Jared will need to decide which cultures adopt the crops and which do not and why, which may involve pure guesswork or may parallel OTL and the potato/maize.
My initial guesses:
Yams: I'd guess a rough parallel to potato adoption. French resistance...not sure about Italian, Ottoman, Berber, Arab, etc.
Some brief googling indicates that the problems with potatoes were about the unfamiliarity and shape of the tuber, and lack of knowledge of how to prepare and cook them.
Of course, by 1625 some countries were starting to come to terms with potatoes, so red yams may have more luck. Yams also have a somewhat stronger and slightly sweeter flavour than potatoes, which may help.
Wattles: the gum may find a hard go, except maybe as a "peasant's sugar". The fact that the seeds can be milled into flour will help its adoption, at least as a way to cut wheat/rye flour ("peasant's flour"?), but is not glutinous, which means that adaption to leavened bread will be more difficult. Could wattles see more adoption into flatbread cultures (OE (& Greece), India, North Africa, etc.) than leavened bread cultures (Italy, Spain, France)? Together this could mean that Wattles will best and most quickly advantage the Eastern Med and Asian & African cultures, and perhaps slowly start benefiting the West, mainly via the poor, which offers interesting social butterflies.
One of the big barriers about wattleseeds will actually be their colour. With flour, the expectation was that the whiter, the better. Darker flour was seen as food for peasants. Wattleseeds are usually black or very dark. This may be seen as unappetising.
However, there are a few places where this sort of cuisine is likely to be appealling. Southern Iberia, especially certain parts of Portugal where the oily nature of wattleseeds will fit right in. From there, they may well diffuse across the Med.
The point about lack of gluten is also important. Wattleseeds can be combined with wheat or other glutenous flours, which will help, but it may require some changes in the cuisine of leavened bread cultures before it is taken up. For instance, they can just cook it with a small amount of eggs, which would work reasonably well for baking.
Greens: May see adoption by green veg loving cultures like the French, Italian, and Indian first. May eventually really start to benefit ME culture, however, by adding a reliable source of green veg (and vitamins) generally lacking OTL in the desert countries.
They will help if those cultures can be persuaded that vegetables are worth eating. In many cultures of this period, meat and bread was seen as the preferred food; vegetables were what peasants ate.
The other crop worth considering here is murnong. It's not quite as good as red yams in terms of yield, but in flavour it's a lot stronger, and also has varieties which can be grown further north than yams. It may spread into northern Europe, which would add to the carrying capacity there, although it will probably lose out eventually to the potato, which is even more useful in those climes.
Edit: Ah, beat me to it, Jared!
I do try...
How active are Arab traders in the Indian ocean at this time?
Everyone seems to have forgotten Arabia (the penisula. Not the country).
I haven't forgotten them; this is one of the main thoroughfares for the Indian Ocean slave trade, among much else. At this point, though, I think that most of the Indian Ocean trade was in Portuguese hands, or at least they had a lot of influence. They controlled Zanzibar and Muscat at this point, and had various outposts in the Persian Gulf. Oman would gradually begin to replace them later in the century, though.
One element is that Aurorian crops packet seems to need less infrascruture than the Asian crop packet, which mean that they could be adopted in areas with weaker states.
Very much so. Yams are much like potatoes, which need less infrastructure before cooking them. Wattleseeds need somewhat more work, but they don't need irrigation works or anything extensive like that. They can be planted and then mostly left alone until it comes time to shake them down for seed pods.
In East Africa and Angola that will have the interesting that we may see a population boom, without stronger states, while we at the same time see a increase in slave prices, leading the slave trade to move to these areas, with that we may see a collapse of the slaver states in West Africa, which will benefit the sub-Saharan in the long, while leaving Mahgreb to be a easy victim of Spain.
The Aururian crops are at their most useful in subtropical regions, particularly low-rainfall regions where they can out-compete just about any other crop. I'm not sure if they would grow that well in East Africa or Angola - too close to the equator. Red yams don't grow within the tropics at all, although some of the other crops probably would grow.
I actually think that the Mahgreb would be one area which would benefit considerably from Aururian crops. These are plants which can be grown without irrigation in areas with rainfall above 250mm or so, and there's a fair chunk of the Mahgreb where that would work.
