan efforts even without a massive land battle.

Then with manpower and free access to the seas the Athenian would have no trouble taking back their possessions in the north as shown by the OTL Alcibiade's campaign of 411-406, using more diplomacy than warfare.

Also Sparta has no money and no diplomatic skills and thus cannot ally with the Persians or if they do they cannot get as much money from them thus Sparta can't build her naval forces to match Athens's.

If their ever was a providential man then it was Alcibiade for Sparta in 415 and putting him out of the equation on Sparta's side means Athens victory, great if Alcibiade stays alive and in command, simple if Alcibiade does not survive past 415. For in the long term the power of Athenian money, culture and economy would have given her the supremacy in any scenario where the city had not been beaten by Sparta as she was in 404.

Now as for what comes next I'll post right now an update to this timeline

 

[Hecatee]

The next years were rather peaceful in mainland Greece because all of it had suffered massively from the war. But many longed for the opportunity to fight and get glory as well as gold taken from the enemy. Thus when in 406 in Sicily the Carthaginian army under Hannibal Gisco invaded the city of Agrigente where his forces defeated a Sicilian militia led by Athens's representant in the island many were eager to enlist for an expedition to free the city and destroy the Carthaginian power. The athenian leaders knew that this war would be much different from the previous one because it's foe was a naval power.

A force of 150 warship was thus sent with 10 000 hopplite in order to help the Sicilians while the cities of both the island and souther Italy were asked to build ships and provide men. The powerful force arrived on the island and soon defeated the enemy's land forces while the athenian fleet, led by superior officers using better tactics developped during the Peloponnese's war, blockaded the enemy fleet. All the Carthaginian cities were soon captured with the exception of the small fortress of Lylibaeum which held firm under the command of Gisco and Himmilcon. Yet after 6 month the place is finally taken and all of Sicily under Greek control.

A Carthaginian embassy arrived then in Syracuse asking for terms, but they were sent to Athens where the people met in assembly in order to listen to the ambassadors. With their fleet mostly destroyed and all their territories in Sicily lost the ambassadors do not have much to bargain with and the peace terms imposed are rather harsh : a massive fine in gold is asked and the Carthaginian must never put a foot on Sicily anymore. Since they can't keep fighting the ambassadors accept the terms and get back to Carthage where the Council has them executed while recognizing the treaty.

 

[Hecatee]

While the first war against Carthage was ending a new crisis arose on the international scene when in 404 the Egyptians revolted against the Persians. Athens decided to send help to the new pharao Amyrtheus and mustered an expedition on the same scale as the Sicilian expedition, to be paid by Egyptian gold. All the troops in the expedition were mercenaries coming from various cities of mainland Greece who had lost much during the wars and hoped to get rich, remembering the spoils of the battle of Platea during the second invasion of Greece by the Persians. The expedition would prove most successful and the saïte prince rewarder the mercenaries well for their important role in the fightings and especially in the battle of the salted marches which had stopped a persian army which had come to retake the country. A permanent mercenary force of 4000 hopplite was then instituted by Amyrtheus.

This setback caused a lot of troubles inside Persia where the satraps were already fighting each other, especially Cyrus the younger and Tissapherne. The coastal cities of Asia Minor are seen by both parties as potentially great allies, as is Athens. It is finally Cyrus who makes the best promises and is allowed to recruit Greek mercenaries by Athens, who sees this conflict as an occasion to weaken it's powerful neighbor. Cyrus does recruit in 402 close to 17 000 Greeks and then decide that the best way to survive is to kill Artaxerxes II, King of Persia. Leading his troops while pretending to go fight Cilician rebels he goes as far as the Euphrate before telling his men what he intends to do. The mercenaries are at first uncertain but Cyrus's gold persuades them to go forward. The battle of Cunaxa sees a great victory of the mercenaries against the armies of the king but Cyrus dies during the fight. The mercenaries are then alone in the midst of an hostile country. They begin a long retreat toward the shores, at first helped by Tissapherne acting on the King's order but then alone after their commanders are treacherously killed by the Persians. Led by newly elected officers under the athenian Xenophon, named in place of their defunct general, the Greeks reach the shores of the Hellespont at Trapezond where they are able to ask Athens for a fleet which comes and save them.

Artaxerxes is furious against the Athenians but the battle of Cunaxa has convinced him that his forces are inadequate especially since the actions of Cyrus have given ideas to other satraps. A period of instability begins for Persia that would not stop for some years.

 

[Hecatee]

Athens was flourishing thanks to the tributes coming from all over the Empire and the great prosperity of commerce. Industry is booming all over Attica while many new buildings are erected in Athens, including a great portico on the Agora for the administration of the Empire and new sanctuaries on the Acropolis. Some of this wealth is also used to build splendid buildings abroad in the clerouch colonies in order to prove to all the greatness of Athens and her superiority.

Then in 399 she is struck by the death of her hero Alcibiades, who dies at 51 from alcoholic abuse. This lead to a renewed period of fighting between the aristocratic and democratic parties who had been mainly silent during the recent years due to Alcibiades' superiority. But the democratic party stays in control helped by the gold of some of the most powerful tributary cities who want to have a say in the affairs of the Empire.

Progressively the idea of a permanent representation of those cities in the assembly gets into the minds of the Athenians, with the first step being the inclusion of 50 representatives sent by the cities into the Boule where they could not vote but had the right to speak, a disposition introduced in 397.

In this area of progress many comes to Athens to hear the famous philosophers like the elderly Socrates, who narrowly escaped a condemnation for impiety some years before, or to present new ideas to the assembly. New ideas come to the fore like catapults, stone throwing machines for use during siege, born from the mind of some engineers who had participated to the siege of Lilybaeum in Sicily some years before.