Lands of Red and Gold
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mojojojo
Gone Fishin'
I just posted an article on this very subject https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=220714
Thank you for that! I'll put my replies to it here rather than there, as here is what we care about--though the article is good stuff for any time-line author to be sure. But my reply relates to how it relates to LoRaG.
In the context of LoRaG--Uh Oh!
Because while I have great confidence that the Navaho-Diné (note that the Apaches are related, and also call themselves "Diné") will indeed adopt Aururian crops fast and effectively--various others, notably the New Spanish hegemony in New Mexico, and later Anglos (if any filter through from Alleghenia that is) or Anglos coming from the West, or others, coming from that direction (basically from California) can also use these crops in the Diné lands, so their lands will be that much less unattractive to these various claim-jumpers from overseas.
So it's a question of whether they can start recovering from the one-two punch of both Eurasian and Aururian diseases soon enough to be strong enough to persuade these various intruders to negotiate with them rather than simply try to sweep them aside.
So it may be they will do less relatively well than OTL. Then again--with the Anglo colonies and successor states more marginal, with people like the Congxie interposed and serving as sort of cultural and political mediators--the Anglo states in particular are going to be much less of a demographic/political steamroller than OTL. Meanwhile there might well be others--English or Anglo-Atlantic state colonists descending on them from the West via California, various Aururians coming in directly, the possibility that Mexico (which may or may not continue as Spanish-ruled New Spain, but I'd bet that at the very least the Mexicans wind up negotiating much higher status within the Spanish system, and more likely do split off into independence) itself will be more expansive and stronger at least locally than OTL, heck maybe there will be expansive Chinese or what have you--they might face any number of invasive societies.
But yeah--to calm down a bit, even if their parts of the Southwest are considerably more attractive to settlers than OTL, they still won't be as attractive as lands that bracket it to the east, west, and even south. So all these potential invaders would have to be pretty land-grabby to pressure the Diné when to get there they have to first go through much more hospitable lands! It could still happen. But again I think the Navaho would have some diplomatic leverage to use, if they have recovered from the demographic tailspin at that point.
It does seem that others still hold to the impression I have had from various sources, that the Navaho do indeed owe some of their relative robustness to cultural traits that happen to have pre-adapted them, as it were, to reacting relatively cannily to the challenges invasive foreigners posed them, including getting savvy to politics within the foreign systems.
It may be though that we have to give much weight to their mere good fortune in being, as noted above, situated so they had some time and distance to react and assimilate elements of the foreign cultures on their own terms. It could be that others elsewhere might have handled things just as effectively if they weren't simply overwhelmed by too much impact coming in too fast, and if changes ITTL mean they are more exposed to a greater magnitude of "challenge" they too might go under. However, while I suspect Aururian crops may make them more accessible, as I said the overall trends (due mainly to the Europeans themselves reeling under the impact of Aururian disease) may offset that with an attenuated, and delayed, and perhaps diversified (hence more scope for divide-and-survive politics/diplomacy) foreign impact.
So for their sake I kind of hope it's a wash, and that they get exposed heavily and early to the witches' brew of diseases at the same time as they get the crops (or a bit later) so that by the 20th century they have largely regained their balance. Because I do think they have a bit more time and impacts that OTL were happening by the mid-19th century might be delayed about half a century, so "20th century" corresponds to their experiences in the late 19th OTL.
What's going on in North America, btw?
Quite a lot, depending on what period you're talking about.
If you're talking about the 'present' of the TL (roughly 1630-1640), there's been some minor colonial rearrangements and some rather major epidemics as Marnitja and blue-sleep reach the New World.
If you're talking about the *19th and *20th centuries, an awful lot is going on, and part of that is Alleghania learning that some people are easier to oppress than others.
Likewise, but unfortunately the world can be an ugly place at times.
Merci.
The people to be most worried about would probably be whoever settles *Texas or *California. While New Spain will probably have a higher Euro-descended population, *New Mexico will be low on the list of places they'd settle en masse.
The crucial question here is whether the Navaho-Diné are closely connected enough with OTL Mexico to have been receiving waves of Old World diseases since 1520. If they are, then they will be part of the groups of New World peoples who have developed some immunity to epidemics, and in turn they won't be hit worse, in proportion, than Eurasians.
