Since Aururia doesn't seem to have many problems providing its own labor, I don't see import of that from Africa or India as likely. However, you are quite likely to be right in the broader scheme of things; something like, gold->China, silk, tea, porcelain->Europe, India, SE Asia, etc., European products, spices, etc.-> Aururia. Probably multiple overlapping triangles, is what I'm getting at. Not to mention Aururia does produce non-gold products that are probably valuable elsewhere, even in China.
Lands of Red and Gold
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Since Aururia doesn't seem to have many problems providing its own labor, I don't see import of that from Africa or India as likely. However, you are quite likely to be right in the broader scheme of things; something like, gold->China, silk, tea, porcelain->Europe, India, SE Asia, etc., European products, spices, etc.-> Aururia. Probably multiple overlapping triangles, is what I'm getting at. Not to mention Aururia does produce non-gold products that are probably valuable elsewhere, even in China.
I think it's because he was only talking about the New World animals that were raised in other parts of the globe. While llamas were domesticated they weren't sent to other places (at least there aren't llamas' herds in Europe).
Pretty much. And the ones which will take longest to make the crossing - smallpox, measles, and (maybe) bubonic plague - are the ones which will hit the hardest. Although not having the diseases arrive all at once will help with the survival rates, since it's less likely to have one epidemic closely followed by another which wipes out the weakened survivors.
I'm not entirely sure what the end result of this will be either.
One of the fun things about this TL - unlike DoD - is that I don't really have a clear idea of how things will end up. I have no particular end-object in mind, only some very broad-scale ideas about what the future holds. With one exception, that doesn't include what nations will occupy the world at the end of the twentieth century - and even then, I only have a sketchy idea of that nation.In the most general terms, though, I think the result will be something less bad than the fate of the pre-Columbian cultures of the New World, but less good than, say, Japan.
I'm not sure when I will cover the Maori in much detail. It depends on how I write things. If writing things in chronological order, the Maori will be the last of the Third World peoples covered, since they are the furthest in sailing terms from Europe, the most uniformly hostile to outsiders, and their lands hold the least interest to Europeans.
At the moment, I'm planning to cover the fate of Dutch-Atjuntja contact in the next couple of posts. Since this also involves the question of the Dutch versus the Spanish-Portuguese, it will then merge into the broader view of the changed *30 Years War, featuring among much else a Gustavus Adolphus who is convinced that he has nothing to lose...
Then it will be back to Aururia, showing the European contact with the Nangu, Mutjing and Yadji, who are next in line, for better or worse. There's also the depiction of the first English contacts with the Land of Gold around this time, too.
So showing the Maori may come some time after that. On the other hand, I may decide to do a change of pace and show something about them earlier. I still have in mind a couple more "overview of nations in 1618" posts which I need to complete, for the Maori and the Kiyungu (in south-east *Queensland), and I may write one or both of them for variety.
Picture pigs and potatoes, as far as the eye can see. While other European crops had some effects, nothing came close to the potato. It was the population boom started by the potato which allowed the Maori to fight the Musket Wars amongst themselves in the first place. Pigs gave them a handy source of protein to go with it.
Mmm, pigs and potatoes. Excuse me, time to fire up the barbie...
The effects of the potato were much greater than that - without it, the Musket Wars would have been much slower and much more limited, since in particular potatoes allowed warriors to bring food on long-distance raids. Any sustained European contact would probably involve transmission of crops anyway - the Maori took to potatoes very, very quickly.
Mmm. I haven't kept up to date with LTTW, but be careful not to overestimate the influence of a few renegade French advisors. The technological gap needed for the Maori to make their own muskets was huge, although the Maori could probably trade for as many as they want (see below), and a few extra advisors would not be likely to make much of a difference.
This is because the Maori already had hundreds of renegade Europeans living among them in the early decades after OTL contact. These were called the "Pakeha Maori" - estimates of their numbers range up to a couple of thousand. How they were treated by the Maori varied quite a lot - some were treated as valued advisors, some were kept as slaves. (Slavery might be the fate of these ATL French advisors, too, depending on their conduct). They taught quite a few things to the Maori, but IIRC not how to make muskets - at least not in any significant numbers.
