So, since the Dutch aren't just going to march in and take the gold they're going to trade something for it. Right?
Quite. Although much depends on the relative worth of their trade goods.
Which begs the question. What could the Dutch have that the various Aururian kingdoms, principalities and empires could want?
Various things, but textiles would have to be right up there. Cotton and wool textiles would be better for most purposes than anything which Aururia has. Silk might be too, although that depends on relative exchange rates. Silk is also valuable in Europe, but if the Dutch can get a good trade for Atjuntja gold and silver, those precious metals might let them buy even more silk to ship back to Europe.
Various manufactured goods, iron and (especially) steel products. Muskets, if the Dutch are game to sell them. Glassware will be popular. Lacquerwork, porcelain, and other decorative products. Some spices will no doubt turn out to be highly prized, too. Perfumes. Alcohol, especially distilled spirits. Some drugs (eg opium). And so forth.
Looks like they'll fit right in with the East Asian agricultural package.
I suspect so, although much depends on two factors. One is whether the limiting factor in East Asian agriculture is yield per worker or yield per acre. If the limit is available land, then Aururian crops won't help all that much. if the limit is how productive workers are, and farming can be expanded to new land, then it will really help.
The other imponderable is cultural factors involved with take-up of new crops. Not all new crops are taken up quickly, even in areas where they would be suitable or superior.
Potatoes took a long time to spread around Europe, for instance, even though they give the best yield per acre of any food crop. For that matter, I'm not sure how long potatoes took to spread to East Asia; I do know that East Asia is now the region of the world where potato production is expanding the most. Maize had even more trouble getting taken up in Europe, even though it yields more than wheat, largely because there was a cultural preference in favour of whiter bread (which wheat provided, but maize didn't). This preference will also affect takeup of Aururian wattles, by the way.
It just occurred to me that one strange butterfly of the Auraurian plagues and the Auraurian crop package (and where it best grows) is that TTL will have an average complexion a little more towards the "tanned", to quote PM Berlusconi
. Larger Mediterranean, Central/West Asian, and African populations after a few gens, maybe less so in Northern Europe.
You mean this world might have more people with a nice healthy tanned complexion? Sounds good to me. Especially at the beach.
That seems mostly a British phenomen, the growth of the cities on the contignent where renting land was common seems more a result of growing population and concious desicions of state in a attempt to build up urban industry, to ensure a national production of industrial products.
Enclosure itself does seem to have been a British preference. If it does look like it's going ahead, though, then that's another factor which suggests that industrialisation may well develop in Britain. If industrialisation does start in Britain, it will probably still spread to the Continent from there, albeit slightly slower than happened in OTL.
I find it quite likely, the Dutch will likely introduce Australian crops and animals to the Cape (together with some Australian slaves), and from there it will likely spread especially, because with these new crops the Boer, Baster and Coloured population will explode, and likely be forced to seek new territorium, and bring these thing into contact with the Bantu.
Sounds good. Emus in East Africa, Aururian crops in northern and southern Africa. What's not to like?
I also agree about Aururian crops being introduced to the Cape quite early. While I haven't planned the future of this TL in much detail, one thing I did think was likely was that the increased trade and wealth of the VOC would encourage an earlier settlement of the Cape. That will also mean that crops are likely to spread; the climate of the Cape is pretty much perfect for them. (As South Africa has found out today with wattles.)
Likely it will result in a increase of living standards and a fall in foodprices. Some increase in productivity will be seen, but in many areas we will see a fall, because the need for products has fallen. In area with clear benefits of economies of scale (like weaving and cattle "ranching") we will see a increase in productivity, while in areas where economies of scale has little effect we will see little technological improvements.
Hmm. Weaving was one of the big drivers of the industrial revolution anyway; with a bigger benefit to economies of scale, will that mean that it will become important even faster? If so, there'll be demand for any useful fibre: wool, cotton if it can be grown, maybe even flax (linen).