On the other hand, if they are isolated enough - particularly if the first wave of epidemics lowers the population density in between them and the Valley of Mexico - then they may be more vulnerable to Aururian diseases. In which case, yes, things will go worse for them.
This much is safe to say: the Navaho are quite safe from eastern seaboard Anglo (Alleghania and others) expanding west. The initial settlements there are lower, and there's more peoples in the way. The concern is colonists coming from closer.
Californians moving east are certainly one possibility, and I can mention that California ITTL is going to be quite a different place to what it was in OTL. That said, while the possibility of eastward Californian expansion does exist, I think that the *Californians would have other preferred targets.
Mexico is also a possibility, but given that Mexico was fairly underpopulated in OTL, I'd probably see population booms elsewhere in *Mexico as more likely. As you point out, the Aururian crops can grow in plenty of other places besides *New Mexico.
*Texas is probably going to be the main interaction between the Navaho-Diné and the wider world. I don't want to go too much into the details of what happens in *Texas, but I can mention that the Spanish (or the *Mexican successors) invite colonists into Texas. A particular kind of colonists, from a society which has itself been transformed by Aururian crops, and which is having a population boom and land shortages at home. These people will love *Texas.
Of course, *Texas is big, and still relatively empty, when the new colonists get there. The big open spaces of western Texas will be of more uses for other things (that go baaaa, mostly) and this will serve as a buffer of sorts - the colonists will mostly be settling along the coast. The Navajo don't necessarily have anything to worry about even from *Texans.
This is probably the clincher. No matter how attractive *New Mexico might be, there are other lands in the way, which are equally if not more attractive.
Well, it's no secret from earlier posts in this TL that North America is not a case of United States uber alles.
Yes, although Mesoamerican and Andean peoples will do notably better than the rest.
I wonder who the Pacific Islanders (other that the Maori, who we have already been given some info on)will do in this TL
Hard to say. Euro colonisation has probably been delayed a bit (diseases, again), but there's nothing to say that the Maori or some Aururian peoples won't do some colonisation of their own.
mojojojo
Gone Fishin'
I know that the Australians of this TL breed wooly coated dogs a a source of fabric, here is an interesting article about a Native American tribe that did the same https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=221696
Spanish Jews?
I'm guessing Sicilians, from what Jared's intimated about the population of Sicily in other places.
Of course, if it's late enough in TTL, even having Muslims settle in Texas isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
IOTL, a population of Spanish (most of which seem to have been conversos, judging by recent genetic studies) did end up in New Mexico really early (1598). That said, the colony was essentially abandoned due to the Pueblo Revolt from 1670 to 1692, with colonists retreating to El Paso. It's possible that in light of the plagues a similar dynamic will happen a few decades earlier.
It's hard to avoid making thinking of bad puns when reading that story... and the authors certainly didn't avoid it. (Although they missed 'best to leave sleeping dogs lie').
Spanish Jews?
Bingo! (Well, Sicilians and others.)
As has been mentioned previously, Sicily is going to adopt Aururian crops early and vigorously, and go through a large population boom. This will have a variety of consequences, particularly in itself, but one of the more notable ones will be waves of Sicilian migrants to a variety of places. Some of the Sicilians will be invited into *Texas... and as Bart would say after adding flesh-eating ants, the rest writes itself.
It's not impossible, but would mean rather a large change of attitude in Spanish culture, to say the least.
That population would of course be there from 1598, that being before the effective PoD for the wider world. And yes, the effects of Aururian diseases may well lead to an *Pueblo Revolt decades earlier. Which leads to an interesting question: in those circumstances, with lower population of their own and knowing that there's no gold there (the original reason they settled the place), how soon would the Spanish trouble themselves to come back?
Hnau
Banned
Interesting, an Italian Texas... you know, come to think of it I think southern Italians would love the climate of Texas. Interesting. As always, Jared, I anxiously await further developments. What I am most excited to see: continued clash of civilizations in Aururia, of course, how Aururian crops affect Buenos Aires and the rest of Argentina, the Ottoman adoption of new crops, and the alternate colonization of the eastern seaboard of North America. I'd love to see an update focusing heavily on alternate technological developments, both in Aururia (adapting to European tech) and elsewhere.
How Sicilian would the resulting culture be? Will it be similar to Argentina, where it's the predominant ethnicity but everyone shifts to Spanish? Or will they be a cohesive enough group settling a sparsely populated area that they'll retain their ethnic identity? IIRC the main reason the Argentines don't speak Italian today is because the groups which settled there spoke such divergent dialects that Spanish was as good a common language as any. But if ITTL people are from mostly one region of *Italy, it will be a different matter.
