20th Century Ottoman Great Power

[Deleted member 109224]

Looking at it, the Ottomans in 1910 have borders that make them pretty set to be a powerful state in the 20th Century. They've got the oil of Saudi, Kuwait, Iraq, and Libya as well as control over key trade and pipeline routes.

Let's say the Great War breaks out over the Agadir incident. This is all before the Balkan War, Italian War, and British agreement with Kuwait.

The Ottomans proceed to join the Entente against Germany and Austria-Hungary. Their conditions are (1) reclaiming Bosnia, (2) getting back Cyprus, which they nominally own, (3) being allowed to assert direct control over Crete, (4) seizing CP assets in the Empire as well as wiping CP debts, (5) revisiting unfair treaties. Bulgaria proceeds to join the CPs and the Ottomans take back Eastern Rumelia as a result.

The Great Powers post-war are too exhausted to try and pick apart the Ottoman Empire and the Ottomans use the peace the solidify control over their own territory. In the mid-20th century, the country starts becoming a tiger-like growing economy that's also a petrol superpower.

Thoughts?

 

[TheOlympian]

Looking at it, the Ottomans in 1910 have borders that make them pretty set to be a powerful state in the 20th Century. They've got the oil of Saudi, Kuwait, Iraq, and Libya as well as control over key trade and pipeline routes.

Let's say the Great War breaks out over the Agadir incident. This is all before the Balkan War, Italian War, and British agreement with Kuwait.

The Ottomans proceed to join the Entente against Germany and Austria-Hungary. Their conditions are (1) reclaiming Bosnia, (2) getting back Cyprus, which they nominally own, (3) being allowed to assert direct control over Crete, (4) seizing CP assets in the Empire as well as wiping CP debts, (5) revisiting unfair treaties. Bulgaria proceeds to join the CPs and the Ottomans take back Eastern Rumelia as a result.

The Great Powers post-war are too exhausted to try and pick apart the Ottoman Empire and the Ottomans use the peace the solidify control over their own territory. In the mid-20th century, the country starts becoming a tiger-like growing economy that's also a petrol superpower.

Thoughts?

The arabs wanted independence, also there's WW2 and angry slavs minorities that would be helped by the USSR so the economy would not be great.

 

[Big Smoke]

Needs a pre 1900 POD in my opinion.

 

[BlondieBC]

I did an ATL where a strong Ottoman power is a side effect of the CP winning WW1. Basically, you just need a few things to wank the Ottomans.

• Need to be on winning side of war.
• Need to repudiate capitulations, and likely debts. Since most are with Britain and France, CP win is better.
• Have UK use Gallipoli troops in some other location such as Flanders.
• Avoid attacking in winter in eastern Turkey. Change a few orders or delay Ottoman entry to war.

If you do the above, by 1915 Ottomans will have troops to spare and only be fighting poor logistics. As Entente starts to lose in more important areas, then Ottomans will naturally have success. Basically in addition to the list above, you need some reason for the Entente to be losing and for England to slowly strip troops from other areas to try to save Flanders. Then you have a peace treaty where it is made clearer that the Ottomans own the Basra to Gahwar area. Avoid other disasters, and the Ottomans of 1975 is basically a one nation OPEC.

 

[Aphrodite]

I don't know about the land acquisitions. Do he Ottomans really need Cyprus, Crete, Bosnia and Eastern Rumelia? Getting the Entente to grant these concessions would be very difficult. without that, its easy to see the Ottomans getting everything you listed

How about instead, they get more money which they really, really need. The Entente could probably cancel all of the Turks debts and give the bill to Germany,.

The Ottomans stand a decent chance in an Entente victory. They just have to wait for the eventual falling out between Russai and Britain

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

The Ottomans proceed to join the Entente against Germany and Austria-Hungary.

Trouble is the Ottoman Empire’s enemies were Russia, Greece and Britain.

1. The Ottomans had lost a series of wars against the Russians ever since the late 18th century, and progressively lost territory as a result.

2. Likewise the existence of Greece was a threat to Ottoman control of the Aegean, which was necessary to secure the trade routes to Istanbul. Not to mention the threat it posed to Ottoman territories in Europe.