Likely a increase in cereal prices is often blamed for the unrest which lead to the FR. With a fall in a population, a increase in food production and a smaller urban population it's unlikely that we FR hit as early, through we may see Netherland evolve into a British-style democracy instead, and from there other European countries evolve slowly toward Democracy rather than the sudden revolutions of 1789/1830/1848.
It's certainly possible, although there's going to be a lot of factors at play. Given that lots of revolutions happened in OTL; I'd be surprised if TTL managed to avoid them completely. Of course, revolutions may be far fewer, and not necessarily successful.
Guns, textiles, spices, silver and gold.
Guns, textiles and spices definitely. Silver and gold are iffier. They aren't worthless to the Aururians, by any means, but I doubt that the Dutch would find it worthwhile trading silver and gold for something else which the Aururians produce. Unless what the Dutch were buying was
extremely valuable. Sandalwood might make that grade, and possibly one or two other Aururian products - musk, for instance.
On a broader note, the VOC made some of its biggest profits simply by taking over inter-Asian shipping, and using the bullion that earned them to buy spices to sell back in Europe and make even bigger profits. The VOC may well find Aururian products which are desired in Asia, in which case it can simply plug Aururia into the broader trading network.
They might be interested in steel ingots. Assuming that Dutch steel making in the 17th C. was of a significantly higher quality than what they're producing.
I don't remember if the Aurorians has created the blast furnace, but if not the Dutch have it.
I don't recall Jared mentioning any blast furnaces.
There is no meaningful steel production in Aururia. They're only barely into the Iron Age. So steel would be quite a valuable trade good.
Honestly doubtful, if you look at world trade in the periode, the trade in crops and livestock was mostly accidental, while the Aurorians will likely get cattle, and pigs from the Dutch it likely happen rather accidental and they will set up their own raising of these animal afterward.
I agree. Livestock will spread, but except perhaps for occasional one-off trade, it won't be deliberate. Pigs will be highly valued, since they can eat anything, pretty much. Chickens may or may not displace domesticated ducks. Horses for transport would of course be extremely valued, too.
Horses would revolutionize communications, and beef cattle would be welcome for protein (as well as a source of good quality leather), and sheep for meat and wool. But how're aborigines with milk?
That's going to be a bit of a dampener, unless they take up cheesemaking. Most hard cheeses have very little lactose in them, so would be more suitable than milk. Hard cheeses would also keep rather better than milk in Aururia's climate, too.
Ah. So dairy cattle are out then.
What kind of meat cattle do the Dutch have? And how well would they adapt to Aurorian environmental conditions?
As a rule a cattle adapted to North Europe is going to be bad for Australia,
Oddly enough, that doesn't seem to matter all that much. The most important cattle breeds in the southern regions of modern Australia are originally from northern Europe (e.g. Beef Shorthorn from England, Angus from Scotland). These breeds were even used in northern Australia until relatively recently, although these days they're largely being replaced by more tropical breeds.
but the Dutch can introduce livestock from India and Indonesia instead. I think especially the Chicken would be popular among the Aurorians, beside the pig "the living trash can" is also a quite good animal to introduce to the Aurorians which lack a animal filling the pig niche.
Pigs are going to be tempting, I think. Chickens if they are better than domesticated ducks, which they probably are; domesticated ducks elsewhere in the world aren't usually considered as good as chickens.
What would be a realistic timetable for animal introductions?
A century through some of the first contact areas s going to have them as intergrated part of their agricultural packet in 50 years.
I would think cats would arive on the first ship. I wounder how they will fare with domesticated quolls?
They and rats are going to be serious pests.
They will be, although if Aururia can be spared foxes and rabbits, the continent will be so much better off.
Goats would also do quite well and are easier to transport than cattle
Yes goats is also a animal which likely will be imported to Australia, and if the Dutch conquer anything of Australia they will likely also introduced the camel.
Hmm. Goats never really took off in OTL Australia. I'm not sure why. Maybe it was just British pecularities and cultural preferences.
The camel, though, will be a winner.