However, the Maori could trade for muskets, easily enough. They had a number of goods to offer - timber, cultural artefacts, food if ships had come on a long voyage - but most of all New Zealand flax. This plant produces what's about the best natural fibre for naval rope and related uses, and was traded extensively by the Maori to acquire the muskets which they used in the Musket Wars. The Royal Navy loved it, and used it extensively. Any other European navy of the period would be glad to do the same.
New Zealand flax was even used as a plantation crop overseas - it dominated the economy of St Helena for a long time, and was still cultivated into the mid-twentieth century until competition from synthetic fibres killed the market. I expect that it could find some ATL uses in LTTW. (I certainly have some in mind for LRG, in due course).
Galileo made his key astronomical discoveries in the 1610s - the Galilean moons, the phases of Venus etc - and these were used by Kepler to publish his laws of planetary motion before the mid-1620s. Galileo himself also published the Assayer in 1619, and the broader arguments it provoked about the nature of science were permeating the intellectual fabric of Europe by the mid-1620s, too.
While Galileo himself may die before conducting some of his later work on the laws of motion, I think that enough had been done by a number of proto-scientists before 1625 that the Scientific Revolution won't be aborted entirely. Things may be slowed down a bit, depending on circumstances, but there are also ATL factors which may accelerate the development of a scientific world-view, too. (As Bill Cameron - IIRC - pointed out upthread, the effects of the Aururian disease exchanges will be well-documented on both sides, described, and considered by the scientific community. It will be harder to see disease or other consequences as the will of God. This will have interesting effects on the intellectual fabric of Europe).
The details will certainly be different, but at least when it comes to the history of science and technology, I'm not really a believer in a Great Man view. There's been an astonishing number of discoveries which have been independently made around the same time, which suggests that the right leap of insight can be made by plenty of smart people once there's enough other knowledge out there.
To be sure, the main idea of science - ie testing your ideas, and communicating them for the world to know - needs to be established first, but I think that was already in motion by 1625. There are also some ideas which may be discovered much slower - general relativity without Einstein, for instance - but the broad trends are still likely to be similar, I think.
Yes, that could be an alternative source of knowledge. Or someone else may discover blood circulation independently, even if Harvey dies.
One of the centres of learning and industry, certainly. I think that the general factors which were driving the development of science, technology and industry in Europe [1] would still be there ATL, so there would be considerable learning and industry there, too.
[1] Yes, I know that a significant part of the Ottoman Empire is in Europe. The Aururian crops will be of more benefit in the Asian and African portions, though.
Quite different, at least. The disruption of the plagues is quite likely to keep the Manchus from taking over, at least in the way in which they did in OTL. Whether that means China will be better in the long run... well, I don't know enough Chinese history to judge how likely that is.
Merci. I'll see what I can write next - I'm still thinking of experimenting with a variety of styles.
Yes, so someone else could be the butt of sheep-shagger jokes.
More seriously, though, the reason why sheep became important animals in Australia (and New Zealand) was simple: lots of open, relatively unoccupied pastures where large numbers of sheep could be grazed. Yes, there were previous inhabitants of those regions, of course, but with a low population density, and once Eurasian diseases swept through, the disheartened survivors could be relatively easily killed or pushed aside.
In ATL Aururia and Aotearoa, though, the population density is at least ten times higher (at least in the parts which are good for raising sheep), the indigenous populations are somewhat more resistant to Eurasian diseases, and have nastier diseases of their own. While their cultures and peoples will still be devastated, the survivors will be numerous enough to be able to resist in force. Pushing them aside for raising sheep just doesn't have the same ease or appeal which it did in OTL.
There's also the consideration that when ATL Europeans make the (relatively longer) voyage to Aururia in the seventeenth century, they've heard rumours of great wealth. Gold, spices, sandalwood, kunduri, and so forth offer much better profits than wool. If and when Europeans do use force to clear the natives from their land and/or force them to work to suit European interests, it will be for kunduri or spice plantations, or mining gold and silver, rather than trying to raise sheep.
If Europeans want to make a profit off wool - and there will still be profits to be made - then they will go where there's lots of flat, unoccupied land with open pasturage. Now in the ATL Americas, the native populations have suffered even greater losses with Aururian diseases added to Eurasian ones, but European settlement has been slower due to population losses of their own. This means that there's some appealling open spaces in the Americas where sheep can be raised, still with close access to the sea or at least riverine transportation networks, and where the sheep ranchers don't need to deal with as much competition from other European descendants who want to farm other crops.