In East Africa we see Oman and Zanzibar transfom into even richer mechant states, while in the America with the falling sugar prices, growing slaveprices and Portugese control over Angola we may see sugar production move mostly to Brazil, while many of the minor sugar producing islands will be abandon. So Portugal position as a mechant states is improved, and they become the primary importer of sugar to Europe.
Quite possibly sugar production will move to Brazil in the short term, but there are several advantages to growing sugar on the Caribbean islands. Not least because they are islands; runaway slaves were a major problem in Brazil. In the longer-term, I'd still expect sugar to develop in the Caribbean; the potential demand in Europe is huge even with a reduced population.
Cotton is unlikely, but with the death of a significant part of the population, lot of marginal land will likely be left to grassing.
Hmm, lower population meaning more areas of sheep ranching? Or, possibly, if cotton isn't being grown and slaves are hard to come by, maybe North America turns into one big sheep ranch. That would make wool the fibre of the Industrial Revolution.
I think they will take up yougurt and cheese making if the Dutch colonise them or at least a few cities, if not they will likely only adopt cheese in modern day.
Depends on how much land the Dutch get, I suppose. They will have a few trading posts at the very least, probably forts, and those may well bring their own cattle with them for cheese-making, so the knowledge may spread a bit.
Yes but domestic ducks hasn't been replaced entirely, mostly because they grasses, while chickens is more omnivores.
Good point. The domesticated species of Australian duck comes from a wild ancestor which is a very good grazer, and which incidentally needs virtually no contact with water. (Even in the wild, they are rarely seen in the water.) So, different domesticated animals for different situations.
Goat lend themself very badly to ranching, while they're perfect for smaller farms, so we likely more goats and fewer sheeps.
Good point, and it also makes me wonder where the world is going to get its wool from, if not Australia. Once again, North America is sounding tempting...
Cape was colonised by a few hundred settlers, even in OTL Dutch survived as a spoken in the former New Netherland to the 20th century. You need very few settlers to ensure longterm survival, when the natives has so little population density, and little immunity to diseases, the only thing which killed NN in OTL was large scale English (Puritan) colonisation (which won't happen here) and lack of interest from Amsterdam (which again won't happen here with NNs importance as timber producent, and the lessened impotence of the Caribian).
Hmm. Many of the settlers of the New Netherlands were not themselves Dutch-speaking; there were a lot of French-speaking Walloons and Germans, for instance. Quite a few English speakers, too. There were some Dutch settlers, of course, but they may well find themselves in the minority.
I'm also not so sure that large-scale English colonisation won't happen. The religious tensions weren't going away, and in any case plenty of the early settlers themselves were not moving for religious reasons. So English colonisation may be delayed due to Aururian diseases, of course, but those diseases will also hit the potential colonist base of the New Netherlands, so that may even out.
Quite badly the with collapse of silver import from New Spain, we will see deflation, which mean that 30YW will likely be put on hold for decades.
There is going to be a flood of gold and silver from Aururia, though. A lot of this will end up in Asia - which was a silver sink in OTL - but I'd still expect a lot to flow through to Europe, too. So deflation probably won't be a problem; if there's enough Aururian gold in Europe, inflation might be a bigger concern.
Relative fast, it's important to remember that one of the reason to the slow adoption in Europe was because of the low food prices which left little incentiment to experiment with new crops.
Although Europe was still plagued by famines, despite low food prices. It's odd, but whatever the reason, it may well mean that the Ottomans take up the new crops before they spread into much of Europe.
I think it was over 700 hundred of course a lot of them had a quite united adminstration. Many of the small one you just unite with some handwaving, it's the big one which is the question Pommern is almost sure to end up either Danish or Brandenburgian if the Swedish is kept out, Saxony has a good case for spreading into the Thüringe states (through they may also unifies under one house).
700? I'm glad I don't have to draw the guide for that map.
Pomerania is going to be interesting. I suspect that the butterflies won't really start to hit Europe until after 1625, so the Danish intervention at least is likely to go ahead. Sweden is iffier, and France even less likely to join in. Saxony might be another interesting story, too.
I have worked out the fate of a couple of royal lines already, incidentally, but I'll have to figure out another way to consider most of them.