A fall in food prices, eh? Now, while I know the Little Ice Age was hitting hard and that the Netherlands itself tended to use farmland for export products, but could we see a fall in Baltic influence (Poland as a major grain exporter, and Demark as controller of access to the Baltic) as demand for food imports and Baltic goods fall?
Yes we say something of the same in OTL, in this it going to be even worse, especially with the introduction of Aurorian crops to South Europe,
Yup. I think that while northern Europe is hardly going to be a backwater, southern Europe is going to be comparatively much more important economically, culturally etc than it was in OTL.
of course another effect will push this the other way, and that the lack of American timber with a lower population there, which will make Norvegian and to lesser extent Swedish timber even more important, through the effect of that could be that New Amsterdam survive, simply to make the Dutch less dependent on Danish goodwill to gain access to timber.
Timber will be interesting, and it certainly sounds as if North America will be a lesser source for a while. New Amsterdam will be even more interesting, if it survives, although I'm not sure whether it will attract enough settlers to be viable in the longer term.
Pig and camels thrive here - pig hunting is unregulated, as they're a pest. IIRC we're the only place camels have been introduced where they've gone and formed a stable population. I could see camels being preferred over horses for communications precisely because of their superior durability and adaptation to the environment.
For the interior, camels are certainly going to be so much more use. Still, horses were extremely useful in the more well-watered coastal regions, so I'd expect both of them to find a niche.
Cows are going to be more of a problem - unless the Dutch (or whoever) brings across the right breeds, they won't last. Brahmans seem to be very common here atm due to their arid adaptions.
Depends which part of the continent, as I understand it. Brahmans and other breeds from India and related regions have been replacing European breeds in the northern half of Australia, but I think that European breeds have survived reasonably well in the southern half.
I would think the Dutch might bring in donkeys before camels. While not as good as camels in arid conditions,donkeys are no slouches either.
Hmm. Donkeys never became important in OTL Australia, maybe because horses and then camels were preferred. Which doesn't mean that donkeys wouldn't be useful, but they might be treated as secondary in their uses.
Well, one big difference for Europe is that the Thirty Years War is likely to be called early on account of one out of every five soldiers from all the combatants dropping dead.
This is something I've wondered about. Will it end the 30YW or just put it on hold for a couple of years until finances recover somewhat? The Black Death, which hit a lot harder than the Aururian plagues could ever do, didn't end the Hundred Years War, although fighting certainly slowed down for a while until both sides built up their finances.
As I understand it, wars during this era weren't really limited by manpower as much as by finances. Armies could be recruited; mercenaries were always around. Fer'instance, as long as Gustavus Adolphus had French gold to pay his wages bill, he could always recruit enough soldiers/mercenaries, even when Sweden itself didn't have that much in the way of manpower.
So the question may be more how badly will the combatants' economies be hit, rather than how badly will their manpower be hit.
While the population loss in Germany might be about as bad as in OTL, the infrastructure won't be quite as shredded.
Certainly, if the 30YW
does end earlier, then better infrastructure will help in the long run.
Similarly, the Qing might not get to finish conquering China when the epidemics bring a temporary halt to that invasion. The Ming will also be getting hit by disease, of course, but they will at least get a breather from outside invasion to try to rebuild their legitimacy as a government. Although the question of who gets blamed for the epidemics will play merry hell with the whole "Mandate of Heaven" thing.
Excellent point. I hadn't really looked into Chinese history of this period, but come to think of it, a China divided between Qing and Ming (at least for a while) could play out in interesting in ways.
Japan is also probably going to have some fun times; depending on just how long it takes for the epidemics to hit them, Tokugawa rule will either collapse or be weakened (especially in the extremities, such as Hokkaido and Kyushu) due to lack of manpower to keep an eye on potentially rebellious daimyo.
Hmm. I don't know much of Japanese history, but how well-established are the Tokugawa by c. 1625? The full seclusion laws haven't happened yet, although I don't know whether they'd be likely to go ahead ITTL.