This means, in effect, the North American prairies - Texas and inland near the Mississippi. And, to a lesser degree, the Argentine pampas, too - although that will have more competition for the land.
To which this native-born Texan must say:
Must... not... make comment about what the ATL 'Great Texas Lie' will be...
Seriously, though, great chapter! I like the new style. This balanced with the narrative should give us readers both the macro and micro view of the ATL. "May I have some more, sir?"
I'll see what I can do. Although the next couple of posts will probably be narrower in scope - more about Aururia itself than the effects on the world. (I can't specify too much about the effects on the world since I don't know the long-term effects on the world yet).
Heh. I could certainly see some enterprising Dutch (or Portuguese) captain trying just that. "Chases the rats down their own holes and kill them!"
The other animal which is likely to be sold for rat control is terriers. The Aururians probably have some rat-controlling dog breeds of their own, but they'd always welcome something else which might work better.
Fearless and bold, faster than any horse... (A prize racehorse can outrun an emu, but the average horse wouldn't).
Until I run out of ideas or lose interest, really. I don't have any fixed end point in mind.
I do know that the further I go from the PoD, though, the more the posts will move to overview/broad sweep of history mode, rather than being particularly detailed. The butterflies from this timeline move in armadas. Keeping track of every little detail would be impossible - even estimating the changes is going to be a monumental task.
Don't make Jared's head explode! He won't be able to write anymore!
Hey, at an average of 2000 words per week, that would mean that this timeline would reach the present day in, oh, 2052 or so.
It was fun to be able to say that.
Hmm. The Aururians will be dying in considerable numbers, but there may still be enough enough workers to deal with producing Aururian goods. Especially since conquering the place and imposing a mining or plantation system will be rather an effort.
The other consideration is that the VOC was already running a trading network in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific that wasn't quite triangular, but which did involve a lot of trans-shipping for a considerable profit. I once heard it described as:
Some source or other said:
In fact, it was quite a complex trade network with Batavia at the centre, and lots of other profitable shipping routes involved. It may be possible that Aururian goods simply plug into that network - gold, sandalwood and spices will do that. Of course, if production starts to drop, the VOC in the East Indies was certainly prepared to use force to compel the natives to grow the spices or other commodities it wanted.
That's about the shape of it.
It's always possible that a new Aururian virus or other diseases emerges - there are a few native candidates which have killed people in OTL - but I suspect that new diseases are more likely to turn epidemic from the Old World. OTL recent diseases have emerged along those lines, after all - polio had been endemic for millennia but didn't really turn epidemic until the nineteenth century, for instance. I think that introducting a new Aururian disease would probably be tipping the scales too much in favour of the Aururians - although I suppose that they would be just as vulnerable as everyone else.
Yup, there'll be quite complex trading networks developing. Aururia does have a few goods to offer the world other than gold - kunduri and a couple of spices, in particular - and this will broaden the trade.
Because that list only mentioned the domesticated animals which were introduced elsewhere in significant numbers. Llamas & alpacas are still mostly used in the Andes.
Well, there's going to be a few posts which will gradually show how that happens.
Indeed. The ATL author here was only describing animals which are exchanged and have significant effects in the new target lands. For instance, camels are listed as an animal which became important in the Third World, but camels are not correspondingly mentioned in the list of Eurasian animals which were exported to the Americas.
Hmmm.... So, would the European campaigns against the locals be the "Third World War"?
There's a llama farm fairly close to where I live...
There's certainly a few of them around the world. Alpacas, too - I've run across a couple of alpaca farms around the place. But they didn't really become a major domestic animal anywhere, and ATL they aren't likely to be exported in any significant numbers. Except maybe elsewhere in the Americas.
In a small way, probably, as exotic pets or the like. In terms of major take up, not really, since they wouldn't offer anything as rat-catchers which was better than the existing cats and ferrets.
Hmmm.... So, would the European campaigns against the locals be the "Third World War"?
Nice. Or possibly the War of the Worlds.