The Ottoman territorium lend itself to lesser degree to farming, even if these crops can grow in more hardy places, simply because of the lack of water and the more mountanous terrean, beside that much of what is useful like Egypt almost every capacity is used. Asia Minor and Balkan is where these grops will really shine.
Aururian crops are very good dryland crops, though. Drought-tolerant, can cope with the scorching Mediterranean summers, and don't need irrigation. They don't need all that much water, and wattles, in particular, are very good for planting on hillsides which aren't of much use otherwise. So considerable parts of the Levant and the Mahgreb will also be potentially
Incidentally, the use of trees as crops in hilly areas has a precedent in much of the Mediterranean. Chestnuts were used for exactly this purpose, and deliberately planted as a source of food. Unfortunately, chestnuts don't grow all that well in Greece and much of Anatolia (chalky soils, if I remember right), and so they weren't used much. Wattles, though, grow almost anywhere, so they can probably be taken up even in areas of poor soil.
Yes Persia could see a boom, if this happen at the same time the state centralised Persia will have serious potential. Another state you should maybe look at is Ethiopia, which is fully integrated into the East African trade network.
I'm still thinking about Ethiopia. On the one hand, it's in the tropics, so some Aururian crops won't grow there. On the other hand, emus will do well in the lowlands, and
some Aururian crops may well grow in the Ethiopian highlands.
One aspect is that Denmark will be hard hit by the plague and the collapse of New World silver. So we may see no Danish intervention and a peaceful deal with the Emperor which could end with the Upper and Lower Saxon circle more pull out of the war with the two dominant powers (Denmark and Saxony) in those circles has found a peaceful settlement with Emperor (something which almost happen in OTL), so we see no Swedish intervention and I doubt France will intervene alone. So more less the war comes to a stop in 1625 with a strengthing of Imperial authority and some level of tolerance between the Lutheran and Catholics (leaving the Calvinist to convert, die or emigrate).
Hmm. I suspect that the Aururian plagues won't hit before 1625, so the Danish are still likely to intervene. What may well happen is that the Danes are involved in the war for a couple of years before the plagues start to hit, which may well pause the war and give both sides a chance to think. I'm not sure what Sweden may do in such circumstances... would they be likely to join in at all?
There seem several attempt of the Spanish to get rid of the Spanish Netherland into friendly hands by placing a sideline there. Of course the Habsburg won't be immune to the diseases either and may be force to marry out of family, something which will benefit them immensely
If the Spanish can get rid of the Spanish Netherlands, even if it's done by placing a friendly cadet branch on the throne or some such, I wonder how tempted the United Provinces will be to intervene.
The Habsburgs will probably have to intermarry outside of their house. Of course, a lot of royal families are going to have shakeups.
Oman is on the rise. In OTL they conquered all Portuguese forts in the north-western corner of the Indian Ocean: Sohar in 1643, Muscat in 1650, Mombasa and Zanzibar in 1698. Afterwards they raided Portuguese possessions as far south as Mozambique, and established colonial empire of their own in Africa (as late as 1950-ies, two branches of the Omani royal house still ruled from Zanzibar in Eastern Africa to Gwadar in South Asia).
They were not 'normal' traders only, of course; piracy, slave trade, plantation agriculture played significant role in their economy, too.
Quite. Oman is likely to be ascendant here, too. They won't be hit any worse by Aururian diseases than anyone else.
Hmm. I suspect Aururian crops might prove useful to them.
Good question. The climate of Oman is, well, harsh, and some parts of it are within the tropics, but there may be some parts where there is sufficient rainfall for Aururian crops to grow.
On introductions: precolonial Australia has no major predators to speak of, which means that anything the Europeans bring which can fill that niche will do very well for itself and be an absolute bastard to get rid of. ATM in Australia we have feral cats the size of medium dogs, packs of feral dogs, and foxes running around in the bush. The foxes were introduced for hunting purposes.
I'm wondering if domesticated quolls - which will be larger - will have spread back into the wild and starting taking over. There is that vacant predator niche to be filled, and they would have a head start. Of course, they still wouldn't out-compete foxes or feral cats if those things were introduced.
The only predators that did not get introduced in the real world that stand a chance of getting introduced in this TL are the ferret and the mongoose. Can any one think of any others?