Keep in mind that at least half the population seems to have been Sephardic Jews, who kept on to their culture well enough that some modern-day people in the region have pictures of their grandparents wearing yarmulkes and remember having seders in all but name. So those families still have a really strong interest in getting the hell out of Spanish control ASAP.
As an aside, it will be very interesting to hear more about the Ottoman Empire. I have a few ideas about what will happen here.
1. Although the initial plagues will happen everywhere, I tend to think that the Ottomans will be in a rush to keep their frontier areas more heavily populated. Which means if depopulated areas like Banat creep up, I could see them encouraging whole ethnic groups to move into the Balkans. So we could end up with more Muslims in Europe than IOTL.
2. At the same time, the Aururian crop package is going to revolutionize the Ottoman Empire. Virtually the entire populated area can grow at least some of the the crops. and the Levant, Northern Iraq, and Southern Turkey (essentially the old fertile crescent) ideal. This will make the center of gravity of the Empire drift more into Asia, and provide big increases in manpower, and economic activity, over time.
3. Still, the Ottomans are in a pickle. Since they gained revenue mainly by Jizyah, having a higher population in the Middle East isn't going to be ideal, as it means more infrastructure needs but less tax revenue to pay for it. So I wonder if the Ottomans will, one way or another, try and boost the Christian population in the region. Perhaps by providing special protections against proselytization to groups like the Armenians, Assyrians, and Marionites (similar to the essential ban in Europe), in exchange for loyalty. Perhaps even actively recruiting Christian and Jewish migrants from Europe.
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Hnau
Banned
You know, history could diverge quite rapidly in the Ottoman Empire. One interesting point is that it is probable that Marnitja and Blue-Sleep will hit the Ottomans at the same time instead of in different waves. Marnitja hits Amsterdam in 1627, right? And spreads from there. Blue-sleep starts from Timor and burns through Asia to Europe, hitting the continent in 1631. It is probable that Blue-sleep will break out in the Ottoman Empire before it strikes Europe, and that Marnitja will break out in the Ottoman Empire later. 1629-1630 could see the arrival of both diseases at the same time.
It wasn't a very good time for the Ottoman Empire to be dealing with such pandemics either. The period 1623 to 1632 is described as a time of anarchy and corruption. Sultan Murad IV, a strong, brutal leader, would be only 17 in 1629 and true power remained with his relatives. It is possible that if the diseases kill some of his family members and leave him alone that he could assert his own power in 1630 rather than in 1632 and begin to re-establish the supremacy of the Sultan. If he falls to one of the diseases, though, the anarchy is only going to get worse. Persia was invading Iraq, northern Anatolia was facing revolts, and there was widespread insurrection among the Janissaries. Murad IV already had his hands full, how will he deal with even more chaos?
What could help his cause is if his enemies are more weakened by the diseases than he, so we'd need to see how Persia, Iraq are affected, also the Caucasus. Even if Murad IV leads successful military campaigns as in OTL, he died very early, in 1640 at the age of 27. Even if he avoids the Aururian plagues he could die much sooner due to the more dangerous conditions, leaving the throne to his mad brother Ibrahim I (assuming he avoids the plagues and also a possible execution order from the Sultan preventing him to succeed to the throne).
Jared, want to tell us which characters in this drama will live and die from the plagues? Don't forget Kosem, the powerful mother-regent of both Murad during his minority and Ibrahim afterward. We could also probably butterfly away the rise of Turhan Hatice, the next powerful mother-regent, as she was sold into slavery and then gifted to Kosem as a concubine around 1640 at the age of 12... what are the chances such a girl will find her way into such a place of power given so many butterflies?
Man, an update solely based on the Ottoman Empire would be awesome. I wonder when the Aururian crops would begin to be utilized there. Red yams were first planted in Portugal in 1648, right? That could mean they spread to parts of the Ottoman Empire throughout of the 1650s and the 1660s.