The Ottomans might even take a different route here. Their traditional European enemies are all going to be weakened, so there won't be as much of a threat from their western and northern borders. On the other hand, the Ottomans are going to be hit just as hard by the Aururian Mortality, and therefore won't be able to take advantage of that. Under those circumstances, reasserting themselves in the Indian Ocean (especially with an entire new continent of potential riches, slaves, converts, etc.) would be considered a more feasible venue in which to increase Ottoman power and wealth.
The Ottomans may well turn to the Indian Ocean, but if so I'm not sure that Aururia would be the target. It's rather a long way away, and I'd have though that India was more attractive (supporting Muslim rulers, and rather more sources of wealth) and maybe East Africa.
Of course, by this point the Ottomans would have to push past the Portuguese, Dutch, English, and maybe even the Persians. Maybe they could do it, but I'm not sure.
In Aururia itself, one of the big differences between this contact and the American one (and one I don't think has been mentioned yet) is the existence of a major trading network throughout the continent. And more importantly, a seaborne one. It seems likely that the eastern nations are at a minimum going to have heard some rumors of strange outlanders appearing in the West before the Europeans actually get there, courtesy of the Nangu and any strange new items they might be selling in the eastern bazaars. And the longer the Dutch are preoccupied with the inevitable chaos in the Atjuntja Empire, the longer the East has to prepare.
The trading network has pluses and minuses. It will give the eastern kingdoms advance warnings, but it may also give them measles, smallpox and tuberculosis. It may also mean that the Dutch are
more tempted to explore further east because they know that certain valuable goods come from there.
The other fun item I can think of, of course, is the Pliri faith. Had the Europeans encountered any faiths aside from Islam in OTL that might respond to conversion attempts by converting right back at them?
The Pliri faith is going to have some interesting times ahead. Although I don't expect it to became a major world religion, as certain references have already suggested, I don't expect the faith to remain completely confined to Aururia either.
Actually, the Ottomans will be getting a major boost from the Aururian crop package they're about to get. It will make their land much more productive, while at the same time reducing the number of people needed to work the land. Now, a big chunk of their population is going to die, but they're going to recover faster than any of the European powers.
Always assuming that the Ottomans take up Aururian crops, that is. I don't know how receptive they will be. As I mentioned earlier in this post, takeup of new crops was far from automatic. The adoption (or lack thereof) of some New World crops is telling. Maize and potatoes are both higher-yielding than wheat, but potatoes took quite a while to spread through Europe, and maize
still hasn't been taken up in a lot of areas where it's suitable.
The quickest region to take up New World crops seems to have been Africa. Portugal was also reasonably quick. I have no idea how long the Ottomans took to adopt New World crops.
Right, so the current list of things resulting from Aururian exports to the Old World might include:
-More powerful Ottoman Empire
-More powerful United Provinces
-Possible surviving Southern Ming
-No Industrial Revolution or the same Industrial Revolution with a smaller supply and demand
-NEO-MONGOL EMPIRE YES
-Improved agriculture overall in the Old World with the introduction of hardy Aururian crops.
Anything I miss?
At least one potential new Great Power in a rather unexpected place, but apart from that, not much.
Oh, and a couple of Aururian cash crops that will be revealed over the next couple of posts, and which will have some odd butterflies on the colonisation of North America.
This will be fdugingly rock !!!
But I think that the Hans would be having easier access to Aururian crops when they've arrived in Chinese ports for the first time, wouldn't they ?
Depends. Aururian crops will probably spread principally along the Dutch trading networks, at least to start with. Maybe with a side order of Portuguese or English, depending on those nations' trading relations with the VOC. So South Africa is going to be an early starter, Persia likewise. I'm not sure how long they will take to spread to China by trade, or how culturally receptive the Chinese will be to new crops.
I was thinking of that too, and beside the fact that the infrastructure won't be destroyed the loss of life will be much more equal spread rather than North Germany, Pfalz and Lorraine almost depopulated, leading to a faster recovery, and stonger states in North Germany. Of course other effect will be that like in the Black Plague that we get some consolidation of the principalities with the death of a significant amount of the Princes and inherience of the survivers. At last even with a 20% loss rate it mean less dead than in the 30 Years War.