I wonder if someone would want to bring in mongooses to control snakes. That may well end up with dead mongooses, though. Australian snakes are nasty critters.
AFAIK, OTL Australia doesn't have wolves (well, dingoes are wolves to some extent, but technically speaking, Canis lupus dingo and Canis lupus lupus are different subspecies). However, who in his right mind would introduce wolves? Maybe, as some sort of biological warfare against *Aururians (but they have dingoes, so wolves will not be that new a threat)... Or they could be introduced as game, similarly to foxes.
Dingos fill the wolf niche pretty well. Even if wolves were introduced, I suspect that the only result would be a few dingo-wolf hybrids, and not much else difference.
How do quolls fare against cats?
OTL quolls are small enough that they are more likely to be cat prey than competition. ATL domesticated quolls may well have been selected to be larger, though, and some of those may have escaped into the wild. That might make for some interesting competition, but I think that the cats would probably still win.
ITL we are likely to see more adoption of quolls into Auroran communities for pest control and as pets. What native pests have arisen?
Various native rodents. Australia has plenty of them to choose from, and stored food would attract rodents.
So we'd probably see feral cats (< or >OTL), dogs (~OTL), rats & mice (>OTL what with more food!), rabbits, and possibly ferrets
Sounds likely, although I think that ferrets are probably unlikely, except by accident.
I still think the mongoose might likely be brought in for snake control.
It might happen, but if so, mongooses probably wouldn't do much to the snakes. They'd be deadly for small native mammals, though (as happened in the West Indies).
On chickens vs. ducks, I see both co-existing as the ducks will thrive in the existing Gunagal wetlands/aquaculture living off of water plants, shellfish and wet grasses while the chickens will do well in the drier climes and can live off of insects and (presumably) wild (inedible to humans) grains, supplemented by wattles. They may even mix well with emu herds (not sure myself, but seems plausible). I'd assume the chicken will be wholeheartedly adopted as a third avian domesticate (called "dry duck" or "dwarf emu" IMO).
Sounds likely, although the domesticated ducks don't actually need that much water. Odd, but true: the Australian wood duck (which these are domesticated from) almost never goes into the water. So while Aururian ducks were domesticated in wetlands, they can spread much more widely than that.
Still, chickens have their advantages; better egg-layers, for instance. And there would be something entertaining about thinking of emus and chickens in the same fields.
If emus spread around the world I wonder if they will be called ostrich-cattle or giant chickens?
Most likely by called a Dutchified version of their original name.
What's the Gunnagal word for them?
The Gunnagal word for emus hasn't been specified, yet, but the name the Dutch use will probably be one of the Atjuntja words for the emu. Once I've worked out enough of the Atjuntja language to know what their name for the emu is, I'll include it in one of the posts.
One point on rabbits in Australia - in OTL they only took off when some mad Pom ordered wild rabbits so he could hunt them. All the domesticated rabbits brought out failed to survive, which is why he specified wild ones.
So here we might be spared those mongrel things.
'Twould be 'tweriffic if 'twere true. Rabbits have not been the nicest thing that ever happened to Australia.
I wonder what else might be brought in as game to hunt.
Pheasants, perhaps. Those were introduced to New Zealand in OTL, but not Australia.
It was only brought in because of large scale European settlent, something which is much more unlikely in TTL.
Quite true about large-scale European settlement, although all it really needs is one small outpost somewhere and some mad gentleman deciding that he needs hunting practice.
Hm, potatoes I don't understand (well, maybe being Irish has something to do with that), but I do kind of understand why people would not want to replace wheat with corn. As a southerner, I've had rather a lot of cornbread over the years, and it has universally been pretty terrible as bread. Very crumbly, tends to break rather easily. Wheat bread just doesn't behave the same way, making it much easier to store and better to use as bread. Of course, nowadays it wouldn't make much sense to replace wheat with corn since we have massive food surpluses in most areas where that's even a concern, and the prices are probably not that great.
Good point about the use as bread. Of course, there may be other uses for maize besides turning it into bread. And maize has been taken up in some parts of Europe, however slowly. Portugal adopted it early, and nowadays France and Italy are the biggest European producers, with various Balkan and Central European states also producing significant harvests.