It wasn't a very good time for the Ottoman Empire to be dealing with such pandemics either. The period 1623 to 1632 is described as a time of anarchy and corruption. Sultan Murad IV, a strong, brutal leader, would be only 17 in 1629 and true power remained with his relatives. It is possible that if the diseases kill some of his family members and leave him alone that he could assert his own power in 1630 rather than in 1632 and begin to re-establish the supremacy of the Sultan. If he falls to one of the diseases, though, the anarchy is only going to get worse. Persia was invading Iraq, northern Anatolia was facing revolts, and there was widespread insurrection among the Janissaries. Murad IV already had his hands full, how will he deal with even more chaos?
What could help his cause is if his enemies are more weakened by the diseases than he, so we'd need to see how Persia, Iraq are affected, also the Caucasus. Even if Murad IV leads successful military campaigns as in OTL, he died very early, in 1640 at the age of 27. Even if he avoids the Aururian plagues he could die much sooner due to the more dangerous conditions, leaving the throne to his mad brother Ibrahim I (assuming he avoids the plagues and also a possible execution order from the Sultan preventing him to succeed to the throne).
Jared, want to tell us which characters in this drama will live and die from the plagues? Don't forget Kosem, the powerful mother-regent of both Murad during his minority and Ibrahim afterward. We could also probably butterfly away the rise of Turhan Hatice, the next powerful mother-regent, as she was sold into slavery and then gifted to Kosem as a concubine around 1640 at the age of 12... what are the chances such a girl will find her way into such a place of power given so many butterflies?
Man, an update solely based on the Ottoman Empire would be awesome. I wonder when the Aururian crops would begin to be utilized there. Red yams were first planted in Portugal in 1648, right? That could mean they spread to parts of the Ottoman Empire throughout of the 1650s and the 1660s.
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Absence of Turhan Hatice as the regent could have great effect on Eastern European history in 1650s through 1670s, as she was of Ruthenian descent, and some researchers think that Ottoman support for various Ruthenian Cossack warlords in the period was at least partly caused by the regent's own pro-Ruthenian attitudes.
That is, the Ottomans would support anti-Polish and (later) anti-Russian revolts, Turhan or no Turhan, as it was in their interests to do, but the scale of this support might be different.
Of course, Jared wrote earlier that history of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (and its Ruthenian provinces) would be changed profoundly by effects of Aururian plagues (some princes would die, and other would start their reign earlier), so it might be that there would be no Great Revolt of 1648 as we know it, with corresponding changes in Ottoman policies towards the region.
Awesome history
Just wanted to pop in and say hi. I'm working on a similar project (http://bensen-daniel.deviantart.com/gallery/27912685) and one of my beta-readers recommended I read Red and Gold. I'm about halfway through it and I love it. Especially the ecology. And the fictionalized personal stories, which I hope I'll see more of.
Just wanted to pop in and say hi. I'm working on a similar project (http://bensen-daniel.deviantart.com/gallery/27912685) and one of my beta-readers recommended I read Red and Gold. I'm about halfway through it and I love it. Especially the ecology. And the fictionalized personal stories, which I hope I'll see more of.
Yes, I thought it would be appropriate. And, of course, it's ideal for many Aururian crops too, for whatever that's worth.
These will probably all be covered in time, but not too soon. Partly because some of them will take lots of research, but mostly because I want to concentrate on the "present" of the TL for a while.
I'll have to think about this one. I'm still really not sure what the pace of technology will be ITTL, since there are factors that might both accelerate it or decelerate it.
There will be at least a plurality of Sicilians settling large parts of *Texas. I'd expect that they would retain their language and significant parts of their culture, although I've still not finally settled on that.
More from Sicily than anywhere else, although there will of course be a mixture. Of course, ITTL Sicilian is something of a prestigious dialect anyway, so there will be strong temptation for other Italian settlers to learn it.
Hmm. They may have that motivation, but would it take actual Spanish military power to reconquer the place? Spain's priorities will probably be elsewhere.
Hmm. If more Muslims means lower tax revenues, this is also a problem. Which way would that one go?
The other point which makes the Balkans more complex is that the only areas which are really spared from the worst of the Aururian plagues are isolated villages and out of the way places, which the initial wave of the plagues may well pass by. Especially if the plague goes through in winter (when a lot of travel shuts down). Sure, secondary waves may still hit some of those regions later, but those waves won't spread as well anyway since a lot of the potential carriers are already immune.
Some areas which may thus be spared from the worst of the plagues would include some of the highland areas of the Balkans... which are more heavily Christian than the (relatively more) Muslim lowlands. So there may be some post-plague push of Christian highlanders into the lowlands in the Balkans. Not sure how that could end up.