3. Britain’s seizure of Egypt, one of the richest provinces of the empire, could not be tolerated. The region must be restored to full central control and the revenues of the Suez canal nationalised.

Given the history and politics, it made much more sense for the Ottomans to enter WW1 on the side of the Central Powers. They had nothing much to gain from joining the Entente, since that would preclude any possibility of reversing their earlier losses.

With the benefit of hindsight, the best outcome would be for the Ottomans to stay neutral. The British control of the sea meant that Britain would prevail; it was foolish to challenge them.

As for a post-war Ottoman Empire, it would undoubtedly be vastly better than what we’ve had since 1918. Things could hardly be worse than OTL.

An interesting butterfly question is whether WW2 ever happens if the Ottoman Empire still exists. OTL, Hitler was inspired by the success of Ataturk in overturning the Treaty of Sevres, and decided to try his luck at overturning Versailles. But without the precedent, would he still try?

 

[Philip]

The Ottomans proceed to join the Entente against Germany and Austria-Hungary. Their conditions are (1) reclaiming Bosnia, (2) getting back Cyprus, which they nominally own, (3) being allowed to assert direct control over Crete, (4) seizing CP assets in the Empire as well as wiping CP debts, (5) revisiting unfair treaties. Bulgaria proceeds to join the CPs and the Ottomans take back Eastern Rumelia as a result.

I can't see the Entente even entertaining these conditions, much less agreeing.

 

[Dementor]

Looking at it, the Ottomans in 1910 have borders that make them pretty set to be a powerful state in the 20th Century. They've got the oil of Saudi, Kuwait, Iraq, and Libya as well as control over key trade and pipeline routes.

Let's say the Great War breaks out over the Agadir incident. This is all before the Balkan War, Italian War, and British agreement with Kuwait.

The Ottomans proceed to join the Entente against Germany and Austria-Hungary. Their conditions are (1) reclaiming Bosnia, (2) getting back Cyprus, which they nominally own, (3) being allowed to assert direct control over Crete, (4) seizing CP assets in the Empire as well as wiping CP debts, (5) revisiting unfair treaties. Bulgaria proceeds to join the CPs and the Ottomans take back Eastern Rumelia as a result.

The Great Powers post-war are too exhausted to try and pick apart the Ottoman Empire and the Ottomans use the peace the solidify control over their own territory. In the mid-20th century, the country starts becoming a tiger-like growing economy that's also a petrol superpower.

Thoughts?

The Entente is not going to agree to the Ottoman conditions, since this is far too much gains for the very little assistance the Ottomans could give them against Austro-Hungary and Germany. And even if this happened, Bulgaria's leadership is not composed of idiots, who would want to fight the Ottoman Empire on their own.

 

[phx1138]

With a post-1900 POD, it's harder. What about going back further? Can the OE win any one of the Russo-Turkish Wars? (That long-standing hostility would seem to put the OE on the German side in WW1.)

Or, can their be a standing OE-Swedish alliance? IIRC, Karl X got help from the OE; if he's less a nitwit (which, I acknowledge, may be ASB itself ), maybe that persists. That could put the OE an enemy of Britain in the Anglo-Swedish conflict. Does it draw Sweden into WW1 against the Russians (&, by extension, Brits & French)?

Does the OE-Swedish "axis" lead to dismemberment of the Russian Empire?

If the OE does survive into (even) the 19th Century as a power player, does if offer aid to the Rebels in the ARW?

Could it serve as a haven for Jews fleeing Nazis (assuming they even arise TTL)?

As the U.S. gains power, do we end up with a U.S-OE *Cold War? Space Race? Aquanautics race?

If the OE survives, what happens to the Olympics in 1896?

 

[EnvarKadri]

The arabs wanted independence, also there's WW2 and angry slavs minorities that would be helped by the USSR so the economy would not be great.

Before WW1? Where did the arabs show desires of independence outside the de facto independent Egypt? Or before the nationalistic clowns of the turkish nationalist faction of the Young Turks like Envar Pasha started pushing for turkish nationalism?