Good point about stronger northern Germany, and certain other regions. I'm not sure whether the 30 YW will end earlier, though. The effects of Aururian diseases may simply mean a few years lull in the fighting, rather than bringing it to an end.
The consolidation of the principalities will be interesting, too. I forget how many which the HRE had at this point, but it was certainly a lot. I may need to use some random numbers to work out which noble lines get extinguished by the diseases, and how many principalities get consolidated.
The Ottomans will be strengthen overall with the introduction of the crops, but their problem are that so too will the Spains, and the Austrians won't be weaken by the 30 Years War, leaving the Ottomans with more stronger hostile neighbours.
Unless of course the 30YW simply pauses for a few years, and the Austrians and Spanish continue to bleed more slowly.
The other thing about the Ottomans is that they have a much bigger area of land which is suitable for the new crops. That may mean that their population ends up growing much larger, even if Spain also has its own population increase.
I disagree tSpain and Italy will recover everybit as fast leading the Mediterranean Sea to staying the primary battleground between the Habsburg and Ottomans. Someone which will quite hard hit by the Blague is Mahgreb with it high urbanisation, so I think Spain will do it best to spread their rule there. Where the Ottomans has been primary strengthen is in the Black Sea with a weaken Russia which won't get the benefit of the new crops.
The Mediterranean is certainly going to play a much larger role. I'm still not sure where the Ottomans will be likely to look, though, and who will be their most important rival. The odd thing is that large parts of Persia are also quite well-suited to Aururian crops, so that might lead to some problems over there.
Stronger North German states and likely some consolidation of the estates of Polish nobles either leading to split up of Poland into smaller states, or a smaller more streamlined Sejm, and of course a stronger Spain.
Relatively stronger North Germany is going to be important, although South Germany is also probably going to do better
if the 30YW grinds to a halt. One possibility for ending the war early is that a weakened France may decide that it will never intervene directly... which may bring the other powers to the negotiating table earlier. That may also mean that Spain holds onto Roussillon, at least for a while longer.
The fate of Poland is also going to be intriguing. Not only may they have estate consolidation, they're also facing an Ottoman Empire which is relatively stronger.
Or, maybe, something like Keith Roberts's Pavana? Steam cars without large-scale industrial production (but with highly developed handicraft)...
This is sounding more and more tempting. Steampunk has a certain attraction.
In the Cape Colony (OTL) the Dutch firstly tried to introduce their own breeds, but failed, and they began to selectively breed African cattle, which had proved successful. In Aururia they would not have native cattle to experiment with, so two possibilities remain - complete failure (especially probable in absence of conquered/leased lands and with settler colony non-existing or destroyed by the Aururians) or introduction of the African/Indian breeds. When did the British introduced the Brahman cattle? I assume, this occurred some time after beginning of the settlement of Australia.
Oddly enough, the cattle which were brought with the First Fleet in 1788 were Cape breeds, which the Fleet picked up on its way over. They didn't do very well at all, and were largely replaced by northern European breeds in the nineteenth century. The importation of Brahman cattle was much more recent, and even today European breeds are still used in some parts of the continent.
First hit of the Aururian plagues will, in all probability, lead to temporary lull in the hostilities (not only because of mortality among the mercenaries, but due to destruction of their food base (especially if the epidemics will hit in tilling or harvest time), and incapacitation of the sick soldiers). But peace is unlikely before exhaustion of Catholic manpower/financial resources/will to fight. After all, Black Death of 1348 didn't stop the Hundred Years' War permanently (or even for a decade), and that plague was worse than all the Aururian diseases combined would be.
I agree. The plagues alone won't stop the 30YW. What might stop it earlier is if some of the Protestant powers (or Catholic France, later) decide not to intervene at all. That may bring things to an earlier halt.
On the other hand, if the Protestant powers would be hit by the plagues earlier than the Catholic ones (e.g., the Dutch sailors bringing the diseases home, and spreading them firstly to 'friendly powers' - Sweden, England, North German principalities), then the Habsburgs will have very short advantageous period (before their own countries and overseas dominions will suffer the same or worse fate), with Catholic armies larger and healthier than 'Heretical' ones, and financial resources less available to the Protestants because of disarray caused by the plague in Amsterdam.