Certainly the potential is there. Although Greece will also do very well. What intrigues me is that - as per some previous discussions on this topic - there are some areas where the Aururian crops can be grown, but which were in territory claimed by some of the various nomadic groups. Just because the crops can be grown in those regions doesn't mean that they will... if the nomads have anything to say about it. I'm not sure how this will go.
If post-plague Europe suffers from more out-breaks of anti-Semitism, might an active Jewish homeland in Palestine be one possibility the Ottomans consider? Especially since Poland, which would otherwise be an attractive option, is unfortunately likely to be the victim of an "everybody hates Poland" alliance (*Deluge).
Marnitja does indeed hit the Ottomans around 1629, although it doesn't come via Europe. Or, at least, not just via Europe. It spread from Madagascar up the African coast, hitting Egypt in 1628 and spreading to Mecca in time for the hajj in 1629, and from there it was carried more or less everywhere in the Muslim world.
Blue-sleep also burns through the Ottoman Empire around 1630. Not quite simultaneous, but not long after. A nasty time to be alive, for those who survive.
I hadn't worked out the fates of every prominent Ottoman, but I'd already calculated that Murad IV survives apparently without even contracting the diseases. (He did actually catch them, but so mildly that he showed no visible symptoms.) It may help his political position to claim that he was clearly protected by God, since the malady had no effect on him.
Gazi Ekrem Hüsrev Pasha does die of Marnitja in 1629 - although I'm not sure whether that really helps.
Badly, I expect. Or, at least, dealing with internal problems will probably keep him from showing much interest in the world beyond the Ottoman borders, except for the immediate problem of Persia.
In Persia, Abbas I actually survives Marnitja (which reached Persia by sea in 1628), and then died of natural causes, like OTL in January 1629. His son Safi survived both the plagues. Of course, losing a large part of their military manpower doesn't do the Persians much good, but they do still hold Baghdad.
For Ibrahim I, he avoids the plagues. Whether he'd avoid Murad IV's execution order is another question, but I'd need to look more into that to work it out.
Kösem survives. Turhan will almost certainly be butterflied away from power, if she survives the plagues at all.
It will probably happen at some point, but I can't promise when. I need much more information about the Ottoman Empire before I can write a decent update.
I'd say that the Ottomans are more likely to get Aururian crops via the Indian Ocean than via Portugal, although of course the latter is possible as a secondary route.
The important question is whether the Ottomans get the crops as a package and with the required knowledge, or if they just get imported piecemeal. The crops will still be useful if the Ottomans just get them one by one and start using them. But they would be much more useful if the Ottomans got the whole combination of plants with the best knowledge for planting, harvesting, crop rotation, and so forth.
Some Old World peoples managed to find Aururian teachers who taught them the whole package together - the Dutch used Mutjing farmers in South Africa, while the Portuguese used Yadilli farmers in Portugal proper. If the Ottomans can find a similar group of people to help their own farming, things will be much more successful for them.
This will cause substantial changes, then, since Turhan Hatice definitely won't be ending up as regent. The Polish Question will still occupy them, but that's another story...
I'm not sure about the Great Revolt of 1648, but one thing which is certain is that Poland is going to end up with even more enemies than it had in OTL (which is an achievement), and the *Deluge is not going to be nice. At all. What the Ottomans will do during this time is something which I still need to figure out.
Glad you like it. More is coming, of course, in a variety of formats. Unfortunately, though, various life commitments (the w- word and the other w-word, plus I'm now co-authoring a non-fiction piece) means that fresh instalments don't come all that often.
This is an excellent work. Well done, sir.
You mentioned that Congxie had a founding population that was some 60%+ of Mande descent. I can't recall what time frame exactly we are looking at, but since the Mande peoples have been predominately Muslim since the 13th century, we could see a Congxie with a sizable Muslim contingent. I'm sure that Plirism will have a lot of appeal, but it seems that a syncretic Plirite Islam could develop in Congxie.
You mentioned that Congxie had a founding population that was some 60%+ of Mande descent. I can't recall what time frame exactly we are looking at, but since the Mande peoples have been predominately Muslim since the 13th century, we could see a Congxie with a sizable Muslim contingent. I'm sure that Plirism will have a lot of appeal, but it seems that a syncretic Plirite Islam could develop in Congxie.
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