One serious possibility, though, is that historians will take the Dutch vs Portuguese actions in Aururia, the East Indies etc, together with various other colonial fights around the world, and refer to the *30 Years War as "the first world war".
The Sandman
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Not even to New Zealand? I would think that there are enough similarities in terrain that they would do quite well there, and sheep aren't going to be taking up that "wool/meat/milk" niche ITTL.
I think to some degree it might depend on how many Nangu are out-and-about trading eventually. I'd expect that quolls have the same importance to them that shipboard cats did to the European seafarers, and all it takes is a handful of them going feral somewhere that cats aren't completely dominant yet.
The platypus and echidna are even more likely as exotic pets, though, because of the whole "egg-laying mammal" thing. Especially the platypus, which is one of those animals where if you don't know that it exists you'd have to be shown a live one to believe they're real.
And while kangaroos are for all intents and purposes non-domesticable, ranching them might still be possible. Somebody shipping a breeding colony to Argentina or the Americas could be highly amusing. And all it takes is one crazy noble or rich man who comes to Aururia, likes the local hunting, and decides to take some of it home with him. Or a rich man from Aururia, bringing a bit of home with him...
I personally like "The Enormous Mess" myself. Or perhaps "The European Time of Troubles". After all, it's not so much that all of the wars are actually interconnected and more that they're all happening at once, and now on top of the economic and societal dislocation caused by Aururian wealth and diseases.
The Sandman
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Abdul is obviously the expert on the Ottomans here, but I suspect that anything that might improve the Ottoman tax base, especially when it would also encourage discontented Anatolians to move to the new farms of Mesopotamia (and stand as a bulwark against the Safavids) instead of starting the series of OTL rebellions that ravaged much of Anatolia throughout the 1600s, would be a huge priority. This would revitalize, well, pretty much the entire core of the Empire.
It would get an even bigger priority, I think, if the late 1600s still end up going about as poorly for the Ottomans in Hungary as they did IOTL; the loss of those lands and the revenues from them, to say nothing of the loss of face to the political leadership, is going to require that something be done to shore up the rest of the Empire. New crops that would vastly increase the productivity of everywhere from Bulgaria south would be just what the doctor ordered.
On Texas sheep, all jokes aside I wonder if this will lead to increased Desertification. The Tex-OK-Kan plains are semiarid by themselves (considered the "great American desert" for decades) and cattle have been hard enough. The Texas south and west are pretty much scrub and low grass. Sheep tend to crop grasses closer and rip up roots earlier than cattle (though not as badly as goats). OTL this was a major source of conflict between American cattle and sheep ranchers. With increased shepherding in the area I could see desertification throughout the area, including into the central Hill Country, which is a little too rough for cattle.
Interesting note on llamas: OTL at present they're seeing a huge upswing in the US West (Colorado and Wyoming in particular) mixed in with sheep as "guard animals". They get along well with the sheep (part of the flock) but are large and aggressive enough to chase off the coyotes.
Interesting note on llamas: OTL at present they're seeing a huge upswing in the US West (Colorado and Wyoming in particular) mixed in with sheep as "guard animals". They get along well with the sheep (part of the flock) but are large and aggressive enough to chase off the coyotes.
A bit ironically, the Murray River area is one of the places in threat of desertification today.
As to desertification of the American Mid-West in TTL it may hit in a slightly earlier period of the industrial revolution. With small plot farmers gaining access to mechanization it had accelerated the desertification in OTL. All this dust will also cause Global Dimming which can counteract global warming to a very small degree. This global dimming has actually caused the eastern US and Canada to have cooler winters, as compared the west coast of NA, which has had an increase in temperatures due to global warming at the same time of year (OTL).
Another interesting fact about dust storms is that the loss of many corals in the Caribbean and coastal Africa is attributed to a fungi found in deserts and arid farmlands which is carried into the oceans and infects them. This is one of the causes of coral bleaching that was in the news a few years ago.
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The Sandman
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Well, that's why it would be more of a free-range ranching deal. Or just a "guy who likes to hunt kangaroo but doesn't want to travel to Aururia to do it releases them into the wild back home" deal. Kind of like the lunatic who brought the rabbits over to Australia, only in reverse.