There won't be that much of a window of opportunity, I suspect. These are airborne diseases with a sizable incubation period; they will spread very quickly throughout Europe, I think.
Likely, but, on the other hand, dense, underfed and contacting with the Europeans population of the Chinese coastal provinces will be hit harder and earlier than the half-nomadic Manchus and, especially, Mongols (living far from sea and completely nomadic).
Even if the Ming are hit relatively worse, I suspect that both sides will be inclined to pause for a few years thanks to the effects of the diseases. Whether that will matter much in the long run... well, I'm not sure, to be honest.
It could be very interesting - surviving Christian principalities of Kyushu and Ain tribes of Hokkaido. However, namely the Japanese Christians will be hit by the plagues early and hard, due to their intense contacts with the European sailors. So, we have, on the one hand, weakened Shogunate (after all, the Dutch were the Tokugawa's allies, and even Ieyasu himself could become one of the first victims of the new diseases), but on the other hand, relatively worse situation in Kyushu, with corresponding claims of non-Christian priests that the plague is caused by the gods'/bodhisattvas' wrath, and ensuing religious disturbances.
Hmm. Anyone feeling knowledgeable about Japanese history? I'm really not sure how this is likely to play out.
Indian Ocean sea lanes, which in OTL were controlled by the Portuguese and (after 1600) the Dutch, could become in this TL more open for the Muslim navies, simply because of high mortality among the (not very numerous) European crews and garrisons. The lure of Aururia will be great, though; it could attract to the new continent and adjacent archipelagoes even more Christians than its plagues will kill, and, consequently, relative position of the Ottomans in the Indian Ocean could become even weaker than it was in OTL.
In terms of disease hitting European crews and garrisons, I don't actually think that will matter too much. As long as there are profits to be made (which there are), the Dutch, Portuguese etc can probably recruit more sailors and soldiers. Of course, the lure of Aururia will be strong to some Europeans, but that said, there's still large profits to be made in the East Indies and India.
They have met Buddhists, certainly, but I don't know of any attempts of the yellow-robed monks to convert their black-robed colleagues (or their flock) before the 20th century.
I don't know of many Buddhist conversion attempts toward European Christians during this period either. (Leaving aside cases like the response to Japanese Christians). The Pliri will be in an odd position; I don't know if they'll win many converts, but I certainly expect them to try.
And weakened Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which will be hit as hard as the Ottomans, but will not benefit from the Aururian crops. Well, with all Northern neighbors weakened, Turkey could redirect its efforts to the Mediterranean or try to conquer the PLC and Muscovy (or, at least their southernmost provinces.
Hmm, it sounds more and more like the Ottomans have some choices to make. I wonder which way they are likely to go...
Spain itself, as well as its Italian dominions, will be recovering fast thanks to new crops and reduced drain on its resources by the Thirty Years War (which will be downsized, if not ended for good), but Spanish overseas colonies, includind silver-rich Peru, will be hit very hard, and Spanish Netherlands will suffer from diseases, while not having agricultural productivity boost. It's hard to make correct estimate of net loss/gain for the Spanish Empire as whole from the 'de Houtmanian exchange', but I'd guess they will find themselves in the long run with more soldiers (relatively speaking, of course; there could be less Spanish soldiers than in OTL, but Northern Europe manpower will be hit even harder and recovering slower), and less money. What could it mean? Probably, more aggressive Spain, but also stronger Cortes, and more merchant-friendly Spanish government.
Spain is going to be in an unusual position, certainly. Their New World possessions may turn out to be less profitable (especially slaving colonies) due to a reduced Atlantic slave trade and smaller European market for their produce. As well as the points you've mentioned, depending on how the 30YW ends up ATL, Spain may end up with a different set of possessions even within Europe. They may or may not keep Roussillon, or the Spanish Netherlands, etc.