It would be interesting to see them imported to NA as a way for small farms to keep insects from over infesting their plots and to help control weeds. Of course, helping to weed only works if an emu would eat any of the various weeds that could grow in a plot.
Cattle will, I think, be better at the meat/milk niche - assuming that the locals are lactose-tolerant for milk, of course. The "wool" niche isn't really a major market for export, and so there's no particular attraction in importing alpacas to New Zealand. Which is not to say that there will be none - just that they won't be of major importance.
Feral quolls are entirely possible - as you point out, it won't take much for a few to escape somewhere or other. Domestic quolls being taken up in a large way requires them to be more useful than cats or ferrets, though, and I don't think that's as likely.
Certainly as occasional exotic pets, although platypuses are a stone-cold bitch to breed and temperamental even to keep. But domesticating them is another story entirely - quite hard to get either platypus or echidna to breed at all in captivity, let alone do it enough to be useful.
Feral kangaroos would be rather amusing, in an ecologically devastating kind of way. In good, wet years (and by Australian standards, even low rainfall on most continents would count as a wet year), kangaroos can breed about three times as fast as other large mammals. The consequences of this are left as an exercise for the reader.
Oh yes, there's a lot of separate events going on, but that doesn't necessarily stop historians lumping them together. The European and Pacific theatres of WW2 didn't have that much in common either, and the French Revolutionary Wars and the later Napoleonic Wars were also separate, but they still got classed together...
If the Ottomans have the capital, motivation, and settlers to green Mesopotamia in this way - and assuming that they receive Aururian crops in a timely manner - then yes, this would definitely be a huge plus for the Sublime Porte.
Is it likely to happen? No idea, to be honest. Paging AHP...
Oh, yes, this will help the Ottomans a lot. Even if they don't rebuild the irrigation works in Mesopotamia, there are still substantial portions of Anatolia, Syria, Palestine, and the North African coast which are going to become much more productive.
This is quite likely. Sheep have had similar effects in OTL Australia, after all, and the terrain and climate isn't too far off in Tejas.
As I understand it, this is because sheep are small enough to trigger the "protect the young" reflex in llamas, and so the llamas go berserk around any predators.
Especially since even if the kangaroos can't jump the fence, they'll still impale themselves on the fence.
Oh, yes. Thanks to the same farming practices which ITTL are more likely to affect Tejas and other such places.
While I haven't really planned things out in much detail that far ahead, it's entirely possible that Aururian crops will mitigate the effects of the *Dust Bowl. They are more drought-resistant than any other crops likely to be grown in the *Great Plains, and since they are perennials and don't need plowing, they will do a much better job of holding the soil together.
Whether Aururian crops will be taken up in the *Great Plains depends on many other factors, of course.
Now, that is tempting. Kangaroos are good to hunt - all that kangaroo meat which is sold in my local supermarket comes from wild kangaroos, of course - and I wouldn't put it past someone to do just that.
Not in a large way, in most cases. As mentioned in the last post, though, there is one region where the introduction of domesticated emus will make a major, major change to the local cultures.
I'm not sure about weeds, so much. Insects, yes - they're very good for that.
I think Alpacas may well become reasonably common in the future IOTL - there seem to be half a dozen or so small herds of them around North Otago (lower South Island, NZ), a figure which has slowly increased since the 1990s. Deer farming has also taken off since the 1970s at least in NZ, there would be hundreds of large sized herds in Otago alone, let alone the rest of the country.
I suspect farmers trialing the animal would probably be more likely to be those with experience in sheep raising. Although that being said farmers show a remarkable ability to rapidly shift crops/animal species these days - North Otago was even only 15 years ago Sheep then Cattle (Beef) then Crops then Dairy and Deer, now Dairy has taken over the first position.
I suspect farmers trialing the animal would probably be more likely to be those with experience in sheep raising. Although that being said farmers show a remarkable ability to rapidly shift crops/animal species these days - North Otago was even only 15 years ago Sheep then Cattle (Beef) then Crops then Dairy and Deer, now Dairy has taken over the first position.
Here in the States Alpaca wool clothing is a trendy thing since the wool is Cashmere-soft, yet doesn't cause allergy hives on those of us prone to such with wool. There's certainly niche market potential for both llamas and alpacas OTL or otherwise.
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